Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello! I just received a 215 selection index for Tennessee. Do you know anything about how TN fluctuates and the likelihood of it staying at 215? Thank you!
Cole,
Tennessee has stayed at 215 the last two years, but it hadn’t been that low since the class of 2013. Even in what I consider one of the “low years,” TN had a 218 cutoff. I still like 215 as the “most likely” result.
My son has a 213 in Missouri. It is a long wait until September.
Pam,
I wish I could make it shorter. Let’s hope that Missouri stays right where it is.
Hi Art, Many thanks for the information. My son got an index of 217 in Colorado. Could you comment on Colorado’s data? What are the chances that my son can be a semi finalist? Can you explain how you conclude that this is a “low year”? Much appreciated.
Jen,
The fact that we are under 45,000 students scoring 1400-1520 — only 3% of all test takers — aligns with what we have seen historically in years where NMSF cutoffs are considerably lower than in “high years,” where over 60,000 students scored 1400-1520. That information doesn’t tell us what is happening in every state, but it does make me conclude that few states will see large increases in cutoffs this year. Colorado is an example of where the cutoff has been 217 and 218 in low years and 220 and 221 in high years. Because (a) I may be wrong and (b) states can move independently, I’d put a 218 in the 50-75% range.
Thank you for the information! My son received a 220 in California, any thoughts on that, thanks!
Alex,
I think there is a 50/50 chance between 220 and 221 this year. If we assume that CA continues to see lower testing numbers, that probably tips in favor of 220.
Is there any chance that CA will drop to 219? I scored solid 1460/220 twice on practice tests but ended up with a 1450/219. I’m pretty sure it’s unlikely to drop, but my school has apparently had lower PSATs than in previous years, so I’m a little hopeful but doubt it will actually happen.
Leela,
California students are not testing with the same frequency as in the past, so I think a further drop is possible. I’d say 25% chance, but that’s just a modestly informed guess.
My son got a 222 in NJ. Is there any possibility of NJ going back 1 point from last year’s cutoff of 223?
Thank you for your great work.
Samu,
Yes, NJ can be very dependent on test scaling. It doesn’t take many wrong answers at all to fall below 223, depending on the form. Over the last decade, NJ has bounced around between 222 and 223.
Great article. One question – why is the cutoff for “students studying abroad” set to the highest cutoff of all the states. The cutoff of each selection group should be based on the performance of that group as is the case for each of the states. My child is in this bucket and has a score of 216 and it seems quite unfair that her group is set to a different standard than the states. It would be great of you could explain the reasoning behind this.
Mike,
If National Merit allowed the Abroad unit to float independently, the cutoff might even be higher. Think of the U.S. Students Abroad as a very small state with a very elite profile.
How are we assuming that the abroad group gets higher scores? These students are studying curriculums which are quite different from the schools in USA. And hence their range of scores are likely to be significantly different (both highs, lows and medians) from the USA states group. They should therefore be in their own group dont you think? Not sure why this will be a very elite profile.
Mike,
I shouldn’t have made that assumption. Unfortunately, NMSC has been handling the U.S. Students Abroad in the same way for decades.
Robert, great site. So helpful! My child in MA scored a 222 for the 10/2022 test. Based on your calculations, it would seem that there is something close to a 95 pct probability that this is enough for a semifinalist, I.e. very, very unlikely that MA jumps 3 points yoy to 223 for its cutoff. . Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.
D
David,
I might put it at more like 90%, but we’re guessing at that stage. The cutoff has been 223 in 2 of the last 5 years, but those were pre-pandemic cutoffs and in years where we had a LOT more high scorers. You’re right that a 3-point jump in a high-scoring state is rare.
Many thanks!
Thoughts on Mississippi? Daughter has a 212, It seems as though Mississippi has had small fluctuations over the last few years. Reviewing your information, I don’t see any increase of over two points for any given years–fingers crossed.
Eree,
Mississippi has moved around more than most states because of its size. What was unusual in the class of 2022, for example, was that it was a full 6 points above the Commended level. You are correct, though, that MS has not jumped up more than 2 points in the 15 years for which we have data. The 210 of last year is the lowest in a dozen years. I think 212 falls in the 50-75% range.
Hello Art,
My name is Matthew and i’m from michigan. I got 218 selection index. What are my chances?
Matthew,
I like your chances. Michigan has seen 219 cutoffs, but those were in years where we saw large numbers of high scorers nationwide.
I got a 219 in TX. I’m worried i may not make the cutoff. what are my chances?
Arun,
About even or just above. In the 4 years that I consider low years, Texas has had 2 cutoffs of 219 and 2 of 220. This year looks similar to last, which would be a good sign.
I know this probably won’t cut it for commended, but my class of 24 daughter was in the 97th percentile overall this year with a 204. Scores might be low this year.
