**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello!
I took the PSAT/NMSQT in October and was wondering how likely I am to become a Semi-Finalist. My Index score is 222, but I live in Massachusetts, so the odds of making the cutoff aren’t great. Is there any chance I’ll make it, or is it completely hopeless?
Keira,
Yes, I love Massachusetts, but it’s a tough place to earn Semifinalist status. If you want to take an optimistic view, I’d look at the fact that the classes of 2017 and 2018 had 222 cutoffs even in strong years nationally. I’d say that there is about a 40% chance that the MA cutoff settles back to 222. Good luck!
Hi Art,
Thank you for your information. My junior student in Washington got index of 221. May I know your thought about her chance of getting semifinalist for 2026? I have seen actual index cutoff for 2024 is 220, 2025 is 222, and you projected the likely cutoff of 221 for 2026. Thanks.
Julia
Julia,
Just seeing this now. Last year’s 222 was disconcerting, because it didn’t come with a big change at the national level (VA also saw a 3-point jump to 222). Was it something of a fluke or did Washington suddenly get more competitive? I usually take an historical view. The WA cutoff hit 222 for the classes of 2018, 2019, and 2025. So in the 9 years since the PSAT changed scoring, it has happened one-third of the time. In 2018 and 2019 we saw high scores in many states. Last year is harder to explain. I still think that 221 is most likely based on the historical record, but I wouldn’t put the odds of a 221 qualifying higher than about 60% – 65%.
Hello Mr. Sawyer, How do you rate my chances with a score of 215 in South Carolina? Also, are the cutoff numbers typically determined in April? Are they available anywhere before September? Thank you.
Kate,
South Carolina’s 8-point difference between its high and low cutoffs over the last decade put it near the top in terms of score variability. Just last year the cutoff jumped 5 points in a relatively flat year. The good news is that it has only twice crested 215, and in years that were more competitive nationally than this year. As you know, though, it’s not about the national numbers. There is still the chance that SC will make a 2-point jump. I’d say your chances are 70-80%. The only thing determined in April is the Commended cutoff. The Semifinalist cutoffs and lists are not released to high schools until the end of August (and most high schools don’t get them and distribute until the first couple of weeks of September). So 5.5 more months of waiting, I’m afraid. We try to determine the cutoffs once things start coming in around Labor Day.
Hello,
My daughter has an index score of 218 and it appears that this is probably good enough for finalist status in Iowa for 2026. But I know that the other criteria for finalist status include “validating” the PSAT score by achieving a “good enough” ACT or SAT score. I have not been able to find any information anywhere about how high the ACT/SAT score needs to be in order to validate that she should be granted finalist status. She currently has a 32 ACT which she achieved on a “practice” round as a Sophomore, but hopes to improve on that this Spring. Do you have any guidance on whether a 32 is likely to be accepted or will she need a higher score?
Jonathan,
Congratulations! The confirming score is usually set at the Commended cutoff. While we don’t know that score yet, we can assume that a 212 will be a safe score as an SAT Selection Index (calculated as you would a PSAT Selection Index by doubling the RW, adding the Math, and dividing by 10). I write a bit more about this process in our National Merit FAQ. The ACT makes things more complicated, because it needs to be converted to an SAT score.
You can use the concordance tables here to convert the Reading and English to an SAT RW score (table C2) and the ACT Math to an SAT Math score (Table B2). The Science score is ignored because there is no equivalent on the SAT. You can probably guess, then, that there is no way to immediately say that a 32 is “good enough,” since it is a rounded average of all the scores. I suspect that it will be, but you’ll need to do the conversions.
Thank you sir. Looks like her existing ACT score would result in SAT equivalent index of 214, so probably in good shape on this piece (32 Math, 32 English, 34 Reading).
Thanks for the help!
Great! Glad that I could help.
Any clues yet as to the cutoff for commended? Not sure when in April to expect this info to begin leaking. Thanks!
Jessica,
A parent today implied that they had heard 210 from the school, but I am awaiting further confirmation. Usually I hear something by mid-April.
Hello,
My son scored 217 in New York 🙁 Does he at least have a chance at Commended status or will the cutoff for commended be closer to 220?
