After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello!
I took the PSAT/NMSQT in October and was wondering how likely I am to become a Semi-Finalist. My Index score is 222, but I live in Massachusetts, so the odds of making the cutoff aren’t great. Is there any chance I’ll make it, or is it completely hopeless?
Keira,
Yes, I love Massachusetts, but it’s a tough place to earn Semifinalist status. If you want to take an optimistic view, I’d look at the fact that the classes of 2017 and 2018 had 222 cutoffs even in strong years nationally. I’d say that there is about a 40% chance that the MA cutoff settles back to 222. Good luck!
Hi Art,
Thank you for your information. My junior student in Washington got index of 221. May I know your thought about her chance of getting semifinalist for 2026? I have seen actual index cutoff for 2024 is 220, 2025 is 222, and you projected the likely cutoff of 221 for 2026. Thanks.
Julia
Julia,
Just seeing this now. Last year’s 222 was disconcerting, because it didn’t come with a big change at the national level (VA also saw a 3-point jump to 222). Was it something of a fluke or did Washington suddenly get more competitive? I usually take an historical view. The WA cutoff hit 222 for the classes of 2018, 2019, and 2025. So in the 9 years since the PSAT changed scoring, it has happened one-third of the time. In 2018 and 2019 we saw high scores in many states. Last year is harder to explain. I still think that 221 is most likely based on the historical record, but I wouldn’t put the odds of a 221 qualifying higher than about 60% – 65%.
Hello Mr. Sawyer, How do you rate my chances with a score of 215 in South Carolina? Also, are the cutoff numbers typically determined in April? Are they available anywhere before September? Thank you.
Kate,
South Carolina’s 8-point difference between its high and low cutoffs over the last decade put it near the top in terms of score variability. Just last year the cutoff jumped 5 points in a relatively flat year. The good news is that it has only twice crested 215, and in years that were more competitive nationally than this year. As you know, though, it’s not about the national numbers. There is still the chance that SC will make a 2-point jump. I’d say your chances are 70-80%. The only thing determined in April is the Commended cutoff. The Semifinalist cutoffs and lists are not released to high schools until the end of August (and most high schools don’t get them and distribute until the first couple of weeks of September). So 5.5 more months of waiting, I’m afraid. We try to determine the cutoffs once things start coming in around Labor Day.
Hello,
My daughter has an index score of 218 and it appears that this is probably good enough for finalist status in Iowa for 2026. But I know that the other criteria for finalist status include “validating” the PSAT score by achieving a “good enough” ACT or SAT score. I have not been able to find any information anywhere about how high the ACT/SAT score needs to be in order to validate that she should be granted finalist status. She currently has a 32 ACT which she achieved on a “practice” round as a Sophomore, but hopes to improve on that this Spring. Do you have any guidance on whether a 32 is likely to be accepted or will she need a higher score?
Jonathan,
Congratulations! The confirming score is usually set at the Commended cutoff. While we don’t know that score yet, we can assume that a 212 will be a safe score as an SAT Selection Index (calculated as you would a PSAT Selection Index by doubling the RW, adding the Math, and dividing by 10). I write a bit more about this process in our National Merit FAQ. The ACT makes things more complicated, because it needs to be converted to an SAT score.
You can use the concordance tables here to convert the Reading and English to an SAT RW score (table C2) and the ACT Math to an SAT Math score (Table B2). The Science score is ignored because there is no equivalent on the SAT. You can probably guess, then, that there is no way to immediately say that a 32 is “good enough,” since it is a rounded average of all the scores. I suspect that it will be, but you’ll need to do the conversions.
Thank you sir. Looks like her existing ACT score would result in SAT equivalent index of 214, so probably in good shape on this piece (32 Math, 32 English, 34 Reading).
Thanks for the help!
Great! Glad that I could help.
Any clues yet as to the cutoff for commended? Not sure when in April to expect this info to begin leaking. Thanks!
Jessica,
A parent today implied that they had heard 210 from the school, but I am awaiting further confirmation. Usually I hear something by mid-April.
Hello,
My son scored 217 in New York 🙁 Does he at least have a chance at Commended status or will the cutoff for commended be closer to 220?
