Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Thanks for the great information! My daughter is in TX and got 221. Will she be able to qualify as a semifinalist?
Yang,
Almost certainly. I don’t see how Texas would go above 221 this year.
Great info. My son received a 218 in Texas. What do you think the chances are for it to drop to the 218?
Thanks.
Shannon,
Texas has been a success story over the last decade, and Texas’s scores have settled higher. I don’t think, however, that a 1-point drop is entirely out of the question. There is no reason not to maintain hope.
Hi! What is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 220 in Texas? Also, do your estimates tend to fluctuate throughout the year, and can’t the difficulty of the test be compensated by better curves instead of lower qualifying indexes? Thanks!
Manisha,
I think a 220 will likely qualify. I doubt we will see a 221 in Texas. Usually the next adjustment comes when the Commended cutoff leaks in April. Unfortunately, there aren’t many times when College Board or NMSC release details during the year.
Yes, the curves are designed to account for differences in difficulty. And National Merit does not care what the curves are — just how many students got a particular score. What can happen, though, with an unusually easy test is that there are large gaps between scores. For example, 1 wrong on Math drops a student to a 730. You can have forms where 2 wrong take a student out of the running for a high cutoff state such as NJ. I’m not saying that happened this year — I think that learning losses are more likely as an explanation — but this is what happened with the class of 2021 and has happened with some of the alternate forms in other years.
Hi, my son got a 218 for VA state.. what are the chances of him qualifying as a semifinalist ?
Lakshimi,
Virginia is regularly one of the most competitive states in the country. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Semifinalist cutoff will move to 218.
Do you think it is possible for a 219 to qualify in Virginia? I know it would be a two point drop, but 219 is listed at the bottom end of the range in the table.
Kevin,
Yes, it’s possible. Unfortunately, I think 220 or 221 are far more likely.
Thanks for all the great input. How do you think 215 in KS will fare? Seems like it will be close.
You’re right. It has been good enough in recent years, but Kansas has seen a wide range of cutoffs.
Thanks for all the great information, Art! Any thoughts on a 218 in TX qualifying as a semifinalist for 2024?
Michael,
You’ll want to think positive thoughts. It’s possible, but it has been 10 years since Texas was at 218. The state has become more competitive in the last decade.
My son received a 213 in Arkansas. Would appreciate your feedback!
Casandra,
While Arkansas has seen cutoffs of 214 and 215, that’s only happened when scores nationwide were high. The data points to a “low year” nationally, so I think a 213 is likely to qualify.
My son got an index score of 209 in Arkansas. Do you you what his chances are to qualify as a semifinalist in Arkansas?
Marnie,
If I’m honest, the chances are low. But they are not zero. As a relatively small state, Arkansas does see wider than usual fluctuations.
Hello,
How does a 213 in Florida look? Any chance?
Kim,
A 213 in Florida will be a Commended Student this year.
Hello,
My son has a SSI of 218 with an SAT of 1510. He’s SO close. 🙁 What do you think his chances of NMSF are?
Alisha,
You didn’t mention the state.
Sorry about that! TX 🙂 Thank you Mr. Sawyer
Alisha,
It’s been a number of years since Texas has had a 218 cutoff, but this does seem like a weak year. Unfortunately, your son’s 1510 does not come into play at this stage. Good luck!
Hi Art!
Thank you for the article it has been very informative. My son got a 215 in Florida, what do you think are his chances to make the semifinals?
Thank you!
Rod,
I think the most likely is a 216. I have a respected colleague in Florida who believes it is 215. It’s probably a toss-up.
I got a 219 in Texas. Chances of making it?
Kush,
I think it’s a bit over 50%. It’s likely to come down to a 219 or 220 and 219 proved itself last year.
Fabulous article well researched! My son got 215 in Ohio, what are the chances they lower from 216 last year? Sounds like your theorizing, maybe given test strength this year? Much Appreciated!
Al,
Yes, everything is based on the national numbers we are seeing. State numbers can really fluctuate. I think we are going to see fairly low numbers across the board. Two of the last four times we have seen low numbers nationally, 215 has been enough in Ohio. So there is definitely a chance.
How about a 216 in Ohio with 1450 Total?
