
Compass has analyzed the October 2022 PSAT/NMSQT results to see how scores will impact the class of 2024’s National Merit hopes. Almost 1.5 million juniors took the qualifying exam for the National Merit Scholarship Program, and more than 54,000 of them will receive some form of honors or scholarships.
The Continued Drop-Off in High-Scorers
Students compete for National Merit honors. The more competitive the class, the higher the qualifying scores required (“cutoffs”). How well did students do this year?
In the class of 2020, more than 70,000 students scored above 1400 on the PSAT. This year the figure is under 45,000. This year looks surprisingly similar to last year. Test taker volume is still off more than 13% from pre-pandemic levels, and only 3% of those testers achieved a top score. The results in the last two years may reflect pandemic-related learning losses. Alternatively, College Board has scaled recent PSATs more unfavorably than in the past.
What is a Selection Index and why does it matter?
Instead of using PSAT scores directly, NMSC calculates a Selection Index (SI) that can be found with the online PSAT report. [For a general overview, including information on the Selection Index and the various stages of the selection process, see our National Merit FAQ.] A student scoring 720 ERW and 680 Math has an SI of 212. A student scoring 680 ERW and 720 Math has an SI of 208. On average, students scoring 1400 and above have Selection Indexes of 210 and above. That information allows us to estimate where the Commended level will fall based on how many students receive scores of 1400 or higher.
Years in which a large number of students achieved high scores are associated with Commended cutoffs above 210. Years in which fewer than 60,000 students got top marks are associated with Commended cutoffs below 210. Compass expects this year’s Commended cutoff to fall somewhere between 206 and 209, with a 207 being the “most likely.”
Commended versus Semifinalist, national versus state
The relationship between nationwide performance and Semifinalist cutoffs is more complex. The Commended cutoff is determined by looking at the top 50,000 scorers nationally. Semifinalist cutoffs, on the other hand, are determined state-by-state. The performance of students in Georgia or Michigan has no impact on the cutoffs in New York or Ohio. NMSC establishes a target number of Semifinalists based on the high school population in each state. California, for example, has a target of approximately 2,000 Semifinalists. NMSC determines the Semifinalist cutoff that comes as close as possible to producing 2,000 Semifinalists in the state. While this methodology ensures a national distribution of Semifinalists, it means that some states are far more competitive than others. The table below provides Compass’s estimates for Semifinalist cutoffs.
State | Class of 2024 (Est. Range) | Class of 2024 ("Most Likely") | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) | Class of 2021 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 210 - 215 | 212 | 212 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 208 - 213 | 209 | 210 | 208 | 212 |
Arizona | 214 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 218 | 218 |
Arkansas | 209 - 213 | 211 | 210 | 211 | 212 |
California | 219 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 221 | 221 |
Colorado | 215 - 219 | 217 | 217 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 218 - 221 | 220 | 221 | 220 | 220 |
Delaware | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 220 | 219 |
District of Columbia | 221 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 | 222 |
Florida | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 217 | 216 |
Georgia | 216 - 220 | 219 | 218 | 219 | 219 |
Hawaii | 214 - 218 | 216 | 215 | 217 | 217 |
Idaho | 212 - 216 | 214 | 215 | 214 | 214 |
Illinois | 217 - 220 | 219 | 219 | 218 | 219 |
Indiana | 213 - 218 | 215 | 214 | 215 | 215 |
Iowa | 210 - 215 | 212 | 212 | 211 | 212 |
Kansas | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 215 | 214 |
Kentucky | 210 - 215 | 212 | 212 | 212 | 214 |
Louisiana | 211 - 215 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 212 |
Maine | 210 - 216 | 213 | 215 | 211 | 213 |
Maryland | 220 - 223 | 222 | 222 | 224 | 221 |
Massachusetts | 219 - 222 | 221 | 220 | 221 | 222 |
Michigan | 215 - 219 | 217 | 218 | 217 | 216 |
Minnesota | 215 - 219 | 217 | 216 | 218 | 218 |
