Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
A student on Reddit has the complete list for all states and is posting here: https://www.reddit.com/u/lil-catfish/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Students helping students. Always makes me happy.
Some data, based on only one state (PA) and likely off by a few as I hand counted from a .jpg image of qualifiers:
2021 – 721 semifinalists, 121 with intended major code 000 = 16.8%
2022 – 682 semifinalists, 378 with intended major code 000 = 55.4%
Subtracting the same 16.8% from the 2022 SFs (114), would leave 264 excess 000 qualifiers, or 38.7% of all qualifiers.
(again – back of the envelope “statistics”, with several assumptions, which is always dangerous)
Thanks, Rich. I agree with your envelope. I suspect that PA is somewhere in the middle in terms of states impacted by canceled PSATs.
Hi, Art,
I’m from Massachusetts and scored a 221 on the PSAT last fall. Today, my school informed me that I had not qualified as a semifinalist. On your post from earlier today, you said that these cutoffs had been confirmed and that Massachusetts was listed at 221. How do I reconcile?
Thanks,
Confused in Massachusetts…
Teddy,
The Massachusetts cutoff is 221. If you attend a boarding school, you may face a higher cutoff. If you are not at a boarding school, double check that you were listed as NM eligible on your score report. If you are listed as eligible and not at a boarding school, then I’d contact NMSC to see if they can give you any more information. Good luck!
999 is undecided major; 000 is SAT AE. My son made it in Austin, TX for the regular Oct PSAT. However, there are several schools in Austin that have a high number of 000s even though the state was “open”. Check Vandegrift- it is all 000s. As mentioned by another person, the entire list is on Reddit. It would be helpful to pull together the percentages of 000s for different states and compare them to last year. Thank you Art for all you do and all the hard work your team does!
Ornery,
I don’t believe that 000 = AE. 000 reflects that the student has not opted into Student Search Services (which would be true of AE students, but would also be true of some PSAT students). Texas had a 000 rate of 20% last year, and it looks to be at 40% this year. My mind is still open as to whether the 20% figure for the class of 2021 is primarily AE or a combination of AE and SSS opt-out.
The Reddit images are great for checking names. Not so great for analysis. PDFs are far friendlier for analysis.
How do you explain Maryland? Look at some of the schools, particularly in Montgomery County. Far more semifinalists than in prior years (20+ at WWHS, compared to maybe 8 last year). Did all 20+ students score about 1500?
Yes, they did (or thereabouts). On the SAT. The cancelation of the PSAT in most public schools in Maryland really reshaped the map. Students at some of those powerhouses you see were able to use SAT scores to apply Alternate Entry. AE also allows students to use their best SAT scores. This made for an extremely competitive landscape, and one that worked against those who had taken the PSAT. Maryland did have a much higher than usual number of Semifinalists, so not all of the gain came at the expense of PSAT takers, but a portion of it certainly did.
My kid did NOT do AE and they had a 000 because they opted out of the student search services. As a recruited athlete who has already verbally committed, they did not have any interest in hearing from other schools. Hope this helps.
Thank you for the confirmation. Congratulations to your son!
Hi!! My son is a semifinalist too and has 000. He did not do AE. His classmate have other numbers. I am very confused now. Is there a way to know what “000” means? Thank you
Katya,
The numbers represent a student’s intended concentration as listed in the personal information provided during registration. My understanding is that information is only shared with NMSC if a student has opted to participate in Student Search Service. Since AE students haven’t taken the PSAT, they have no code (“000”). Other students — such as your son — may have the 000 because they did not opt to share their information.
If you haven’t seen the CA pdf yet, there’s a copy here: https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/ef/2b/f92135e24e7d963558fda24244e0/22-ca-semifinalists-natlmeritprogram.pdf
(I couldn’t figure out how to DM you so I responded on this thread)
Thanks, T.B.!
