Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Art,
What are the chances with a score of 219 in Indiana in your opinion? And, as far as the SAT 1500 (710/790) for one test. Superstore doesn’t matter, correct? Will this make it as a finalist?
Minmi,
With some of the high reports coming in, I’m hesitant to make claims about chances right now. I can say that your score is well above what is needed as a confirming score for the Finalist stage. No superscoring for National Merit.
Art, your prediction. for Missouri’s most likely cutoff was 216 with a range of 214-218. Do you still think this will hold true given Florida’s 2 point jump? My daughter is sitting exactly at 216 and we are anxiously hoping for good news!
Karen,
If the California reports are accurate, then the Florida number takes on even more importance. Still, the information is very thin. I’ll keep everyone abreast of what I know. I suspect that Missouri will stay within its range, but I can’t rule out 217/218. Good luck to your daughter!
The two point cutoff jump for FL has me a little nervous about the cutoff score for SC. Any change in your predicted cutoff score for SC? Hoping it remains at 214 or doesn’t increase past 215.
Kimberly,
“A little nervous” is fair, since that’s how South Carolina’s cutoff always makes me feel. It is a notorious bouncer. I don’t have any new information for you, just positive thoughts!
Prediction that any chance that any state will have a 225 index this year?
Samantha,
I’m sticking to the position I have held for years now: we will never see a 225 cutoff under the current scoring structure.
For Texas, how certain can I be that a 223 selection index and 1430 SAT (760V, 670M) will qualify for NMF? I’m holding off on submitting applications until confirmed. When can I submit as “officially” a National Merit Semifinalist?
Katie,
Your 223 will qualify you as a Semifinalist in Texas. Since you haven’t been notified by your school yet and the Texas cutoff has not been announced, I would hold off on saying “officially” until September 10th. If there is a strong reason to apply before that, you’ll have to decide your risk tolerance. I’ll say that there is no chance that TX would go to 224, but you can’t cite me as an official. 😉
Your SAT scores would give you an SI of 219. I expect the confirming score cutoff to be set at the Commended level of 210.
I’m a U.S. Citizen studying abroad, and I’m quite confused about the NMSQT. I got a 224 index and I have no idea if I qualify or how I’ll be notified. Will 224 suffice for studying abroad?
Haine,
The Studying Abroad cutoff will be set at the highest state cutoff, so you’ll want to keep your eye on states such as NJ and MA. Or, you can believe what I have been saying for years that a 225 cutoff will never happen under the current scoring.
Hi Art,
I was wondering what you think the chances of New York going up to 221 were.
Thank you!
Jay,
When we’ve had “up” years with the Commended cutoff above 210, NY has hit 221. When we’ve had years below 210, NY has been at 219 or 220. We’ve never had a year – until now — where the Commended was exactly 210. Florida at 219 shifts the needle just a little bit. I’m going to wait for more info before setting odds.
Do you think a 220 in Michigan will make Semifinalist? Also, will the student receive an email before they are notified by the school? I have a feeling our school is going to wait until after Sept. 10. Thanks in advance!
Erick,
I wish that NMSC would look at the calendar and realize that this is 2025 and not 1995. Delivering notifications by U.S. Mail to high schools is not the best way to handle things. Alas, students do not receive direct notification until the Finalist stage of the process. After the September 10 press announcement, NMSC will usually respond to polite telephone inquiries on status.
Michigan’s cutoff would need to jump 2 points above its historical high. I don’t see that happening.
Is the California made official at 222? I saw the update. Is this accurate?
Mel,
A student with a 222 apparently posted on Reddit that they did not make Semifinalist. My understanding is that they also deleted that post. I don’t have enough information to assess its accuracy. I am not prepared to make any definitive statements about CA’s cutoff.
Hello,
What are your thoughts about 220 in PA?
Thank you!
Ana,
I’m going to quote an answer I just posted to the same question from another student:
“I’m hesitant to put exact odds on things at this point in the process. I’d rather look at data points and let people make their own calls until we get more solid information. Pennsylvania’s cutoff has never hit 221. Will there be some new records this year? Probably at least several. The states where that is least likely — but not impossible — are larger states such as PA.”
Hi, what is the likelihood of becoming a nmsqt semifinalist in PA with an index of 220?
AJ,
I’m hesitant to put exact odds on things at this point in the process. I’d rather look at data points and let people make their own calls until we get more solid information. Pennsylvania’s cutoff has never hit 221. Will there be some new records this year? Probably at least several. The states where that is least likely — but not impossible — are larger states such as PA.
What do you think about my chances at a 213 in Arkansas? I know it is the most likely, but Florida being higher makes me a little nervous. Thanks!
Barrett,
I’d still choose 213 as my most likely (and that would be up 3 points from last year!), but it’s true that we still have a chance of a higher score.