Mississippi | 209 - 214 | 211 | 210 | 213 | 211 |
Missouri | 212 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 214 | 214 |
Montana | 206 - 211 | 208 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
Nebraska | 209 - 215 | 211 | 212 | 210 | 213 |
Nevada | 210 - 215 | 212 | 210 | 214 | 215 |
New Hampshire | 212 - 216 | 214 | 213 | 214 | 215 |
New Jersey | 221 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 | 222 |
New Mexico | 208 - 213 | 209 | 208 | 210 | 211 |
New York | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 | 220 |
North Carolina | 215 - 219 | 217 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
North Dakota | 206 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 | 209 |
Ohio | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 209 - 213 | 211 | 211 | 210 | 211 |
Oregon | 216 - 220 | 218 | 216 | 220 | 217 |
Pennsylvania | 216 - 220 | 218 | 218 | 218 | 217 |
Rhode Island | 213 - 217 | 215 | 216 | 213 | 216 |
South Carolina | 211 - 215 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 212 |
South Dakota | 208 - 213 | 211 | 212 | 210 | 209 |
Tennessee | 213 - 218 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
Utah | 210 - 215 | 212 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Vermont | 210 - 215 | 212 | 213 | 211 | 212 |
Virginia | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 218 - 221 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 206 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 209 |
Wisconsin | 212 - 216 | 214 | 213 | 214 | 213 |
Wyoming | 206 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 | 209 |
U.S. Territories | 206 - 209 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 209 |
Studying Abroad | 221 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 | 222 |
Commended | 206 - 209 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 209 |
Consider the range
State cutoffs fluctuate from year to year — even when the Commended cutoff is unchanged! Rather than expecting that a single score is the correct estimate, Compass recommends that students consider the possibility that a state’s cutoff will fall within the estimated range. Over the last ten years, only 27% of Semifinalist cutoffs have remain unchanged from one year to the next. [Compass’s historical archive of National Merit cutoffs dating back to 2008 can be found here.]
Compass projects this year to be more stable than most because of the similar national performance compared to the class of 2023. However, in Compass’s 15-year database, there has never been a year when the majority of state cutoffs remained the same. So while “no change” is usually the best bet one can make, it’s also a bad bet. Consider, instead, the estimated range.
Small shifts can matter
It doesn’t always require a large change in testing behavior to cause a state’s cutoff to move. NMSC has no way of making fine distinctions within a state. Everyone at a given score is either a Semifinalist or not. The organization tries to come as close as possible in meeting the state’s allocation of Semifinalists (a number it does not directly report), but the nature of the Selection Index means that small variations can move a cutoff higher or lower.
Let’s assume that the target number of Semifinalists for a state is 300. If 282 students had Selection Indexes of 220 or higher and 315 scored 219 or higher, then 219 comes closest to meeting the target and will be set as the cutoff. If only 5 students at 219 had gotten 1 additional question right, there would have been 287 students at 220 or higher, and a 220 cutoff would have been chosen by NMSC. Small differences in class makeup, test form difficulty, or a few extra students guessing correctly on a problem can move the Semifinalist cutoff by a point.
When your selection unit is not a state
The Semifinalist cutoff for each of the 50 states is calculated independently. However, some cutoffs are not independent. NMSC considers boarding school students, students studying abroad, and students in the District of Columbia and in U.S. Territories or Commonwealths as separate “selection units” that follow specific rules. The net effect is that the cutoffs for the District of Columbia and students studying abroad are always set at the level of the highest state cutoff. The cutoff for U.S. Territories is set at the Commended Student level (as it is with some states). The cutoff for a boarding school is set at the highest state cutoff within the boarding school’s region.
