**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My son earned a 212 in SD. Do you anticipate he may receive any recognition? Thank you for time, expertise, and advice!
Meg,
At minimum, he will be a Commended student. It is always tricky to pin down the Semifinalist cutoffs in small states such as South Dakota. Its cutoffs have been between 208 and 215 over the last 8 years. In the years I consider most like this one, the cutoff has been at 212 or below, which is why I’d say there is a 75% chance that a 212 will qualify.
Hello Art
Thank you for taking the time to answer all our questions so well.
We are in Georgia and my daughter scored 219. Your prediction for our state is 219 for this year. What are the chances the cutoff could be 220 (or higher) for GA?
Khokale,
The rule of thumb I use is that about 30-35% of states will come in with cutoffs above the most likely estimate. I think that’s probably fair as an estimate for GA. The state has hit 220 in 3 of the last 8 years, but those are the 3 years where we saw far more top scorers nationally than we have seen this year. I’m afraid that 219 is a “be-hopeful-but-wait-until-September” score.
Hey Art, I received a 214 in the state or Arizona, what are the odds of Arizona’s cutoff to drop to 214.
Will,
We did see a 214 qualify just 2 years ago. I think scores are more likely to go up rather than down this year, but a 214 is not impossible. Honestly, I can’t give it high odds. 10%?
Hi Art,
Thank you for explaining all of this! My kid received a 224 for NJ…. I know your likely estimate is for the cutoff to remain at 223. Would you be able to give me an idea of what the chances are that the cutoff in NJ will exceed 224? Thanks so much!
SI,
I’ve gone on record before as saying that we will never see a 225 cutoff. I’m now on record again. Congratulations to your student!
Hi Art, My daughter scored 217 which is exactly the listed predicted cutoff score in our state (Oregon). Would you apply your general caution that there is about a 30% chance of a higher than predicted cutoff here? Or is Oregon more of a wild card given our cutoff has bounced four points in a year at times over the past five years. Thank you so much for this work you do and share!
Jennifer,
I think that 30% chance is fair for Oregon. Most of your state’s PSATs were cancelled in the class of 2022, so there were a lot of alternate entrants qualifying with SAT scores (so usually higher). So if we throw out that class, Oregon has been at 217 since the class of 2021. But, yes, those cutoffs go higher as you go back farther. Just about every state is a wildcard to one degree or another!
Art, thank you for all that you do. The information is always excellent, and the personal replies to the thousands that write you seems like a Herculean effort. It’s impressive all around.
Thank you, Nick!
Thank you for posting this information. I was curious about the following: I see that the predicted “most likely” cutoffs for 2025 are all either greater than or equal to 2024 cutoffs. What percentage of 2025 state cutoffs do you realistically think will be on the low end of the estimated ranges you have posted? What are the key factors that cause a dip? Sorry if I missed this on the post.
Anon,
At the very low end of the cutoffs? Probably not that many. I try to have ranges that encompass about 95% of cutoffs (and some of those misses will be at the high end of the range). So maybe 3-4 states at the low end of the range? Test taking behavior can change, and those changes don’t have to be large to move the cutoffs in some states. Also, cutoffs are all or nothing. Everyone at 220 makes it or no one at 220 makes it, for example. So the difference can hinge on a small number of students. The test itself can be unpredictable, and scores can “clump” together. I think that’s likely to be less of an issue this year with the digital SAT, but we really don’t know.
Hello Art,
Thank you for your excellent summary. Our son received a 216 in the state of Ohio. If I understand your analysis correctly, he will be a commended student but unlikely to be a semifinalist. Is this correct?
Thank you again and enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday!
Actually, I think he is more likely to make the Semifinalist cutoff than to miss it (he is guaranteed to at least be Commended). We have seen higher cutoffs in Ohio, but they’ve been in years where we have seen more higher scorers nationally. My estimate is that 30-35% of states will see cutoffs above my “most likely” figures, so 65-70% is not a bad estimate of your son’s chances.
Thank you. Have a great Thanksgiving week!
Hi Art,
My niece got a 213 in Louisiana. Fingers crossed for a 1 point drop.
I did notice that there are only 199 semi finalists in the class of 2024, but there were 235 in the class of 2023, 234 in 2022, and 233 in 2021. Does that add any hope for a drop for class of 2025?
