Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
Every year, Compass tracks the National Merit process from the PSAT in October of junior year through the announcement of Semifinalists in September of senior year. One of the most important insights comes in April with the reveal of the national Commended cutoff. Compass has confirmed that this year’s Commended level is 208, down from last year’s 210. There has never been a year when all 50 states see lower cutoffs, but this year may come close. The Class of 2026 saw record Semifinalist cutoffs in 21 states; this year, Compass projects none. Our Semifinalist estimates have been updated with the latest information.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of each state. Compass expects this year’s cutoffs to range from 208 to 223.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
The first indication of a decline was the lower number of top scorers reported by College Board when PSAT results were released in November. College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. Only 52,400 students in the Class of 2027 earned scores in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range, down 16% from the previous year. That figure is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and is similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, the Commended cutoff was bound to decline. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
A big drop after last year’s record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why that is unlikely to happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states.
On the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Based on the results in the highest scoring states, we know that a record number of students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. For this reason, we don’t believe there will be a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
We anticipate that the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs will decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
| State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 215 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 215 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 221 | 220 - 223 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 220 - 222 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 214 | 212 - 217 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 214 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 218 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 212 | 210 - 214 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 210 | 208 - 213 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210 - 215 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 212 | 209 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 220 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 208 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 210 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 209 | 208 - 212 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 217 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 219 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 214 | 211 - 216 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 211 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 208 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside U.S. | 223 | 222 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
While the Commended cutoff is the same across the entire country, Semifinalists cutoffs vary by state. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school juniors, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
I have a 218 in Tennessee, do I have a chance?
Rohit,
I think you have an excellent chance. I think that there is a low chance that TN would jump up to a 219 cutoff.
What are your percentages for Nebraska at 211, 212, and 213?
Which one do you think has the highest odds?
Bob,
Nebraska sees fewer than 4,000 PSAT/NMSQT takers and only about 15% of juniors take the test. This leads to a lot of variability. Is there any reason to believe last year’s 210 is a better predictor than the previous year’s 212? Not really. So I’d put the odds at 210/211/212/>212 as 30%/30%/30%/10%.
What caused the change for 213 to be the most likely, but now you predict there is a 10% chance it is above 212.
Good catch, Bob. In my Most Likely calculation, I had factored in the higher cutoffs that Nebraska has seen in the past (215/216). My previous response is an assumption that the past is the past. With such a small number of students participating, the variability is always going to be a problem.
I have a 218 index in Tennessee, do you think im in the safe zone?
Jake,
I’d put it in the extremely likely zone. TN has only reached 219 in the years where we saw high scores across the board (and this year is not such a year).
Hi Art,
Do you think there’s any odds of Connecticut dropping to 220? If so, what percentage would you give it?
CTLad,
Connecticut’s cutoff moves in a tight range. I think 221 is marginally more likely. Maybe 40/60 for 220 versus 221.
Appreciate the insight!
Hopefully the trend of states almost never staying the same 3 years in a row holds true.
Hi Art,
What are the chances of National Merit SF qualification in TX with index score of 219?
Ron,
I peg 219 as the Most Likely. In a flat year (and that’s what I’d consider this year), there is about a 2/3 chance of the cutoff staying the same or lower.
My homeschooler got his NMSF confirmation letter today in AL. It doesn’t say what the cutoff was, but he had a 216 so we were expecting him to be a NMSF since 216 was at the top of the expected range in AL. Not sure if this helps you, but someone told me to let you know.
Andrea,
Congratulations to your son! Yes, the information is helpful in piecing together the picture. Thank you.
Hi Art,
Any news on Virginia just yet? What are your percentages for 219-220-221-222? Thank you so much for all the info!
No news. Virginia is another head scratcher. I don’t know why it dropped to a 10-year low last year. My assumption is that it will bounce back up, but it really depends on what caused the drop. I think we can pretty much rule out 222. So maybe 30/35/30/4, with a 1% chance of a 218.
Hi Art!
Thank you for all of the information. This article has been extremely helpful. My son has a 222 in Virginia. I feel pretty confident that he’s scored high enough to be a semifinalist based on this information. He’s already taken the SATs multiple times and is sitting at a 1540 super-scored. Will he need to take the SATs again or will his old scores be enough to move him to a finalist position? The tests were taken in 2023. Thank you so much!
Lissa,
Yes, I do think that a 222 will be high enough in Virginia.
A confirming SAT score must have a Selection Index at or above the Commended level. National Merit does not superscore, but I can’t imagine that your son’s scores wouldn’t surpass 208. Eligible dates are fall of sophomore year through December of senior year, so the 2023 scores should be fine. Also, the confirming score is pass/fail. A higher SAT score does not increase the chances of becoming a finalist.
Hi Art! Anxious in PA and sitting at a 220. Super worried it’s going to come in at 221 this year. What do you think the odds are of that happening? Thanks for all you do!