Thanks,
Edena,
The Semifinalist cutoff for NY will be around 220, but the Commended cutoff is national and will fall around 210. Your son will be named a Commended Student in mid-September.
hi art, do you know when the commended scores will be confirmed for 2024 PSAT?
Ely,
Usually it leaks out mid-April.
Hello
My daughter index score is 221.Is this the good enough score to be finalist in New Jersey.Her March sat is score is 1550.Do you have any idea weather she will be able to qualify for finalist?
Sumi,
New Jersey is the most competitive state in the country and its Semifinalist cutoff rarely varies much year to year. We have to go back more than a dozen years to find a 221 cutoff. Unfortunately, I think your daughter’s score will fall just a little bit short this year. She will be named a Commended Student. The SAT score is not a factor at the Semifinalist stage.
Art – if the school was notified that 210 is the commended… how likely are we now for a 220 in Texas?
Michelle,
If the Commended is at 210, then it falls exactly where I expected it to fall, so it doesn’t really change much for Texas. It reduces the chances that we’d see something crazy like a 218 or 222, but doesn’t shift the balance much in the 219 – 221 range. I’d still keep odds at around 65-70%.
Ok one more questions. Hypothetically… because I am trying to understand the math a bit. If national students are scoring 4% approx of high scores above 1400 (of course we don’t know how many of those are upper 1400s-1520s). What would happen if Texas scores were only at 3% top scorers? Does that impact anything at all? Would you typically see a higher semi cut score or no change at all because we still don’t know what percent typically score at the top range of those top scores? You are so much smarter than I am and I am so interested in how this works for such a large state like Texas. (Sorry to be a pain, just interested in your thoughts)
We can make a pretty accurate assumption that the number of Texas students scoring at the Commended level or above is between 5,400 and 5,700. Of those, between 1600-1800 will make Semifinalist. As you say, we don’t know the most crucial factor — the exact distribution of high scores. It won’t be that different than in prior years — Texas didn’t go through any major changes. But even fluctuations in test form or the crowding around cutoff scores (some Selection Indexes are more common than others) can tip a score a point or so. I wish that I could say that we’ll know more before September, but we really won’t.
Hey Art,
My son got an index score of 218 in the state of Colorado. What are his chances for qualifying as a National Merit Semi-finalist?
Bill,
I think that it is close to a toss-up. Colorado has produced a number of surprises over the years. The 220s and 221 came in years where we saw higher inflation than in this year. But 219 is a real possibility, and the likelihood of a drop (i.e. 216 or 217) is not very high.
My son has a 224 and is in New Jersey, the highest state. I know that the estimate is 222-224, but I also know that scores have trended up this year. What do you think the odds are that it will increase to 225 and knock him out? I don’t think it’s ever happened, but if the inflation is that bad…. Also, I read that the schools know this information already, but my son’s counselor hasn’t leaked anything. Anyplace else to find out? Has anyone here learned what the cutoff for NJ is?
Cathy,
Congratulations to your son. There is absolutely no chance that we will see a cutoff of 225 this year — or, in my opinion, any year. The inflation is moderate compared to what we have seen in some years, and NJ sticks to its tight range of 222 and 223.
Schools learn about who is progressing (i.e. students who are at least Commended), but they definitely to not know the Semifinalist cutoffs. If they are leaked, we are usually the first (sometimes second) to hear about it. But I’ve never seen a leak earlier than late August.
Hi Art, Great to see that the prediction of 210 was spot on. I see that the “most likely” for Florida is still 218. Wondering if your % chance for that is still 80-90% (from a comment on 1/6/25). My senior son made it last year with a 219 (and got into UF so is getting the Benacquisto Scholarship which is HUGE) but my current 11th grader has a 218. And I thought waiting to find out last year if senior son qualified was stressful. LOL, Little did I know I’d be right back here on your page again! Any % chance update would be appreciated!
Liz,
I would stick with those estimates. I don’t think it will reach 219, but we can’t foreclose the possibility. Fingers crossed that you will soon (5 months?) have two Benacquisto Scholars in the family. [And welcome back!]
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the great info. Is there any chance in your models that Ohio would be higher than a 220 this year, or is that a safe score for SemiFinalist?