Since there’s been talk about 000’s lately… my former high school, which has a decent number of semifinalists every year, has had every semifinalist listed as “000” for the last four years (and I know they didn’t cancel the PSAT last year). However, every semifinalist in the classes of 2015, 2016, and 2017 had a nonzero number. At a school that has 5-10 semifinalists per year, this would be unlikely to happen by random chance. Do you know what’s up?
Still, looking at those lists for past years, there are quite a few schools that have all 000’s for years prior to 2022. I don’t think it can be ascribed to alternate entry.
I’m not certain, George. My theory is that some schools have a registration process that bypasses the Student Search Service.
When does the “Letter of commendation” go out?
Rhonda,
Letters of commendation are mailed to schools after the NMSF press release date, which was 9/15. So they should start arriving at schools next week.
Art,
Thanks for all the useful information. It has been a huge help. We are pretty excited as my daughter qualified based on her PSAT score. Couple of questions:
1.). Is there a place to see or figure out what Alternate entry scores meet the cutoff by state? For example would a 1500 qualify in CA versus a 1530?
2.). Does the 895,072 entrants number for 2022 include Alternative entry?
3.). Is it possible there are students that would have qualified based on their SAT scores that will not be recognized because they did not complete an application for alternate entry. At my daughter’s public school in CA not only did they did not offer the test they also did not offer any information about alternate testing locations or alternative entry. When we asked the counselor about taking the the PSAT he was clueless about alternate test locations and did not mention anything about alternative entry. I was able to find another school in our area that offered the January PSAT. I am just wondering if there is sort of mechanism in place for students to be automatically notified if their score were high enough. If not this would seem to provide an advantage to students at more academically oriented school where this type of information is emphasized.
Sorry in advance if you have already answered these questions.
Sam B
1) It’s a little more complicated than the total score. What you need to look for are the section scores that go from 10-40 in Reading, Writing & Language, and Math. For example, a student with a 1500 might have a 38 / 37 / 37.5, which gives a 750 / 750. To calculate the SI, you sum the section scores and multiply by 2. (38 + 37 + 37.5) * 2 = 225. Ah, but it’s not that easy in all cases. Because the PSAT maxes out at 38 on each section, NMSC caps the SAT scores at 38. Let’s say that 1500 scorer had 39 / 39 / 36 or 780 / 720. The calculation is (38 + 38 + 36) = 224.
2) My reading of it is that number is only for PSAT entrants (NMSC considers any eligible junior PSAT taker as an entrant) It’s possible that this number includes AE students. Because AE students are a relatively small, elite bunch, they wouldn’t change the total all that much.
3) If your daughter ended up taking the January PSAT, then she would have been entered through the normal National Merit pathway. Her SI should be on her PSAT score report. For students not taking the PSAT, there is no automatic entry. Students needed to apply in April and then submit SAT scores. You are correct that students at schools where information about AE was widely shared had an advantage.
Do we know yet what the essay question for semi-finalists?
“To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided on the application.” NMSC estimates that the maximum allowable length is about 3,500 characters.
Help! My son received a 215 but was told by his HS counselor that he is not a commended scholar. Is this true??
Gina,
You should check your son’s PSAT report to see that he was flagged as National Merit eligible. The 215 was clearly high enough, so there may be a misunderstanding. I would recommend contacting NMSC for more information. Good luck!
Think it is pretty weird to have a cutoff by STATE for something called a NATIONAL Merit Scholarship
Douglas,
It’s a common complaint, but NMSC has been handling things this way for 60+ years, so they are unlikely to change. The state cutoffs ensure national representation, so I don’t think the naming is completely unfair. A national cutoff would lead to a concentration of Semifinalists that could ultimately damage or destroy the program, as NMSC depends on a national array of schools and corporate sponsors.
Hello, are you sure that the lowest for DE is 218. Im kind of scared I might now make it. Just took the PSAT today. Know I got 760 on math byut other sections messed me up.
