*** We are crowdsourcing all of the Semifinalist cutoffs. If you receive word, please post in the Comments. ***
September 2: Idaho is now listed as <= 211 based on a new report (earlier listed as = 213). Illinois is confirmed at 218. Colorado added at <= 218. Report from a DC-area forum that a student qualified in VA with a 221. Georgia student qualified with a 217. A Washington student reported falling short with a 220. A Maryland student made Semifinalist with a 222, but 220 did not qualify. Kansas is <= 219. We now know that a 214 qualified in Missouri and a 216 qualified in South Carolina. A 220 qualified in Connecticut, as did a 222 in Massachusetts. Minnesota is now <= 215.
Alabama = 210
Arizona <= 215
Arkansas <= 212
California = 220
Colorado <= 218
Connecticut <= 220
Delaware <= 220
Florida = 216
Georgia <= 217
Idaho <= 211
Illinois = 218
Indiana <= 215 and >= 212
Iowa <= 213 and >= 210
Kansas <= 219
Kentucky <= 216
Louisiana <= 211
Maine <= 214
Maryland 221 or 222
Massachusetts <= 222
Michigan 215 or 216
Minnesota <= 215
Mississippi = 211 via Reddit (reports still welcome)
Missouri 213 or 214
Nebraska <= 217
Nevada = 211
New Jersey <= 224
New Mexico <= 209
New York = 220
Ohio = 216
Oklahoma = 210
Pennsylvania = 219
South Carolina <= 216
Tennessee = 214
Texas = 219
Virginia >= 219 and <= 221
Washington 221 or 222
Wisconsin 211 or 212
Key:
State <= 215 — A student at 215 qualified, but we don’t yet know the lowest qualifying score.
State >= 211 — A student at 210 did not qualify, so we know that the cutoff is higher.
State >=212 and <=214 — The qualifying score ranges from 212 to 214.
State = 213 — The combination of reports means that the qualifying score has been confirmed.
September 1: Pennsylvania’s cutoff is 219. New York is confirmed at 220. Michigan has been narrowed down to 215 or 216. Maryland is <= 223. Kentucky and Minnesota students have reported qualifying at 216. Iowa’s cutoff is between 210 and 213. Idaho added at <= 213.
August 31: Nevada’s cutoff is 211. Ohio’s cutoff is confirmed at 216; I’m still working on confirmation that it did not fall to 215. Students at 216 or above can now rest easy. Reports added for Connecticut and Nebraska.
The information for the states listed immediately below are based on the most recent reporting. Drops in both the confirmed and unconfirmed cutoffs have demonstrated the impact of the lower Reading & Writing scores that Compass flagged last November. We now expect most state cutoffs will fall 2 to 3 points, producing results similar to those in the classes of 2023 and 2024, when the Commended cutoff was only 207. In order to give guidance to students in states where reports are sparse or absent, Compass has updated its estimates in the table further down this page. The “Most Likely” figures in that table are estimates. We expect 45-50 states will fall within the updated projected ranges.
August 29 and 30: Some additional reports have allowed us to narrow things down in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia. We now know that New Mexico is <= 209.
August 28: Maine and Indiana have been narrowed down. Georgia updated to <= 218. That’s a big one for many students. Reports from Alabama, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina added. Alabama now confirmed at 210. A student with a 218 did not qualify in Pennsylvania. Reports from Indiana indicate a NMSF level of between 212 and 215. Maine is no higher than 214. Fixed my mistake on Michigan (remains <=218). Missouri has now dropped to <= 215.
August 27: Oklahoma confirmed at 210. Conflicting information on Ohio; moving it back to <=218 until more reports come in. Reports added from Alabama, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I received credible — but not perfect — information that a 215 did not qualify in Ohio. I’m going to move it back to the more certain <= 218. I’ve seen sufficient posts on 218 not qualifying in Texas that I am moving it to Texas = 219. Mixed information from Virginia, but the most credible report is that a 222 did qualify. Wisconsin has now moved to <= 212, which means the cutoff will be at a record low.
