National Merit Semifinalists and Commended Students by State

5 Comments

• Gary says:

  April 24, 2017 at 8:17 am

  Art,

  We are from Florida and our son scored 218 which appears to be borderline. However, in the 2014-2015 report above the ratio of commended students to semifinalist is significantly low. How does this impact the cutoff for Florida.

  Thanks

  Reply
  • Art Sawyer says:

    April 24, 2017 at 12:19 pm

    Gary,
    Thanks for paying such close attention to the numbers. The ratio doesn’t directly impact the cutoff; it’s more of an indicator. Semifinalists are allocated based on high school population. In 2014-2015, that was about 0.5% of all juniors in a state. Florida was the 4th largest state and saw the 4th most Semifinalists. Commended Students are not allocated. How many Commended a state ends up with depends on a) how many students took the PSAT b) how strong those students were and c) how many of those students ended up as NMSF rather than Commended. Florida’s PSAT taking rate is not as high as in some other states, so it ranked 6th in entrants. Those entrants also achieved honors at a slightly lower rate (about 2.9% were NMSF or Commended versus a national average of 3.6%). The net result of everything I just threw at you is that Florida ended up with a low Commended to SF ratio. What could impact Florida’s cutoff is if the state suddenly increased its percentage of PSAT-takers (in particular, high scoring test-takers). Florida has been emphasizing state-paid testing, but I think they have had some budget issues with full implementation. I am not aware of any major changes for the class of 2018.

    Reply
• Gary says:

  April 25, 2017 at 11:59 am

  Art,

  Thank you for your reply. I just talked to the National Merit Corporation and asked specific questions regarding last year’s test results for Florida and got the following responses:
  1) The number of semifinalist…..879
  2) The number of commended……1431
  3) The number of entrants…….69500

  It is interesting to note the increase in commended students from the test year you provided. The number of semifinalists and entrants appears to have changed only modestly. The increase in the commended cutoff would have the effect of lowering the number of commended students to be more in line with the test year you observed. This could mean that changes in the semifinalist cutoff may not change as much as predicted. What do you think?

  Thanks

  Reply
  • Art Sawyer says:

    April 25, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    Gary,
    Thanks for the data on the class of 2017. It prompted me to see if NMSC has published a more current Annual Report than the one I published. It now has the 2015-2016 report available (their printed reports take forever to come out) on the class of 2016. Here are the Florida numbers:
    Entrants 69,066
    Commended 1,400
    Semifinalist 807

    It looks like the class of 2015 was an anomaly. I went back and looked at the classes of 2012, 2013, and 2014, and they are closer to that of 2015 and 2016 than they are to 2015. It does look like Florida hit a recent high last year for Commended. I don’t think we can tell much from that. If we read it as “Florida seems to be doing better in honored students,” then I’d actually be concerned about more upward pressure on the NMSF cutoff, not less. Compared to the class of 2016 data, though, the change is negligible.

    Reply
• Elly says:

  July 19, 2022 at 6:44 pm

  Mr. Sawyer,
  I have been following your analysis on PSAT, it is the most comprehensive one out there. It must be a very challenging task since the organizer does not share adequate information. Thank you so much for your insight.

  Reply