Thanks,
Elizabeth
Elizabeth,
I always appreciate when people bring their own data! That’s an interesting take. It does seem like the NMSC target for Louisiana is probably closer to 220 than it is to 200. So Louisiana might have missed having a 213 cutoff last year just by a hair. I think your take makes it slightly more likely that we could see a 213 this year. If you want some additional hope, I would point to the classes of 2017 and 2021 (years I consider the best analogues because of the national 1400-1520 bands). Those were at 214 and 212, respectively. So 213 is right in the mix. Good luck to your niece!
Hi Art, thank you for the article and its very informative.
I got selected index 220, What chances for being a semi finalist in NY?
Thanks
Mike
Mike,
Pretty good. NY has gone over 220 only in the really “high” class years of 2018 – 2020. I’d put your odds around 70-75%. I wish we could rule out 221 entirely, but I don’t think we can.
Hi Art,
I scored a 220 psat in North Carolina. Do you think that will safely qualify? If so, are all qualifiers on level ground now for the selection process for finalists or does a slightly higher psat score (say 224 versus the 220) give an advantage? Thank you.
Sincerely,
Daniel
Daniel,
Yes, I believe 220 will qualify in North Carolina. I’d go so far as to say “safely.” The SI does not matter for Finalist selection. I believe it is a factor — among many — when looking at scholarship selection (not applicable if you are receiving a school-sponsored scholarship).
Hi Art,
I got a 228 in Alabama, and I’m planning to move to a different school (still in Alabama) for my senior year. What impact could this potentially have on my future semifinalist and finalist status?
Michael,
Wow! Congratulations. You should be fine; you may just want to keep an eye on things. Given how mobile we are as a society, NMSC deals with hundreds of instances of Semifinalists moving each year. You might want to call them preemptively and ask if there is anything special that you should do. You might want to ask, for instance, about a school recommendation. Your new school will probably provide one (what school doesn’t want another Semifinalist?), but your current school might know you better. I’m not sure if getting a rec from them is even an option. The recommendation is most important if you are competing for one of the NMSC-sponsored scholarships. Most of the college-sponsored scholarships are based on whether or not you made Finalist and listed the school as your first choice. In other words, they tend not to be as competitive (and yet they can be more rewarding!).
Hi Art, I’m wondering if you also have data on how many of those in the high score range were a 1520? Nationally? By State (WA)? Just curious how many kids got that score. I know they release the number of SAT perfect scorers.
Big fan of your work! Thanks for all you do!
Shannon,
No, College Board does not report that level of granularity. I think when I’ve run back-of-the-envelope calculations and estimated around 1500 (0.1% of all test takers).
will 214 work in florida
qwerty,
It would require an unusual set of events, but I wouldn’t say that it is impossible.
Hey Art,
What are the chances percent wise for it to be 214 in Florida. Cause I saw your other post about you talking with a colleague and it made you change the cutoff to 216. Also how many people get semifinalist from Florida?
Thank you
qwerty,
While a 214 cutoff is not impossible, I think it is quite unlikely. We have not see Florida hit 215 since the revised PSAT 8 years ago. Nationwide, at least, scores seem to have bumped up a bit from prior years. So it seems unlikely that the Florida cutoff would drop 2 points. I’d put it at low single-digit odds. Florida sees about 1,000 Semifinalists each year.
Hi Art,
Do you think that there is a chance for 220 being the cutoff in VA, rather than a 2 point jump to 221?
LS,
I do think there is a chance. I wish I had a better handle on how Virginia hit 219 in the first place for the class of 2024. Was there some continuing shift or just some kind of fluke? The reason I chose 221 as my most likely is that every other year where the Commended cutoff has been less than 210 (starting from when the test changed in the class of 2017), VA’s cutoff has been 221. In the years where it was above 210, VA’s cutoff was 222. But the class of 2024 definitely showed that unusual things can happen.
Hi Art,
I scored a 220 in WA. What are the chances that this will make semi-finalist? Do you think your predictions will fluctuate with how the PSAT was administered digitally?
It is going to be close. The two classes I consider most analogous to this year’s class are those of 217 and 2021. In both cases, WA had a 220 cutoff. It’s cutoff hit 222 only during the really high Commended cutoff years that saw every state hitting records. It’s not hard to imagine an increase to 221. I’ve put the odds at 220 as 50-60%. I wouldn’t argue with 60-70%.
How uncommon is it for the cutoff to be above your whole estimated range? I’m two points above the highest score of your range for my state, but I live in a small state that doesn’t have a stable index cutoff.
