National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2027

*** We are crowdsourcing all of the Semifinalist cutoffs. If you receive word, please post in the Comments. ***

September 7: Massachusetts cutoff lowered to <= 221. Kansas (<= 212) and Minnesota (<= 214) appear to be at record lows.

September 4: The first report from North Carolina is a student qualifying with a 218. Indiana confirmed at 215.

September 3: Missouri and Wisconsin are confirmed at 214 and 212, respectively. Kentucky is now down to <= 215. West Virginia added at <= 209. South Carolina updated to <= 213.

September 2: Idaho is now listed as <= 211 based on a new report (earlier listed as = 213). Illinois is confirmed at 218. Colorado added at <= 218. Report from a DC-area forum that a student qualified in VA with a 221. Georgia student qualified with a 217. A Washington student reported falling short with a 220. A Maryland student made Semifinalist with a 222, but 220 did not qualify. Kansas is <= 219. We now know that a 214 qualified in Missouri and a 216 qualified in South Carolina. A 220 qualified in Connecticut, as did a 222 in Massachusetts. Minnesota is now <= 215.

Alabama = 210
Arizona <= 215
Arkansas <= 212
California = 220
Colorado <= 217 (also an early report of a 214 qualifying)
Connecticut <= 220
Delaware <= 220
Florida = 216
Georgia <= 217
Idaho <= 211
Illinois = 218
Indiana = 215
Iowa <= 213 and >= 210
Kansas <= 212
Kentucky <= 215
Louisiana <= 211
Maine <= 214
Maryland 221 or 222
Massachusetts <= 221
Michigan 215 or 216
Minnesota <= 214
Mississippi = 211 via Reddit (reports still welcome)
Missouri = 214
Nebraska <= 217
Nevada = 211
New Jersey <= 224
New Mexico <= 209
New York = 220
North Carolina <= 218
Ohio = 216
Oklahoma = 210
Pennsylvania = 219
South Carolina <= 213
Tennessee = 214
Texas = 219
Virginia <= 221
Washington 221 or 222
West Virginia <= 209
Wisconsin = 212

Key:

State <= 215 — A student at 215 qualified, but we don’t yet know the lowest qualifying score.
State >= 211 — A student at 210 did not qualify, so we know that the cutoff is higher.
State >=212 and <=214 — The qualifying score ranges from 212 to 214.
State = 213 — The combination of reports means that the qualifying score has been confirmed.

September 1: Pennsylvania’s cutoff is 219. New York is confirmed at 220. Michigan has been narrowed down to 215 or 216. Maryland is <= 223. Kentucky and Minnesota students have reported qualifying at 216. Iowa’s cutoff is between 210 and 213. Idaho added at <= 213.

August 31: Nevada’s cutoff is 211. Ohio’s cutoff is confirmed at 216; I’m still working on confirmation that it did not fall to 215. Students at 216 or above can now rest easy. Reports added for Connecticut and Nebraska.

The information for the states listed immediately below are based on the most recent reporting. Drops in both the confirmed and unconfirmed cutoffs have demonstrated the impact of the lower Reading & Writing scores that Compass flagged last November. We now expect most state cutoffs will fall 2 to 3 points, producing results similar to those in the classes of 2023 and 2024, when the Commended cutoff was only 207. In order to give guidance to students in states where reports are sparse or absent, Compass has updated its estimates in the table further down this page. The “Most Likely” figures in that table are estimates. We expect 45-50 states will fall within the updated projected ranges.

August 29 and 30: Some additional reports have allowed us to narrow things down in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia. We now know that New Mexico is <= 209.

August 28: Maine and Indiana have been narrowed down. Georgia updated to <= 218. That’s a big one for many students. Reports from Alabama, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina added. Alabama now confirmed at 210.  A student with a 218 did not qualify in Pennsylvania. Reports from Indiana indicate a NMSF level of between 212 and 215. Maine is no higher than 214. Fixed my mistake on Michigan (remains <=218). Missouri has now dropped to <= 215.

August 27: Oklahoma confirmed at 210. Conflicting information on Ohio; moving it back to <=218 until more reports come in. Reports added from Alabama, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I received credible — but not perfect — information that a 215 did not qualify in Ohio. I’m going to move it back to the more certain <= 218. I’ve seen sufficient posts on 218 not qualifying in Texas that I am moving it to Texas = 219. Mixed information from Virginia, but the most credible report is that a 222 did qualify. Wisconsin has now moved to <= 212, which means the cutoff will be at a record low.

August 26: California drops to 220, Ohio to 215 (now in doubt), and Mississippi to 211. Reports added from Texas, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Georgia, and Washington.
The largest state in the country is now confirmed at 220, the lowest it has been since the class of 2023. Students and parents have reported lower class of 2027 cutoffs for Ohio and Mississippi. I always appreciate additional reports from students who qualify (or miss out).

August 25: Florida confirmed at 216. Tennessee record low of 214. Reports from Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Oklahoma.
Florida’s cutoff fell to 216, which is great news for students in large states and hoping for lower cutoffs. I received a report of two Oklahoma students qualifying at 210. This doesn’t confirm the final cutoff — it could be lower — but it is evidence that scores will be dropping this year. An Arizona student qualified at 216, and a New Jersey student qualified with 224. With Florida tying its record low, Tennessee setting a record low of 214, Louisiana at a record low (211 or less) and Arizona, Arkansas, and Oklahoma dropping, we need to look at comparable down years such as the Classes of 2021, 2023, and 2024. The huge drop in top RW scores has been a question mark since we first analyzed scores in November. Was the drop consistent at top scores? The answer appears to be, “Yes.”