KJ,
The percentiles from College Board are based on the classes of 2021, 2022, and 2023, so they don’t, unfortunately, tell us about how students did this year. I appreciate the information!
Oh no – my son received a 219 in CT, however there’s an * by his score that said he left some of the entry requirement info blank on his score sheet? Is he out of luck, or is that something that can be corrected in order to be eligible?
There is not an immediate rush, but you may want to contact NMSC or check with his college counselor. Many times the problem is that College Board doesn’t have the class year.
Hello, I recently got a 214 in Tennessee, do you think this will be good enough for semifinalist. I know that it is pretty unlikely, but I just want some peace of mind.
Shawn,
It depends on what you consider peace of mind. A 1-point drop is hardly out of the question. You will at least make Commended.
Thank you so much for this information–it’s very helpful! (My son just learned he got a 217, and we are in Arkansas.)
Brian,
Thank you. Congratulations to your son! He will be a Semifinalist.
Hello Art,
Thanks for such a comprehensive analysis.
My kid got 223 in NJ. My question is why there is a long wait until next September , 2023 to reveal NMSF while all scores were known in December, 2022 ?
Robert,
I often ask the same question. First, not all of the scores are known. Scores continue to dribble in as College Board makes corrections or students fix incorrect class years. Also, students who missed the PSAT can enter the competition via Alternate Entry. The biggest factor, though, is logistical. NMSC needs to verify everything with high schools. It’s tough for them to do that right away because NMSC is busy figuring out Finalists and then making matches with colleges and scholarships. They don’t contact high schools until around April. By the time it has the information it needs, it is summer, and NMSC waits until school is back in session. It’s an antiquated system that hasn’t changed in 60 years.
I think there is very little chance we will see a 224 from NJ. We have still never seen a truly organic 224. Maryland’s in the class of 2022 was the result of the pandemic and the influx of Alternate Entrants.
I got a 206 index in Mississippi, any chance of making it?
Harry,
A 206 is possible for Commended, but Mississippi’s Semifinalist cutoff will be higher than that.
Thank you Art for a great article. What are your thoughts on the chances Texas goes above 221? My child received a 221, and like many others, it will be a long wait until September!
Daniel,
I don’t know if there is a zero chance, but it’s VERY near zero. Texas has never had a 222, and I don’t see a reason why it would start this year.
What is the state or selection unit for an online student who resides in a different state than the online school’s corporate offices? Also, what has been the highest Selection Index needed to qualify for Semifinalist under the current PSAT? What do you think will be the highest Selection Index this year?
Parent,
I haven’t dealt with that situation before. It may be the physical location where the student took the test, but I am unsure. You might want to contact NMSC for guidance. The highest Selection Index is likely to be 222 or 223 this year.
Great idea! NMSC says that virtual students are treated as homeschool students. Thank you for your help!
Thank you!
My son scored a 220 in Texas. Do you think there is a high chance to qualify as a semifinalist? He already took the SAT last summer and received a 1510. Will this be high enough for further National Merit considerations or should he take the SAT again?
Jack,
I think there is a good chance that he will qualify in Texas. There is only an outside chance of a 221. His 1510 is more than enough to serve as a “confirming” score for Finalist consideration. It’s not a situation where a higher score help him.
My son just moved from TX to MD this August and took the PSAT in MD. Unfortunately, he got 220 which might be in the gap between TX and MD. He is very frustrated with this result. Is there anything we can do and what is his chance of NMSC in a “low year”?
Ray,
Since he took the test in MD, his success is tied to Maryland’s cutoff. There is at least a small chance that Maryland could drop 2 points. It’s a highly competitive state, I’m afraid. There is nothing more to be done at this point beyond wait.
Hi,
My son has an index of 216 in Nebraska. What are the chances he will receive semifinalist standing?
Pamela
Pamela,
Congratulations! Your son will be a Semifinalist.
Thanks for this information. Do you think MN will be a low year?
Marie,
I have only seen College Board data at the national level. Individual states do not always follow that trend. All we can say is more will be low than high.
Thank you so much for this article! It helped explain so much! My son got a 221 in Georgia, so here’s to hoping we don’t have an unusually high spike for our state!
Kim,
Fingers crossed. A 221 would be a record high for Georgia, and I just don’t see that happening. Your son is in great shape.
Art,
My son has taken both the PSAT and SAT – this year (HS’24). Seemingly his qualifying score is higher from his SAT (226) than his PSAT (220)? Question: Can he substitute his PSAT score with his SAT score for purposes of NMSSF consideration?
Thanks
Brian,
Students who have taken the PSAT can not use the SAT for consideration.
Can you please help me interpret my daughter’s NMSQT score of 223 in Connecticut
Thank you for all the great information on this site
Hareesh,
With a 223 Selection Index, your daughter will qualify as a Semifinalist in CT. This will allow her to continue on in the competition for spots as Finalist and Scholar.