National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2027

Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.

For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.

National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.

Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.

Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.

Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.

On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.

The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.

On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.

Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes.  The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.

We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.


State
Class of 2027
(Most Likely)
Class of 2027
(Est. Range)
Class of 2026
(Actual)
Class of 2025
(Actual)
Class of 2024
(Actual)

Avg NMSFs
Alabama213210 - 216214212210250
Alaska214210 - 21621521420935
Arizona218215 - 220218217216398
Arkansas213210 - 216215213210143
California223220 - 2242242212212,115
Colorado218216 - 221219218216286
Connecticut222220 - 223223221221175
Delaware219218 - 22122021921944
Florida217216 - 220219217216999
Georgia219217 - 221220218217602
Hawaii218215 - 22021921721762
Idaho214211 - 21721521321196
Illinois220218 - 222222220219704
Indiana217214 - 219218217216313
Iowa213211 - 216214212210145
Kansas216213 - 219216215214144
Kentucky214211 - 217214213211201
Louisiana215212 - 218216214214222
Maine215212 - 21721721421355
Maryland223221 - 225224222221308
Massachusetts223221 - 225225223222318
Michigan219216 - 220220218217485
Minnesota218216 - 220219217216279
Mississippi213210 - 215213212209155
Missouri216213 - 218217215214289
Montana211208 - 21421320920947
Nebraska213210 - 216214211210105
Nevada214211 - 217214214211168
New Hampshire217214 - 21921921721560
New Jersey223222 - 225225223223451
New Mexico211208 - 214210211207104
New York221219 - 2232232202201,012
North Carolina219216 - 221220218217510
North Dakota210207 - 21221021020730
Ohio218215 - 220219217216538
Oklahoma212208 - 214212211208204
Oregon218215 - 220219216216188
Pennsylvania220217 - 222221219219596
Rhode Island217214 - 22021921721547
South Carolina214210 - 217215214209236
South Dakota210207 - 21321120820942
Tennessee218215 - 219219217217319
Texas221218 - 2222222192191,623
Utah212210 - 216213211209196
Vermont215211 - 21721621521228
Virginia222220 - 224224222219437
Washington222220 - 224224222220348
West Virginia209207 - 21221020920764
Wisconsin214213 - 217215214213292
Wyoming209207 - 21221020920724
District of Columbia223222 - 22522522322336
Territories209207 - 21121020820739
Outside US223222 - 22522522322386
Commended209207 - 210210208207

How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.

We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.

Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

5,071 Comments

  • Augustus says:

    With the potential record breaking numbers coming in from some of the largest states, how is the commended score not higher? Does this imply larger states shifted up but smaller states held steady or shifted down ?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Augustus,
      Excellent question. We will likely never know exactly, because the details are not released. The large states drive the bus when it comes to the Commended cutoff. California alone claims approximately 8,000 of the Commended/NMSF spots because of the combination of its size and high scores! That’s about 100x the number in West Virgina.

      What I think is going on is that College Board muffed the scaling at the high end of the curve. So the number of NJ students, for example, above 210 might be about the same, but the number of students at 225-228 increased and filled the approximately 450 slots available to NJ students. Although people often assume that scores follow a normal distribution, they do not. We will get some information when NMSC releases the report on Semifinalists and Commended Students. We’ll see the number of Commended Students in each state, so it will give us a count of how many students (Commended + NMSF) scored at or above 210.

      At this point, I would not be surprised to see 45-50 states see higher cutoffs.

      • Augustus says:

        Thank you for explaining. That does make sense and maybe aligns to the crazy Reddit post on the international cut of being 226. I guess an extreme number scored prefect or near perfect . That would be crazy that all records are broken this year .

  • A ho says:

    no new news from me but i wanted to say that this is insane! i got 224 in tx, but a jump from 219 to 222 is crazy. definitely wasnt expecting 225 anywhere either. desmos destroyed the credibility of the SAT in general

  • Cole says:

    218 is semifinalist for MO

  • ZW says:

    im in uni but my siblings and friends are study abroad, here are their results:

    brother – 226 – SF
    sister – 225 – commended
    friend 1 – 224 – commended
    friend 2 – 228 – SF
    friend 3 – 226 – SF

    insanity.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      ZW,
      First, what a talented group!