Thanks,
Edena,
The Semifinalist cutoff for NY will be around 220, but the Commended cutoff is national and will fall around 210. Your son will be named a Commended Student in mid-September.
hi art, do you know when the commended scores will be confirmed for 2024 PSAT?
Ely,
Usually it leaks out mid-April.
Hello
My daughter index score is 221.Is this the good enough score to be finalist in New Jersey.Her March sat is score is 1550.Do you have any idea weather she will be able to qualify for finalist?
Sumi,
New Jersey is the most competitive state in the country and its Semifinalist cutoff rarely varies much year to year. We have to go back more than a dozen years to find a 221 cutoff. Unfortunately, I think your daughter’s score will fall just a little bit short this year. She will be named a Commended Student. The SAT score is not a factor at the Semifinalist stage.
Art – if the school was notified that 210 is the commended… how likely are we now for a 220 in Texas?
Michelle,
If the Commended is at 210, then it falls exactly where I expected it to fall, so it doesn’t really change much for Texas. It reduces the chances that we’d see something crazy like a 218 or 222, but doesn’t shift the balance much in the 219 – 221 range. I’d still keep odds at around 65-70%.
Ok one more questions. Hypothetically… because I am trying to understand the math a bit. If national students are scoring 4% approx of high scores above 1400 (of course we don’t know how many of those are upper 1400s-1520s). What would happen if Texas scores were only at 3% top scorers? Does that impact anything at all? Would you typically see a higher semi cut score or no change at all because we still don’t know what percent typically score at the top range of those top scores? You are so much smarter than I am and I am so interested in how this works for such a large state like Texas. (Sorry to be a pain, just interested in your thoughts)
We can make a pretty accurate assumption that the number of Texas students scoring at the Commended level or above is between 5,400 and 5,700. Of those, between 1600-1800 will make Semifinalist. As you say, we don’t know the most crucial factor — the exact distribution of high scores. It won’t be that different than in prior years — Texas didn’t go through any major changes. But even fluctuations in test form or the crowding around cutoff scores (some Selection Indexes are more common than others) can tip a score a point or so. I wish that I could say that we’ll know more before September, but we really won’t.
Hey Art,
My son got an index score of 218 in the state of Colorado. What are his chances for qualifying as a National Merit Semi-finalist?
Bill,
I think that it is close to a toss-up. Colorado has produced a number of surprises over the years. The 220s and 221 came in years where we saw higher inflation than in this year. But 219 is a real possibility, and the likelihood of a drop (i.e. 216 or 217) is not very high.
My son has a 224 and is in New Jersey, the highest state. I know that the estimate is 222-224, but I also know that scores have trended up this year. What do you think the odds are that it will increase to 225 and knock him out? I don’t think it’s ever happened, but if the inflation is that bad…. Also, I read that the schools know this information already, but my son’s counselor hasn’t leaked anything. Anyplace else to find out? Has anyone here learned what the cutoff for NJ is?
Cathy,
Congratulations to your son. There is absolutely no chance that we will see a cutoff of 225 this year — or, in my opinion, any year. The inflation is moderate compared to what we have seen in some years, and NJ sticks to its tight range of 222 and 223.
Schools learn about who is progressing (i.e. students who are at least Commended), but they definitely to not know the Semifinalist cutoffs. If they are leaked, we are usually the first (sometimes second) to hear about it. But I’ve never seen a leak earlier than late August.
Hi Art, Great to see that the prediction of 210 was spot on. I see that the “most likely” for Florida is still 218. Wondering if your % chance for that is still 80-90% (from a comment on 1/6/25). My senior son made it last year with a 219 (and got into UF so is getting the Benacquisto Scholarship which is HUGE) but my current 11th grader has a 218. And I thought waiting to find out last year if senior son qualified was stressful. LOL, Little did I know I’d be right back here on your page again! Any % chance update would be appreciated!
Liz,
I would stick with those estimates. I don’t think it will reach 219, but we can’t foreclose the possibility. Fingers crossed that you will soon (5 months?) have two Benacquisto Scholars in the family. [And welcome back!]
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the great info. Is there any chance in your models that Ohio would be higher than a 220 this year, or is that a safe score for SemiFinalist?