The role of test scaling
The PSAT is usually taken by about 1.5 million students each year. The pool is (or was) large enough and consistent enough that the scores of the top 50,000 students should not change much. And yet they do. This reflects a shortcoming of the PSAT/NMSQT — it’s well-designed to measure the performance of the average student, but is more prone to error at the edges. College Board attempts to scale each PSAT so that a particular score represents the same level of achievement. In practice, we see clear examples of where College Board’s numbers are “off.” The class of 2021, for example, had an unusual test form that produced far lower cutoffs than in the previous year. Further confusing matters is that several different test forms are used each year. Compass’s analysis shows that this year’s PSAT — or at least the primary form, taken by more than 1 million students — was difficult. This difficulty can show up throughout the range of cutoffs, but lower scoring states tend to track the Commended level more than do the higher scoring states.
Updates and comments
Compass will update this post as new developments arise. We try to (eventually) answer all questions in the comments, but please be aware that comments are moderated and will not display until approved.
Hi, My son has 213 and we are from Missouri, what are the chances to qualify as semifinalist?
Sree,
This year — nationally, as least — looks to be shaping up like last year. That would be good news go your son, as Missouri’s cutoff was 213. However, states don’t always follow the national trend, and MO came in at 214 in the two previous years. I’d say his chances are 50/50.
Hi! I took the 2024 PSAT in the state of Louisiana. I got an index of 212 even though the cutoff is expected to be 213. Do I have a chance of making the cutoff? If I do, is there any further steps that I need to take? Thank you! Also, if I barely make the cutoff, will that affect my chance of making it to become a finalist?
Sam,
Louisiana was at 212 as recently as the class of 2021, so there is certainly a chance. Realistically, it’s probably less than 50/50. The good news is that barely making it is still making it. Your Selection Index does not impact your chances of becoming a Finalist.
Great article! My daughter scored an index of 217 and we live in Ohio. Is this enough for Semifinalist or Commended?
Anna,
It’s certainly enough for Commended. I think there is at least an 80% chance that it is good enough for Semifinalist.
Hey Art,
I am a student in Louisiana, and I got a 213 as my index. What do you think are the chances of me being a semifinalist? Thank you!
Marlie,
In years where we see stability in cutoffs, about two-thirds of states see the same cutoff or a lower one. I think we’ll see a stable year, so I’d estimate your student’s chances at 60-70%.
I got a 213 on my PSAT and it says I am in the 99th %tile for people. I live in Wisconsin. How likely am I to make the semifinalist cutoff since I am on the line but I do see top 1% which considering they name 16000 people and less than 1.6mill took the test I would ASSUME I would qualify. Where did you get the number that 214 was the most likely number from Wisconsin considering scores overall did not appear to vary at all. I will be very sad if I miss it by one point and have been stressing for a while if I will or will not get this award. I got 99% in english and 99% in math.
Brayden,
Choosing between 213 and 214 for my “Most Likely” was a little arbitrary. WI has recently had cutoffs as high as 217 (albeit in an up year nationally), so I was conservative.
Percentiles, unfortunately, don’t provide us any useful information when it comes to National Merit: (A) they are not based on the Selection Index (B) they are for 3 previous class years and not your class year (C) in the case of “Nationally-representative percentiles”, they include estimates for students who didn’t actually test (D) they are rounded, and the rounding matters and (E) they are not reported by state, and Semifinalist status is determined ONLY by state.
I recommend assuming the best and taking your mind off of it until September.
Y’all should know that Art is a blessing to all things National Merit! His guidance is invaluable. My son is (likely) a National Merit Finalist for 2023 and Art’s advice and predictions have been spot on. Trust the process and congratulations to your children on their success!
This is such valuable information! My daughter got a 215 in TN and I see that historically, that is where it has hit. She is quite nervous since it is so close. I read above she can retake it? She also took the ACT her sophomore year and got a 34 without preparing. I also saw you mention ACT can be used? How would she take it again or use ACT? We too were told it had to happen during a specific testing time. She is currently a JR.