AP,
I think it’s somewhere in the 50-75% range. There is always a chance that we could see OH tick up.
Hi Art, My son got 219 in TX. Will he qualify as a semifinalist for 2024? and when will be notified ?
Thanks!
Smita,
Notifications don’t go out until late August 2023, and even then they go to the schools rather than the students.
I think there is a bit over 50% chance of a 219 qualifying in Texas.
220 from MA , In your opinion how probable is it that the cutoff is a point lower than the prediction. 🙁
Ini,
The only reason that I went with 221 this year rather than 220 is that MA has more of a history at 221 and 222. But the resemblance of this year’s numbers to last’s is strong. It’s close to 50/50.
Art!
This is so helpful. What do you think are the chances for qualifying with a 219 in Michigan?
Maria,
Maybe not a sure thing, but awfully close. Michigan has never gone above 219.
When clicking through my daughter’s score report (NMSQ 204 and 97th percentile overall), it says “you meet the entry requirements for the 2024 National Merit Scholarship Program and your Selection Index Score will be considered among 1.5 million program entrants.” Does this mean she will get commended scholar? Seems like a low NMSQ for that, but it’s interesting that the it says qualifies for entry. Any insight into this? Is the 97th percentile normally commended?
KJ,
The percentile is not actually based on this year’s test takers. Instead, it is a “Nationally-Representative Sample.” This is College Board-speak for “a number we hypothesize if EVERYONE took the test.” Not everyone takes the test.
Understood. I’m just intrigued by the page where it says “you meet the entry requirements for the 2024 National Merit Scholarship Program.” Her SSI last year was lower and noted with an asterix that it didn’t meet the requirements. Guess we’ll wait and see!
KJ,
Ah! That just means she is a junior in the U.S. Last year she was a sophomore and ineligible. Technically 1.5 million students are entrants.
Thanks for all the great information, Art! Any thoughts on a 212 in KY qualifying as a semifinalist for 2024?
Garth,
I think that there is a good chance (50-75%?) that we’ll see a three-peat for 212 in Kentucky after it worked for the classes of 2022 and 2023.
What about a 216 in KY?
Nervous,
The only years where we’ve seen a higher KY cutoffs are where there have been a high number of top scorers. We seem to be having a low yield this year, so that indicates low cutoffs. We can’t say that you’re completely safe, but I like your odds.
Do you think a 216 in Florida is enough for merit semifinalist
Shyaam,
I think we are most likely to see either a 216 or 215 as the cutoff. We can’t quite rule out a higher number.
How high do you think It could go? Do you think 219 will qualify? I think Florida has gone to 220 before. Thank you.
I don’t believe Florida has ever gone above 219. I don’t think it will get even close to that this year.
Does 222 in NJ stand a chance?
Yes, New Jersey has bounced between 222 and 223 on a regular basis.
I got a 220 NMSC index with 1470 actual score in texas. What are the chances I am a semifinalist?
S,
Quite good. I think we’ll see a 219 or 220 in Texas. The state has seen a 221 only when cutoffs have been high nationwide.
I got a 220 Index score in CALIFORNIA. Do you think I have a shot at making the semi’s? Thank you.
Dan,
You do have a shot. Last year’s 220 cutoff came was a bit of a surprise at the time, but I think, in general, California has seen a dip in PSAT testing. 220 may be the new normal.
My son received a 211 . Florida. Chances of commended ?
Nick,
Yes, your son will be a Commended Student.
Do you have any idea what the curves look like? My daughter got a 218 in Illinois, and it says there is an omitted answer that she’s sure she answered, so it might be worth trying to ask for a hand score if that could get her to a 35.5 from a 35. But the one question might not budge the score, so not sure it’s worth it.
Lorna,
I haven’t seen the scales posted yet, but 1 question would almost always raise a score at that part of the scale. What I’m not sure about is whether College Board even allows for hand scoring. Please let me know what you find out.
My kid got a 219 in IL. Will that be a semifinalist score?
CN,
I think there is a good chance. A 219 has been enough when we have had years with a low number of 1400-1520 scores (like this year). In contrast, the cutoff was as high as 221 when there were more than 60,000 such scores nationwide.