**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Your chart is so interesting to analyze – thank you for making the different columns sortable! I know scores are up overall this year, and I was looking at the chart across all states to see how that was reflected in your cutoff predictions. It looks like you’re predicting more score movement and score increases in the states that currently have lower cutoff scores than in the states that have higher cutoff scores. For example, by my rough count, in the jurisdictions that had the top 10 highest cutoff scores for the class of 2025, you are predicting a one point increase in 2 of those places – so an increase in 20% or 1 in 5 of those states (the other “top 10” jurisdictions are predicted to stay the same, except for one you predict to decrease by one point). Looking at the jurisdictions outside the “top 10 cutoff” jurisdictions, though, you predictions are that a significantly higher number will see their cutoff scores increase – I think I saw that you predicted higher cutoff scores in 29 of those jurisdictions (no changes in 14), which would be an increase in ~67% or 2 out of 3 of those states.
I know all of this is very much an art and not a science, but I was wondering if you could speak to how, in the face of higher scores overall, you think that it is generally speaking more likely to see cutoff score increases in states that don’t already have the highest, top-10 cutoff scores? Is this simply a function of the fact that when it comes to the very high cutoff states, there literally is only so high things can go, with 228 being a perfect score, so you’re less likely to see increases in those states even on overall ‘strong’ years? Or is there something you see in the data at a specific state level that explains the seeming difference?
Tony,
I always appreciate data crunching. Your finding is correct and is replicable over time. Since College Board and NMSC don’t release exact numbers at each SI, we have to work backwards and make some assumptions (we do have granular data for SAT scores prior to College Board shutting that down 8 or 9 years ago).
The cutoffs for high-scoring states are more stable. There are some clear reasons for this and some fuzzier reasons. One reason is that a number of the largest states fall in that group. Large states are more stable because variation in testing behavior is less likely. The other obvious reason that lower-scoring states are more likely to move with the tide is that several of them are effectively tied to the Commended cutoff.
The other driver is one you touch on — the distribution of scores and what I would refer to as the attenuation of the signal. The number of high scorers is driven far more by the number of 1400-1440 scorers than by the 1480-1520 scorers. While the distribution of SI scores is not purely normal, we see fewer and fewer students at each level (as with most truncated curves, the exception is that there are probably more 228s than 227s). A higher number of 224s is possible from one year to the next, but we’d have no way of knowing it from the available data. On the other hand, we can be relatively certain that there is movement in SI’s closer to the Commended level.
Let me give a real world example. I’ll take the average cutoff for each state from 2017 – 2025 (the period of the new scoring system) and sort those from highest to lowest. For the top third (17 states), the average swing from min to max over that period is 3 points. For the lowest third, the average swing is 6.5 points. The swing of the Commended cutoff is 5 points over that period. Let’s look at the results in those states from last year. The Commended cutoff went up by 2 points. The average cutoff of the highest cutoff states went up by only 0.8 points. For the lowest scoring states, the change was 2.4 points.
The signal we are using — the number of 1400-1520 scorers, which is an excellent predictor of the Commended cutoff — is more attenuated as one moves further away from the meaty part of the distribution, and the high scoring states also tend to have less state-specific variation — whether that is because of size or testing behavior. I don’t specifically try to make my changes lower or higher based on where the states fall, it just naturally falls out that way based on the historical data. Of course, there is the standard investment fund language of past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The class of 2025 in Virginia would vouch for that statement. Big moves can happen, they are just less likely.
Daughter’s score is delayed due to testing irregularity reported (there was a fire alarm). Does this adversely affect students eligibility if they did well ? I had never heard of this happening before.
Janet,
This is common in that sort of situation. Let me start off with: Don’t panic! College Board needs more time to evaluate the situation. There are cases where nothing happens and scores are eventually reported. There are also cases where this has resulted in voided scores. For an SAT, College Board would usually have students take a make-up exam. I’m not certain, but I don’t believe that they will do that this late in the game for the PSAT. Let’s say the worst case happens and your daughter has no opportunity to retake the PSAT. AFAIK, she would then be eligible to enter the NM program via alternate entry (i.e., with an SAT score). That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially since we don’t know how your daughter’s performance might have been negatively impacted by the fire alarm. You’ve got plenty of time before an Alternate Entry application needs to be filed, but you may want to reserve an SAT date or two for your daughter while you wait for a determination by College Board.
Thanks. Daughter was surprised she just got her scores. 219 in MS so she should be safe based on your predictions. Her brother was a National Merit Finalist two years ago so the sibling rivalry runs deep.