Harris,
That’s an estimate based on historical performance and how much states typically change year-to-year. I expect 95% of cutoffs to fall within these ranges. Obviously we don’t yet have any score data. Good luck!
Hello,
Could it be fair to speculate that the 2023 indexes may remain on the lower side following 1.5 year of online school during which many students fell behind grade level? We are in CA and hoping for index to stay at 221/222 max. Thank you Art.
Catherine,
I think that’s fair speculation. Other testing has shown that the disruption has impacted outcomes. My guess would be that the impact is lower among high-achieving students, but I don’t have evidence. And while PSAT numbers will recover, I doubt that they will fully recover this year.
Thank you for your thoughts Art. I certainly don’t expect SI for CA to be any lower than 221, just hoping it won’t jump to 223.
Hi Art,
I am trying to understand how a state’s PSAT NMSQT cutoff score is affected by the grade levels of the students taking it in any given year.
Some high schools here administer the PSAT to all 9th, 10th, and 11th graders. Other high schools here only give the PSAT in 10th grade. If an 11th grader wants to take the PSAT, they can – but they need to express interest, get signed up, etc.
10th graders do qualify for National Recognition programs, including African American or Black, Hispanic American or Latinx, Indigenous, or rural area / small town – but it is my understanding that, regardless of how high their score is, only 11th graders qualify for National Merit Semifinalist.
So are 11th graders helped or hindered when 10th and 9th graders also take the PSAT NMSQT in large numbers within their state?
Anxiously waiting for December 6th!
Thank you!
Cavvy,
Only juniors are eligible to participate in National Merit (with the very small exception of sophomores graduating early), so the scores of 9th and 10th graders have no impact on cutoffs. The National Recognition programs are run by College Board rather than National Merit Scholarship Corporation, so their rules also have no impact on NMSF qualification.
Hi Mr.Sawyer,
I scored a 212 in this year’s, October 2021 PSAT. I’m in the state of Arkansas. Do you think this will be enough for 2023 NMSF?
Taksh,
It’s going to be close enough that you’ll need to wait until September. My current “most likely” has Arkansas at 213, but we’re coming off classes where it was 212 and 211, so a 212 is definitely a possibility.
Hi, Mr. Sawyer,
What are the chances of receiving commendation for a score of 208 on the PSAT for a student in the class of 2023? The most likely score here is 211 but upon looking at multiple sites, I’ve seen lower numbers like 209 and 208.
Thanks for your time.
A,
I just published my data on this year’s scores. They point to a Commended of around 208.
With PSAT data out for the Oct 2021 administration, do we have an idea where the commended line will be for the class of 2023?
TOM,
I just published a major update that incorporated what I know about this year’s scores. I estimated a Commended cutoff of 208, with a possible range of 207-209.
221 in VA for class 2023, what are the odds thats good enough?
Emanuel,
Better than even. In “down” years nationally, Virginia has come in at 221, and I think we’re seeing a down year.
Hi,
Massachusetts 2020 cutoff was 222 and not 223. Just wanted to point out.
Thanks.
Matt,
If you can point me to the evidence, I’d be happy to update the table. The 223 is the cutoff for the class of 2020 according to my records.
Hi Art,
Do you know when you’ll have actual scores for the class of 2023? My son has an index score of 220 (Texas) and it looks like he’s not going to make it based on the most likely prediction of 221. Hoping for the best!
Cat,
I’ll be publishing tonight an updated post incorporating what we’ve learned about the October test scores. The information is useful but — as with any release of Dec scores — does not pin down state cutoffs. For that, we need to wait until information starts leaking in late August and early September. I will given an advance preview and say that I have updated my most likely to a 220 in Texas. Your son has a good chance.
Hi Art,
My child also has an index score of 220 (California) which seems like it’ll miss based on your prediction. Do you have any updates for the most likely prediction in California?
Angel,
Unfortunately, California has locked in on the 221 – 223 range in the last decade. I have a most likely of 222, but neither a 221 nor a 223 would surprise me.