August 26: California drops to 220, Ohio to 215 (now in doubt), and Mississippi to 211. Reports added from Texas, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Georgia, and Washington.
The largest state in the country is now confirmed at 220, the lowest it has been since the class of 2023. Students and parents have reported lower class of 2027 cutoffs for Ohio and Mississippi. I always appreciate additional reports from students who qualify (or miss out).
August 25: Florida confirmed at 216. Tennessee record low of 214. Reports from Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Oklahoma.
Florida’s cutoff fell to 216, which is great news for students in large states and hoping for lower cutoffs. I received a report of two Oklahoma students qualifying at 210. This doesn’t confirm the final cutoff — it could be lower — but it is evidence that scores will be dropping this year. An Arizona student qualified at 216, and a New Jersey student qualified with 224. With Florida tying its record low, Tennessee setting a record low of 214, Louisiana at a record low (211 or less) and Arizona, Arkansas, and Oklahoma dropping, we need to look at comparable down years such as the Classes of 2021, 2023, and 2024. The huge drop in top RW scores has been a question mark since we first analyzed scores in November. Was the drop consistent at top scores? The answer appears to be, “Yes.”
August 24: The first score report!
Semifinalist packets are now arriving at high schools. It can be a slow process. The time from USPS to school to student can get stretched out. Also, National Merit asks schools not to make the information publicly available until an official announcement is made (likely on September 9th). While there is no prohibition against informing students themselves, many schools prefer to wait. Compass compiles information as students report news and will update this site consistently with the latest information. The first report is from a student in Florida qualifying with a 220.
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Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
Every year, Compass tracks the National Merit process from the PSAT in October of junior year through the announcement of Semifinalists in September of senior year. One of the most important insights comes in April with the reveal of the national Commended cutoff. Compass has confirmed that this year’s Commended level is 208, down from last year’s 210. There has never been a year when all 50 states see lower cutoffs, but this year may come close. The Class of 2026 saw record Semifinalist cutoffs in 21 states; this year, Compass projects none. Our Semifinalist estimates have been updated with the latest information.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Because Reading and Writing carries double weight, a student with balanced section scores can trail a student with a lower total. Sophomores and juniors preparing for the October PSAT can work on that imbalance directly in a National Merit-focused PSAT class. Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of each state. Compass expects this year’s cutoffs to range from 208 to 223.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
The first indication of a decline was the lower number of top scorers reported by College Board when PSAT results were released in November. College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. Only 52,400 students in the Class of 2027 earned scores in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range, down 16% from the previous year. That figure is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and is similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, the Commended cutoff was bound to decline. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
A big drop after last year’s record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why that is unlikely to happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states.
On the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Based on the results in the highest scoring states, we know that a record number of students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. For this reason, we don’t believe there will be a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
We anticipate that the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs will decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
| State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 210 | 210 - 212 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209 - 214 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 215 | 213 - 216 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 210 | 210 - 212 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 220 | 220 - 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216 - 219 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 217 - 220 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Florida | 216 | 216 - 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 218 | 217 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 216 | 214 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210 - 215 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 218 | 217 - 220 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 215 | 214 - 217 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 211 | 210 - 214 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 214 | 213 - 216 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210 - 214 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 211 | 211 - 213 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 214 | 211 - 215 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 221 | 220 - 223 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 216 | 215 - 218 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 215 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 210 - 212 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 214 | 213 - 216 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 209 | 208 - 212 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 211 | 209 - 213 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 211 | 210 - 212 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 220 | 219 - 221 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 217 | 216 - 219 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 216 | 215 - 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 209 - 211 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 216 | 215 - 218 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 220 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 212 | 209 - 215 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208 - 212 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 214 | 214 - 217 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 219 | 219 - 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 211 | 209 - 213 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 213 | 211 - 216 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 221 | 219 - 223 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 212 | 211 - 214 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 211 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| Territories | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
While the Commended cutoff is the same across the entire country, Semifinalists cutoffs vary by state. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school juniors, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
With a commended cutoff of 209, how confident would you be that 220 for CA qualifies for semifinalist?
Thanks!
