April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
May I move on from cautiously optimistic to optimistic with 222 SI for California? You have predicted 221. Thank you!
Paul,
I would. Even highly optimistic. We’ve only seen California hit 223 in that one very unusual year when the Commended cutoff went to 212. I included it as the high end of the range because, well, it has happened. Very unlikely this year.
221 for Minnesota is in the 98th percentile, will it make the cutoff?
Joanna,
While percentiles are not accurate in predicting cutoffs, I’m confident that a 221 will be high enough. Minnesota has never seen even a 221 cutoff, so it won’t be moving to 222 this year. Congratulations!
Do you think 222 should be optimistic too for Mass? Great article and thanks!
Sean,
Yes. Maybe just a smidge less so than the California student. Massachusetts and California track each other closely. In the last 8 years, they have the same cutoff 4 times, and Massachusetts has been 1 point higher 4 times. That also means that MA has hit 223 twice in the last 8 years rather than just once. But as with CA, it only happened when we saw a vastly higher number of top band scorers. It just doesn’t seem like a 223 year in MA.
Hi Art,
Do you think I should get my hopes up with a 220 in PA? It’s only one point above your estimate, so I’m crossing fingers and toes!
Thanks,
Sam
Sam,
It’s good to hear that you are taking those extra precautions. I don’t think they’ll be necessary. Pennsylvania has never seen a 221 cutoff. If we had seen wildly inflated scores, I might be more concerned about a new record (i was concerned just enough to extend my estimated range to 221). I think you are in excellent shape!
Hi Art,
Is it hopeful for me to become a semi finalist if I have SI of 216 for Florida? Thank you!
Ava,
Higher or lower scores are always possible, but my assessment of Florida is that it is a coin toss between 216 and 217. Good luck!
My son got a 218 in Florida, so sounds like he has a good chance then of making National Merit Semi-Finalist (the 219 in the range of possibility is scary)? It will affect our college application list, so it would be wonderful to know for sure before finalizing that this Spring/Summer (but that doesn’t sound like it will happen if we start applications early)! Also is a 1520 on the SAT a concordant score for National Merit Finalist?
Barbara,
That 219 at the top of the range is very unlikely. 5% chance? 2%? So while I can’t say that a 218 is absolutely guaranteed to qualify, I would recommend constructing your son’s search with a Semifinalist qualification in mind. I would imagine that some of the schools would still be of interest without a Semifinalist designation. Alas, you won’t have final confirmation until September. And you won’t get word on Finalist status until January.
Yes, a 1520 is going to be high enough to serve as a confirming scores for Finalist.
Hi Art,
As you state, this year looks very similar to 2021. In 2021 for Wisconsin, the actual index cut off number was 213 when the commended was 209. Why do you believe Wisconsin is 214 this year with the same commended number of 209? Is there a chance it could fall to 213 or are you very confident it will stay at 214? We lost some hope as our score is 213.
KJ,
Never lose hope over what some random guy says on the internet — even if that guy is me. You are right about the 213 in the Class of 2021. But we saw it move to 214 when the Commended dropped the next year. Granted, we might want to throw that out given the pandemic cancellations. If we go all the way back to the class of 2017, WI was at 215 with a Commended at 209. That was the first year for the new test, so I don’t put a lot of stock in it. If we see the Commended go up by 2 points to 209, I think there is a decent chance that there are enough high scores that Wisconsin will move up a notch. That’s why I decided on 214 as the Most Likely. But for the reason you gave and the caveats I’ve made, I think 213 is in the mix.
Good morning- We live in Alabama and my son got a 213. You estimated the cutoff for Alabama to be 212. I’m certainly hopeful you are correct. I recently went through a divorce. I am really praying my son qualifies as my older son did for the class of 2019. Thank you so much for your predictions. You gave me hope.
Margaret,
I certainly hope so, too. Your family’s situation reminds me of why National Merit can be so important for some students. Best of luck!
If I got a score of 211 in New Jersey, could I be considered for commended?
Nia,
Yes, I think you will be a Commended Student.
Hey art , I received a 214 in Arizona. Is there any hope
John,
Talk about a state that can’t make up its mind… Arizona’s cutoff has jumped all over the place. There is still hope.
thank you so much for the insight john. What percent chances are there for the cutoff to drop to 214 in arizona
John,
I think it’s possible — it was 214 for the class of 2023 — but I think it is unlikely given the number of high scores we saw nationally this year. That usually means a bump up in state results. Maybe 10-15%?
Hi Art,
We appreciate your effort into the detailed analysis and responses you provide to students and parents on your website. It is definitely very informative and resourceful.
