Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Any news on Arizona?
There was a post on Reddit that a 218 qualified. No further word.
Hi Art, any updates on score range for Oregon? thanks for all that you do keeping us all posted 🙂
Ely,
I received word of a 221 qualifying and a 218 not qualifying. That narrows things down a bit.
Is a 2015 still safe for Arkansas? I am a bit worried with some other states going up quite a bit… Thank you!
Olivia,
As you are probably seeing, it’s difficult to assess things as “safe” this year. A 220 in Arkansas is safe. I’d call a 215 “strong,” as it is at least at the state’s record high. Good luck!
Hi! Any news on the cutoff in Massachusetts? My daughter is at a 224 and wondering if she made it. She has not (yet) been notified by the school. Thanks!
Nisa,
No news on MA, but I’m trying to nail down some information I just received about NJ that throws the world into disarray.
What???? Are they seeing 225? My son is 224 in NJ
That’s correct. Maybe it’s wrong, but it is from a highly credible source.
Any news on Washington State
No news, Shiv.
Hi Art, what a crazy year! Thank you for answering all our questions. Could you please clarify your comment that NMSC seems to be sending out less information to schools. Did NMSC send out the cutoff index scores in previous years and have discontinued that practice this year?
Yes, that appears to be the case.
So based on your latest update, they’re not sending all schools the complete list of state cutoffs? Hopefully they still show up on the website on Wednesday…
Does this mean that National Merit is also not sending schools the complete national list of names? Compiling that list is extremely important to me every year, and if it is no longer being sent to schools then there is no realistic chance we’ll be able to get every state.
Correct.
It’s possible that NMSC plans on following up with that information later.
So they’re not even sending the complete list of names???
For an individual school, yes. State or National…tbd.
Mr. Sawyer,
How sure are you that the TN cutoff is 219? My friend and I are both at 219 and are skibidi nervous.
Thanks!
Frank,
So far it has only been mentioned on a Reddit post. I wouldn’t call it 100% by any means. Let me know when you get word, please!
Hi Art,
Any thoughts on Nevada based on where cutoffs are trending so far? It’s a smaller state, so I understand it’s subject to more fluctuation.
Tori,
The cutoffs coming in are so unusual that I am not going to pretend to know where NV will end up. We are seeing records being smashed. Good luck!
AZ is reporting 218 as cutoff based on the post on Reddit.
Thanks, Raj. I have it only as a student qualifying at 218 rather than a confirmed cutoff of 218. Is that your understanding, too?
Any info on Maryland yet? We’re sitting on a 222 and are very nervous!
I get it! I think everyone is pretty nervous right now, including me.
In addition to the 215 from Alabama reported here, there were recent Reddit reports of 222 in Illinois and 218 in Arizona qualifying. Earlier this week there were reports of 216 in Louisiana and 222 in New York on Reddit. It would be great if those could be added to your list!
George,
The site should now be current. I’m juggling a lot of things this time of year, so I always appreciate extra sets of eyes!
Hi Art,
In previous comments you’ve stated that a 221 would likely make semifinalist in NY since NY has never hit 222, but that was before Texas was revealed to be 222. How are things looking now? 222 Texas is also the record for Texas and a multiple point jump. Thank you for your help.
Janet,
Based on what I just found out about NJ (and combined with the CA and Florida numbers), I think all bets are off. This year is not like the others. I’m shifting entirely into data gathering mode, because I don’t feel comfortable making predictions in such a topsy-turvy year. I hope we can figure out NY soon.
Hello Art,
Is NJ at 225 ? Please let us know what you are hearing. My daughter is at 224.
Thank You
Jason
Danny,
The information comes from a knowledgable source and is based on students qualifying and not qualifying.
Thanks Art. That’s scary. We were thinking 225 would never happen.
Danny
Yes, College Board’s Bluebook (black box) spit out some whacky scores.
I believe the cutoff in Mass is a 225.
Thank you, Sophie. Do you have more details? If you reply and ask me to keep the information confidential, I’m happy to do it.
Thank you, again!
Not 100% sure about this but I am for the most part sure that I didn’t qualify with a 223 in CA
SD,
I am sorry to hear that, and I very much appreciate your sharing! Did you not receive a letter and your classmates did?
Hello, Art:
I am wondering if you have received more information about the cutoffs at CA. Based on SD, it seemed that SD is not qualified although SD’s had 223. Or was SD just assuming?
Hi Art,
I believe it was something like that. The reason that I said that I wasn’t 100% confident is because a lot of people in my school are super gatekeep-y, and so I’ve only overheard bits and pieces of information, but nothing I could’ve actually confirmed. Sad to hear that CA has been confirmed at a 224 now though 🙁
Yes, the gatekeep-y thing can be an issue, which is why I’m always a bit leery regarding friend reports. The 224 now comes from a trusted source. Thank you for the clarification.
