National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2025

September 4: Updated with Semifinalist Cutoffs for Class of 2025

Each year, the National Merit Scholarship Program recognizes approximately 50,000 students based on the results of junior year PSAT/NMSQT scores. Students at or above their state’s Semifinalist Selection Index cutoff will be among the 17,000 National Merit Semifinalists and move to the next step in the program. [Boarding school students must meet regional, rather than state, cutoffs.] Students receive Semifinalist notification from their high schools, and many schools will wait until September 11th to pass along the news. Students missing the Semifinalist level but scoring at or above a 208 this year will be named Commended Students. Students qualifying as Semifinalists may want to read Compass’s National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for more information about the Finalist and scholarship process. The Selection Index is listed on a student’s PSAT score report. It can be calculated by doubling the ERW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. For example, a 720 ERW / 730 M would have a Selection Index of (720 x 2 + 730)/10 = 217.

Every year, tens of thousands of students hold out hope for a one or two point decline in their state’s Semifinalist cutoff. And every year, many of those hopes are rewarded. This year was very different. The only state to see a decline was South Dakota (209 to 208). That change likely impacted just 4 or 5 students out of the 17,000 students named as Semifinalists.

The three largest states for Semifinalists — California, Texas, and New York — saw cutoffs unchanged, but optimists were not well-rewarded in much of the country. Only 12 states saw flat cutoffs. Of the 37 states with higher cutoffs, 10 saw increases of 3 or more points. Alaska and South Carolina didn’t just bounce back from the Class of 2024 figures, they did so with a vengeance, going up 5 points.

Had we seen a big jump in the Commended level, these Semifinalist cutoffs would not have been that surprising. We’ve previously seen years where nearly all cutoffs rise or fall. With the modest increase from 207 to 208, though, it looked like another year of treading water.

There were no new records this year, although four states did tie their previous highs: Massachusetts (+1), New Jersey (unchanged), Virginia (+3), and Washington (+2). Virginia’s oddly low 219 from last year proved to be an anomaly rather than a new standard.

Another quirk in the results is that only South Dakota came in at the Commended level (no Semifinalist cutoff can come in below the Commended cutoff). Montana, West Virginia, and Wyoming all ended up with a 209 cutoff. In the 17 prior years that Compass has tracked, West Virginia’s cutoff has only been above the Commended level twice and Wyoming’s only three times — never in the same year.

There are no easy explanations. I suspect that the Commended cutoff fell just short of 209. That fits with the increased number of students scoring 1400 and up on the PSAT and would also help explain the West Virginia and Wyoming results. A 2-point Commended increase would have better explained the results elsewhere along the curve. The distribution of changes was most similar to what happened with the classes of 2012 and 2018, years when the Commended level increased by 2 points.

Students in the classes of 2026 and 2027 can use the historical cutoff values to produce an estimate range of the scores needed to qualify as a Semifinalist. As we saw with the class of 2025, cutoffs can change in unpredictable ways from year to year. Once results come back in November for the October PSAT, Compass will update this post to produce more accurate estimates for next year’s class of Semifinalists.

State	Class of 2025 (Actual)	Change	Class of 2024 (Actual)
Alabama	212	2	210
Alaska	214	5	209
Arizona	217	1	216
Arkansas	213	3	210
California	221	0	221
Colorado	218	2	216
Connecticut	221	0	221
Delaware	219	0	219
District of Columbia	223	0	223
Florida	217	1	216
Georgia	218	1	217
Hawaii	217	0	217
Idaho	213	2	211
Illinois	220	1	219
Indiana	217	1	216
Iowa	212	2	210
Kansas	215	1	214
Kentucky	213	2	211
Louisiana	214	0	214
Maine	214	1	213
Maryland	222	1	221
Massachusetts	223	1	222
Michigan	218	1	217
Minnesota	217	1	216
Mississippi	212	3	209
Missouri	215	1	214
Montana	209	0	209
Nebraska	211	1	210
Nevada	214	3	211
New Hampshire	217	2	215
New Jersey	223	0	223
New Mexico	211	4	207
New York	220	0	220
North Carolina	218	1	217
North Dakota	210	3	207
Ohio	217	1	216
Oklahoma	211	3	208
Oregon	216	0	216
Pennsylvania	219	0	219
Rhode Island	217	2	215
South Carolina	214	5	209
South Dakota	208	-1	209
Tennessee	217	0	217
Texas	219	0	219
Utah	211	2	209
Vermont	215	3	212
Virginia	222	3	219
Washington	222	2	220
West Virginia	209	2	207
Wisconsin	214	1	213
Wyoming	209	2	207
​U.S. Territories	208	1	207
​​Studying Abroad	223	0	223
​​​Commended	208	1	207

 

April 8 Update:

The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.

Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Commended Student letters will be sent to high schools on September 11th. It is up to high schools to notify students.

[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]

The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]

Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.

This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.

The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.

[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs.

[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]

The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.

However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.

 

Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.

What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.

The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.

How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,000 Semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).

Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

• Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
• Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
• Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
• The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
• Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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