The last 3 years in a row the index in Ohio has been 9 pts above commended, which you have now said is 210 for Class of 2026, so wondering if that could possibly spike to 11 above commended based on your comments about what a strong year this is.
Thanks!
Chas,
I am assuming that you have (or your student has) a 220. If so, congratulations! No, Ohio won’t be exceeding 220. We don’t see large states like that blowing by their old records by 2 points. This is an up year, but it is not that wild.
Dear Mr. Sawyer,
I was wondering if the commended cutoff is confirmed officially yet by the NMSC at 210 because I got exactly a 210 and was hoping to make commended. Thank you so much!
Annie,
It is confirmed by multiple, highly-reliable sources. NMSC does not publicly come out and confirm the Commended level until September. But it’s 210. Congratulations on making Commended! (Sorry that you’ll have to wait to hear.)
Hi art: with this cut off (commended 210), would a SAT score of 750 M and 680 R/W? Trying to plan for NMF qualifications. Thanks.
Ely,
NMSC generally sets the confirming score need for NMF at the Commended level, Your SAT score has an SI of 68×2 + 75 = 211. It’s a little tight, but it should be sufficient. And getting a higher score doesn’t improve your chances once you make the minimum.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
There is a very good likelihood of a 224 being good for the Semifinalist cutoff in Illinois, correct? I assume that going up 5 points (to a 225) would be too drastic of a jump for a bigger state?
Thanks!
Jonah,
Congratulations! There is no chance of a 225 in Illinois. I’m even on record as saying that we will never see a 225 in any state.
What is the cut-off for National Hispanic Scholar? I couldn’t find it.
Elsa,
College Board has now confirmed that it has ended the NHRP.
https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org/help-center/why-did-college-board-make-changes-program-2025
Hi Art,
Thank you for all the data and assessment you continue to do for all of us. Two questions for you if you could ,
1) our kid has an index of 218 in Oregon. Curious on your take for likelihood to make SF. Your likely index for Oregon is 217 but the top of the range is 220.
2) curious why does it take this long for the state cutoffs to be set? All the data is known (number of kids that took the tests, scores, number of slots available per state) since last fall. any xls table should be able to calculate it pretty quickly :). There must be something I’m missing.
EC,
(1) Oregon has seen a wide range of cutoffs over the years and has also had some big jumps. That’s why I am a little cautious. I’d estimate that a 218 has a 75-80% chance of qualifying.
(2) Maybe the simplest answer is that National Merit rarely ever changes. The process is virtually identical to the one used in the 1970s. The longer answer is that it is probably more about the timeline than about the capability. Winter is when the organization is focused on Finalists. Spring is when it is focused on scholarship matching. School is out of session during the summer. That leaves the fall. Schools are asked to confirm student information in April and May, since there can be surprises about who is a junior, who forgot to mark a class year, or who is in the wrong state. Again, COULD they do things quicker in 2025? Absolutely! I also think that they would be much better off notifying students directly. Think of Youtube/TikTok acceptance videos. Set a deadline and email everyone at the same time or have them log in to a portal. After such a long wait, snail notifications to schools to pass along to students is so 1996.
Hi Art. Thank you so much for all of this information! With the commended cut off looking like it will be right where you thought, does it make you more or less comfortable with your Pennsylvania cut off prediction of 219? My son is right on the cut off so we are anxiously awaiting the results!
Tim,
I’m feeling pretty good about 219 in Pennsylvania. No, we still can’t rule out a 220, but the 210 Commended level makes it a bit less likely. I’d say a 219 is in the 75% range.
My daughter had to apply for alternate entry due to the local test site not informing us they were not giving the test until it was too late to register with another school. In Tennessee there were not many options to take the PSAT, most schools were for their students only. She took the SAT in March, but I am trying to find out if there is any way to figure out what her scores should be to qualify?
Katrina,
I’m sorry that your daughter’s PSAT experience was impacted. In terms of what the cutoff will be in Tennessee, you are just as in the dark as me and all of the regular entry students. I am hoping that it sticks to last year’s 217. We will start hearing about Semifinalist cutoffs around Labor Day. If she is at 219 or higher, I think she’ll be a lock.
