**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all your comments, analysis and predictions. Really helpful.
My daughter has 220 in Texas. As per your estimated cut off after the 2nd round, Texas index is at 220. Just wanted to take your opinion on chances for Texas to go to 221 (2 point increase), considering it is a big state.
Thanks again for your time and advice.
Sayan,
The fact that Texas is a large state and has a high cutoff both point toward stability. We have seen Texas hit 221 when the national numbers have been very high. I don’t think that they will be that high this year, but I certainly can’t rule it out. 10-20% chance of it moving to 221?
Hi there Art,
What a great article. Thank you for making it available for all. May I be optimistic with 218 meeting the semifinalist cutoff in Florida? If I understand your report correctly, it shows 217 as most likely. Also, when is the earliest that the Semifinalist figures can be confirmed?
Sady,
Based on talks with a colleague in Florida, I actually moved my Most Likely to 216. I think you are in excellent shape. There are those pesky 219’s from the classes of 2018-2020, but those years saw a much higher number of 1400-1520 scores nationally.
Letters are mailed to schools in late August (I know, it’s a long way away), and numbers start leaking out around Labor Day. NMSC makes it official in mid-September. The next bit of data we will receive is when the Commended cutoff leaks out — usually in April. If that stays below 210, it becomes more likely that 218 will suffice.
Hello Art,
I’ve received a 208 in California. I’m aware the scholarship is out of my reach, but what are my chances of being commended, considering the commendation cutoff for the last 3 years has been 207?
Julian,
The number of top scorers (1400-1520) seems to have gone up this year, so I think the Commended cutoff will as well. My modeling projects the cutoff as 209, but I think there is a 25-30% chance that it comes in at 208. Good luck!
I got a 218 in Michigan – looks like a hair above your projection. Do you think I should be cautiously optimistic on making the SemiFinals
Joel,
I’m a big believer in cautious optimism, and your 218 fits the bill. As I’ve mentioned to other students, it’s those 2018-2020 class years that always make me nervous. We have seen Michigan hit 219. But it has done so when there were more top scorers nationally. Let’s hope that trend holds.
Just found out that my daughter scored 219. We are in Georgia. Your semi-finalist prediction for GA is also 219 this year. What are her chances realistically? We are keeping all fingers x-ed.
Thank you for taking the time to respond Art.
RK,
Georgia has gone as high as 220 3 of the last 8 years, but each of those years saw far more high scorers nationally. I think we’ll see about 25-35% of states come in above the most likely figure. Yes, fingers crossed!
Will 220 likely be enough for Texas?
AJ,
The good news is that Texas has been at 219 that last few years. The bad news, it hit 221 for 3 years in a row during what was an uptick in scores between the classes of 2018 and 2020. I don’t think the overall uptick will be that high this year, but I’d say that there is still a 15-20% chance that Texas would reach 221.
Hi Art,
I got 212 in Missouri. Would you expect that I just get commended or is it unlikely that I will get semifinalist?
Yusuf,
You will be at least a Commended Student. I’m afraid that it is unlikely that Missouri will go to 212 this year. But the reason I included it in the estimated range is that it is not impossible.
Hey Art! I was wondering what your thoughts are on the chances of my friend’s son making semifinalist with an SI of 213 in KY. Please let me know!
JK,
I pay close attention to what cutoffs have done since the class of 2017 (when the PSAT was revised). Kentucky has seen a 7-point gap between high (218) and low (211). That makes it hard to predict with confidence. I set my “most likely” as 214 because in the years I consider most similar to this one, Kentucky was at 214 and 215. It’s been considerably lower recently. If I had to put a number to it, I’d say that there is a 30% chance that 213 will be high enough.
Hey Art, My NC kiddo just got her scores today. She has a 218. We were both excited and surprised! I hadn’t even considered that she would be in the running, but here we are. What are her chances for being a semi finalist? How likely is the likely cutoff above?
Great score! I think her chances are good, just not guaranteed. We saw higher cutoffs in the classes of 2018-2020. As I’ve pointed out to other folks, though, those years had unusually high numbers of top scorers. I find that cutoffs fall above my most likely estimates about 30% of the time.
Should we be very optimistic about 220 in Wisconsin?
JO,
That’s start-planning-your-finalist-essay territory. Congratulations!
Also, does a higher superscore mean higher chance of advancing from finalist to scholarship stage? Thanks, Isaac
It does not. The confirming SAT level (generally the Commended cutoff) is pass/fail. Having a higher score does not make it more likely to qualify. NMSC doesn’t superscore, but they do take your best SAT Selection Index.
Hi Art,
Should I consider my chances at all with a 213 in PA?
Branda,
You should plan on being a proud Commended Student. I’m afraid that 213 will be below Pennsylvania’s Semifinalist level.
My daughter got a 208. So close to a commended letter.
Our school hasn’t had a commended student since the Class of 2021, and before that it was one in the Class of 2019 so I’m really proud of her!
Nikki,
As well you should be! I think there is a chance that the Commended level will only go up a point. Good luck to your daughter!
Hi Art,
I commented before saying I got a 214 from ut and I just wanted to confirm that this score should be good for nms. I see the predicted ut cutoff score is 212 and i wanted to ask if there is any chance that there’d be any sudden change. i of course trust you guys and your prediction, but I just wanted to confirm.
Thanks!
Jameson,
I think a 214 is more likely than not to qualify. It would require a 6 point jump in Utah’s cutoff to miss, and that’s highly unusual. Over the last 8 years, though, Utah has seen 215/216 cutoffs 4 times. Most of those occurred in years where we saw more high scores than showed up this year. But I don’t think we can completely rule out a 215.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all the predictions for the states. My daughter received a 224 selection index in California. Do you think she would qualify as a semifinalist? Thanks!
