After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Your chart is so interesting to analyze – thank you for making the different columns sortable! I know scores are up overall this year, and I was looking at the chart across all states to see how that was reflected in your cutoff predictions. It looks like you’re predicting more score movement and score increases in the states that currently have lower cutoff scores than in the states that have higher cutoff scores. For example, by my rough count, in the jurisdictions that had the top 10 highest cutoff scores for the class of 2025, you are predicting a one point increase in 2 of those places – so an increase in 20% or 1 in 5 of those states (the other “top 10” jurisdictions are predicted to stay the same, except for one you predict to decrease by one point). Looking at the jurisdictions outside the “top 10 cutoff” jurisdictions, though, you predictions are that a significantly higher number will see their cutoff scores increase – I think I saw that you predicted higher cutoff scores in 29 of those jurisdictions (no changes in 14), which would be an increase in ~67% or 2 out of 3 of those states.
I know all of this is very much an art and not a science, but I was wondering if you could speak to how, in the face of higher scores overall, you think that it is generally speaking more likely to see cutoff score increases in states that don’t already have the highest, top-10 cutoff scores? Is this simply a function of the fact that when it comes to the very high cutoff states, there literally is only so high things can go, with 228 being a perfect score, so you’re less likely to see increases in those states even on overall ‘strong’ years? Or is there something you see in the data at a specific state level that explains the seeming difference?
Tony,
I always appreciate data crunching. Your finding is correct and is replicable over time. Since College Board and NMSC don’t release exact numbers at each SI, we have to work backwards and make some assumptions (we do have granular data for SAT scores prior to College Board shutting that down 8 or 9 years ago).
The cutoffs for high-scoring states are more stable. There are some clear reasons for this and some fuzzier reasons. One reason is that a number of the largest states fall in that group. Large states are more stable because variation in testing behavior is less likely. The other obvious reason that lower-scoring states are more likely to move with the tide is that several of them are effectively tied to the Commended cutoff.
The other driver is one you touch on — the distribution of scores and what I would refer to as the attenuation of the signal. The number of high scorers is driven far more by the number of 1400-1440 scorers than by the 1480-1520 scorers. While the distribution of SI scores is not purely normal, we see fewer and fewer students at each level (as with most truncated curves, the exception is that there are probably more 228s than 227s). A higher number of 224s is possible from one year to the next, but we’d have no way of knowing it from the available data. On the other hand, we can be relatively certain that there is movement in SI’s closer to the Commended level.
Let me give a real world example. I’ll take the average cutoff for each state from 2017 – 2025 (the period of the new scoring system) and sort those from highest to lowest. For the top third (17 states), the average swing from min to max over that period is 3 points. For the lowest third, the average swing is 6.5 points. The swing of the Commended cutoff is 5 points over that period. Let’s look at the results in those states from last year. The Commended cutoff went up by 2 points. The average cutoff of the highest cutoff states went up by only 0.8 points. For the lowest scoring states, the change was 2.4 points.
The signal we are using — the number of 1400-1520 scorers, which is an excellent predictor of the Commended cutoff — is more attenuated as one moves further away from the meaty part of the distribution, and the high scoring states also tend to have less state-specific variation — whether that is because of size or testing behavior. I don’t specifically try to make my changes lower or higher based on where the states fall, it just naturally falls out that way based on the historical data. Of course, there is the standard investment fund language of past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The class of 2025 in Virginia would vouch for that statement. Big moves can happen, they are just less likely.
Daughter’s score is delayed due to testing irregularity reported (there was a fire alarm). Does this adversely affect students eligibility if they did well ? I had never heard of this happening before.
Janet,
This is common in that sort of situation. Let me start off with: Don’t panic! College Board needs more time to evaluate the situation. There are cases where nothing happens and scores are eventually reported. There are also cases where this has resulted in voided scores. For an SAT, College Board would usually have students take a make-up exam. I’m not certain, but I don’t believe that they will do that this late in the game for the PSAT. Let’s say the worst case happens and your daughter has no opportunity to retake the PSAT. AFAIK, she would then be eligible to enter the NM program via alternate entry (i.e., with an SAT score). That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially since we don’t know how your daughter’s performance might have been negatively impacted by the fire alarm. You’ve got plenty of time before an Alternate Entry application needs to be filed, but you may want to reserve an SAT date or two for your daughter while you wait for a determination by College Board.
Thanks. Daughter was surprised she just got her scores. 219 in MS so she should be safe based on your predictions. Her brother was a National Merit Finalist two years ago so the sibling rivalry runs deep.