If you want to calculate your daughter’s Selection Index, that I can help with. For a PSAT SI, you drop the trailing 0, double the RW and add the Math. So a 720 RW and 730 M would be a 72 x 2 + 73 = 217. An alternate entry SI is calculated the same way with one major caveat — because the PSAT maxes out at 760, SAT scores are capped at 760 per section. For example, if your daughter got a 720 RW and 780 M, her SI would be 72 x 2 + 76 = 220. Scores between 770 and 800 are always set to 760.
Hello,
Can you explain how the SAT confirming scores work/ finalist qualifications work? Do I need to match my PSAT SI? I got a 226 in Wisconsin, so I’m assuming Semifinalist and planning for Finalist qualifications. (Taking the SAT in June)
Thanks!
Lilly,
Congratulations! You do not need to match your score. The confirming score is generally set at the Commended level (210 this year) and is a national standard. I would imagine that you’ll make that easily. If you don’t nail the test in June, you can take the SAT as late as December for your Finalist qualification.
Hey,
I wanted to see what my chances are of becoming a National Merit Semifinalist in the state of Mississippi with a score of 214. I know the projected cutoff is 213, but looking at the numbers from just my school alone, we had 16 people make the cutoff of 212 last year and have 27 this year at that same score or above and 32 commended. I understand that in a small state like Mississippi, one school performing really well could affect the entire state’s cutoff—I’m just not sure by how much.
Cade,
You’re not wrong to have concerns, but I still like your chances (I’d say 90-95%). Since the PSAT changed with the class of 2017, Mississippi’s cutoff has only hit 215 once, and that was in a year where the Commended level was 212. Also, over that period the cutoff has always been within 4 points of the Commended level, with the exception of the class of 2022. That was the year of COVID cancellations, and Mississippi was less impacted than many states.
You are correct, though, that Mississippi is among the smaller states (although not Wyoming small) and can have larger moves than we’d see in California or New York. That’s a big change at your school, but I’ve seen similar changes that haven’t meant a wholesale shift at the state level. I’d stay optimistic!
Hi! I have an index of 218 and I live in Ohio. It looks like the index last year in Ohio was a 217. Do you think it would go hope to 2019 this year since there is such an upward trend? Or would stay at a 2017 / only go up to a 218? Really hoping so because then I can get semifinalist status!!
I think the Ohio cutoff is most likely to stay at 217 and is unlikely to go to 219. While scores are higher this year, the numbers don’t seem to hit those we saw in the classes of 2018-2020. It was 2018 and 2019 when Ohio last hit 219. I’d say your odds are 90%.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, I had a few questions I hope you don’t mind answering. First, I got a 221 index for Texas and according to the predictions it will be either 219 or 220. My first question is that if I do make semifinalist would a 1480 SAT qualify me for finalist? Also worth mentioning I have a 1520 super scored SAT. My second question is do you have an approximate date in September that the semifinalist cutoff scores come out for each state? I am applying early for some colleges and wanted to know whether to wait for cutoffs. Thank you!
Krish,
Congratulations, as I think you’re all set for qualifying as a Semifinalist! Your 1480 is likely good enough as a “confirming” score, but you can’t judge based only on the total score. The confirming score is a national cutoff and is generally set at the Commended score level. Use your SAT score to create a Selection Index — drop a zero, double RW, and add Math. You should be OK at 210 or higher. NMSC does not use superscores, but it will consider your best results.
NMSC mails results to schools at the end of August, but it doesn’t make any official announcements until the press embargo date in the second week of September (sorry, I don’t have the 2025 date handy). Compass sometimes learns of the cutoffs before that date. And your school may be able to tell you once it receives the Semifinalist letters.
Art,
What do you estimate the cutoff semifinalist score index to be for the Oct 2024 PSAT for Virginia? I think last year was 222.
– Mark B.
Mark,
I think the most likely is that Virginia sticks at 222. There is no history of Virginia’s cutoff going as high as 223, and the data we’ve seen so far don’t point to record high cutoffs. All of that said, Virginia surprised me last year with its jump to 222. I hope it doesn’t surprise me with a 223.