KF,
I think a 209 tells us too little about the top of the range. I still believe that CA’s cutoff will move lower and I haven’t changed my Most Likely, but I don’t think I would go as far as to say that I am confident a 220 will qualify.
Thanks Art! Would you say it’s 50/50 odds or something higher?
That sounds right. Maybe 60/40 only because 219 can’t be completely ruled out.
Good morning…
My son has been anxiously awaiting these numbers…we live in Arkansas, and he scored a 212. We are over the moon with the prediction being a 212…do you feel that still is likely have him qualify? Thanks for all the info
Pamela.
The 209 was good news. With around 140 NMSFs, though, Arkansas’ cutoff can float around more than many others’. In the last 4 years, it has twice come in at 4 points above the Commended level and in the last two years it came in at 2 points above. Let’s hope it is no more than 3 points above Commended this year!
Hi Art,
My son has an SI of 221 in CA. Can you please tell me how certain this can qualify for semifinalist? With a percentage ratio?
Thanks!
Karpagam,
Because College Board releases a limited amount of information and does not break things down by state, I have to be cautious in predictions. For the class of 2017, there was a 209 Commended level and CA was at 222. I think this year is different. The high end of the scale was impacted, in my opinion, more than it was in 2017. I would put a 221 qualifying as 80/20 or even 90/10. The limited data I have seen coming out of schools simply doesn’t fit with a 222 cutoff.
Thank you Art! When is the earliest that we could find about the semi finalist status?
We’ve got quite the wait. NMSC usually mails out notifications to schools in late August. Word doesn’t start trickling in until about Labor Day.
My child has a index score of 195 and says falls in the 97% . Which is still good score don’t get me wrong. But sounds like from what I have read this score is not close to getting even Commended so why is my child still looks like they are in the running for this?
Lynn,
I don’t believe there are official percentiles for the Selection Index (if you are seeing one on the score report, I’d be interested in hearing more). You may be seeing the percentile on the overall score. On score reports, College Board emphasizes what it calls the “Nationally Representative” percentiles. It estimates what the percentiles would be if every student took the exam. The students who actually take the exam have a higher performance than the nationally representative sample, and the Commended cutoff is based on actual test takers. Also, if the percentile is based on your student’s total score, it may not reflect how the Selection Index gives twice the weight to the ERW score versus the Math score. Also, I’m assuming your student is a junior. If your child is a sophomore, then the scores are only being compared to other sophomores, and National Merit is not a concern until this October’s PSAT.
Hi Art, do you think a 217 in Florida will make the cutoff?
Ann,
The best answer I can provide is that it has a better than even chance of qualifying. The cutoff is almost certain to go down this year, but I don’t think 216, 217, or 218 are out of the mix. Obviously, only the 218 would be a problem. Unfortunately, we’ll be waiting until September to find out the correct answer.
Please disregard my previous reply. I was reading it incorrectly. I believe you are saying if it ends up being 218, that would be the problem. Correct?
Correct. I just meant that at a cutoff of 216 or 217, everyone scoring a 217 is happy.
Hi Art,
I’ve got four questions for you:
1) Thoughts on a 216 in Arizona?
2) How do colleges “know” PSAT scores, since I’ve gotten mail saying how well I did on the PSAT?
3) Are there any scholarships for a commended student?
4) How do you think Coronavirus will affect the National Merit timeline?
By the way, thank you for your insightful reports.
1) I think we will see some state cutoffs move down by 3 points, so 216 could happen in AZ.
2) College Board makes a lot of money selling lists to colleges (you checked a box to allow them). Colleges will buy up lists based on ranges. “I’d like all of the students in AZ, NV, and CA scoring above 1300 who mentioned an interest in engineering.” It’s a way for them to target their marketing.
3) I have run across a handful over the years, but I’m afraid that I can’t cite any.
4) Counselors are working remotely, but they are still working. So schools should be able to get NMSC the information it needs. I am hoping Semifinalist announcements stay on schedule. If SAT and ACT dates continue to get canceled, I could see a chance of SAT/ACT being dropped as a requirement at the Finalist stage. I don’t think it will come to that, but anything is possible at this point.