The last 3 years in a row the index in Ohio has been 9 pts above commended, which you have now said is 210 for Class of 2026, so wondering if that could possibly spike to 11 above commended based on your comments about what a strong year this is.
Thanks!
Chas,
I am assuming that you have (or your student has) a 220. If so, congratulations! No, Ohio won’t be exceeding 220. We don’t see large states like that blowing by their old records by 2 points. This is an up year, but it is not that wild.
Dear Mr. Sawyer,
I was wondering if the commended cutoff is confirmed officially yet by the NMSC at 210 because I got exactly a 210 and was hoping to make commended. Thank you so much!
Annie,
It is confirmed by multiple, highly-reliable sources. NMSC does not publicly come out and confirm the Commended level until September. But it’s 210. Congratulations on making Commended! (Sorry that you’ll have to wait to hear.)
Hi art: with this cut off (commended 210), would a SAT score of 750 M and 680 R/W? Trying to plan for NMF qualifications. Thanks.
Ely,
NMSC generally sets the confirming score need for NMF at the Commended level, Your SAT score has an SI of 68×2 + 75 = 211. It’s a little tight, but it should be sufficient. And getting a higher score doesn’t improve your chances once you make the minimum.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
There is a very good likelihood of a 224 being good for the Semifinalist cutoff in Illinois, correct? I assume that going up 5 points (to a 225) would be too drastic of a jump for a bigger state?
Thanks!
Jonah,
Congratulations! There is no chance of a 225 in Illinois. I’m even on record as saying that we will never see a 225 in any state.
What is the cut-off for National Hispanic Scholar? I couldn’t find it.
Elsa,
College Board has now confirmed that it has ended the NHRP.
https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org/help-center/why-did-college-board-make-changes-program-2025
Hi Art,
Thank you for all the data and assessment you continue to do for all of us. Two questions for you if you could ,
1) our kid has an index of 218 in Oregon. Curious on your take for likelihood to make SF. Your likely index for Oregon is 217 but the top of the range is 220.
2) curious why does it take this long for the state cutoffs to be set? All the data is known (number of kids that took the tests, scores, number of slots available per state) since last fall. any xls table should be able to calculate it pretty quickly :). There must be something I’m missing.
EC,
(1) Oregon has seen a wide range of cutoffs over the years and has also had some big jumps. That’s why I am a little cautious. I’d estimate that a 218 has a 75-80% chance of qualifying.
(2) Maybe the simplest answer is that National Merit rarely ever changes. The process is virtually identical to the one used in the 1970s. The longer answer is that it is probably more about the timeline than about the capability. Winter is when the organization is focused on Finalists. Spring is when it is focused on scholarship matching. School is out of session during the summer. That leaves the fall. Schools are asked to confirm student information in April and May, since there can be surprises about who is a junior, who forgot to mark a class year, or who is in the wrong state. Again, COULD they do things quicker in 2025? Absolutely! I also think that they would be much better off notifying students directly. Think of Youtube/TikTok acceptance videos. Set a deadline and email everyone at the same time or have them log in to a portal. After such a long wait, snail notifications to schools to pass along to students is so 1996.
Hi Art. Thank you so much for all of this information! With the commended cut off looking like it will be right where you thought, does it make you more or less comfortable with your Pennsylvania cut off prediction of 219? My son is right on the cut off so we are anxiously awaiting the results!
Tim,
I’m feeling pretty good about 219 in Pennsylvania. No, we still can’t rule out a 220, but the 210 Commended level makes it a bit less likely. I’d say a 219 is in the 75% range.
My daughter had to apply for alternate entry due to the local test site not informing us they were not giving the test until it was too late to register with another school. In Tennessee there were not many options to take the PSAT, most schools were for their students only. She took the SAT in March, but I am trying to find out if there is any way to figure out what her scores should be to qualify?
Katrina,
I’m sorry that your daughter’s PSAT experience was impacted. In terms of what the cutoff will be in Tennessee, you are just as in the dark as me and all of the regular entry students. I am hoping that it sticks to last year’s 217. We will start hearing about Semifinalist cutoffs around Labor Day. If she is at 219 or higher, I think she’ll be a lock.
