Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My son earned a 212 in SD. Do you anticipate he may receive any recognition? Thank you for time, expertise, and advice!
Meg,
At minimum, he will be a Commended student. It is always tricky to pin down the Semifinalist cutoffs in small states such as South Dakota. Its cutoffs have been between 208 and 215 over the last 8 years. In the years I consider most like this one, the cutoff has been at 212 or below, which is why I’d say there is a 75% chance that a 212 will qualify.
Hello Art
Thank you for taking the time to answer all our questions so well.
We are in Georgia and my daughter scored 219. Your prediction for our state is 219 for this year. What are the chances the cutoff could be 220 (or higher) for GA?
Khokale,
The rule of thumb I use is that about 30-35% of states will come in with cutoffs above the most likely estimate. I think that’s probably fair as an estimate for GA. The state has hit 220 in 3 of the last 8 years, but those are the 3 years where we saw far more top scorers nationally than we have seen this year. I’m afraid that 219 is a “be-hopeful-but-wait-until-September” score.
Hey Art, I received a 214 in the state or Arizona, what are the odds of Arizona’s cutoff to drop to 214.
Will,
We did see a 214 qualify just 2 years ago. I think scores are more likely to go up rather than down this year, but a 214 is not impossible. Honestly, I can’t give it high odds. 10%?
Hi Art,
Thank you for explaining all of this! My kid received a 224 for NJ…. I know your likely estimate is for the cutoff to remain at 223. Would you be able to give me an idea of what the chances are that the cutoff in NJ will exceed 224? Thanks so much!
SI,
I’ve gone on record before as saying that we will never see a 225 cutoff. I’m now on record again. Congratulations to your student!
Hi Art, My daughter scored 217 which is exactly the listed predicted cutoff score in our state (Oregon). Would you apply your general caution that there is about a 30% chance of a higher than predicted cutoff here? Or is Oregon more of a wild card given our cutoff has bounced four points in a year at times over the past five years. Thank you so much for this work you do and share!
Jennifer,
I think that 30% chance is fair for Oregon. Most of your state’s PSATs were cancelled in the class of 2022, so there were a lot of alternate entrants qualifying with SAT scores (so usually higher). So if we throw out that class, Oregon has been at 217 since the class of 2021. But, yes, those cutoffs go higher as you go back farther. Just about every state is a wildcard to one degree or another!
Art, thank you for all that you do. The information is always excellent, and the personal replies to the thousands that write you seems like a Herculean effort. It’s impressive all around.
Thank you, Nick!
Thank you for posting this information. I was curious about the following: I see that the predicted “most likely” cutoffs for 2025 are all either greater than or equal to 2024 cutoffs. What percentage of 2025 state cutoffs do you realistically think will be on the low end of the estimated ranges you have posted? What are the key factors that cause a dip? Sorry if I missed this on the post.
Anon,
At the very low end of the cutoffs? Probably not that many. I try to have ranges that encompass about 95% of cutoffs (and some of those misses will be at the high end of the range). So maybe 3-4 states at the low end of the range? Test taking behavior can change, and those changes don’t have to be large to move the cutoffs in some states. Also, cutoffs are all or nothing. Everyone at 220 makes it or no one at 220 makes it, for example. So the difference can hinge on a small number of students. The test itself can be unpredictable, and scores can “clump” together. I think that’s likely to be less of an issue this year with the digital SAT, but we really don’t know.
Hello Art,
Thank you for your excellent summary. Our son received a 216 in the state of Ohio. If I understand your analysis correctly, he will be a commended student but unlikely to be a semifinalist. Is this correct?
Thank you again and enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday!
Actually, I think he is more likely to make the Semifinalist cutoff than to miss it (he is guaranteed to at least be Commended). We have seen higher cutoffs in Ohio, but they’ve been in years where we have seen more higher scorers nationally. My estimate is that 30-35% of states will see cutoffs above my “most likely” figures, so 65-70% is not a bad estimate of your son’s chances.
Thank you. Have a great Thanksgiving week!
Hi Art,
My niece got a 213 in Louisiana. Fingers crossed for a 1 point drop.
I did notice that there are only 199 semi finalists in the class of 2024, but there were 235 in the class of 2023, 234 in 2022, and 233 in 2021. Does that add any hope for a drop for class of 2025?