      Second, INSANITY.

      Are you 100% sure of both your sister’s score and her status? And there is no chance that her school had her listed as the wrong year? I’ll have to go back over the information for the top states and see if I mistakenly assumed that a 224 non-qualification meant a 225 cutoff. Because I’m drawing a blank on who pushed the cutoff to 226. It wasn’t California. Seems like it had to be MA or NJ. VA? I suppose there is the remote chance that NMSC decided to change how it would set the Study Abroad cutoffs, but that is very, very remote.

      • anonymous says:

        Hi Art, I believe this comment is false… the person from Reddit framed their post exactly like this comment, but the people and the scores are wildly different. I don’t think two DIFFERENT people would post with the exact same # of siblings + friends and formatted in the same way. Here’s the link + pasted below the text of the Reddit post in case they edit it.
        https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/1n9lue4/study_abroad_results_god_help_us_all/

        brother – 225 and COMMENDED

        sister – 226 and SEMIFINALIST

        friend 1 – 225 and COMMENDED

        friend 2 – 224 and COMMENDED

        friend 3 – 227 and SEMIFINALIST

        younger siblings + friends are co26, i got the last chopper out of nmsland apparently

  • anonymous says:

    hi apparently the study abroad results are out and a state has reached 226.

  • Shreyas says:

    Do we have any info about DC? I don’t know if DC would count towards the studying abroad, but if so, I’m thinking DC might be the one with a 226, since I’ve seen people in NJ and MA get semifinalist with 225.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Shreyas,
      DC falls into the same category as USSSA (or did). It is a selection unit rather than a state and cannot be higher than the highest state cutoff. Perhaps NMSC decided to change the definitions.

  • anonymous says:

    Not sure if this narrows it down much, but I got a semifinalist letter as a 223 in Georgia. I saw a previous comment mentioning this, but according to the documents provided in the portal, the list of student names and high schools will be made public on 9/10. Perhaps they will provide more clarity about cutoff scores on this date as well.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Congratulations! There are at least a few students who will rest easier with 223s in GA.

      Yes, some years NM releases the cutoffs around the press release date and some years it does not. They seem to be playing more coy than usual this year.

  • kk says:

    Hello! Thank you for your hard work compiling this information. I was wondering for CA, is it guaranteed for an index 224 to qualify as semi finalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Guaranteed might be a bit strong, but I’ve received word from a Compass parent that 224 qualified. All students at or above the cutoff qualify, so 224 would be NMSF.

  • MV says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,
    Have you gotten any info about Michigan? I feel like I’ve seen nothing but crickets *insert nervous laughter here*…

  • Lillian says:

    Anything for a 223 in va?

  • Dan says:

    Hi Art,
    Is a 221 in NY not likely to be semifinalist?

  • Emme says:

    216 is semifinalist for Iowa

  • Luni says:

    Any credible news about NY cutoff

  • ava says:

    dc student and i got semi finalist with a 226. friend of mine got 225 and he’s not telling whether he got it, so the rumors might be true.

  • Anonymous says:

    Any word at all about PA? Could that be the 226 state?

  • Niki says:

    Hi Art,

    I’m a student from Kansas and I got a 218. Do you think it’s very likely that the score will rise to 219 or higher based on the highs of the other states? Has there been any news from Kansas? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Niki,
      We’ve certainly seen some unlikely increases. I’d take comfort in a state such as Oklahoma, that saw a higher cutoff without approaching its previous records.

  • Anonymous says:

    Hi Art—I’m in NJ. My son missed with a 223. With the jump to 225, I’m trying to understand whether AI/adaptive prep platforms inflated the very top of the distribution or whether NJ simply had a stronger cohort. Do you have any data (even school-level proxies) comparing adaptive/AI prep users vs. traditional prep—and any signals on equity (access/affluence) tied to this tail thickening? Pointers to posts or datasets appreciated—thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Anonymous,
      The data sets to test those theories would need to be very large and well structured, and those simply don’t exist. Based on prior instances of wide-scale score shifts, I think the culprit is test scaling rather than a stronger or better prepared cohort. It takes only small errors for a 740 ERW to become a 750 ERW (both are rounded values) and a 223 to become a 225, for instance.