Adi,
I generally try to allow for the variability in a state with the size of my ranges. I consider 2 points above the highest cutoff in my ranges to be a sure thing this year.
Hey Art, do you think 222 in California is enough to qualify as a semifinalist?
Rachel,
I think there is an extremely low probability of a 223 cutoff in CA this year. I would say that there is a 95% chance of a 222 qualifying.
Hi Art!
Thank you so much for shedding light on PSAT and NM! We weren’t really sure what to make of my son’s score at first, a 220 in Kentucky. But based on the data you analyzed and shared, things are looking up. Right? Thanks!
Marie,
That’s a great score in Kentucky, and your son will be a Semifinalist in September. Congratulations!
Thanks for all of this great information Art. My son got a 225 in VA for 2025. Do you think this puts him i the running for a semifinalist? Also , I watched your video on your predictions for 2025 and at that time, the Nov 16th scores had not come out yet. I heard that the top group which initially saw an increase had leveled off to previous years. Is this correct? thanks!
EDFM,
If you are referring to the webinar I participated in, I did have the second half data by that point. Not that it matters, since there is 0.0000000% chance of 225 not qualifying in Virginia. You are correct that the second batch had fewer high scorers in it. So while we are likely to see a Commended cutoff of 209, it won’t be something like 211 or 212. Your son is very safe.
Hi Art, thanks for your detailed analysis of PSAT scores. We are in WA state and my daughter has a 222 Selection index of 222. You predict likely as 220 and range of 218-222 for this year for WA. What are the chances that it will be higher than 222? It appears that WA state doesn’t have as much movement of the cutoff but wanted to get your thoughts.
Raj,
The highest WA has ever hit was 222 in the “high” years of 2018 and 2019. This doesn’t look like a high year and it is extremely unlikely that Washington would set a new record in a very average year. In short, a 222 will qualify.
Hello Art! Thank you so much for your analysis of National Merit. I took the PSAT this year as a junior and got a 209 index score, but a 1360 PSAT score? I’m confused about how that works because I know many people scored higher than me but ended up getting a lower index score. Additionally, I know I will not qualify for the national merit semifinalist, but do you think there’s a chance I could be commended? Thanks!
Sasa,
I think you have a very good chance of being a Commended Student — maybe 75-80%. Based on the number of top scores we have seen this year, it’s more likely that the cutoff will be at 208 or 209 than 210.
Sasa,
I forgot to answer the other part of your question. The Selection Index gives double the weight to the Reading and Writing score. This means that students with the same Total Score can have different indexes. For example, doing the math tells me that you got 730 RW and 630 M — 73×2 + 63 = 209. If you had done the opposite and received 630 RW and 730 M, your SI would have been only 199 — 63×2 + 73.
That makes a lot more sense. Thank you so much!
Hi Art,
My son got SI 215 in Missouri. what are the odds of jumping to 216 vs staying 214 or 215?
I noticed that there are more semi finalists than commended. was wondering how is it possible.
TIA.
Josh,
I think there is a 65-70% chance that a 215 will be sufficient. As is the case with most states, the scary examples are the classes of 2018 – 2020 where the cutoff hit 217 in Missouri. I don’t think we are going to see that level of increase, but it is likely to go up from last year’s 214.
The closer a state’s cutoff is to the Commended cutoff, the lower the ratio of Commended students to Semifinalists. In fact, some states, such as West Virginia, have no Commended students, because all recognized students become Semifinalists (a state’s cutoff can never go lower than the national Commended figure). At the other extreme, NJ will see 6-7x the number of Commended students as Semifinalists. For Missouri’s class of 2024, everyone with scores between 214 and 228 was a Semifinalist. Everyone between 207 and 213 was Commended. There were about the same number of students in each group.
What are the chances that a 216 qualifies for Indiana?
Meenu,
I think it’s going to be very close — as in 50/50. In the two classes I think of as analogues given the national numbers — 2017 and 2021 — Indiana had cutoffs of 217 and 215. We’ve seen it go higher than that only when we had far more 1400-1520 students than we have this year.
Hello Art! My son received a 221 for his selection index score. We live in Pennsylvania. He is hoping to be a semifinalist, but is cautious due to the change in test format and with an increased number of higher scorers. Your article and charts have helped a great deal explaining the scores as well as the process. Thank you!
PAMom,
I respect your son’s caution — some students prefer that when making the long wait until September. Between you and me…I don’t see PA going to 222. Good luck!