Thanks,
Elizabeth
Elizabeth,
I always appreciate when people bring their own data! That’s an interesting take. It does seem like the NMSC target for Louisiana is probably closer to 220 than it is to 200. So Louisiana might have missed having a 213 cutoff last year just by a hair. I think your take makes it slightly more likely that we could see a 213 this year. If you want some additional hope, I would point to the classes of 2017 and 2021 (years I consider the best analogues because of the national 1400-1520 bands). Those were at 214 and 212, respectively. So 213 is right in the mix. Good luck to your niece!
Hi Art, thank you for the article and its very informative.
I got selected index 220, What chances for being a semi finalist in NY?
Thanks
Mike
Mike,
Pretty good. NY has gone over 220 only in the really “high” class years of 2018 – 2020. I’d put your odds around 70-75%. I wish we could rule out 221 entirely, but I don’t think we can.
Hi Art,
I scored a 220 psat in North Carolina. Do you think that will safely qualify? If so, are all qualifiers on level ground now for the selection process for finalists or does a slightly higher psat score (say 224 versus the 220) give an advantage? Thank you.
Sincerely,
Daniel
Daniel,
Yes, I believe 220 will qualify in North Carolina. I’d go so far as to say “safely.” The SI does not matter for Finalist selection. I believe it is a factor — among many — when looking at scholarship selection (not applicable if you are receiving a school-sponsored scholarship).
Hi Art,
I got a 228 in Alabama, and I’m planning to move to a different school (still in Alabama) for my senior year. What impact could this potentially have on my future semifinalist and finalist status?
Michael,
Wow! Congratulations. You should be fine; you may just want to keep an eye on things. Given how mobile we are as a society, NMSC deals with hundreds of instances of Semifinalists moving each year. You might want to call them preemptively and ask if there is anything special that you should do. You might want to ask, for instance, about a school recommendation. Your new school will probably provide one (what school doesn’t want another Semifinalist?), but your current school might know you better. I’m not sure if getting a rec from them is even an option. The recommendation is most important if you are competing for one of the NMSC-sponsored scholarships. Most of the college-sponsored scholarships are based on whether or not you made Finalist and listed the school as your first choice. In other words, they tend not to be as competitive (and yet they can be more rewarding!).
Hi Art, I’m wondering if you also have data on how many of those in the high score range were a 1520? Nationally? By State (WA)? Just curious how many kids got that score. I know they release the number of SAT perfect scorers.
Big fan of your work! Thanks for all you do!
Shannon,
No, College Board does not report that level of granularity. I think when I’ve run back-of-the-envelope calculations and estimated around 1500 (0.1% of all test takers).
will 214 work in florida
qwerty,
It would require an unusual set of events, but I wouldn’t say that it is impossible.
Hey Art,
What are the chances percent wise for it to be 214 in Florida. Cause I saw your other post about you talking with a colleague and it made you change the cutoff to 216. Also how many people get semifinalist from Florida?
Thank you
qwerty,
While a 214 cutoff is not impossible, I think it is quite unlikely. We have not see Florida hit 215 since the revised PSAT 8 years ago. Nationwide, at least, scores seem to have bumped up a bit from prior years. So it seems unlikely that the Florida cutoff would drop 2 points. I’d put it at low single-digit odds. Florida sees about 1,000 Semifinalists each year.
Hi Art,
Do you think that there is a chance for 220 being the cutoff in VA, rather than a 2 point jump to 221?
LS,
I do think there is a chance. I wish I had a better handle on how Virginia hit 219 in the first place for the class of 2024. Was there some continuing shift or just some kind of fluke? The reason I chose 221 as my most likely is that every other year where the Commended cutoff has been less than 210 (starting from when the test changed in the class of 2017), VA’s cutoff has been 221. In the years where it was above 210, VA’s cutoff was 222. But the class of 2024 definitely showed that unusual things can happen.
Hi Art,
I scored a 220 in WA. What are the chances that this will make semi-finalist? Do you think your predictions will fluctuate with how the PSAT was administered digitally?
It is going to be close. The two classes I consider most analogous to this year’s class are those of 217 and 2021. In both cases, WA had a 220 cutoff. It’s cutoff hit 222 only during the really high Commended cutoff years that saw every state hitting records. It’s not hard to imagine an increase to 221. I’ve put the odds at 220 as 50-60%. I wouldn’t argue with 60-70%.
How uncommon is it for the cutoff to be above your whole estimated range? I’m two points above the highest score of your range for my state, but I live in a small state that doesn’t have a stable index cutoff.