Elise,
Students who took the PSAT cannot retake an exam for Semifinalist qualifying. Students who missed the PSAT and are qualifying via Alternate Entry are able to repeat the SAT. What you may be thinking of is Finalist qualification. Once a student is named a Semifinalist (fingers crossed for your daughter), she will need to provide a “confirming score” as part of her Finalist application. That score can be an SAT or ACT and can be repeated anytime between fall of sophomore year and December of senior year. Your daughter’s 34 is likely already high enough. [I have to say likely because there are some quirks in converting an ACT to an SAT Selection Index. You can find out more in our National Merit FAQ post.]
Hello (from California)!
My son’s NMSC index is 220, he took SAT in Nov, 2022 and scored 1530. If Cal index is 221, he would miss it. My question is if someone meets the index (e.g. 221) but he/she would only need 1400 SAT to qualify for semifinalist? Thanks!
Liz,
Only the PSAT score is used for determining Semifinalist status. I’m not sure that I understand your question about the 1400. If someone meets the index, they qualify as a Semifinalist. They then need a confirming SAT score to qualify as a Finalist. A 1400 is approximately the score needed. A 1400 would not qualify a CA student as a Semifinalist.
Hi!
Any predictions for Maryland’s cut off this year? My son’s index score is 223. His high school college counseling office said that the cut-off are determined in in December. Is that correct? Why aren’t they released until August? Thanks!
Monica,
Cutoffs are not determined in December. They are not finalized until May/June at the earliest and are kept under lock-and-key at NMSC until notifications are sent out. NMSC does notifications via schools, so it makes more sense to wait until August than to try to do something over the summer. The 224 cutoff that we saw for the class of 2022 was caused by the mass cancellations in Maryland. I don’t think we will see a repeat this year.
What about 2024 students just below the “commend” line (say index @ 200)? Obviously, that’s a formidable score. Do they receive any accolades? Do colleges/scholarships traditionally value anything below “comenend” line? Assume one student at 200-205 from NJ vs one from West Virginia.
David,
Except for its use in National Merit, I am not aware of any schools that evaluate students or offer scholarships based on PSAT scores. Instead, it’s best to view a formidable score on the PSAT as a prelude to success on the SAT. It’s the latter that matters for admissions and awards.
Hi Art!
Hope you had a great Christmas! Thank you for the article it was very informative.
My son scored a 215 in Florida. What do you think are his chances of making the semi-finals?
Thanks!
Thank you, Rod!
I’d say that it is close to 50/50 on a 215 versus a 216 cutoff this year.
Art, thank you. Your data suggests my daughter will qualify as a semi-finalist and assuming her resume/SAT scores confirm those results so she’s lucky enough to be named a finalist, I have a very specific question. I read where if you qualify for a corporate reward (let’s say I work for a sponsoring company), you wouldn’t be eligible for a school award. Of course they don’t want double dipping, but what happens if the Corporate Award would be more beneficial at a school that doesn’t offer significant National Merit aid, but would be significantly less than another school that sponsors more finalists? I know there is some risk involved in choosing your primary school, but does National Merit award the scholarship that will be best for you if you name both a school and a corporate sponsor?
Max,
Sorry for the long delay. I consider myself an expert on score and eligibility questions, but I get hazier when dealing with some of the advanced questions on scholarships. The matching process is still almost a year away for your daughter. My advice is to contact NMSC once your daughter becomes a Finalist. NMSC will help determine the best course.
Hello, what are the chances that I qualify with a 216 in Florida? Thanks
Harold,
I think we are likely to see a 215 or 216 cutoff in Florida, but we can’t rule out a higher score. I’d say that you’re in the 75-80% range.
Great article, My son scored a 217 in Missouri. Will that qualify as a semifinalist? Thank you,
Rich,
It’s just about a lock. Missouri has never seen a cutoff above 217, and I don’t think that we’ll see any records this year.
Art,
Could you tell me if the top 3% scoring 1400 and above (N=43,575) in your table is based on hard data or an estimate? The test seemed particularly difficult. Thank you.
Hard data.