August 24: The first score report!
Semifinalist packets are now arriving at high schools. It can be a slow process. The time from USPS to school to student can get stretched out. Also, National Merit asks schools not to make the information publicly available until an official announcement is made (likely on September 9th). While there is no prohibition against informing students themselves, many schools prefer to wait. Compass compiles information as students report news and will update this site consistently with the latest information. The first report is from a student in Florida qualifying with a 220.

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Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
Every year, Compass tracks the National Merit process from the PSAT in October of junior year through the announcement of Semifinalists in September of senior year. One of the most important insights comes in April with the reveal of the national Commended cutoff. Compass has confirmed that this year’s Commended level is 208, down from last year’s 210. There has never been a year when all 50 states see lower cutoffs, but this year may come close. The Class of 2026 saw record Semifinalist cutoffs in 21 states; this year, Compass projects none. Our Semifinalist estimates have been updated with the latest information.

The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.

National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Because Reading and Writing carries double weight, a student with balanced section scores can trail a student with a lower total. Sophomores and juniors preparing for the October PSAT can work on that imbalance directly in a National Merit-focused PSAT class. Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of each state. Compass expects this year’s cutoffs to range from 208 to 223.

Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
The first indication of a decline was the lower number of top scorers reported by College Board when PSAT results were released in November. College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. Only 52,400 students in the Class of 2027 earned scores in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range, down 16% from the previous year. That figure is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and is similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.

Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, the Commended cutoff was bound to decline. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.

A big drop after last year’s record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why that is unlikely to happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.

On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states.

On the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Based on the results in the highest scoring states, we know that a record number of students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. For this reason, we don’t believe there will be a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.

We anticipate that the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs will decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.

State	Class of 2027 (Most Likely)	Class of 2027 (Est. Range)	Class of 2026 (Actual)	Class of 2025 (Actual)	Class of 2024 (Actual)	Avg NMSFs
Alabama	210	210 - 212	214	212	210	250
Alaska	211	209 - 214	215	214	209	35
Arizona	215	213 - 216	218	217	216	398
Arkansas	210	210 - 212	215	213	210	143
California	220	220 - 220	224	221	221	2,115
Colorado	217	216 - 219	219	218	216	286
Connecticut	221	219 - 222	223	221	221	175
Delaware	219	217 - 220	220	219	219	44
District of Columbia	223	221 - 224	225	223	223	36
Florida	216	216 - 216	219	217	216	999
Georgia	218	217 - 220	220	218	217	602
Hawaii	216	214 - 218	219	217	217	62
Idaho	213	210 - 215	215	213	211	96
Illinois	218	217 - 220	222	220	219	704
Indiana	215	214 - 217	218	217	216	313
Iowa	211	210 - 214	214	212	210	145
Kansas	214	213 - 216	216	215	214	144
Kentucky	212	210 - 214	214	213	211	201
Louisiana	211	211 - 213	216	214	214	222
Maine	214	211 - 215	217	214	213	55
Maryland	221	220 - 223	224	222	221	308
Massachusetts	222	220 - 223	225	223	222	318
Michigan	216	215 - 218	220	218	217	485
Minnesota	216	215 - 218	219	217	216	279
Mississippi	211	210 - 212	213	212	209	155
Missouri	214	213 - 216	217	215	214	289
Montana	209	208 - 212	213	209	209	47
Nebraska	211	209 - 213	214	211	210	105
Nevada	211	210 - 212	214	214	211	168
New Hampshire	215	213 - 218	219	217	215	60
New Jersey	223	221 - 224	225	223	223	451
New Mexico	209	208 - 210	210	211	207	104
New York	220	219 - 221	223	220	220	1,012
North Carolina	217	216 - 219	220	218	217	510
North Dakota	208	208 - 210	210	210	207	30
Ohio	216	215 - 216	219	217	216	538
Oklahoma	210	209 - 211	212	211	208	204
Oregon	216	215 - 218	219	216	216	188
Pennsylvania	219	217 - 220	221	219	219	596
Rhode Island	216	213 - 218	219	217	215	47
South Carolina	212	209 - 215	215	214	209	236
South Dakota	210	208 - 212	211	208	209	42
Tennessee	214	214 - 217	219	217	217	319
Texas	219	219 - 219	222	219	219	1,623
Utah	211	209 - 213	213	211	209	196
Vermont	213	211 - 216	216	215	212	28
Virginia	221	219 - 222	224	222	219	437
Washington	221	219 - 223	224	222	220	348
West Virginia	208	208 - 210	210	209	207	64
Wisconsin	212	211 - 214	215	214	213	292
Wyoming	208	208 - 211	210	209	207	24
Territories	208	208 - 208	210	208	207	39
Outside US	223	221 - 224	225	223	223	86
Commended	208	208 - 208	210	208	207

Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes.  The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.

How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.

While the Commended cutoff is the same across the entire country, Semifinalists cutoffs vary by state. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school juniors, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.

Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.

Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

• Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
• Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
• Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
• The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
• Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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