Hey Art,
In regards to your 4th point, what do you think could be the finalist requirement be in that case? GPA? Extracurricular?
Thanks,
PN
PN,
Academic performance (NMSC doesn’t specify GPA, and I don’t think it will) and a recommendation from the school have always been Finalist requirements, but I doubt that extracurriculars would be a factor at that stage — it’s too soft of a criterion. I’m very hopeful that SAT and ACT will be back in time, especially now that each has committed to remote proctored exams if schools continue to be closed in the fall.
Hi Art
Any conjecture on a 213 in Louisiana ? Thanks.
Olivia,
Louisiana ranges between 3-5 points above the Commended level. My “Most Likely” is in the middle of that range at 213. I think the odds are maybe a just better than even that a 213 will qualify.
Art,
220 in Kentucky. Looks good based on what I’m reading here. Can you reassure me?
Thanks,
Ari
Ari,
I can reassure you. Kentucky has never been close to a 220 cutoff, and it certainly won’t be this year. Congratulations!
What do you think of chances for 219 in DC?
Thanks.
Amy,
It’s so tough for DC students, because the District ends up having the cutoff of the state with the highest cutoff. I don’t think we’ll see every state fall that much.
Thanks. That’s too bad. But this methodology seems to set a really high bar for dc students, especially the DC public school students (DC residents) who are competing against the kids from Maryland and VA attending DC’s fancy private schools/. I don’t think there are ever more than a handful of DC public school winners every year..
Amy, you’re absolutely right about why the DC cutoff is so high. While I don’t have data to prove it, I’ve heard that it would be even higher if it were not pegged to the highest state cutoff.
Hi Art, Our daughter has PSAT score of 220 from Texas . What are the chances of being a semifinalist?
Susan,
Her chances are quite good. Given all that we’ve seen, I think it is unlikely that many states see the same cutoff this year as last. I’d say at least 80-90% chance.
Hi Art – Thank you for all of the valuable work. Inane question, sparked by Corona-boredom, but: 222 in New York is >99% safe to qualify as a Semifinalist?
Thanks
I think we can go ahead and put that at 100%. Stay well.
Hi, my child scored a 211 index in Mississippi, what do you think his chances are?
bw,
I think we’ll see a number of state cutoffs fall by 3 points this year, although I do think that 2 point changes will be a bit more common. Mississippi has come in two points above the Commended level on several occasions, so a 211 is definitely in range.
Given the drop in commended cutoff from last year, what do you think are the odds for a 218 in Florida?
Josh,
I think we’re likely to see 80-90% of cutoffs go down this year. There is an excellent chance that Florida will be among them, especially since larger states are less likely to have out-of-the-ordinary bounces. So I like the odds of a 218 qualifying.
Got a 218 in florida. What do you think my chances are? How likely is it to drop from a 219 to 218?
Rohan,
I think we will see most cutoffs across the country dropping by at least 1 point. We can’t say with certainty that Florida’s cutoff will be 218 or lower, but I think there is an excellent chance.
I have a 219 index (in Washington state) so crossing my fingers that I qualify! Thanks for your very informative article, it helps to calm (some) of my nerves 🙂
Best of luck, Hanna!
Are the chances of a score of 220 making national merit semifinalist in virginia high?
Sri,
Virginia is always one of the most competitive states, but we will likely see its cutoff drop. I think there are roughly even odds that it will fall to 220 or 221.
hi
my child scored 222 in California – (class of 2021). what are her chances?
Dinesh,
Excellent. I will be dumbfounded if California comes in at 223.
Hello Art,
Now that the Commended Cutoff is known to be 209, is a 212 for AL likely out of the running for semi-finalist? Thank you for your insight.
Dawn,
While a 4-point drop would be unusual, this is an unusual year. I wouldn’t give up hope!
I have truly appreciated your posts and thoughtful responses to your readers! I had put NMS on the “back burner” after my junior son received a 217 index here in North Carolina. The information you posted about possible cut off numbers has certainly reenergized my research. I never would have considered a 2 point drop as a possibility! Wow.
