National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2023

PSAT/NMSQT scores were released to students this week, and Compass has an inside look at the numbers from College Board. Almost 1.5 million juniors were able to test this October, up from the 982,000 in 2020. Far more schools were able to offer the PSAT this year than last, but PSAT volumes were still down about 12% from the pre-pandemic numbers of 2019. A number of factors can impact the Commended and Semifinalist cutoffs. For example, test taker volumes, test difficulty, scaling irregularities, geographic distribution of test takers, and Alternate Entry can all have an impact. Compass dissects these factors below. [For a general overview of the National Merit process, see our FAQ. An archive of our post on the lead-up to the class of 2022 cutoffs can be found here. For a look at cutoff trends going back to the class of 2008, see Historical National Merit Cutoffs.]

Our evidence points to a Commended cutoff of 208, but we suggest students think of it as a range of possibilities from 207 to 209. Most of the Semifinalist ranges have tightened from our September post, because we can now see that scores have not bounced back fully from the lows seen for the class of 2022.

[Below is the correct version of estimates posted 12/7/21 6:45am PDT and based on the 208 Commended cutoff. Apologies to those visiting during the evening of 12/6/21. -ed.]

Consider the Range
Although we provide a “most likely” estimate for each state, Compass encourages students to think of cutoff targets as a ranges. As the historical data show, states can see significant swings in cutoffs from year to year. While Compass now has national figures from the PSAT administrations, we do not have state-by-state numbers. Our current estimates depend on the interplay between the expected Commended level and the historical trends in state cutoffs.

Estimating the Commended Student Cutoff

The table above provides essential clues for both the Commended and Semifinalist cutoffs. College Board does not provide a point-by-point breakdown of scores. Instead, it reports student counts by score range. While the conversion between total score and Selection Index is not perfect, we can loosely say that the 43,985 figure represents the number of students at 210 and above. Since National Merit looks for approximately 50,000 qualifiers, it is highly likely that the cutoff will be below 210 this year. Given the comparison to last year, it is also likely to be above 207. Compass predicts a cutoff of 208. What could drive the cutoff higher? College Board sometimes reports scores late. If there were a large dump of new scores, the cutoff might be higher. Late changes in student counts are usually small.

The PSAT was overhauled in 2015 (class of 2017) and its scoring changed. As we get more years of results from the new test, confidence grows in the relationship between the 1400-1520 scorer numbers and the Commended cutoff. The chart below shows the data for the 6 known years and indicates where the class of 2023 is expected to fall.

Commended versus Semifinalist, National versus State
The Commended cutoff is determined by looking at the top 50,000 scorers nationally. Semifinalist cutoffs, on the other hand, are determined state-by-state. The performance of students in Georgia or Michigan has no impact on the cutoffs in New York or Ohio. NMSC establishes a target number of Semifinalists based on the high school population in each state. California, for example, has a target of approximately 2,000 Semifinalists. NMSC determines the Semifinalist cutoff that comes as close as possible to producing 2,000 Semifinalists in the state. While this methodology ensures a national distribution of Semifinalists, it means that some states are far more competitive than others.

When your selection unit is not a state
The Semifinalist cutoff for each of the 50 states is calculated independently. However, some cutoffs are not independent.  NMSC considers boarding school students, students studying abroad, and students in the District of Columbia and in U.S. Territories or Commonwealths as separate “selection units” that follow specific rules. The net effect is that the cutoffs for the District of Columbia and students studying abroad are always set at the level of the highest state cutoff. The cutoff for U.S. Territories is set at the Commended Student level (as it is with some states). The cutoff for a boarding school is set at the highest state cutoff within the boarding school’s region.

Did scores skew low or high? What does that mean for potential Semifinalists?
Only 3% of students scored at or above 1400 this year. That’s the lowest value we’ve seen — tied with an October 2019 PSAT that had an unusually difficult scale. three things could produce that low of a figure: (1) the October 2021 exam also had a challenging scale or (2) student learning has been impaired during the pandemic and test performance reflects it or (3) a disproportionate number of high scorers were unable (or chose not) to test. The wildcard with the last case would be students applying Alternate Entry via SAT scores. Compass expects that wildcard to play a limited role this year. The 12% difference between this year’s PSAT volume and the pre-pandemic level is modest compared to the 41% drop for the class of 2022. Even last year’s falloff produced few anomalies — Maryland being the most painful exception. The timing of Alternate Entries means that there can be no impact on the Commended cutoff.

Expect cutoffs to resemble the low scoring classes of 2017, 2021, and 2022
There have been 3 recent years where the Commended cutoff fell below 210 and 3 years where it fell above 210. In the low years, the cutoffs averaged 216, 215, and 215. In the high years, the averages were all 218. If the 224 in Maryland is considered an inauthentic result, the highest cutoffs were at 222 in the low years and 223 in the high years.