Leela,
Yes, congratulations to your daughter! A 224 will qualify in CA.
Hi Art,
Would a 218 in Ohio quality for National Merit, especially since people felt the digital felt easier for many people?
Thanks for all the advice you provide!
Aakash,
The numbers showed more high scorers than in recent years, but it was not unusually high. In the last 8 years, we have only seen Ohio go to 219 twice — but those WERE years in which we saw unusually high scores. I don’t think a 218 is guaranteed, but you are in excellent shape.
Greetings Mr. Sawyer.
I was wondering if a 219 Index would be enough for Semifinalist in Nevada, and if your table reflects the additional scores that were released today for the latter half of testers? Additionally, how are Scholars chosen from pool of Finalists and how are Finalists chosen from the pool of Semifinalists? I know that the pool of top 50,000 of the 1+ Million test-takers are chosen based on scores, with the lower percentiles of the pool awarded commendation, and higher percentiles of the pool given semifinalists. But from there, from the semifinalist list, how do they determine advancement to finalist, is it their score, their application, a random lottery, etc. that determines advancement? And the same question from finalist to scholar.
Again, thanks for an outstanding and informative article.
Russell,
Yes, the current table reflects the second round of testers. You’ll be named a Semifinalist (congratulations!), but what comes next? You’ll be asked to complete an online application (sort of a barebones college app with academic and non-academic information and an essay). NMSC will look at your grades. You’ll need to get a “confirming” SAT or ACT score. That basically means that you need an SAT Selection Index at least as high as the Commended cutoff (we’ll round up and call it 210). That should be no trouble for you. You’ll also need a recommendation from your school. NMSC does not provide any information about the minimums it expects in terms of academic record. But keep in mind that 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists move to Finalist. At that point, your application and your college choice plays a big role. If your top choice (what you list with NMSC late next year) is a school that provides NM scholarships, then you are almost guaranteed to receive one. If you choose to attend a school that does not offer a NM scholarship or fail to list a school as your top choice, then you will compete for about 2,500 scholarships funded by NMSC. There is more information in my other post: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/.
Hi Art,
My daughter has. 219 in Minnesota. Would this qualify her for as a Semifinalist? Or could there be changes in the Selection Index cutoff due to the glitches in the digital test this year? Thank you for your insight!
Tim,
I think 219 is going to be sufficient this year. Scores were a bit higher, than in the last few years, but not as high as what we saw for the classes of 2018-2020. Minnesota’s cutoff did hit 220 twice during those years, so I don’t think we can say that a 219 is guaranteed.
Hi Art,
I heard in the webinar that most score cutoffs are most likely to rise. Do you think an SI of 219 in Ohio will get me National Merit Semifinalist?
Thanks you for all that you do for Compass.
Nick,
They are likely to rise, but my estimates take that into account. Ohio has never hit 220, so I feel confident that your 219 will qualify.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
How big of a chance is there for TX’s cutoff to remain unchanged? I got a 219 index score and am really hoping the cutoff doesn’t increase to 220!
Hannah,
Texas has stayed in a narrower range (219 – 221) than most states, but I know that one of those scores is a lot better for you than the other 2. I’d say that we’re looking at about a 1 in 3 chance of it staying at 219. Good luck!
Hi Mr Sawyer, Thank you for the update! So your information is with ALL the scores for NMSQT for class of 2025? I have a 221 selection index for Colorado. What is the likelihood that that score would make the National Merit Semifinalist cut off? I have the asterisk by my score because I did not fill out the “are you a traditional or homeschool student” questions so they say my scores won’t count for National merit. I called them and sent an email to petition having my eligibility reinstated. What is the likelihood they will allow my scores to count? I am a junior at a hybrid school. Is there anything I can do to help myself get reconsidered besides that email to them? They say the won’t review the petition until January.
Bryce,
A 221 will qualify in Colorado! It sounds like you have already taken the correct steps. NMSC is intent on making sure that students meeting entry requirements are allowed to enter. It doesn’t sound like your situation has much uncertainty.
Bummed a greater than 99th percentile still isn’t enough for the high CT cutoff (selection index 220).
Julie,
It’s not the score I estimated as the most likely, but there is a decent chance that the cutoff will be at 220 this year. It has been at 221 the last two years, but it was at 220 the 2 years before that. I’d estimate that there is still a 1 in 3 chance of the cutoff moving to 220.
Would a 216 most likely qualify me for National Merit in Indian(Class of 2025)? Or will it increase since the cutoff was 216 in class of 2024?
Andy,
I think a 216 is more likely than not to qualify. It’s not quite high enough to say that it is guaranteed. 75% chance?
I just got my score back as a 210 in Oklahoma. Do you think that it will jump back above 210 this year? what do you think my chances for being commended or being a semifinalist are? I’m pretty worried since your estimate says 211 in Oklahoma.
Landon,
Oklahoma’s cutoff has been 1 to 5 points above the Commended cutoff the last 8 years. With the Commended cutoff likely to go up this year, that makes it a bit more likely that the cutoff will go to 211. I think there might be 30% chance of it staying at 210 or below. We’ll know a bit more when the Commended cutoff becomes know in late April.
Hi Art,
What are the odds that a 216 qualifies for Indiana (Class of 2025)? You have 216 as the most likely cutoff, however you also predict that cutoffs will rise this year. Since Indiana was at 216 last year, do you think it will hold?
Thank you in advance.
Aiden,
Your points are why I downplay my “most likely” scores as only estimates. While I think that most cutoffs will go up, Indiana’s 216 was already up from the 215/215/214 seen in the 3 prior years. So I’d say it is close between a 216 and 217. Maybe a 60-70% chance that it holds at 216.