Hi,
My son graduates high school in 2024. My son’s PSAT selection index is 226. We are from Arizona (AZ). I believe he will be named a Semifinalist. My question is, for the SAT requirement to become a Finalist, does he need to take the SAT test during a specific time? In other words, he has already taken the SAT on 12/3/22 and he scored well (1500+). Can we use this SAT test results to meet the SAT requirement for becoming a Finalist? Or does he need to take the SAT during a specific time, like, between October 2023 and December 2023 to meet the Finalist requirement? I read somewhere that we need to take the SAT during a specific duration. That is why I am asking the question. Thank you for taking time in answering my question.
Chandra,
The confirming score can be earned any time between Aug of sophomore year and Dec of senior year. Congratulations!
Thank you very much.
Do you know if alternate entry will require a confirming score for the class of 2024? I am unable to find any answer on the NMSC site. Thank you!
Kim,
I believe that Alternate Entry still requires a confirming score, but you may want to check with National Merit. No, it’s not published in any of its materials.
Hi,
Thank you for this article it has been extremely helpful. I think my daughter scored high enough to make the South Carolina cutoff and has already taken the ACT/SAT and done well in her sophomore year, are those scores applicable toward becoming a Merit Finalist ? She plans to take them both at least 1 more time. Is there a specific score she needs to be competitive to be a finalist? Thank you!
Laura,
As long the the scores were earned in the August of her sophomore year (technically right before her sophomore year) or later, she should be fine. The confirming score for Finalist is all or nothing. In other words, a high score doesn’t make it more likely to qualify. A Semifinalist needs to earn an SAT score (or equivalent ACT score) that is at least as high as the Commended cutoff selection index. Roughly, that means a 1400 or better on the SAT.
Hi Art, My son has 220 in 99th percentile in NYS. NY has been at 219-220 for the last 4 years. Does he have a shot?
Andy,
I think he has an excellent shot. I doubt that we’ll see NY move to 221 this year, but we can’t completely rule it out.
Hi Art,
Thanks for such an informative article. My daughter has 219 for selection index on the PAST, which she took in October 2023. What are her odds of making it to Semi Final. We are from Colorado.
Sam,
A 219 has an excellent shot this year. While CO has seen cutoffs of 220 and 221, recently, those were during years where all of the cutoffs were high. I think we are seeing a “low” year this year.
Thanks for the informative article! California Junior here with a 220 selection index score, what do you think is the likelihood I will be a semifinalist?
Alden,
I’d put even odds on 220 and 221.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, great article! I got a 216 in Florida, 99th in English, 98th in math, but 99th total percentile. Does everyone in the 99th percentile get national merit, or can some not get it? I know that I’m right on the cutoff, so I’m pretty nervous
Adam,
Percentiles are not applicable for National Merit. First, they are national, and National Merit (despite the name) is decided at the state level. Second, percentiles are based on a hypothetical set of all test takers, not on actual test takers. Third, percentiles are based on prior years and not on this year. Fourth, … you get the point. I think you’ve got a better than even chance of Semifinalist with a 216, but it is not because of percentiles.
When will the final selection index score cutoff for each state come out?
Julie,
In late August NMSC will notify schools of Semifinalists. Schools will then notify Semifinalists. It’s around that time in early September when we learn the cutoffs. Alas, there is no early release.
I had read commended was about top 3%, so how does percentile correlate with that at all (if at all)? My son was 98th percentile, but his score is under the 207 projected for commended.
Dee,
College Board presents percentiles in a misleading way. Rather than base them on the actual test takers, it bases them on a hypothetical group of all high school juniors. While your son is in approximately the top 2% of that hypothetical group, he is likely in the top 4% of actual test takers. Also, National Merit uses the Selection Index, which does not have an attached percentile.
Hello! I scored an index of 215 and I live in Texas. Is this enough for Semifinalist or does it fall short?
Dav U,
A 215 will fall short of Semifinalist. You will be named a Commended Student.