Do you have any information from Georgia, even if not confirmed? I have scoured Reddit and every other source imaginable but can’t find a peep. My daughter’s at 219, which would have been high enough for 7 of the last 10 years. Last year was 218. There has only been a +2 point jump once (between 2013 and 2014). Finger’s crossed, but not looking good with all the +2 and +3 for other states vs. last year. Thanks for your work.
BKA,
Nothing from Georgia. I’ve been erring on the side of passing things along and adding qualifications as needed. I don’t know what to think about this year. It’s impossible to predict numbers that are unprecedented. Best of luck to your daughter!
Are the numbers pretty solid for the states you have reported ?
We have a student with a 118 for OR.
Looks like that will no longer cut it…. Trying to decide if we need to make peace with it or if this is still grey enough to keep hope? ?
The Oregon report comes from a student with a friend missing the cut at 218. Reports are usually accurate, although I place a bit less weight on friend reports (there is a higher chance of miscommunication). A few more days of hope couldn’t hurt!
I saw your update about the OR cutoff being possibly 222. That would be 6 points over the 2025 cutoff of 216! Would that be the biggest jump of any state?
Betty,
We only know that a student with 222 definitely qualified, so the cutoff could be lower. Oregon is interesting. For a few years it looked like it had joined the top scoring states in the 220s. Then it fell back to 216.
How was Texas confirmed? My daughter has a 222 and has not heard anything yet. Does this just mean the school has not informed her yet?
VD,
So far, we have had word from a student and a school. My guess is that only a quarter of students have been notified at this point. Materials arrive at different times, and some schools will choose to wait until September 10th (or later!).
VA is definitely =<224, got with 224
Congratulations, Justin! Thank you for passing that along.
Any updates for Utah. My so n has a 216 (which is the high end of the estimated range). School won’t inform students until next week.
Joy,
Nothing from Utah yet. As you are probably reading, the cutoffs are coming in unusually high. Even absurdly high.
216 made the cut in Utah!
Congratulations!
Are the states in bold confirmed by a school? Specifically OK.
Thank you!
KR,
No, the bold indicates that I believe them to have been narrowed down to the cutoff.
How are there conflicting reports for New York? Are both sources credible?
Alan,
I just got clarification on the 223 report. The counselor confirmed that the student qualified at 223, not that the cutoff WAS 223. Moving this back to <=222.
I am not sure of semifinalists but they will have to send boat load of commended certificates this year since there is wide gap .Disappointing but it’s an interesting year for sure.
It must mean that the high scores are more stretched out over the right of the curve. The number of Commended Students and NMSFs are effectively constant. For some reason, high scoring students were better able to achieve 218-228 scores than in the past.
Art,
Thank you for being the GOAT of NMS discussion. I’m from NC with a 220 so I’ll let you know when mine comes along. Wanted to ask, though, what are your thoughts on the sharp increases this year? What would you attribute it to? Obviously not everything’s in so this could be some sort of regional thing but it seems pretty crazy.
Oh, and before I forget, what portion of students would you estimate have received confirmation? Since this year is more hush-hush than normal.
Thanks!
Riley,
Ha! I’ll accept Commended Commentator.
I’d point to three factors, from possible to probable:
1) Diminished COVID-related learning loss. There may be some truth to this, but it certainly does not explain the scale of the change.
2) Increasing comfort with the digital PSAT. The class of 2026 took this test as sophomores. They’ve prepped for the digital P/SAT. They’ve had more materials and tests available for the digital P/SAT.
3) College Board did a poor job scaling the exam at the high end of the scale. This is an incredibly difficult task. In a limited number of problems — and a very limited number of problems difficult enough to challenge 215-228 students — you need to establish a consistent hierarchy from year-to-year. I’ve pointed out major gaffes in the past. These tend to be more visible on the PSAT than the SAT because test takers are so concentrated on specific forms/questions.
I would also argue that 2 and 3 could be related. When College Board moved from the paper-based test to the digital test, it did a number of linking studies. It maintains that the scores are essentially interchangeable. But those studies were done in an environment where students had familiarity with the paper P/SAT and no familiarity with the digital exam. If it turns out that the digital exam provided a more coachable experience, then we’d see more high scores over time. “But wouldn’t this mean higher scores across the board?” You would think so. There is an argument that NM-level students are more likely to prepare for the PSAT and improve performance over time. If this theory is true, we’d see more high SAT scores, as well. College Board obscures that data by only reporting percentiles and only reporting them based on the three trailing class years.
My guess is about 1/4 – 1/3. I’d estimate that half of schools wait until September 10th. And many schools are still waiting for the mail to arrive or to filter down to the counseling department. Unless you know that your school has distributed letters or you missed out based on confirmed cutoffs, you should not take non-notification as confirmation of non-qualification.
Good luck, and thank you in advance for following up!