Realizing that he is still very much on the bubble, I have a question relating to the semi-finalist to finalist stage. Can you shed light on the mysterious 1000 person drop that seems to happen outside of the application portal?
Thanks, again!
JSP,
NMSC does keep that a bit mysterious. The criteria are stated, but not with any level of certainty.
(1) Some students don’t bother applying. Yes, in some cases students are not concerned about reaching Finalist stage.
(2) Some students do not receive a recommendation from their school. Now is not the time to pull a prank on a principal.
(3) Some students do not earn a confirming score on the SAT or ACT. The score is not usually determined by this point, but will fall right around the Commended level (use the same formula to create an SAT Selection Index). See our FAQ for the more complicated explanation for ACT scores.
(4) Some students don’t have a transcript that supports their bid. This is the squishiest one. There is no GPA cutoff. C’s supposedly can be a problem. I have no idea what NMSC will do about all of the P/F grades this year.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
My son scored a 220 in Virginia, how would you place his odds of qualifying for national merit? I.e. do you believe 221 or 220 is more likely?
R.,
I would put them at even odds. We know that Virginia is likely to come within a point or two of the highest cutoff, but there is no certainty yet over where that top mark will fall.
Hi Art,
how likely is it that a 218 in Arizona will get me SemiFinalist?
Josh,
I think we’ll see 90% of cutoffs go down this year (100% is not out of the question!). So while we don’t have specific information on Arizona, I’d be optimistic with a 218. Good luck.
Do you think a 219 will be good enough for Semifinalist/Finalist in PA?
Also when they choose the Finalists out of the Semifinalists, if all other criteria is met, do they choose the highest scoring Semifinalists to become Finalists?
Jiangfeng,
Given what we know, I think it is unlikely that Pennsylvania’s cutoff will stay at 220.
No, scores are not a deciding factor. The Semifinalist to Finalist stage is about meeting the criteria.
Hi Art;
So nice of you to answer all these questions during these trying times. We originally thought my daughter missed the cutoff but do you think with a 220 in NY she will be a semi finalist?
DT,
A 220 is in a range where we can’t know for sure, but I do believe that most state cutoffs will see at least a 1-point decline. Your daughter’s chances are good. Stay safe.
Hi Art, thank you for writing this very informative article.
I got a 222 in Maryland this year, which is usually right on the border. Seeing how circumstances have changed, is it likely that this score will qualify?
Evan,
Everything I’ve seen points to falling scores this year, so I don’t see much chance of Maryland moving up to 223. You have an excellent chance of making NMSF.
Hello.
I got 222 in NJ, what do you think r my chances?
Also, if there are 10 kids in the grade that made the cutoff how the school choose? and for the distinct honor, what is the cutoff?
Thank you!
Ben,
I like your chances at 222. If any state sticks at 223, it will be NJ, so I can’t say that 222 is 100%. The number of high scoring students at your school does not impact NMSF selection. Even at the Finalist stage, there is no need for a school to favor one student over another — most like the bragging rights of having Finalists. The Commended Student cutoff is 209 this year.
Thanks so much for all the helpful info! My Son has a 220 in Texas and we are crossing fingers. How do you think COVID issues will affect National Merit this year? My son already has a qualifying SAT score but wondering if they will have to adapt that measure? Also with the test optional movement occurring – will this have any impact on national merit?
Gina,
If test dates keep being cancelled, NMSC will need to reevaluate the confirming score requirement. Students can earn that score as late as December, so there is still time. The great news is that your son doesn’t need to worry about that! The confirming score is only relevant during Finalist selection, so no adjustments will need to be made for NMSF. I don’t see COVID issues impacting National Merit that much this year (PSAT cancellations would dramatically change the landscape for next year’s class). Colleges that are already committed to sponsoring scholarships are unlikely to back out this year just because they have temporarily gone test optional. I don’t know if the economic fallout will mean fewer company sponsorships.
Has the commendation score for the class of 2021 been officially released? Is 209 the official commendation cut-off, or is that not confirmed until this Fall?
Hi Ashley,
College Board won’t release the Commended cutoff to the public until September. However, they provided some Commended notifications in April, and we have confirmed that 209 is the cutoff sore.