Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi,
I am from Nevada and qualified with a 225 index!! So excited!:)
Congratulations, Mark! Thanks for sharing the excitement.
I’m from SC and I feel like no one from my state makes a big deal out of this, but I really want to know! My school got a new principal this year and my counselor told me that he absolutely will not allow any names to go out until the 11th, so I guess all I do now is wait. I have a 219, which should be fine, but it is always nice to know things for certain rather than just speculating.
H,
It’s frustrating, since I’m sure your principal is just trying to follow the rules. NMSC merely asks schools not to publicly release the information prior to 9/11. It has never taken exception to principals or counselors privately communicating the information to students. As you say, you are in great shape at 219.
Apparently, my counselor was able to convince the new principal that it was okay to tell those who qualified before the 11th as long as we did not tell anyone (besides family). I have a 219 and qualified in SC.
Congratulations, H! Since you’ve remained anonymous, seems like you’ve adhered to the conditions. Thank you for the info.
Hi Art,
With CA and several other states going down a point, do you feel comfortable speculating on states like IL, TX and NY that have always been a point or two behind CA? Do you think this decreases those states chances of going up a point?
Thanks for everything.
Natalie,
Let me preface this by reminding people that it is just speculation. I’ll pass along any real information.
It’s certainly not bad news for students in IL/NY/TX. I like what we are seeing so far with CA and VA and some of the other states. My worst-case as a prognosticator is completely missing some big leap upward. It looks like I may have dodged that for another year. Each state is unique, though. Until last year, CA had always fallen a point or two behind New Jersey. Tomorrow is going to be a big day.
Can someone else confirm CA is a 222? My son has a 222 and we don’t want to get our hope up yet.
Art,
I’m from Colorado and my son is sitting on a 220. You wrote earlier you had confirmation that Colorado’s cutoff will be no higher than a 220. Did you get that confirmation from one or several parents? And how reliable is this information? 50%? 90? I don’t want to get my hopes up too high!!
Thank you!!
Hopeful,
Colorado happens to be the state where I feel the most confident, as the information comes directly from a school counselor. “Colorado HS counselor here–all of our students with an SI of 220 are semifinalists. We don’t have anyone with a 218-219 SI, so not sure if that score will be considered.” And, yes, name, email, and IP all check out. No guarantees, but it looks like you are set.
You’ve made my day!! Thank you Art for your prompt reply!!
Any news on CT?
Still waiting. Please let us know if you hear anything from your student’s school! Thanks.
Mom in CT,
My son is sitting on a 220. 760 in Math and 720 in EBRW (English). Had the scored been reversed, I would be confident. I think he falls short.
We’re in Texas and were notified by our school that they got letter today – my child qualified for national semi-finalist with 221 index.
Congratulations! Your student’s notification has made some other Texans happy, too.
THANK YOU SO MUCH! I LITERALLY SPENT THE ENTIRE DAY JUST REFRESHING THIS PAGE TO SEE IF TEXAS HAD UPDATED BECAUSE I SCORED A 221 AND I DIDN’T WANT TO MISS THE CUTOFF BY 1 POINT. YOU ARE LITERALLY AN ANGEL
Oh no my daughter got a 220 and she has miserable since she got her score that she most likely missed it by 1. I am hoping 221 isn’t Texas final number. I will have one crushed child.
My son has a 220 in AZ – so feeling hopeful but no official news from his school yet. I have been looking for information on when the application (including essays!) is due… anyone who has received an official letter, can you let me know? If this info is only available from last year, that would be helpful too just to have an idea… thanks!
Jen,
Hopefully a class of 2020 Semifinalist can get back to you with the latest information. Last year’s deadline was October 10th, and it usually falls in that same week from year-to-year. The deadline is for the school to submit the Finalist application, so it’s not just a student deadline.
In recent years, the essay prompt has gone unchanged. “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.” The space allows for about 600-650 words. The rest of the Finalist application is basic background information and would take a prepared student about 30 minutes.
October 9 is the date for the schools to upload to NMSC (that is, if it’s the same as it is for ‘home schools’)
Thank you, Anonymous, it makes sense that it moved up a day.
How certain are you that the cutoff for CA will be 222?
Steve,
It comes from a student report. I have no reason not to believe it, but it would be nice to have a backup report given the importance of CA.
*waits anxiously for someone to post about a 219 in Arizona*
When the Oct 24th PSAT drops you 6 index points from your previous year and all you can do is hope😭
Good luck, Catherine! You deserve it after the Oct 24 test.
Hi Art,
I have a student at 216 in Maine; how sure are you that 216 qualifies? How come NMSC doesn’t just publish this info, why all the craziness of school only notification? Thanks so much for this service you provide!
The parent seemed quite certain in her report, but that’s all that I know. NMSC has been using the same model for about 60 years. It takes “if it ain’t broke…” to an absurd extreme. I guess we should be grateful that it finally allowed for ACT confirming scores. Change comes slowly.
Please, someone give news about pennsylvania!
216 is good for Nebraska!
Yay, another state heard from! Congratulations, Steph.
Art,
Thank you so much for providing this information for us! We really appreciate it.
Steph
John would like news from PA!
Still waiting to hear in WV. My son has a 219 so I feel fairly confident he will make it.
asloan12,
If 219 doesn’t qualify in WV, I’ll pack up this webpage and never post again. Congratulations!
Thank you! I just hope we hear soon.
Any news about MO?
Nothing, I’ll pass along your plea.
Please, anyone! Sitting on a 219 in Ohio and waiting to hear!
My daughter scored a 216 in Louisiana. We haven’t heard any news yet. Does this mean she got the score for national merit??? Waiting on pins and needles!
Based on the reports we have — which are most certainly not legally binding — it means she has qualified as a Semifinalist.
Confirming an Alabama 216 qualifies as a semi-finalist (I’ve seen the letter). Thanks Art for this forum!
Thanks, BD. Congratulations to your student!
Any news about Iowa?
I haven’t seen anything yet, Bob.
Does anyone have the cutoff from Michigan
Hoping to hear soon,
Got word this morning that my son qualified in OK with 216.
More happy news! Thanks, Jason, I’ll pass along the information.
DD qualified in TN with a 220! We found out this morning.
Congratulations, Kristen! I’ve updated the post.
Any updates from Missouri?
Sorry, no.
Florida is 219 for sure.
Sara,
I’ll ask before all of the students do: How are you so sure? Thank you.
Sure would love some more news from Georgia!! Have a son with a 221.
Me, as well! [The information part, not the son part.]
DD has a 221 in Georgia. Please come through for us! The waiting is so hard! Any GA people with info?
Given that CA went down (at least) one point – does that make it perhaps a little more likely that MD will go down similarly?
I think it is encouraging, but I don’t want to put too much emphasis on it yet.
Thank you! Would really like to hear some MD news, as son has a 222 . . .
Hi Art, thanks for this webpage. I’m wondering about any news from Oregon. We’re hoping for a cutoff that is less than or equal to 220. Does the move down of at least one point versus last year’s cutoff in CA increase the likelihood of the same in OR?
I haven’t heard from Oregon yet, Matt. We are definitely seeing that some states are moving down. Fingers crossed for Oregon.
Chiming in from Mississippi- my daughter qualified with 224 and reports that classmates with 214 also made it.
DCHS?