Congratulations to your daughter! She is definitely on her way.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the information. My kid has a selection index of 221, we are in Oregon, so fingers crossed that will be enough for Semi finalist status.
I am wondering what the next steps. I had tried to sign up for the Compass prep seminar but missed it due to a meeting at work.
What are your recommended next steps? is there any way we can get a video recording of the talk?
Lin,
It sure looks like your student will be a Semifinalist. I don’t see any chance of Oregon going to 222.
Sorry you missed the webinar. My partner Adam Ingersoll always puts on a great show. If the team recorded it, it will go up on our webinars page in a few days. It wasn’t specifically NMSP focused, so I can probably help with next steps here. They’re actually pretty simple.
Your student is going to need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score in order to qualify as a Finalist. That sounds more daunting than it is. The confirming level is set at the national Commended cutoff, so an SAT Selection Index of 212 should do it. That SAT can be taken any time between fall of sophomore year and December of senior year.
Your student also needs “a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12.” NMSC has never specified exactly what this means, but most Semifinalist do go on to the Finalist stage.
In September, you should receive a letter from your high school that will include a login to the Finalist application portal. Your student will fill out basic information and submit an essay (the prompt hasn’t changed in at least a decade and I believe is included on this Compass page). The school will provide a recommendation (“endorsement”) and officially submit the application by mid-October. Your student will also be asked to provide their first choice college. This should be chosen with an eye toward maximizing National Merit benefit rather than admission benefit (colleges don’t use the information that way). In other words, there is not much reason to choose a college that does not provide National Merit awards unless the student is confident that they are not considering any colleges that provide such awards. The good news is that the choice can be updated until matches are made in the spring. Finalists will be announced in February 2026, and scholarship decisions will happen in March – May.
Hi Art,
My daughter got a 218 index score on the PSAT in Kansas, Your range says the index score could go up to 219. Is it likely that it will do so for the class of 2026?
Thank you,
BI
Bijoy,
I do not think it is likely. Kansas is a small state (in terms of PSAT takers) and it has hit 219 before, so I didn’t want to rule it out. I’d say that there is at least a 90% chance of a 218 qualifying.
Hello, my friend got a 211 for the selection index in Arkansas, what are the chances the Arkansas cutoff drops to that level?
Aidan,
Arkansas has moved in the 210-215 range, so there is a chance. I’ll admit that I would be a little surprised, because Arkansas usually stays a few points above the Commended cutoff, and I see that cutoff as 210 this year. I’d rank “a little surprised” as 10%.
Hi Art,
I saw you move your prediction for California up from 221 to 222. Have you changed your odds for 222 making the cutoff? Thank you!
Ana,
It’s hard to know what to make of California. Looking at its full historical performance, 222 seemed to fit as most likely. But by recent measures, maybe it’s a reach. The UC policy has led to fewer schools offering the PSAT. Is CA’s new natural range 220/221 or is it 221/222? This year may tell us. No, I haven’t changed my odds on a 222 qualifying. I still think there is very little chance of California hitting 223.
Hello Art! Thank you for this article. It is very helpful. . My son got a 221 in California, and does not like your predicted score change! Would you please tell us the chances you would put on 221 being the passing score?
Carin,
My apologies to your son! Please let him know that I am rooting against myself. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s something of a coin toss between 221 and 222. In fact, that’s probably how I’d rank it – 50/50. I think 222 is the “most likely” in part because I think 220 is a more likely possibility than 223.
Hi Art! Daughter got a 222 in CA this year and based on your prediction, she pretty much has it, but someone mentioned on a social media site (that shall not be named )that they were a 223 in CA and that they were definitely the cutoff. I pressed further and they ghosted me, so it could have been a troll, but it definitely got me concerned. The 221 you mention above is confirmed, correct? Thanks for assuaging my concerns.
Baeth,
For the class of 2026, no one knows any cutoffs because they don’t exist yet. Anything about the cutoffs is either informed speculation or uninformed speculation. I’ll make the immodest claim that I fall in the first camp, but that doesn’t make me right. “She pretty much has it” feels fair. She will likely qualify, but I don’t think that we can completely rule out a 223 cutoff. There seems to be upward pressure this year. Enough to make CA’s cutoff jump 2 points? I doubt it. I think her odds are in the 90-95% range.
How likely is it that Tennessee’s cutoff will be 219 next year? Thanks!
Sunny,
I think 219 is the highest that Tennessee’s cutoff will go. I think it is more likely that the actual cutoff will be 218, but there is an extremely high probability that it will come in at or below 219.