  • Newman says:

    Hello, Art:

    Do you have any updates about the cutoff of CA? Previously, you stated that some students in CA with 224 had confirmed status of semifinalist. Do you think that cutoff will be at 224 or 223?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Newman,
      No updates. I simply don’t have enough data on how scores are landing to choose between 223 and 224. The optimistic view would be that FL/NJ/MA went up 2 points from last year, and that would put CA at 223. The less optimistic view is that NJ/MA set new records, and a 224 would do that in CA. I’m hoping for 223.

      • Newman says:

        Based on the historical data, going up by 3 points from the prior year was not usual or exceedingly rare in a “large state” like CA (or has it even happened before in “a large state”?) . This time, TX has gone up by 3 points. Do you think that TX is a “large state” in terms of numbers graduates? I hope that this year CA does not go up by 3 points.

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Newman,
          The only historical example I have of a large state moving up 3 points is when Michigan did it with the class of 2018. But that had the clearly contributing factor of Michigan moving from the ACT to SAT. So the change in Texas is unusual, to say the least. Texas is the second largest state in graduates and NMSFs, so it definitely qualifies as large. Good luck in Cali!

  • DS says:

    Hi Art, do you think a 224 in MA still have a chance?

  • Ben says:

    Hi Art,
    Is 224 no longer good enough for DC?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Ben,
      Based on NJ/MA and what I’ve heard from a DC student, it looks like 224 will fall short this year. Class of 2026 is not messing around. Have a great senior year!

  • Anonymous says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,
    I just wanted to say thank you for helping us along this journey. I didn’t qualify with a 220 in Texas but this was certainly an …. unforgettable experience, for lack of a better description. Really appreciate you making all these in depth posts and lending some sanity to this insane NMSQT cycle.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Anonymous,
      Posts like this mean a lot to me. The NM community is a joy to work with. I hope you appreciate how well you did on the PSAT, and I wish you the best as you make your way through application season!

  • JV says:

    Curious where your intel on MA came from? If you can share generalities.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      JV,
      A student reported a 224 as not qualifying, and the information seems credible. I am updating my MA information to be “225 or 226” since the student did not know where the cutoff fell. I’ve now had a report from DC that a 225 did not qualify, so a 226 in DC is also looking credible. I wouldn’t call either of them confirmed.

  • Jimmy John Joe says:

    Do you think that a 218 has a chance in TN. Where did you hear the cutoff

  • Aidan says:

    This question may not be relevant on the data gathering side of things, but is it typical for some states to get news on semifinalists later than others? I see states like Illinois, New Jersey, California, and even Missouri getting at least ideas of the cutoff, while states like Arkansas, Nebraska, or Delaware are being left in the dark.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Aidan,
      It’s mostly about size and luck. California alone has 7x the number of Semifinalists as Arkansas, Nebraska, and Delaware combined. It’s luck in the sense that only a small percentage of students receive notice and then decide to share their happiness or heartbreak online. We’re very fortunate to have those students. Good luck!

  • BN says:

    Hi Art,
    Does this unexpected increase on National Merit cutoffs have any implications on how well the class of 2026 performed in the SAT in general? (SAT in class of 2026 vs. others? or paper vs. digital SAT/PSAT? ) Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      BN,
      My working hypothesis is that this is more about test scaling for the pool of problems used on the October PSAT than it is about a shift in performance level. I say that because we’ve seen the former scenario play out before. It will be trickier to pick up a shift in the highest SAT scores. First, College Board doesn’t summarize the class of 2026 performance until fall of 2026. Even then, it will do so only by large score ranges. Percentiles with class of 2026 scores won’t be updated until the 2026-2027 testing season, and it’s hard to decipher much when the top scores are all 99+. It’s an area of interest for me, though, so I am going to be creative in the coming months in trying to piece together what we know about the SAT.

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