Thank you, Art!!! Phewwww. All of us moms have been referencing the range you forecasted.
Second question – he took the SAT in August and got a 1570 (one and done). He said the PSAT was actually harder for him. Could the SAT score taken in August serve as a confirming score if he does become a national merit semi-finalist? I hope a SAT score that preceded the PSAT will be okay.
Cat,
The confirming score can be from August of sophomore year to December of senior year. Your son is all set! Yes, the scores from this year’s PSAT are coming in a bit low.
My son also got a 1570 on his SAT in Nov and we just saw his PSAT at 1480 (740 in each area) and we live in CA. I believe that is an SI 222? This is tight. Do you think he has a good chance?
JW,
A 222 is my prediction for California. I just posted a major update on why things are looking low — at least nationally. Unfortunately, I can’t rule out a 223 cutoff, so it’s going to be a winter/spring/summer of waiting until September.
Any change for Colorado?
Laurie,
I’ve estimated a 219 for Colorado, but I would not fight someone who thought it might come in at 217 or 218. Not that I’m planning to fight anyone over PSAT scores! Good luck.
Is a 225 sure to make it for Georgia or are there other factors?
Georgia,
Congratulations! A 225 will absolutely qualify for Semifinalist in every state in the country. Just be sure to check that NMSC has your class year and eligibility correct (it should be noted on your report). For the Finalist stage, you’ll need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score. See our NM FAQ for details, but you should have no problem reaching the necessary SAT Selection Index (likely in the 207-210 range).
Thank you Art!
Hi,
Would a 222 SI qualify in Ohio? I feel like I did well enough for NMSF but then again nothing is certain this year.
RL,
There is no chance that Ohio’s cutoff will jump to 223 this year. Congratulations.
That’s very reassuring to hear, thank you for the insight!
Do you think a 218 score index for Michigan will make the cutoff?
Chris,
That’s where I’ve pegged my latest “most likely” estimate, so I feel like it has a better than even shot at qualifying.
Hi Art,
My daughter took the PSAT in Florida.
The classroom where she tested was a bit chaotic. A young man sitting near her used his smartwatch at least once during the test, maybe twice. He was finally asked to leave the room. The Testing Monitor was hollering at him in between. It was loud and hard to concentrate.
My daughter’s Selection Index score was a 217 – one point off your projection of 218 for this year. She thinks she should take the SAT in March to see if she can get a higher score and qualify for National Merit. But since she already took the PSAT, would that even be a possibility? Would they consider an SAT score? Thank you!
Sami,
I’m sorry to hear of your daughter’s experience taking the exam. The good news is that I now think that a cutoff of 217 is most likely in Florida. That’s no guarantee, of course, but I think your daughter has an excellent shot. Once a PSAT score becomes official, a student cannot switch to Alternate Entry. The SAT score would only be applicable at the Finalist stage, where students need a “confirming score” to qualify.
Art,
As another poster said, my daughter also mentioned that this PSAT, especially the Reading section, seemed harder than the SAT! She took the SAT and scored in the high 1400’s, so she should be good for the confirming score.
If Florida’s Selection Index score does indeed remain at 217, she is going to be over the moon. We will be watching for the update you are posting later tonight! Thank you!
Update posted. It’s going to be close, but given even odds, I’d certainly bet on your daughter’s 217. Unfortunately, it’s a long wait until September. Yes, high 1400s will make for a confirming score.
Hey Art,
Does your actual cutoff prediction for Alabama remain 214?
Yes, although Alabama is a good example of why we need to think in terms of ranges. In the 3 class years I cite as the best analogues, Alabama’s cutoff has been at 215, 212, and 212.
Hi Art,
Do you think a 222 will be semifinalist in California? I know it
yyyubi,
Yes, I do. I can’t discount the possibility of a 223 cutoff, but it looks to be a “down” year for most states.