My kid’s score in Texas is a 760 RW and 710 Math with a Selection Index Score of 223.
We are hopeful that will be enough for semifinalist cutoff in Texas. It will be a long wait till September to know for certain.
Thanks,
SPR,
Thank you for the kind words.
Your wait should be a pleasant one. A 223 will definitely qualify.
Hi Art,
And hat kind of recognition would you predict with a 216 in Oklahoma? I’m not sure that I’m reading your data correctly… also, how do the 1,000 finalists get sifted out from the semifinalists?
Thanks so much for the hard work you put in!
Wynn,
I really like your chances, especially how Oklahoma has trended the last few years. We’ve never seen a 217, and the last 216 cutoff was during one of the really high years nationally (class of 2018).
Wynn,
I forgot to answer the second part. In order to qualify as Finalists, NMSFs must have a sterling academic record (NMSC doesn’t specify a cutoff), a qualifying SAT or ACT score, a recommendation from their school, and a completed application. NMSC has never said why students fail to qualify, but my guess it is in the order I listed.
Hi, thanks so much for the great info! What’re your thoughts on a 222 in CT?
FFC,
You should be good! CT’s cutoff is among the most stable in the country. It has only hit 222 once, and there is nothing to make me believe it will go any higher.
Hello Art,
I’m at a 216 index in Nevada. I noticied that the state has one of the highest estimated ranges for cutoff scores (210-218) with a most likely score at 214. How are my chances?
Jake,
Nevada has been as high as 218 and as low as 210 in just the last few years, so it is a tough one to pin down. In the class years that I consider the best analogues for this year — 2021 and 2017 — Nevada was at 214 and 215. I like your chances, but NV has had some crazy bounces.
Hi Art,
How do you feel about the odds that Arizona could move above a 218 selection index this year? Thanks!
Jason,
Arizona is one of those states that has seen significant swings. I think 218 is more likely than not to qualify. 75%?
I’m currently a sophomore in Nebraska and I got a 217 index score. If I were to get that same score next year, do you think I have a chance to be a semifinalist?
Dylan,
Great score as a sophomore! Yes, I think you’d qualify. Obviously we don’t know yet how your class will perform on next year’s test.
Hello Art,
Thank you for all the helpful information. It’s been extremely helpful explaining all this information to my parents. I recently got a 216 (I live in Missouri) so if you were me would you plan college visits/planning around the assumption that I got the scholarship. I know there have been higher cutoffs in Missouri (From 2018-2020 the cutoff was 217 in Missouri) but I’m hoping the scores haven’t recovered yet from the pandemic.
James,
I don’t know if you should listen to me for your college planning, but I’m a believer in being prepared. I think your chances are good enough that you should be at least factoring it into your planning.
And I’m glad that I was able to help your parents!
Hi Art,
We noticed that you projected the Nebraska Cutoff to be 213 for the Class of 2025, meaning a 3-point increase from last year’s 210 cutoff. However, we didn’t really see any other time that the index increased by 3 points from the previous year. A couple of people from my schools, including myself got a 212 this year. Do you think the cutoff can be 212 for Nebraska? We are hoping to qualify this year, and thanks in advance! Also, we were wondering if the National Merit Corporation bases their scores on a pre-set number of people they are hoping to award in each state or if there is another way it is determined.
Krish,
Thank you for keeping me honest with your number-crunching. I certainly don’t discount 212 as the cutoff. With 210, 212, 210 the last 3 years, you have a good argument. One of the things I took into account is how a state performed in the class of 2021 (and to a lesser degree the class of 2017), since there were a similar number of 1400-1520 scorers. Nebraska was at 213 and 215, respectively. But you definitely have recency in your favor.
It is preset based on the number of high school graduates. Nebraska had 83 two years ago and 111 last year. It can jump around like that in a small state because of how many students can cluster at the same score. NMSC doesn’t say what the target number is, but it is probably around 100.
Thanks a lot for the response!
What do you think the percent chance for a 212 in Nebraska would be…?
Krish,
Small states can see big changes, so they are always tricky to predict. Nebraska’s cutoff has always been a few points above the Commended level, so it is almost certain to move up. Will it move above 212? I think it’s close to 50/50.
Hi Art, first of all thank you for the article and its very informative.
Can we be hopeful to be named as a Semifinalist with a 221 SI in Texas. I see that you have predcited the most likley SI to be 220 for Texas.
Thanks!
Rao,
Texas has never hit 222, so I think you are in excellent shape!
Hi Art. Great info.
Daughter scored 214 in Oklahoma. I find the wide predicted range (208-216) interesting. I’m guessing that’s due to the state’s small size? How confident should we feel?