This page states that the California cutoff is above 222, so I’m a bit concerned for qualifying as a 222.
James,
That information comes from a single Reddit post that I understand has now been deleted. I don’t know if it is true or false, but I am not yet putting much stock in it.
My kid’s school in California gave papers to the students who qualified NMSF. My child was 222 and didn’t make it. Assuming California cut off for Class of 2026 is 223.
Thank you for sharing, EJ!
Do you have any information about Virginia? Do you still think it would be 222?
Nothing about VA, but the Florida, Texas, and California reports are concerning.
Do we think there’s any chance of 218 qualifying in NC with the trends looking upwards in so many other states?
Julie,
Do I think that we will see states where the cutoff only increases by 1 point? Yes, I do. Based on the limited amount of information we’ve received so far, it does seem like the odds of a 219/220 cutoff have risen a bit. Stay positive! Good luck!
Hi Art, Been trying to get your inputs on AZ with score of 219. Appreciate any insights from you !! Thanks.
Raj,
With things in a state of flux, I’m cautious about giving odds. A 3-point move (to 220) would normally be considered a large jump, but based on the very limited amount of reliable info we have received so far, this year is shaping up to be extremely competitive.
How do you know Florida’s cutoff is 2019?
A highly reliable source.
Any news of the qualifying score in North Carolina? Thanks!
Ishaan,
There is the report on Reddit of a student qualifying with a 220. That only tells us that the cutoff is no higher than 220.
How does a 222 in Texas look? Your prediction is 219-221 but with Florida’s 2-point jump, I’m a bit concerned…..
Lav,
I feel very good about your (or your student’s) chances. Florida fell within its historical range. Texas has never hit 222, let alone 223. It’s cutoff would have to go up 4 points. In 10 years (500 state-years), that has only happened 6 times, and always in small states.
It looks like this is the year! For 222 in TX anyway….hopefully not higher. Fingers crossed!
It does! The information I have that a 222 qualifies is highly reliable. I’m waiting to confirm 100% that the cutoff is not below 222.
School counselor confirmed 222 made it in TX!
That’s the info I got, as well. Thanks, Lav!
Can’t tell you definitively – but only three students in the school made it and I know for a fact at least two of them are at 222. The third has a 1480 score, which could be a 220 or a 222 depending on how the split went. So, I’d say its looking like 222 is the cutoff.
Hi Art, thank you again for all your insights. It looks as though the cutoffs for the three states you know of are coming in at the high end of your predicted range. Are you seeing any evidence that cutoffs are coming in above the high end of your ranges? This is such a nerve wracking year!
Betty,
The evidence you see is the evidence I have. It’s possible that we are going to see things trend on the high side of my my “most likely” projections. So far I don’t see anything that indicates a large number of states breaking through those ranges. I base my projections on historical performance and national numbers. In most years, there are a few surprises. Let’s hope it stays at a few.
Hi Art,
Thanks as always for your thoughts and reporting. As you know, there are lots of folks out there on the edge of their seat!
I haven’t really been seeing any chatter about Virginia, where my child has a 223. Have you been hearing any rumblings about that state that give you a sense of if it might move north of that to 224 (which would be a 2 point jump)?
Kay,
I’m certainly on the edge of mine! I don’t have any reports from Virginia yet. A 224 would require (a) a state to finally hit 224 and (b) Virginia to blow past its historical high by 2 points. I think (b) is even more encouraging than (a).
Hi Art. With states seemingly being competitive this year, do you anticipate that we could see any cutoffs at 225?
Dylan,
No.
This time of year is always nerve-racking, especially when early scores are high. But let’s review what we’ve seen: Florida has moved to a score it has been at a number of times. California may have returned to its peak score. Illinois may have done the same. To date, we don’t have any states moving in an unprecedented fashion. We have never seen a 224 cutoff (Maryland’s COVID-related cutoff does not count). I think a 224 cutoff will eventually happen. I’m not even ruling it out for this year. A 225 never will happen. Scores at the top end become increasingly rare, and they simply don’t account for enough students to fill an NMSF slate. We’d have to see a major breakdown in scoring, and even College Board has never made a mistake that large.
That Florida score. With all other scores so slippery this year, I’m just feeling the need to ask…are you positive? (The internet is going bonkers.)
Bits,
It’s from an extremely reliable source. Bonkers is never my intent.
Hello, I have a 220 index as a Texas student. What do you think the chances are of me being a semifinalist? Thank you!
Grant,
I’m getting reports that Texas’ cutoff has moved to 222. I’m trying to get the information nailed down, because it would be big news.
Any chance the MA comes down to a 222?
Sagarika,
We’ve twice seen Florida at 219 and MA at 222, so I think there is at least a chance. I’ll admit that the CA reports give me pause. Let’s stick with there is a chance.