Hey Art! I know you probably get a lot of these but was wondering where my 218 index in Oregon would put me. I know Oregon is tough to predict but I was looking at past years and 218 seemed to be a solid 2 points higher. Would there be a bigger jump for 2026? Is it likely to go upto 219? What are my chance of being a semi-finalist?
Sid,
Based on the trend seen in Oregon PSAT taking that I referred to in a prior comment, I think it very unlikely that Oregon will go to 219. As you say, it is a tricky state to predict. It has seen high cutoffs in the past, but the shift to state-funded PreACT will have an impact. I still felt the need to admit that we can’t be sure about this and set the maximum range at 220. If you go by what Oregon has done in the past, then you might say that a 218 has a 60% chance. If you go by where I think Oregon is today, I think you’ve got a 90% chance.
Hello, what are the chances scoring a 209 could get me commended?
Thanks!
Al,
The cutoff is almost certainly in the 209-211 range. Of those scores, I think 210 is the most likely. So I’d have to put your chances at about 25%.
My son’s got 218 and we are in Florida. Your prediction for FL up from 217 to 220. What’s the chance of going to 219+?
Maggie,
I think I’ve said in earlier posts that the chances of the cutoff staying at or below 218 is at least 70%. I won’t contradict myself here.
Hey Art. Great write up and analysis. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and putting your opinion out there. How accurate have your predictions been in past years? Do scores ever fall out of your predicted range? What’s the most you’ve ever been off by?
Mike,
In terms of hitting the “most likely” on the head all of the time, that’s a fool’s errand. I explore that in this comment.
In terms of estimated ranges, the ever-increasing data on the revised PSAT (the 1520 scale that was introduced for the class of 2017) and on the correlation between high scorers and Commended cutoff mean that I won’t miss many. It’s generally going to be a smaller state with large movements. I try not to have the ranges meaninglessly large, because that doesn’t provide much information. I can’t say that I’ve tracked the biggest miss ever. I’d imagine it was Rhode Island or Alaska. I didn’t see South Carolina’s 209 coming two years ago. When there is no precedent for something, it is going to create some surprises. For the really large states, their ranges are pretty well-established by this point.
Hi, Art,
I am so impressed with your thoughtful analysis and engagement. I see the estimated range for Florida to be 216-220. My daughter got a 220. Do you feel fairly certain that SI will make it?
Thank you!
Theresa,
Thank you for the kind words. Yes, I feel confident that your daughter will be named a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hello Art,
Thanks for all your blog posts and advice that you offer. My daughter got a 1500 PSAT score and we are in NJ. Her NMS index is 224. Any thoughts of the NMS cutoff for NJ going up to 225 for the class of 2026.
Sandra,
I’m sticking with my “we’ll never see a 225” prediction — at least until the scale is changed. There just aren’t enough scores in that range to ever build out a full class of Semifinalists. Congratulations to your daughter!
Hi,
Do you think a 220 selection index is likely for semifinalist status in CT? Or will it continue to remain 221 like last year?
Thanks!
VJ,
Only New Jersey has a more stable cutoff than CT’s. For that reason — and the fact that this seems to be a strong year for scores — I think it’s more likely that CT will stay at 221. But we definitely can’t discount the possibility of a 220. I’d say about a 20-25% chance of CT ticking down.
Hi,
If a student has the same score as the cutoff (a score of 220 and a cutoff of 220, for example), would they be qualified, or do they need to score above the cutoff?
Dylan,
They would qualify at 220 in your example. Every student at or above a cutoff qualifies.
My daughter SI score is 219 in Ohio. Do you think she made semifinalist? I saw you put range between 215-219. I assume you don’t think the cutoff score will be out of that range. Thank you for your answer.
Steve,
I think there is a very slim chance that it could be out of that range. Ohio has never seen a 220 cutoff. It falls in my “large” state group that generally sees smaller movements. It has gone as high as 219 in 2 out of the last 9 years, and those years had more 1400-1520 scores than we are seeing this year. So while I might hold back from saying that a 219 is a guarantee of qualifying, it’s at 99%.
Hello Art,
I scored a 222 in Virginia. My school hasn’t had a semifinalist in two years; this year, however, we have 3 potential candidates out of under 50 students scoring over the previous threshold. What do you think my odds are of making national merit.
Thank you!
Henry,
I wouldn’t worry too much that your class has done particularly well at your school. It’s not impossible, of course, that there has been some off mis-scaling that created more super-high scorers, but I think it is unlikely to be the case. There is always a chance that Virginia moves to a 223 cutoff, but it has never hit that level before. I think your odds are 90-95%.
Hi Art – Thanks for all this information. Do you think a 220 selection index is likely for semifinalist status in CO?