Kel,
All I can base it off of is what we have seen with large states with high cutoffs. They come in at the same cutoff or lower about two-thirds of the time. That’s a fair estimate for the odds in PA.
Hi Art,
Since Alabama has not had a jump of more than 3 points since 2017, how likely do you think that it could increase to 213 this year? (My son has a 212)
Thank you!
Paul,
Three-point jumps are unusual, but we’ll typically see 1 or 2 each year, even during stable periods. I think there is a 5-10% chance that Alabama could see a big change.
My son has a 212 also in Alabama
Nanine,
Congratulations to your son! Alabama is confirmed at exactly 212.
That’s what my daughter has, too, in Alabama. Waiting at the edge of our seats!!!
Hey art,
Any updates on florida’s cutoff? I was wondering if you could perhaps ask your colleague from florida if she recieved any news, or at least please ask if she got any updates on what she thinks the “Most Likely” cutoff is.
Thank you
Jimmy,
No updates since PSAT scores were released last year.
Good day Mr. Sawyer ,
How likely will Florida cutoff for semifinalist go beyond 218?
Sanjay,
Only the most remote of chances (I don’t like to say 0 chance unless I’m certain). You are in great shape with a 218.
Hi Art – can you give your odds for Florida? 216,217,218 and 219?
Thanks
The waiting is rough! Hoping my son’s 219 in Florida qualifies!! Thank you for all the great information and I hope the state cutoffs start trickling in.
Liz,
Although we don’t know the cutoff yet, I can confidently say that your son’s 219 will qualify. Congratulations!
Hello sir. I really appreciate the detailed information you’ve given us. I just wanted to ask, how likely would you say it is for a 218 to make the semifinalist cutoff in TX?
Omera,
On the one hand, Texas hasn’t had a cutoff that low in a dozen years. On the other hand, it’s only 1 point lower than the previous cutoff. I’d give it a 10% chance.
Hi Art,
What are the chances of NMSF in Ohio with a 218 index?
Mia,
I think you can start working on your Finalist essay. A 218 should qualify in Ohio.
Hi Art,
Thank you for your wonderful work with informing us with the ins and outs of the National Merit process. We live in Pennsylvania. What are the chances of 220 qualifying this year? Is there a big chance that it will go up to 221 or even 222 given the rise of commended cutoff? Thank you!
Hillia,
The most important information for PA is not that the Commended cutoff went up but that it went up by only 1 point. It’s quite likely that the cutoff won’t even go to 220. I don’t see any chance of a new record such as 221 or 222. If you have a 220, congratulations, future NMSF!
It seems like the informal news about different state cutoffs is coming out more slowly this year, vs 2023. Were the letters to principals mailed out later this year?
Izzi,
I’ve been wondering the same thing myself. Principals often don’t pass along information until after Labor Day, but usually we would have heard from some homeschoolers by now. AFAIK, they were mailed almost two weeks ago.
I’m a homeschool parent and haven’t received a letter yet.
Thank you, Jo. It should be arriving very soon. We are finally getting reports.
Hi Art,
Do you know if the National Merit Corporation sent the semifinalist notification letters to home school students at the same time as it sent the letters to school principals?
Crystale,
I don’t have confirmation, but that’s always how they have handled it in prior years.
Homeschooled students get individual letters to their home, yes.
How likely is Oklahoma to be 214 or higher?
Not at all likely. We’ve only seen higher OK cutoffs in years where the Commended cutoff was 211 or 212. I think the trend will hold.
223 in Massachusetts? These last few days have been nerve-wracking!
Elia,
It can be a rough wait, but I just don’t see a state hitting 224 this year.
Hello Art, is there any news about California’s cutoff? Do you think it will stay at 221 (because that’s my index right now!!) or change from last year?
Evan,
Unfortunately, no news. Based on historical cutoffs, I’d estimate 70-75% chance that it comes in at 221 or lower. Something unusual would need to happen with the scale to get a 222 cutoff in a weak year.
Hi Art, do you have any further updates? I got a 222, and I’m also from California, so I’m kind of stressed it will jump to 223. My classmates did really really well and I’m not sure how much the national trend applies to California
Daniel,
Nothing yet from CA.
Good Morning! Anxiously waiting for cutoffs to come in. How likely do you believe it is for Florida to remain at 216 this year?
Tanya,
Unfortunately, I’ve now confirmed that Florida’s cutoff moved to 217 this year.
Hi Art,
Have you heard anything out of Kansas? What do you think my chances are with a 216 index?
Patrick,
I don’t think we’ll see a 3-point increase in Kansas this year. I wouldn’t call your chances 100%, but they are certainly 90+.
Hello Art,
I have a 222 in MD, what are my chances?
Aksh,
I don’t think we can completely rule out a 223, but I’d say there is only a 5-10% chance of that happening.
Greetings,
Louisiana student here:
What do you think are the odds that my 213 score will be high enough?
Brady,
Unfortunately we saw almost no drops this year. Louisiana’s cutoff remained at 214.