**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Thanks Art! I appreciate your experience, wisdom, and time in responding.
We’re in Michigan and my student received a selection index score of 218. We’re feeling ‘on the bubble’. Could you tell us whether Michigan is considered a larger state (smaller swings) or a medium state (little more volatile) and what percentage you would apply to the likelihood of being a national merit semifinalist? Thank you!
Brad,
Michigan is relatively steady. We saw big jumps when the Michigan switch from state-funded ACTs to state-funded SATs, but that is well in the rearview at this point. The years where Michigan was at 219 were all ones where we saw high Commended cutoffs. A move to 219 is not impossible, but I consider it very unlikely — <10%. So that puts likelihood of a 218 at 90%+.
Art,
My son is sitting on a 800 Math / 700 EBRW on the SAT. I would like to enroll him in the June 1 SAT Intensive Course (so he could bump that verbal score up for the purpose of NMSC). That said, I would like that to cover only the EVRW portion of the course (at half the cost for the course). Would that be doable? (I have to enroll him by tomorrow, April 26).
Best regards,
Tsvetan
Sorry that I am just seeing this Tsevtan. Unfortunately, we do not currently offer a group class that concentrates exclusively on the ERW.
If he is a junior, then that SAT score will already be sufficient as a confirming score. If he is a sophomore looking to get ready for the fall PSAT/NMSQT, then I can appreciate why he wants to do some verbal work.
Hi, this is all new to us. My daughter got at 212 in South Dakota… I’m thinking from what I’ve read on your site that there is a high chance she will at least be a commended scholar? Thanks!
Rachael,
At minimum, your daughter will receive Commended honors. The Semifinalist cutoff for South Dakota is a wildcard. In the past it has come in as low as the Commended level and as high as 5 points above Commended. Your daughter will qualify as long as it doesn’t go higher than +4 (the Commended is 208 this year). I’d put her chances at Semifinalist at around 60-70%.
Hello, I got 218 in Illinois. Will this be enough to be a semi finalist this year?
John,
I think it’s a bit more likely that the cutoff will come in at 219 this year, but we did see 218 for the class of 2022. I’d estimate the odds of a drop at about 1 in 3. Good luck!
Hi Art,
What would be your take on the NJ cutoff – 222 vs. 223 – for the class of 2025? Yes, my kid is sitting on a 222 🙂
Tsvetan,
From what I am seeing at the national level, I think it’s a tough year for a 222 in NJ. We’ve seen a 222 twice in the last nine years. I’d put the odds a little lower this year. Maybe 15% chance of a 222, 75% chance of 223, and a 10% chance of a 224?
Hi Art,
Thank you for taking the time to answer all our queries, very grateful for that. My daughter has a 222 in CA. I want to tell her that she will make it to NMSF . Before that I need to confirm with you :-)! What do you think?
Paul,
I don’t think that you should flatly tell her that she will make it. I think her chances are very good (90-95%?), but I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes if you got it wrong. I’m just a guy on the internet, so I can take chances!
Hello, I got 206 in Missouri. Will this be enough for commended? Thank you!
Dulina,
Students did very well on this year’s edition of the PSAT, so I think the Commended cutoff will be at least 209.
Hi Art, I appreciate all of the wonderful information you provide on this website, it is very helpful as I try to help my son navigate this process. He got a 216, and we see the most likely cutoff is estimated to be 217 here in Oregon. But with the wide range from 215 to 220, I’m wondering what you would estimate the chances are he’ll make the cutoff. He’s convinced he missed the boat and I’d like to get an idea from you if he has a better chance than he thinks. Thank you for your help and expertise.
Eric,
Sorry for the delayed response. While I do include 215 in the range of possibilities, I think a drop is less likely than an increase. Oregon has not seen a 215 cutoff in at least 15 years. What makes me think it is not impossible is the fact that Oregon has been at 216 the last two years. The 216 was an uncharacteristic drop for a state that had seen an overall upward trend over the last decade. We don’t know the exact impact of the digital PSAT, so I would grade the possibility of a 215 at about 10-15%.