Thanks!
Andy,
We saw Colorado’s cutoff at 221 in the class of 2019, but scores were abnormally high that year. I doubt that we will see it hit that level this year. On the other hand, I don’t think that we can completely rule it out. I’d say 220 has at least a 95% chance.
Hello Art,
I hope you are doing well. My son received a 214 and we live in Louisiana. What are the chances that he receives the NMSQT semifinalist status? Thank you!
Rudra,
If we look at recency, then 214 is strong. But I also think we need to look at years where we saw more high scores than we have seen in a while. That’s why I bumped my most likely to 215. I think there is a slightly better chance that Louisiana moves up than stays the same. I would put 214 at about 35%.
Hi Art,
I love the analysis. I am wondering about my son who scored a 216 in Maine, Your range says the cutoff may be as high as 217. What do you think the odds are a 216 will suffice?
Thanks,
Tim
Tim,
I think the odds are quite good. Maine has hit 217 only 1 year in the last 9, and that was the year where we saw universally high cutoffs. But that is also why I left 217 in the range — Maine is a small state that can move around (although in participant size Maine is a medium-sized state. It has higher than average participation.). I’d say the odds of a 216 qualifying are 95%.
Hey Art,
I was wondering if your predictions are almost 100 percent accurate and if the commended cutoff was ever lower (or) higher than your prediction. For example, did you predict correctly last year and over the past few years? I understand that you are working with a significant amount of data, and I am extremely thankful for the work that you are providing us with.
Ryan,
I don’t think a Commended cutoff has ever fallen outside of my predicted range. If you mean has my most likely always been right, absolutely not. Last year I was expecting the Commended cutoff to go to 209, but it only moved to 208, for example. Semifinalist cutoffs have fallen outside of my predicted range before. That’s most likely in a small state and becomes less likely as we’ve gotten more data over time.
I looked at why it is impossible to be accurate on the “most likely” in this post.
Hey Art! Any chance you have the percentages of high scorers from last year in the state of Texas? Not sure if you have that data… I searched everywhere for it online.
Michelle,
If you mean class of 2025, then it was 2% (College Board doesn’t publish the exact number). If you mean this most recent test, no. College Board will publish that next fall. Keep in mind that any percentiles on the score report are for prior years, so they do not indicate anything about what we will see for this year’s cutoff.
Does PSAT performance generally improve from sophomore to junior year? My d scored 221 in NJ as a sophomore this year (has not practiced). What’s the best way to help her ensure she meets or exceeds that threshold for NJ?
ET,
Scores generally improve, but the higher the sophomore score, the less likely it is to improve — alas, regression to the mean is real. For example, a student getting a perfect score in sophomore year is undoubtedly talented, but everything also went perfectly for them on the day of the test. Things might not go as perfectly on the junior year test. College Board doesn’t release specific figures on this. The nearest I could find was data from about a decade ago on junior year to senior year SAT performance. Students scoring 680-720 on the junior year SAT (the highest range reported) actually averaged a 12 point decrease for the first SAT taken in senior year.
She should prepare for the junior PSAT in the same way that she would prepare for the SAT: either through self-directed study (there are numerous resources, including the joint partnership between College Board and Khan Academy), through a class (it should be one that welcomes high scorers), or through one-on-one tutoring.
Hi Art,
My daughter received 218 in Missouri. What is her likely chance for NMSQT?
Arti,
Missouri’s cutoff has never gone as high as 218, and I see no indication it will jump 2 points ahead of its previous record. I’d say her chances are 99.9%.
Dear Mr. Sawyer,
I have a question. I understand that you need SAT, GPA, applicant essay, and a letter of recommendation from the principal to become a National Merit winner. How important is the letter of recommendation from the principal here? In other words, is it correct to think that when the principal does not write a letter of recommendation or makes a bad comment (if there is something that the principal does not feel very good about my child), it is hard to become an NMSC? Or is it possible to get a letter of recommendation from a school counselor instead of a letter of recommendation from the principal?
Flavia,
NMSC doesn’t say how important the letter of recommendation is, and I want to be careful about speculating. NMSC does allow the recommendation to come from the counselor, but only if the principal designates them as the recommender (many do). I would check with your student’s college counselor about how the school handles things. I don’t know that I recommend that you do so at this time. It’s still 9-10 months away, and lobbying now may be premature.
Here is NMSC’s requirement language: “Be fully endorsed for Finalist standing and recommended for a National Merit Scholarship by your high school principal
(or school official designated by the principal). Your high school official will provide their endorsement when they complete your application, but they also reserve the right to revoke their endorsement at any point in the competition.”