Adi,
I generally try to allow for the variability in a state with the size of my ranges. I consider 2 points above the highest cutoff in my ranges to be a sure thing this year.
Hey Art, do you think 222 in California is enough to qualify as a semifinalist?
Rachel,
I think there is an extremely low probability of a 223 cutoff in CA this year. I would say that there is a 95% chance of a 222 qualifying.
Hi Art!
Thank you so much for shedding light on PSAT and NM! We weren’t really sure what to make of my son’s score at first, a 220 in Kentucky. But based on the data you analyzed and shared, things are looking up. Right? Thanks!
Marie,
That’s a great score in Kentucky, and your son will be a Semifinalist in September. Congratulations!
Thanks for all of this great information Art. My son got a 225 in VA for 2025. Do you think this puts him i the running for a semifinalist? Also , I watched your video on your predictions for 2025 and at that time, the Nov 16th scores had not come out yet. I heard that the top group which initially saw an increase had leveled off to previous years. Is this correct? thanks!
EDFM,
If you are referring to the webinar I participated in, I did have the second half data by that point. Not that it matters, since there is 0.0000000% chance of 225 not qualifying in Virginia. You are correct that the second batch had fewer high scorers in it. So while we are likely to see a Commended cutoff of 209, it won’t be something like 211 or 212. Your son is very safe.
Hi Art, thanks for your detailed analysis of PSAT scores. We are in WA state and my daughter has a 222 Selection index of 222. You predict likely as 220 and range of 218-222 for this year for WA. What are the chances that it will be higher than 222? It appears that WA state doesn’t have as much movement of the cutoff but wanted to get your thoughts.
Raj,
The highest WA has ever hit was 222 in the “high” years of 2018 and 2019. This doesn’t look like a high year and it is extremely unlikely that Washington would set a new record in a very average year. In short, a 222 will qualify.
Hello Art! Thank you so much for your analysis of National Merit. I took the PSAT this year as a junior and got a 209 index score, but a 1360 PSAT score? I’m confused about how that works because I know many people scored higher than me but ended up getting a lower index score. Additionally, I know I will not qualify for the national merit semifinalist, but do you think there’s a chance I could be commended? Thanks!
Sasa,
I think you have a very good chance of being a Commended Student — maybe 75-80%. Based on the number of top scores we have seen this year, it’s more likely that the cutoff will be at 208 or 209 than 210.
Sasa,
I forgot to answer the other part of your question. The Selection Index gives double the weight to the Reading and Writing score. This means that students with the same Total Score can have different indexes. For example, doing the math tells me that you got 730 RW and 630 M — 73×2 + 63 = 209. If you had done the opposite and received 630 RW and 730 M, your SI would have been only 199 — 63×2 + 73.
That makes a lot more sense. Thank you so much!
Hi Art,
My son got SI 215 in Missouri. what are the odds of jumping to 216 vs staying 214 or 215?
I noticed that there are more semi finalists than commended. was wondering how is it possible.
TIA.
Josh,
I think there is a 65-70% chance that a 215 will be sufficient. As is the case with most states, the scary examples are the classes of 2018 – 2020 where the cutoff hit 217 in Missouri. I don’t think we are going to see that level of increase, but it is likely to go up from last year’s 214.
The closer a state’s cutoff is to the Commended cutoff, the lower the ratio of Commended students to Semifinalists. In fact, some states, such as West Virginia, have no Commended students, because all recognized students become Semifinalists (a state’s cutoff can never go lower than the national Commended figure). At the other extreme, NJ will see 6-7x the number of Commended students as Semifinalists. For Missouri’s class of 2024, everyone with scores between 214 and 228 was a Semifinalist. Everyone between 207 and 213 was Commended. There were about the same number of students in each group.
What are the chances that a 216 qualifies for Indiana?
Meenu,
I think it’s going to be very close — as in 50/50. In the two classes I think of as analogues given the national numbers — 2017 and 2021 — Indiana had cutoffs of 217 and 215. We’ve seen it go higher than that only when we had far more 1400-1520 students than we have this year.
Hello Art! My son received a 221 for his selection index score. We live in Pennsylvania. He is hoping to be a semifinalist, but is cautious due to the change in test format and with an increased number of higher scorers. Your article and charts have helped a great deal explaining the scores as well as the process. Thank you!
PAMom,
I respect your son’s caution — some students prefer that when making the long wait until September. Between you and me…I don’t see PA going to 222. Good luck!