Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
May I move on from cautiously optimistic to optimistic with 222 SI for California? You have predicted 221. Thank you!
Paul,
I would. Even highly optimistic. We’ve only seen California hit 223 in that one very unusual year when the Commended cutoff went to 212. I included it as the high end of the range because, well, it has happened. Very unlikely this year.
221 for Minnesota is in the 98th percentile, will it make the cutoff?
Joanna,
While percentiles are not accurate in predicting cutoffs, I’m confident that a 221 will be high enough. Minnesota has never seen even a 221 cutoff, so it won’t be moving to 222 this year. Congratulations!
Do you think 222 should be optimistic too for Mass? Great article and thanks!
Sean,
Yes. Maybe just a smidge less so than the California student. Massachusetts and California track each other closely. In the last 8 years, they have the same cutoff 4 times, and Massachusetts has been 1 point higher 4 times. That also means that MA has hit 223 twice in the last 8 years rather than just once. But as with CA, it only happened when we saw a vastly higher number of top band scorers. It just doesn’t seem like a 223 year in MA.
Hi Art,
Do you think I should get my hopes up with a 220 in PA? It’s only one point above your estimate, so I’m crossing fingers and toes!
Thanks,
Sam
Sam,
It’s good to hear that you are taking those extra precautions. I don’t think they’ll be necessary. Pennsylvania has never seen a 221 cutoff. If we had seen wildly inflated scores, I might be more concerned about a new record (i was concerned just enough to extend my estimated range to 221). I think you are in excellent shape!
Hi Art,
Is it hopeful for me to become a semi finalist if I have SI of 216 for Florida? Thank you!
Ava,
Higher or lower scores are always possible, but my assessment of Florida is that it is a coin toss between 216 and 217. Good luck!
My son got a 218 in Florida, so sounds like he has a good chance then of making National Merit Semi-Finalist (the 219 in the range of possibility is scary)? It will affect our college application list, so it would be wonderful to know for sure before finalizing that this Spring/Summer (but that doesn’t sound like it will happen if we start applications early)! Also is a 1520 on the SAT a concordant score for National Merit Finalist?
Barbara,
That 219 at the top of the range is very unlikely. 5% chance? 2%? So while I can’t say that a 218 is absolutely guaranteed to qualify, I would recommend constructing your son’s search with a Semifinalist qualification in mind. I would imagine that some of the schools would still be of interest without a Semifinalist designation. Alas, you won’t have final confirmation until September. And you won’t get word on Finalist status until January.
Yes, a 1520 is going to be high enough to serve as a confirming scores for Finalist.
Hi Art,
As you state, this year looks very similar to 2021. In 2021 for Wisconsin, the actual index cut off number was 213 when the commended was 209. Why do you believe Wisconsin is 214 this year with the same commended number of 209? Is there a chance it could fall to 213 or are you very confident it will stay at 214? We lost some hope as our score is 213.
KJ,
Never lose hope over what some random guy says on the internet — even if that guy is me. You are right about the 213 in the Class of 2021. But we saw it move to 214 when the Commended dropped the next year. Granted, we might want to throw that out given the pandemic cancellations. If we go all the way back to the class of 2017, WI was at 215 with a Commended at 209. That was the first year for the new test, so I don’t put a lot of stock in it. If we see the Commended go up by 2 points to 209, I think there is a decent chance that there are enough high scores that Wisconsin will move up a notch. That’s why I decided on 214 as the Most Likely. But for the reason you gave and the caveats I’ve made, I think 213 is in the mix.
Good morning- We live in Alabama and my son got a 213. You estimated the cutoff for Alabama to be 212. I’m certainly hopeful you are correct. I recently went through a divorce. I am really praying my son qualifies as my older son did for the class of 2019. Thank you so much for your predictions. You gave me hope.
Margaret,
I certainly hope so, too. Your family’s situation reminds me of why National Merit can be so important for some students. Best of luck!
If I got a score of 211 in New Jersey, could I be considered for commended?
Nia,
Yes, I think you will be a Commended Student.
Hey art , I received a 214 in Arizona. Is there any hope
John,
Talk about a state that can’t make up its mind… Arizona’s cutoff has jumped all over the place. There is still hope.
thank you so much for the insight john. What percent chances are there for the cutoff to drop to 214 in arizona
John,
I think it’s possible — it was 214 for the class of 2023 — but I think it is unlikely given the number of high scores we saw nationally this year. That usually means a bump up in state results. Maybe 10-15%?
Hi Art,
We appreciate your effort into the detailed analysis and responses you provide to students and parents on your website. It is definitely very informative and resourceful.