Congratulations to your daughter! She is definitely on her way.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the information. My kid has a selection index of 221, we are in Oregon, so fingers crossed that will be enough for Semi finalist status.
I am wondering what the next steps. I had tried to sign up for the Compass prep seminar but missed it due to a meeting at work.
What are your recommended next steps? is there any way we can get a video recording of the talk?
Lin,
It sure looks like your student will be a Semifinalist. I don’t see any chance of Oregon going to 222.
Sorry you missed the webinar. My partner Adam Ingersoll always puts on a great show. If the team recorded it, it will go up on our webinars page in a few days. It wasn’t specifically NMSP focused, so I can probably help with next steps here. They’re actually pretty simple.
Your student is going to need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score in order to qualify as a Finalist. That sounds more daunting than it is. The confirming level is set at the national Commended cutoff, so an SAT Selection Index of 212 should do it. That SAT can be taken any time between fall of sophomore year and December of senior year.
Your student also needs “a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12.” NMSC has never specified exactly what this means, but most Semifinalist do go on to the Finalist stage.
In September, you should receive a letter from your high school that will include a login to the Finalist application portal. Your student will fill out basic information and submit an essay (the prompt hasn’t changed in at least a decade and I believe is included on this Compass page). The school will provide a recommendation (“endorsement”) and officially submit the application by mid-October. Your student will also be asked to provide their first choice college. This should be chosen with an eye toward maximizing National Merit benefit rather than admission benefit (colleges don’t use the information that way). In other words, there is not much reason to choose a college that does not provide National Merit awards unless the student is confident that they are not considering any colleges that provide such awards. The good news is that the choice can be updated until matches are made in the spring. Finalists will be announced in February 2026, and scholarship decisions will happen in March – May.
Hi Art,
My daughter got a 218 index score on the PSAT in Kansas, Your range says the index score could go up to 219. Is it likely that it will do so for the class of 2026?
Thank you,
BI
Bijoy,
I do not think it is likely. Kansas is a small state (in terms of PSAT takers) and it has hit 219 before, so I didn’t want to rule it out. I’d say that there is at least a 90% chance of a 218 qualifying.
Hello, my friend got a 211 for the selection index in Arkansas, what are the chances the Arkansas cutoff drops to that level?
Aidan,
Arkansas has moved in the 210-215 range, so there is a chance. I’ll admit that I would be a little surprised, because Arkansas usually stays a few points above the Commended cutoff, and I see that cutoff as 210 this year. I’d rank “a little surprised” as 10%.
Hi Art,
I saw you move your prediction for California up from 221 to 222. Have you changed your odds for 222 making the cutoff? Thank you!
Ana,
It’s hard to know what to make of California. Looking at its full historical performance, 222 seemed to fit as most likely. But by recent measures, maybe it’s a reach. The UC policy has led to fewer schools offering the PSAT. Is CA’s new natural range 220/221 or is it 221/222? This year may tell us. No, I haven’t changed my odds on a 222 qualifying. I still think there is very little chance of California hitting 223.
Hello Art! Thank you for this article. It is very helpful. . My son got a 221 in California, and does not like your predicted score change! Would you please tell us the chances you would put on 221 being the passing score?
Carin,
My apologies to your son! Please let him know that I am rooting against myself. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s something of a coin toss between 221 and 222. In fact, that’s probably how I’d rank it – 50/50. I think 222 is the “most likely” in part because I think 220 is a more likely possibility than 223.
Hi Art! Daughter got a 222 in CA this year and based on your prediction, she pretty much has it, but someone mentioned on a social media site (that shall not be named )that they were a 223 in CA and that they were definitely the cutoff. I pressed further and they ghosted me, so it could have been a troll, but it definitely got me concerned. The 221 you mention above is confirmed, correct? Thanks for assuaging my concerns.
Baeth,
For the class of 2026, no one knows any cutoffs because they don’t exist yet. Anything about the cutoffs is either informed speculation or uninformed speculation. I’ll make the immodest claim that I fall in the first camp, but that doesn’t make me right. “She pretty much has it” feels fair. She will likely qualify, but I don’t think that we can completely rule out a 223 cutoff. There seems to be upward pressure this year. Enough to make CA’s cutoff jump 2 points? I doubt it. I think her odds are in the 90-95% range.
How likely is it that Tennessee’s cutoff will be 219 next year? Thanks!
Sunny,
I think 219 is the highest that Tennessee’s cutoff will go. I think it is more likely that the actual cutoff will be 218, but there is an extremely high probability that it will come in at or below 219.