Hey Art,
I have kind of a double situation. One of my children lives in alabama and got a 220 index and the other lives in Louisiana and got a 212. Any insight or opinions on national merit for them? thanks
Grace,
Your student in Alabama will qualify as a Semifinalist next September. It’s going to be a waiting game for your student in LA. While Louisiana’s cutoff has gone as low as 212 (most recently in the class of 2021), it’s cutoff usually falls higher than that.
Hi,
Thank you for such an informative article! My child received a score of 209 in New Mexico. Do you think that will be commended or semi-finalist?
New Mexico’s most recent cutoffs have been 210 and 208, so it is definitely possible that your student is named a Semifinalist. Your student should at least be named Commended.
My son got 226 (Delaware), he says it does not guarantee any thing beyond becoming a semifinalist, is that true?
Steven,
Congratulations to your son! He is correct. The Finalist stage is completely separate and depends on grades, a confirming score on the SAT or ACT (just getting an SAT score at around the Commended level), and a recommendation from his school. He will also submit an essay. Most Semifinalists become Finalists.
Thanks for the information, appreciate that. So a selected semifinalist student should get equal or more SAT score than raw score of PSAT to remain competitive in next step?
More than the Commended Selection Index, which will probably be around 207-209. I’d recommend at least a 1400.
Hi,
For Illinois, my stuent has a 218 selection index. What is the likelihood of qualifying as national merit semi-finalist from Illinois? Since Illinois selection index did go up by 1 point for class of 2023 – do you think that upward trend will continue for class of 2024? Also does having a 99th percentile in both Reading/Writing and Math play a role in what the national merit semi-finalist qualifying selection index will be for Illinois?
Sang,
We can’t call a 1-year change a trend. There is a chance that Illinois’ cutoff will drop back to 218. No, the percentiles do not provide insight, unfortunately. They are based on previous years data and are estimates of a percentile rank if every junior in the country took the PSAT. We won’t know how IL students actually performed until later Aug/early September.
My child also scored a 218 in IL. I see your predicted cutoff is 219… would you put 218 as a slim chance, or more like 25-30%. Just trying to manage his expectations. Thank you so much for your thoughts!
Julie,
A 1-point drop would not be unusual, so I think it’s closer to 25-30% than it is to “slim.”
Very interesting article. Given your suggestion to use the “range” as an indicator for semi-finalist cutoff, a score of 222 in Texas has a fairly good chance. In your opinion, will that score make the “finalist” list?
Kevin,
Thank you for thinking in terms of ranges! There is no chance that a 223 falls within Texas’s range. A 222 will achieve Semifinalist honors. Finalist is a different stage in the competition and does not involve the Selection Index. Instead, Semifinalists submit an application, including an essay. NMSC considers your grades and school recommendation. You must also obtain a “confirming” SAT or ACT score, which basically means a score at around the level of the Commended cutoff (about 1400).
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
With a 216 and in 99 percentile in GA, will my child has any chance to be named Commended Students by NMSC. Thank you!
Annie
Annie,
Your student’s score may fall a bit short of the Semifinalist cutoff, but is high enough that your student will receive Commended honors.
My son took the PSAT as a sophomore with a score of 211. Unfortunately his score dropped this year to a 206…and he is looking at a school which gives full tuition for a commended scholar. That’s a hard one to take when just a couple questions could have made the difference.
Laura,
It’s a lot of pressure for a single test on a single day. Let’s hope that the Commended level declines just a bit more.
Hi Art,
Thanks so much for your helpful blog posts! My son has a selection index of 218 and is in Colorado. Do you think it’s possible that the cutoff could increase to 219, or can we safely assume that he will be named a NMSF in Sept.?
Your son has a good chance at being named a Semifinalist. Unfortunately, his score is not high enough where he can be considered safe. Best of luck next summer!
Any updates or ideas on if scores are likely to drop of go up for louisiana? or are you thinking 213?
Maddie,
No new updates. My most likely for LA is 213.
Hi!
I got a 222 but live in NJ. Do you think I still have a chance of being a semi-finalist?