Byron,
That’s right, we’ve seen some large swings in Oklahoma. The good news is that we have only seen the cutoff go above 214 in years where the Commended level was 211 and 212. So I think your daughter has an excellent shot — especially because OK’s cutoff has been so low recently. I just don’t think we can consider it a sure thing.
Hey Art!
Can I be fairly confident with a 220 Index in NC? Thank you so much!
Josh,
You should be highly confident. North Carolina only hit 220 in the very unusual class of 2019. It’s extremely unlikely that it could get to 221 this year.
How confident are you about the 219 cutoff for Illinois? I’m right at 219 and am absolutely stressing.
Kate,
When I give a Most Likely estimate, it means that it could dip above or below that number. If it dips below, wonderful! I can’t say what will happen in Illinois, but I can say that we see cutoffs fall above the most likely estimate about 30% across all states. Sorry, I know the wait can be tough.
Hello, my daughter is studying abroad is Spain this year. She received a 222 which in our home state CT would seem to qualify her for NMS, everything I read says she would need a 223 or 224. How is it that they can change the maximum for an individual studying for one year abroad when their home state is CT. Why wouldn’t they be put in the pool of her home – where I pay taxes and the one she will use for her college applications. It just seems wrong. It’s not as if a semester or two abroad gives her an advantage to score highter on the PSAT.
Tara,
I understand the frustration. NMSC has some quirky rules that have not changed in decades. Why does a boarding school necessarily get treated differently, for example? Why does a West Virginia student who goes to school in Virginia have a 13-14 point differential? Students abroad face similar oddities. Congratulations on your daughter’s phenomenal score, and let’s hope New Jersey keeps itself in check this year! If it stays at 222, then the studying abroad cutoff will also be at 222 (I don’t see another state claiming the crown).
Hello, my son recieved a 1390 total score (680 reading and 710 math). That is a 207 NMSC score. I was wondering if this is enough for being commended in Ohio, since he’s apparently right on the edge.
Also the article states that 50,000 gets chosen for either commended or national merit semi finalist, but also 52,000-54,000 receives honors. Does he have a chance of being in the 52-54 thousand with his 207 score if he doesn’t have a chance of being commended and what “honor” would he receive that he can put on college applications?
Thanks, Fanaye Mamo
Fanaye,
The Commended cutoff is uniform across the country. It’s possible that we see not change this year, but the higher number of top scorers makes me think that it will likely be 208 or 209.
Thanks for pointing out that discrepancy. Even National Merit will use the shorthand of “50,000.” The exact number depends on how many students fall exactly at the cutoff and is typically 52,000 – 54,000. I was just being more exact in the one case. I am using “honor” to encompass Commended, Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar.
My son scored a 226 in Florida. Should that qualify him as a semifinalist?
A score of 226 leaves no doubt in any state. Congratulations to your son!
I have a high enough score on the PSAT to go forth to semifinalist (228), but I’m slightly worried about how it says “Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college coursework taken” in the national merit’s official leaflet as a requirement for finalist. I have an unweighted GPA of around 3.3 and a weighted of 4.1 in Massachusetts for the past three years, would that be enough to progress?
Thank you,
Isaac
Isaac,
Amazing job! NMSC doesn’t provide guidelines on what is or is not very high academic performance, so I don’t want to speculate. Put together great grades this year and stay positive.
I know this is focused on overall NMS Finalists but is there any range/guestimate for what raw score will equal the top 10% in each state for National Recognition purposes? Looking at small town recognition in Texas with a 1290. Seems like it might be right on the cuff. I haven’t been able to even find these numbers from past years just to get a range. Thanks!
KM,
The National Recognition programs changed greatly over the last few years, and College Board hasn’t publicly listed cutoffs. This is a case where I would look to the percentiles. Your student’s online report will give their state percentile ranking. You’ll want to see a number at 90th percentile or better. Unfortunately, percentiles are based on the prior 3 years, so this won’t tell you for sure whether or not your student qualifies.
Hi Art,
I see that you’re projecting cutoffs in most states to rise. I’m curious why that’s not the case for Washington.
I appreciate all the info and analysis you provide, by the way!
MS,
Good question. The most reliable historical numbers come post-PSAT revision, so class of 2017 onward. In 5 of 8 of those years, Washington has been at exactly 220. The years where it was higher were years where we saw “inflated” scores across the country. From what I am seeing nationally, I don’t think this year is in the same category. But you are right that there is going to be a lot of upward movement this year. I think Washington will be at 220 or 221, but I felt the history was with 220.