Hey Art! I know you probably get a lot of these but was wondering where my 218 index in Oregon would put me. I know Oregon is tough to predict but I was looking at past years and 218 seemed to be a solid 2 points higher. Would there be a bigger jump for 2026? Is it likely to go upto 219? What are my chance of being a semi-finalist?
Sid,
Based on the trend seen in Oregon PSAT taking that I referred to in a prior comment, I think it very unlikely that Oregon will go to 219. As you say, it is a tricky state to predict. It has seen high cutoffs in the past, but the shift to state-funded PreACT will have an impact. I still felt the need to admit that we can’t be sure about this and set the maximum range at 220. If you go by what Oregon has done in the past, then you might say that a 218 has a 60% chance. If you go by where I think Oregon is today, I think you’ve got a 90% chance.
Hello, what are the chances scoring a 209 could get me commended?
Thanks!
Al,
The cutoff is almost certainly in the 209-211 range. Of those scores, I think 210 is the most likely. So I’d have to put your chances at about 25%.
My son’s got 218 and we are in Florida. Your prediction for FL up from 217 to 220. What’s the chance of going to 219+?
Maggie,
I think I’ve said in earlier posts that the chances of the cutoff staying at or below 218 is at least 70%. I won’t contradict myself here.
Hey Art. Great write up and analysis. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and putting your opinion out there. How accurate have your predictions been in past years? Do scores ever fall out of your predicted range? What’s the most you’ve ever been off by?
Mike,
In terms of hitting the “most likely” on the head all of the time, that’s a fool’s errand. I explore that in this comment.
In terms of estimated ranges, the ever-increasing data on the revised PSAT (the 1520 scale that was introduced for the class of 2017) and on the correlation between high scorers and Commended cutoff mean that I won’t miss many. It’s generally going to be a smaller state with large movements. I try not to have the ranges meaninglessly large, because that doesn’t provide much information. I can’t say that I’ve tracked the biggest miss ever. I’d imagine it was Rhode Island or Alaska. I didn’t see South Carolina’s 209 coming two years ago. When there is no precedent for something, it is going to create some surprises. For the really large states, their ranges are pretty well-established by this point.
Hi, Art,
I am so impressed with your thoughtful analysis and engagement. I see the estimated range for Florida to be 216-220. My daughter got a 220. Do you feel fairly certain that SI will make it?
Thank you!
Theresa,
Thank you for the kind words. Yes, I feel confident that your daughter will be named a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hello Art,
Thanks for all your blog posts and advice that you offer. My daughter got a 1500 PSAT score and we are in NJ. Her NMS index is 224. Any thoughts of the NMS cutoff for NJ going up to 225 for the class of 2026.
Sandra,
I’m sticking with my “we’ll never see a 225” prediction — at least until the scale is changed. There just aren’t enough scores in that range to ever build out a full class of Semifinalists. Congratulations to your daughter!
Hi,
Do you think a 220 selection index is likely for semifinalist status in CT? Or will it continue to remain 221 like last year?
Thanks!
VJ,
Only New Jersey has a more stable cutoff than CT’s. For that reason — and the fact that this seems to be a strong year for scores — I think it’s more likely that CT will stay at 221. But we definitely can’t discount the possibility of a 220. I’d say about a 20-25% chance of CT ticking down.
Hi,
If a student has the same score as the cutoff (a score of 220 and a cutoff of 220, for example), would they be qualified, or do they need to score above the cutoff?
Dylan,
They would qualify at 220 in your example. Every student at or above a cutoff qualifies.
My daughter SI score is 219 in Ohio. Do you think she made semifinalist? I saw you put range between 215-219. I assume you don’t think the cutoff score will be out of that range. Thank you for your answer.
Steve,
I think there is a very slim chance that it could be out of that range. Ohio has never seen a 220 cutoff. It falls in my “large” state group that generally sees smaller movements. It has gone as high as 219 in 2 out of the last 9 years, and those years had more 1400-1520 scores than we are seeing this year. So while I might hold back from saying that a 219 is a guarantee of qualifying, it’s at 99%.
Hello Art,
I scored a 222 in Virginia. My school hasn’t had a semifinalist in two years; this year, however, we have 3 potential candidates out of under 50 students scoring over the previous threshold. What do you think my odds are of making national merit.
Thank you!
Henry,
I wouldn’t worry too much that your class has done particularly well at your school. It’s not impossible, of course, that there has been some off mis-scaling that created more super-high scorers, but I think it is unlikely to be the case. There is always a chance that Virginia moves to a 223 cutoff, but it has never hit that level before. I think your odds are 90-95%.
Hi Art – Thanks for all this information. Do you think a 220 selection index is likely for semifinalist status in CO?