Nina,
I do think you have a chance. In the 4 years that I consider low years nationally, NJ has come in at 222 in 3 of them. It’s something of a toss-up.
Hi – my daughter is a Florida junior with an index score of 218, has the index score been set for 2024? I see the chart shows range and most likely. Thanks!
Lili,
These are only my estimates, and I am not affiliated with National Merit. The official announcements will not be made until September 2023. Very unofficially, I can say that there is zero chance that Florida’s cutoff will be above 218 this year.
Daughter in Ohio with index of 208. Odds of getting Commended?
Thank you so much for this wonderful resource.
Thomas,
There is a chance that we see a Commended mark of 209, but I think your daughter’s chances are in the 80+% range.
Hi!
I got a 219 in Texas. Should I be an NMSQT Semifinalist? Is this prediction certified?
Anon,
I think it is likely a toss-up between 219 and 220. I am not affiliated with National Merit, so this is not at all certified. Semifinalists won’t be announced until September 2023.
Hi. I have a selection index score of 221 in Georgia. What do you think my chance of become a semifinalist is?
Joseph,
100%. Congratulations!
Hi Art, My daughter is a junior in CA, with selection index score of 221. She may qualify for the selection. Do you know when she need to take SAT exam to be consider? Thank you!
Amy,
Technically she has until Dec 2023 to take the SAT for Finalist consideration, but I would never recommend waiting that long! She can also take the ACT if she prefers.
Hi Art,
For some reason , user can not see older comment. We can only see the last reply to Asunator. Clicking on “Older Comment” also doesnt do anything.
I am curious to read your response to my query but I cant get to ti.
AFU,
It’s a bug with our website software. If you right click on Older Comments and open in a new tab, you should be able to navigate to previous comments. Oh, and I just answered your original question!
CT Junior here with index score of 222. What’s the chance CT cut off will go up more than 2 points this year?
Liana,
No chance that CT will go to 223 this year. Congratulations!
Hi! I’m an Ohio junior with a selection index score of 220. What do you think my chances of making it to the semifinalist level are?
Asunator,
You will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi Mr.Sawyer, My scored high on English but did bad on Math. Her PSAT index is 208. Does commended cutoff only look at index not the actual past score? Thanks
Tammy,
National Merit only looks at the Selection Index.
After reading all of the comments, it seems like a 218 in Florida is very likely for NM. Thank you for all of this information.
Christa,
You are correct. I don’t see how Florida could bounce to 219.
Art, thank you for the clear explanation. My daughter attends international school overseas and should be in the “study abroad” group, aka, the highest national cut-off line. She got 222 (1490). Are we still looking at MD, NJ and DC this year? Any more information sharing for this special group? thank you!
SG,
As goes NJ, so goes the overseas selection unit. No, I don’t have any insight into what is going to happen in NJ this year. Good luck!
Hi,
What is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 221 in California?
Also, once a student is qualified, does a student with lower index will automatically have lesser chance to be finalist compare to someone with higher index? Or the index doesn’t matter anymore once you are qualified as semifinalist?
Thank you
Prin,
I’d say that it is a a 75-90% likelihood. I don’t think California will go up by 2 points this year. The cutoff is a qualifying number and does not change one’s chances of being named a Finalist.
Thank you for this informative article! Any chance a 218 can qualify as a semifinalist in Georgia? Would appreciate the rationale for moving the cutoff estimate up one point to 219 from 218 last year?
Andy,
In a year where the national numbers look so similar to last year’s numbers, there is clearly an argument that most cutoffs will remain the same. So 218 is a good possibility. Why did I go with 219? I looked at the 4 years in the last 7 that are “low years.” Georgia’s cutoff was 219 in 3 of those years. That was my rationale, but I always recommend students reflect on the potential range.
Hi! Thanks for this great article. I just need a quick clarification. If a cut-off for semi-finalists is, say, 221, does that mean that 222 and above qualify, or 221 and above qualify?
Lizzie,
It means 221 and above qualify.