The Role of Test Scaling
The PSAT is usually taken by about 1.5 million students each year. The pool is large enough and consistent enough that the scores of the top 50,000 students should not change much. And yet they do. This reflects a shortcoming of the PSAT/NMSQT — it’s well-designed to measure the performance of the average student, but is more prone to error at the edges. College Board attempts to scale each PSAT so that a particular score represents the same level of achievement. In practice, we see clear examples of where College Board’s numbers are “off.” The class of 2020, for example, had an unusual test form that produced far lower cutoffs than in the previous year. Further confusing matters is that several different test forms are used each year. Compass’s analysis shows that this year’s PSAT — or at least the primary form, taken by more than 1 million students — was difficult. This difficulty can show up throughout the range of cutoffs, but lower scoring states tend to track the Commended level more than do the higher scoring states.

Below is a chart showing the lowest third of cutoffs and the highest third versus the Commended level for the last 6 years.

Why our Most Likely estimates are wrong
Even the folks at College Board and NMSC don’t know the final cutoffs for the class of 2023 yet. The Commended figure usually leaks out in April, and the Semifinalist numbers generally aren’t known until Labor Day. Historically, most Semifinalist cutoffs fall within our estimated ranges. No website, though, should claim that they know what the cutoffs will be. While Compass knows the number of high scoring students nationally, for example, the figure could be skewed by state. If Hawaii had heavy cancellations [a fictional hypothesis – ed.], the numbers would barely be a blip on the national scene, and yet they could have a substantial impact on the Semifinalist cutoff in Hawaii.

We know from tracking cutoffs in past years that “no change” is the most common result, and yet it only occurs about 1 time out of 4. Variability is the one certainty. See the chart below for a summary of changes in the last 10 years.

Also, test-taking behavior can change from year to year. In some states, the majority of juniors take the PSAT, which makes the competition more intense for Semifinalist spots. In states where the focus is more on the ACT than the SAT, on the other hand, PSAT participation and cutoffs tend to be lower. Participation rates are not static. Schools, districts, and entire states make decisions about what test to offer and to which students. For example, when Illinois and Michigan shifted from the ACT to the SAT, they saw higher cutoffs as an offshoot. Changes at the school and district level may have a less pronounced effect, but they can still shift the cutoffs.

Why our ranges are most likely right
It’s unusual for a state to break out of its historical norms. Given the weakness in scores this year, it is unlikely that we will see a state establish a new high. It’s more likely that scores will be aligned with other low years. Even in that narrowly defined group, fluctuations are the rule rather than the exception.

Is it possible to quantify the swings seen when “low” years are isolated? The table below groups states by size, because larger states tend to have more stable cutoffs.

The difference between a state’s maximum cutoff in the classes of 2017, 2021, and 2022 is calculated versus its minimum. For example, the cutoffs for Florida were 217, 216, and 217, so the maximum difference was 1 point. There were a total of 9 large states that had the same difference. Five large states saw the same cutoff across all 3 years, and no large state had a swing of more than 2 points. By contrast, 10 of the 16 medium-sized states had swings of at least 3 points. Two of the 17 small states had differences of 5 points. It is wrong to assume that the data from three years is definitive. A state that had no change in those three years could see movement this year. The underlying idea, though, is solid. Swings happen. They happen more in smaller states. They are not always predictable by national results alone.

Did Alternate Entry break the NMSQT?
The junior year PSAT has also served as the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test for more than 60 years. However, there has long been an exception for extenuating circumstances such as illness. For students who were sick on the day of the exam, NMSC allowed the substitution — pending an application by the school counselor and approval by NMSC — of an SAT score. Alternate Entry was uncommon and something of a rounding error. In fact, NMSC didn’t even need to use the entrants’ scores when calculating Semifinalist cutoffs. What if an entire country is ill, however? The pandemic forced NMSC to rewrite the rules for Alternate Entry. In California, for example, PSAT volume dropped by almost 90% because of COVID-19 restrictions. What would National Merit have meant if all of those students had been disqualified? In reaction, NMSC allowed students to self-apply and — so long as they met the application deadline and didn’t have a PSAT on file — be automatically approved. This change avoided disqualifying students who missed the PSAT, but now NMSC lacked PSAT scores from the majority of potential qualifiers in some states. The NMSQT was broken — at least for a bit — and SAT scores had to be incorporated into the calculation of cutoffs.

In most cases, the resulting cutoffs were at least within the historical norms. But then there was Maryland.  All of the top NMSF-producing districts in the state had to cancel the PSAT/NMSQT. Most of the state’s Semifinalists qualified via the SAT, and this moved the cutoff to the highest ever recorded by any state. The students who were able to take the PSAT (about one-third of the usual volume) were at a disadvantage. The Alternate Entry system wasn’t designed for such a radical set of circumstances.

The hope for the class of 2023 is that most states got back to something approaching normal this year. The 1.5 million test takers figure points to recovery. There could still be pockets, however, where Alternate Entry plays the role of spoiler. NMSC has been tight-lipped about how it will handle Alternate Entry applications and SAT scores in this years’ calculations. For now, we remain optimistic that the NMSQT was bowed but not permanently broken.