Thanks!
Andy,
We saw Colorado’s cutoff at 221 in the class of 2019, but scores were abnormally high that year. I doubt that we will see it hit that level this year. On the other hand, I don’t think that we can completely rule it out. I’d say 220 has at least a 95% chance.
Hello Art,
I hope you are doing well. My son received a 214 and we live in Louisiana. What are the chances that he receives the NMSQT semifinalist status? Thank you!
Rudra,
If we look at recency, then 214 is strong. But I also think we need to look at years where we saw more high scores than we have seen in a while. That’s why I bumped my most likely to 215. I think there is a slightly better chance that Louisiana moves up than stays the same. I would put 214 at about 35%.
Hi Art,
I love the analysis. I am wondering about my son who scored a 216 in Maine, Your range says the cutoff may be as high as 217. What do you think the odds are a 216 will suffice?
Thanks,
Tim
Tim,
I think the odds are quite good. Maine has hit 217 only 1 year in the last 9, and that was the year where we saw universally high cutoffs. But that is also why I left 217 in the range — Maine is a small state that can move around (although in participant size Maine is a medium-sized state. It has higher than average participation.). I’d say the odds of a 216 qualifying are 95%.
Hey Art,
I was wondering if your predictions are almost 100 percent accurate and if the commended cutoff was ever lower (or) higher than your prediction. For example, did you predict correctly last year and over the past few years? I understand that you are working with a significant amount of data, and I am extremely thankful for the work that you are providing us with.
Ryan,
I don’t think a Commended cutoff has ever fallen outside of my predicted range. If you mean has my most likely always been right, absolutely not. Last year I was expecting the Commended cutoff to go to 209, but it only moved to 208, for example. Semifinalist cutoffs have fallen outside of my predicted range before. That’s most likely in a small state and becomes less likely as we’ve gotten more data over time.
I looked at why it is impossible to be accurate on the “most likely” in this post.
Hey Art! Any chance you have the percentages of high scorers from last year in the state of Texas? Not sure if you have that data… I searched everywhere for it online.
Michelle,
If you mean class of 2025, then it was 2% (College Board doesn’t publish the exact number). If you mean this most recent test, no. College Board will publish that next fall. Keep in mind that any percentiles on the score report are for prior years, so they do not indicate anything about what we will see for this year’s cutoff.
Does PSAT performance generally improve from sophomore to junior year? My d scored 221 in NJ as a sophomore this year (has not practiced). What’s the best way to help her ensure she meets or exceeds that threshold for NJ?
ET,
Scores generally improve, but the higher the sophomore score, the less likely it is to improve — alas, regression to the mean is real. For example, a student getting a perfect score in sophomore year is undoubtedly talented, but everything also went perfectly for them on the day of the test. Things might not go as perfectly on the junior year test. College Board doesn’t release specific figures on this. The nearest I could find was data from about a decade ago on junior year to senior year SAT performance. Students scoring 680-720 on the junior year SAT (the highest range reported) actually averaged a 12 point decrease for the first SAT taken in senior year.
She should prepare for the junior PSAT in the same way that she would prepare for the SAT: either through self-directed study (there are numerous resources, including the joint partnership between College Board and Khan Academy), through a class (it should be one that welcomes high scorers), or through one-on-one tutoring.
Hi Art,
My daughter received 218 in Missouri. What is her likely chance for NMSQT?
Arti,
Missouri’s cutoff has never gone as high as 218, and I see no indication it will jump 2 points ahead of its previous record. I’d say her chances are 99.9%.
Dear Mr. Sawyer,
I have a question. I understand that you need SAT, GPA, applicant essay, and a letter of recommendation from the principal to become a National Merit winner. How important is the letter of recommendation from the principal here? In other words, is it correct to think that when the principal does not write a letter of recommendation or makes a bad comment (if there is something that the principal does not feel very good about my child), it is hard to become an NMSC? Or is it possible to get a letter of recommendation from a school counselor instead of a letter of recommendation from the principal?
Flavia,
NMSC doesn’t say how important the letter of recommendation is, and I want to be careful about speculating. NMSC does allow the recommendation to come from the counselor, but only if the principal designates them as the recommender (many do). I would check with your student’s college counselor about how the school handles things. I don’t know that I recommend that you do so at this time. It’s still 9-10 months away, and lobbying now may be premature.
Here is NMSC’s requirement language: “Be fully endorsed for Finalist standing and recommended for a National Merit Scholarship by your high school principal
(or school official designated by the principal). Your high school official will provide their endorsement when they complete your application, but they also reserve the right to revoke their endorsement at any point in the competition.”