How likely it is for New jersey cutoff to go above 223 ?
Paddy,
It’s unlikely, but I don’t think we can rule it out completely. New Jersey has never topped 223, and the only reason Maryland hit 224 for the class of 2022 was the quirks with COVID-related cancelations and Alternate Entry. Maybe a 10% chance that something unexpected happens with top end scores due to the digital PSAT.
How likely it is for Louisiana cutoff to go above 216?
From your article it appeared 214 was anticipated but range went to 217.
Thanks
Craig
Craig,
Louisiana’s cutoff remained at 214 this year. Congratulations!
When will the article be updated with the semifinalist cutoffs?
Alan,
As soon as I receive them. 😉 NMSFs have been sent to schools. I’m hoping to start hearing from recipients, but many times we don’t start getting information until after Labor Day.
Anything leaking out for Texas (it’s 8/30 today)
No reports, yet. With such an early Labor Day, the news cycle feels like it is going to be very compressed.
Hey art, I am rachel from Florida and I got a 214, but the range you put is 215-219. After speakign to the colleague from Florida, is there a chance that 214 might work?
Thank you
Rachel
Rachel,
I’d peg the odds at 5-10%. We don’t generally see large states move 2 points in a stable year, but it has happened.
Thank you so much for the article. Do you see any possibility for the Cutoff for the state of Kansas to jump above 218?
Jack,
Kansas has seen a 219 cutoff before, but only during a year when the Commended level was quite high. I don’t foresee it going above 218 this year.
My son’s school just called some students for preparing pictures (commended to be published on the end of September local newspaper). One student has 207.
FX,
That’s interesting. I had multiple sources confirm 208 as the Commended cutoff in the spring. So either, something changed, your knowledge of the students’ scores is incomplete, or your school made a mistake.
I don’t have a question. I’m just angry that I can score a 221 selection index but because I live in Massachusetts it may as well be worthless. Why isn’t this stuff nationally standardized???? Are these not literally standardized tests???? Truly, life is not a meritocracy. It’s just so stupid.
John,
As you can imagine, this is a controversial topic. NMSC prefers to see proportional representation across the nation in order to keep the program healthy (and an unhealthy program would mean that National Merit might not be around for anyone). It does create painful situations where what side of a border you live on or whether or not your school has 30% boarders or 60% boarders can be the difference between NMSF and Commended status. Congratulations on a great score! Ultimately, your SAT score will have far more impact on your college admission chances, and you likely did quite well.
Hi Art,
Is there an estimate of when cut-off scores should be known? Also, I’m just curious how likely you think a 216 is to qualify in Kansas. My high school had ~8 people who scored in this 216+ range while we only had ~4 semifinalists last year with a class size of around 450, so I’m not sure if this is just a lucky year for us or if that suggests the cutoff is likely to increase further than estimated.
Thanks in advance,
John
John,
I hope to see initial reports in the coming days. The week after Labor Day is usually quite busy. September 11th is when NMSC removes its press embargo, meaning that papers and websites can publish lists of NMSFs. Many schools wait until that date (or even a little later) to notify students. If a 3-point jump happens, it will likely be in a smaller state such as Kansas, but I really wouldn’t read to much into the results from your school. Sounds like you’ve got a great class. I’d still put a 216 in the 80-90% range.
Hello! Have you heard anything about PA yet?
Nothing yet, PAmom.
Hello Art,
Wouldn’t a commended score of 208 indicate that the digital testing won’t significantly change the selection indices of each state? For example, if it had jumped 6 points that means EVERYONE did better on the digital test and that the selection index would jump too? Also, just curious, did you notice a trend where scores trended lower from COVID? Has it rebounded?