If you want to calculate your daughter’s Selection Index, that I can help with. For a PSAT SI, you drop the trailing 0, double the RW and add the Math. So a 720 RW and 730 M would be a 72 x 2 + 73 = 217. An alternate entry SI is calculated the same way with one major caveat — because the PSAT maxes out at 760, SAT scores are capped at 760 per section. For example, if your daughter got a 720 RW and 780 M, her SI would be 72 x 2 + 76 = 220. Scores between 770 and 800 are always set to 760.
Hello,
Can you explain how the SAT confirming scores work/ finalist qualifications work? Do I need to match my PSAT SI? I got a 226 in Wisconsin, so I’m assuming Semifinalist and planning for Finalist qualifications. (Taking the SAT in June)
Thanks!
Lilly,
Congratulations! You do not need to match your score. The confirming score is generally set at the Commended level (210 this year) and is a national standard. I would imagine that you’ll make that easily. If you don’t nail the test in June, you can take the SAT as late as December for your Finalist qualification.
Hey,
I wanted to see what my chances are of becoming a National Merit Semifinalist in the state of Mississippi with a score of 214. I know the projected cutoff is 213, but looking at the numbers from just my school alone, we had 16 people make the cutoff of 212 last year and have 27 this year at that same score or above and 32 commended. I understand that in a small state like Mississippi, one school performing really well could affect the entire state’s cutoff—I’m just not sure by how much.
Cade,
You’re not wrong to have concerns, but I still like your chances (I’d say 90-95%). Since the PSAT changed with the class of 2017, Mississippi’s cutoff has only hit 215 once, and that was in a year where the Commended level was 212. Also, over that period the cutoff has always been within 4 points of the Commended level, with the exception of the class of 2022. That was the year of COVID cancellations, and Mississippi was less impacted than many states.
You are correct, though, that Mississippi is among the smaller states (although not Wyoming small) and can have larger moves than we’d see in California or New York. That’s a big change at your school, but I’ve seen similar changes that haven’t meant a wholesale shift at the state level. I’d stay optimistic!
Hi! I have an index of 218 and I live in Ohio. It looks like the index last year in Ohio was a 217. Do you think it would go hope to 2019 this year since there is such an upward trend? Or would stay at a 2017 / only go up to a 218? Really hoping so because then I can get semifinalist status!!
I think the Ohio cutoff is most likely to stay at 217 and is unlikely to go to 219. While scores are higher this year, the numbers don’t seem to hit those we saw in the classes of 2018-2020. It was 2018 and 2019 when Ohio last hit 219. I’d say your odds are 90%.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, I had a few questions I hope you don’t mind answering. First, I got a 221 index for Texas and according to the predictions it will be either 219 or 220. My first question is that if I do make semifinalist would a 1480 SAT qualify me for finalist? Also worth mentioning I have a 1520 super scored SAT. My second question is do you have an approximate date in September that the semifinalist cutoff scores come out for each state? I am applying early for some colleges and wanted to know whether to wait for cutoffs. Thank you!
Krish,
Congratulations, as I think you’re all set for qualifying as a Semifinalist! Your 1480 is likely good enough as a “confirming” score, but you can’t judge based only on the total score. The confirming score is a national cutoff and is generally set at the Commended score level. Use your SAT score to create a Selection Index — drop a zero, double RW, and add Math. You should be OK at 210 or higher. NMSC does not use superscores, but it will consider your best results.
NMSC mails results to schools at the end of August, but it doesn’t make any official announcements until the press embargo date in the second week of September (sorry, I don’t have the 2025 date handy). Compass sometimes learns of the cutoffs before that date. And your school may be able to tell you once it receives the Semifinalist letters.
Art,
What do you estimate the cutoff semifinalist score index to be for the Oct 2024 PSAT for Virginia? I think last year was 222.
– Mark B.
Mark,
I think the most likely is that Virginia sticks at 222. There is no history of Virginia’s cutoff going as high as 223, and the data we’ve seen so far don’t point to record high cutoffs. All of that said, Virginia surprised me last year with its jump to 222. I hope it doesn’t surprise me with a 223.