My kid’s score in Texas is a 760 RW and 710 Math with a Selection Index Score of 223.
We are hopeful that will be enough for semifinalist cutoff in Texas. It will be a long wait till September to know for certain.
Thanks,
SPR,
Thank you for the kind words.
Your wait should be a pleasant one. A 223 will definitely qualify.
Hi Art,
And hat kind of recognition would you predict with a 216 in Oklahoma? I’m not sure that I’m reading your data correctly… also, how do the 1,000 finalists get sifted out from the semifinalists?
Thanks so much for the hard work you put in!
Wynn,
I really like your chances, especially how Oklahoma has trended the last few years. We’ve never seen a 217, and the last 216 cutoff was during one of the really high years nationally (class of 2018).
Wynn,
I forgot to answer the second part. In order to qualify as Finalists, NMSFs must have a sterling academic record (NMSC doesn’t specify a cutoff), a qualifying SAT or ACT score, a recommendation from their school, and a completed application. NMSC has never said why students fail to qualify, but my guess it is in the order I listed.
Hi, thanks so much for the great info! What’re your thoughts on a 222 in CT?
FFC,
You should be good! CT’s cutoff is among the most stable in the country. It has only hit 222 once, and there is nothing to make me believe it will go any higher.
Hello Art,
I’m at a 216 index in Nevada. I noticied that the state has one of the highest estimated ranges for cutoff scores (210-218) with a most likely score at 214. How are my chances?
Jake,
Nevada has been as high as 218 and as low as 210 in just the last few years, so it is a tough one to pin down. In the class years that I consider the best analogues for this year — 2021 and 2017 — Nevada was at 214 and 215. I like your chances, but NV has had some crazy bounces.
Hi Art,
How do you feel about the odds that Arizona could move above a 218 selection index this year? Thanks!
Jason,
Arizona is one of those states that has seen significant swings. I think 218 is more likely than not to qualify. 75%?
I’m currently a sophomore in Nebraska and I got a 217 index score. If I were to get that same score next year, do you think I have a chance to be a semifinalist?
Dylan,
Great score as a sophomore! Yes, I think you’d qualify. Obviously we don’t know yet how your class will perform on next year’s test.
Hello Art,
Thank you for all the helpful information. It’s been extremely helpful explaining all this information to my parents. I recently got a 216 (I live in Missouri) so if you were me would you plan college visits/planning around the assumption that I got the scholarship. I know there have been higher cutoffs in Missouri (From 2018-2020 the cutoff was 217 in Missouri) but I’m hoping the scores haven’t recovered yet from the pandemic.
James,
I don’t know if you should listen to me for your college planning, but I’m a believer in being prepared. I think your chances are good enough that you should be at least factoring it into your planning.
And I’m glad that I was able to help your parents!
Hi Art,
We noticed that you projected the Nebraska Cutoff to be 213 for the Class of 2025, meaning a 3-point increase from last year’s 210 cutoff. However, we didn’t really see any other time that the index increased by 3 points from the previous year. A couple of people from my schools, including myself got a 212 this year. Do you think the cutoff can be 212 for Nebraska? We are hoping to qualify this year, and thanks in advance! Also, we were wondering if the National Merit Corporation bases their scores on a pre-set number of people they are hoping to award in each state or if there is another way it is determined.
Krish,
Thank you for keeping me honest with your number-crunching. I certainly don’t discount 212 as the cutoff. With 210, 212, 210 the last 3 years, you have a good argument. One of the things I took into account is how a state performed in the class of 2021 (and to a lesser degree the class of 2017), since there were a similar number of 1400-1520 scorers. Nebraska was at 213 and 215, respectively. But you definitely have recency in your favor.
It is preset based on the number of high school graduates. Nebraska had 83 two years ago and 111 last year. It can jump around like that in a small state because of how many students can cluster at the same score. NMSC doesn’t say what the target number is, but it is probably around 100.
Thanks a lot for the response!
What do you think the percent chance for a 212 in Nebraska would be…?
Krish,
Small states can see big changes, so they are always tricky to predict. Nebraska’s cutoff has always been a few points above the Commended level, so it is almost certain to move up. Will it move above 212? I think it’s close to 50/50.
Hi Art, first of all thank you for the article and its very informative.
Can we be hopeful to be named as a Semifinalist with a 221 SI in Texas. I see that you have predcited the most likley SI to be 220 for Texas.
Thanks!
Rao,
Texas has never hit 222, so I think you are in excellent shape!
Hi Art. Great info.
Daughter scored 214 in Oklahoma. I find the wide predicted range (208-216) interesting. I’m guessing that’s due to the state’s small size? How confident should we feel?