Scott,
You are correct that we are not going to see anything that crazy. But while a 208 is a great Selection Index, it doesn’t really push the edges of the scale (scores are in the 680-700 range). I still have some concern (simply because no data are available) about how well College Board nailed it in the 730-760 range that comes into play with some of the higher cutoffs.
It’s almost impossible to disentangle different contributors — for example, CB’s uneven test construction, student performance, and opt-in rates (who takes the test and where?). The test went through a major scaling change with the class of 2017. In the initial years, we saw a Commended cutoff at 209 – 212. While the class of 2021 still had a Commended cutoff of 209, the test scale and the results were suspect, and we saw a new low for the average NMSF cutoff and a low for the percentage of students reaching a 1400 on the PSAT. The class of 2022 needs to be thrown out, as cancellations were rampant, and many of the cutoffs were determined by SAT scores (Alternate Entry). Since then, testing rates have recovered only partially (we are still down about 200,000 juniors from pre-COVID). Which students are no longer around? California has seen a drop-off because of the UCs and CSUs moving test free. The classes of 2023 and 2024 set consecutive lows in the average NMSF cutoff (which is not an indicator that I love). Is that COVID-related learning loss or something else? We saw a higher percentage of students scoring above 1400 this year, so maybe things are getting back to “normal.” The PSAT/NMSQT is just not designed to be an effective longitudinal measure of student performance.
art chances of 214 in florida my name is samantha. thank you
Samantha,
While 214 falls outside of my projected range, it could happen. This close to score release date, I prefer to stay optimistic, since we’ll soon have an answer!
yeah so what would you put the chances for 214 in flrodia. I heard that you spoke to a colleague and they said that cutoff might drop? is that true? please let me know your thoughts on florida going as low as 214…
Samantha,
Yes, they were of the opinion that the cutoff might drop to 215. Generally, 2-point drops in large states are uncommon. I’d rate a 214 at 5-10% likelihood. I hope to be wrong.
Thank you art.
Why did the colleague believe it will go to 215? Is 214 impossible? If not, then why is it not included in your projected range?
The scores they’ve seen — which is a modest sample — lead them to estimate that Florida may notch down to a 215. I don’t think it is unlikely but not impossible that a 214 will qualify.
Any updates on the cutoffs?
Nanine,
No, things have been quiet. Schools should be receiving materials this week, but students are often not notified until after Labor Day. Some schools wait until the press release date of September 11th.
With the commended cutoff of 208, what are the chances GA goes up only one to 218?
Marie,
I’d say that there is an 85% chance of Georgia coming in at 218 or lower.
Hi. Any idea what Virginia’s cutoff is this year, or when you will know? Thank you.
Jay,
No news on any states yet. Sometimes things don’t pick up until after Labor Day. The official press release date is September 11, but hopefully we’ll get word before then.
How likely is it for Maryland to go to 223 or 224?
Aksh,
Highly unlikely. We have never seen an authentic 224 cutoff in any state. The Maryland 224 for the Class of 2022 was driven by COVID cancellations and Alternate Entry. Is a 224 possible? Yes, but it would require an anomaly in scaling, and we haven’t seen any evidence for that this year.
How likely is it for South Carolina’s cutoff to be 211 v/s your projected 213?
Parth,
What’s so tricky about South Carolina is having no good explanation for last year’s 209. Before last year, SC’s cutoff had never gone as low as 211. My Most Likely is a guess on a bounce back year, but there is a possibility that there was a more fundamental shift such as a set of important schools (or a district) opting out of the PSAT. In most years, there would be 450 – 475 combined Commended and Semifinalist students in SC. Last year, there were only about 315. This is all a long way of saying that I have very little confidence in any SC prediction. Let’s hope it stays low!
Hi Art, you don’t have to respond to this, I just wanted to say how much I appreciate your hosting this forum. My son has a 216 in Oregon so we’re holding our breath. Checking your comments section is going to be my main source of entertainment for the next week and a half! You’re the man!!! 😃
Thank you, Eric. Best of luck to your son!