Byron,
That’s right, we’ve seen some large swings in Oklahoma. The good news is that we have only seen the cutoff go above 214 in years where the Commended level was 211 and 212. So I think your daughter has an excellent shot — especially because OK’s cutoff has been so low recently. I just don’t think we can consider it a sure thing.
Hey Art!
Can I be fairly confident with a 220 Index in NC? Thank you so much!
Josh,
You should be highly confident. North Carolina only hit 220 in the very unusual class of 2019. It’s extremely unlikely that it could get to 221 this year.
How confident are you about the 219 cutoff for Illinois? I’m right at 219 and am absolutely stressing.
Kate,
When I give a Most Likely estimate, it means that it could dip above or below that number. If it dips below, wonderful! I can’t say what will happen in Illinois, but I can say that we see cutoffs fall above the most likely estimate about 30% across all states. Sorry, I know the wait can be tough.
Hello, my daughter is studying abroad is Spain this year. She received a 222 which in our home state CT would seem to qualify her for NMS, everything I read says she would need a 223 or 224. How is it that they can change the maximum for an individual studying for one year abroad when their home state is CT. Why wouldn’t they be put in the pool of her home – where I pay taxes and the one she will use for her college applications. It just seems wrong. It’s not as if a semester or two abroad gives her an advantage to score highter on the PSAT.
Tara,
I understand the frustration. NMSC has some quirky rules that have not changed in decades. Why does a boarding school necessarily get treated differently, for example? Why does a West Virginia student who goes to school in Virginia have a 13-14 point differential? Students abroad face similar oddities. Congratulations on your daughter’s phenomenal score, and let’s hope New Jersey keeps itself in check this year! If it stays at 222, then the studying abroad cutoff will also be at 222 (I don’t see another state claiming the crown).
Hello, my son recieved a 1390 total score (680 reading and 710 math). That is a 207 NMSC score. I was wondering if this is enough for being commended in Ohio, since he’s apparently right on the edge.
Also the article states that 50,000 gets chosen for either commended or national merit semi finalist, but also 52,000-54,000 receives honors. Does he have a chance of being in the 52-54 thousand with his 207 score if he doesn’t have a chance of being commended and what “honor” would he receive that he can put on college applications?
Thanks, Fanaye Mamo
Fanaye,
The Commended cutoff is uniform across the country. It’s possible that we see not change this year, but the higher number of top scorers makes me think that it will likely be 208 or 209.
Thanks for pointing out that discrepancy. Even National Merit will use the shorthand of “50,000.” The exact number depends on how many students fall exactly at the cutoff and is typically 52,000 – 54,000. I was just being more exact in the one case. I am using “honor” to encompass Commended, Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar.
My son scored a 226 in Florida. Should that qualify him as a semifinalist?
A score of 226 leaves no doubt in any state. Congratulations to your son!
I have a high enough score on the PSAT to go forth to semifinalist (228), but I’m slightly worried about how it says “Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college coursework taken” in the national merit’s official leaflet as a requirement for finalist. I have an unweighted GPA of around 3.3 and a weighted of 4.1 in Massachusetts for the past three years, would that be enough to progress?
Thank you,
Isaac
Isaac,
Amazing job! NMSC doesn’t provide guidelines on what is or is not very high academic performance, so I don’t want to speculate. Put together great grades this year and stay positive.
I know this is focused on overall NMS Finalists but is there any range/guestimate for what raw score will equal the top 10% in each state for National Recognition purposes? Looking at small town recognition in Texas with a 1290. Seems like it might be right on the cuff. I haven’t been able to even find these numbers from past years just to get a range. Thanks!
KM,
The National Recognition programs changed greatly over the last few years, and College Board hasn’t publicly listed cutoffs. This is a case where I would look to the percentiles. Your student’s online report will give their state percentile ranking. You’ll want to see a number at 90th percentile or better. Unfortunately, percentiles are based on the prior 3 years, so this won’t tell you for sure whether or not your student qualifies.
Hi Art,
I see that you’re projecting cutoffs in most states to rise. I’m curious why that’s not the case for Washington.
I appreciate all the info and analysis you provide, by the way!
MS,
Good question. The most reliable historical numbers come post-PSAT revision, so class of 2017 onward. In 5 of 8 of those years, Washington has been at exactly 220. The years where it was higher were years where we saw “inflated” scores across the country. From what I am seeing nationally, I don’t think this year is in the same category. But you are right that there is going to be a lot of upward movement this year. I think Washington will be at 220 or 221, but I felt the history was with 220.