April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi, thanks for your insightful analysis! My son made 222 in California, are we certain he is going to make semifinalist?
John,
I’m firmly optimistic that he’ll make Semifinalist. I rate that as just below “confident,” which ranks just under “certain.” Even with this year’s weak scores, I can’t bring myself to take 223 off the table as a remote possibility.
Hi Art, I got 218 in New York state. Do you think there’s a possibility of making semi-final list? Thank you so much for the article and response.
SM,
While New York has had a 218 cutoff in the past, it’s been a decade since it happened. I did include the possibility in my estimated range, because (a) it has happened and (b) we are seeing a weak year. I’ll admit that the odds are fairly low.
Do you think 219 has a chance in New York?
MT,
While we don’t know that NY will have a low year, we do know that in other weak years New York has seen cutoffs of 220, 220, and 219. So, yes, I think 219 has a chance.
Hello!
I wanted to begin by thanking you very much for this thorough update. I, as well as many other anxious students and parents, so greatly appreciate it.
Now for my question: Do you anticipate CT’s rise to a 223 cutoff? I have scored a 222, which I know you have at the high end of your range, but still cannot help but feel nervous about a jump-up.
I would love to hear your thoughts and thank you in advance for providing them!
BN,
It sometimes feels that NMSC designed the process for maximum anxiety. The good news for you is that Connecticut has always finished just below the highest state cutoffs. If we were seeing a blockbuster year, I might feel differently, but I don’t see a 223 cutoff in Connecticut.
Hi Art,
Thank you so much for your time and patience writing such a great article and answering all of these questions!
My daughter received a 221 in CA. I know this is on the low end of the ‘bubble’, but I was wondering how virtual schooling might affect the CA numbers. Much of the state (including my daughter’s school) did the entire year at home.
Thanks again!
Christie,
Yes, it’s possible that we are seeing lower scores this year because of the challenging learning environment. Online learning was more prevalent in California than in most states, so the national numbers might not reflect our state. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to have enough visibility over state results to predict how things play out.
Hello Art,
Would a 1480 in Minnesota suffice for NMSQT?
Thanks!
Sincerely,
A student who doesn’t wish to disclose their identity
Anon,
A total score can convert into different Selection Indexes depending on the split between ERW and Math. A 740/740 would be a 222 SI, but a 720/760 would be a 220 SI. I think Minnesota will likely come in around 219, but no higher than 222.
Here in NJ. Am I calculating this right?- 1500 (750/750) so index of 225? Based on your estimates, son should meet the cut off, right?
Either way, so proud!
EJ,
You are correct on all 3 counts: 225, Semifinalist qualifier, proud parent.
What are the chances Delaware rises to 222?
Anon,
Small states always concern me, but Delaware has only risen to 222 once, and that was in a year when the Commended was 212.
What is your prediction for DC ? A repeat of last year ? Also wanted to confirm that the national numbers included all the states because some of them are being released today .Thank you for the wonderful blog – it is easiest one I have come across that has helped me understand this plethora of tests .
M,
The scores were available to counselors last week. It’s possible, of course, that more were added, although we’ve still got the 3% figure for the proportion of students getting 1400 or higher. It’s not a blockbuster year.
DC gets no say in the matter, since it’s tied to the highest state. I don’t think we’ll see another Alternate Entry meltdown, but I don’t know that for sure. I estimated a 223 because it’s possible that one of the top states will get there. It’s something of a toss-up between 222 and 223.
I’m glad we could help!
How safe do you think a 220 is in NC?
NW,
Very. North Carolina would need to set a new record and do it during a year when high scores seem in short supply. Not impossible, but I’d lay heavy odds against it.
Hi Art
My son has a 223 selection index. We are in NJ. He is in the most likely in your chart. Does he have a good shot at National merit?
SF,
He has an excellent shot. Even in up years we haven’t seen NY reach 224. I’m a little concerned about Alternate Entry based on Maryland’s experience last year, but it’s highly unlikely in NJ.
Art,
Thank you so much for your insight on the Merit Scholarship information. It has been very eye-opening and I have learned a lot. My daughter scored a 213 in Alabama. I noticed your prediction for the 2023 class is 214. Do you think she still has a chance? I really appreciate all that you do for parents and students.
Thank you for your time,
Sarah
Sarah,
I consider anyone within my estimate range to have a chance. Even a 211 is not out of the question, but I think 212-215 is even more likely.
Hi Art,
My Selection Index score on the PSAT is a 204. I received a 1390, and my score report says that I am 99th percentile. Is it likely that I will get commended due to this 99th percentile? My selection index is awfully low, but my percentile is making me think that I have a shot at commended. I’m also worried about the accuracy of my percentile, because a 1390 usually corresponds to the 96th percentile.
Thank you for all of your information on the National Merit Cutoffs!
LS,
The default percentiles on the College Board reports are “Nationally Representative.” That’s a strictly hypothetical number based on every student in the country — even those not going to college — taking the PSAT. More important, percentiles are based on the three prior years’ data rather than on the current year. For the purpose of predicting National Merit, they are terribly misleading. I’m afraid we won’t see a Commended level drop to 204.
Hi Mr. Art Sawyer,
I have a few questions in response to this post:
1. If there is another Alternate Entry situation, when would they likely announce it and what would you say is the likelihood of this occurring?
2. Would an SAT taken in October 2021 be acceptable as an alternate entry for the class of 2023?
3. Should I feel pretty confident in qualifying as a semifinalist with a PSAT score index of 223 in Maryland?
4. If there is another Alternate Entry mess in MD, would a 1550+ on SAT probably suffice to making the semifinalist cutoff?
Thanks so much, I really appreciate all of the help your resources have been providing me!
David,
1) I’m going to beg off answering this one. Predicting what NMSC decides is outside of my scope. I’m encouraged by the 1.5 million PSAT takers.
2) Yes, but not applicable if you have a PSAT score.
3) Yes. You probably know more than I do about how well Maryland schools were able to pull off the PSAT this year. I would imagine that there is a wide gulf between this year and last. I don’t see Maryland reaching 224 based on PSAT scores alone.
4) To clarify, if you have a PSAT score, Alternate Entry does not apply. The “mess” last year revolved around the sheer number of students who didn’t have PSAT scores.
Good luck!
Thank you so much for this tremendously helpful analysis. I see you have SC with a “most likely” of 215. If commended is 208, that would put SC’s semifinal cutoff at 7 points above commended which hasn’t happened at least since 2017. If commended turns out to be 209, then at 215 we’d be 6 points above commended which has happened 3 times in the past 6 years. We’re nervous but hopeful that 214 will be enough.
JB,
Nervous but hopeful describes about 90% of my readership (and fits me, too), so you and your student have company. Good luck!
Hi Art, your information is so helpful, thank you. My son scored a 217 in New York, so it sounds like he’ll just miss the semi-finalist cutoff, but is there any possibility that won;t qualify as a commended score? Thanks!
He is guaranteed to at least qualify as a Commended Student. His score will be well above any possible cutoff.
Hi,
Do you know the cut off for Kentucky?
Su,
Cutoffs do not become known until September. For now, all we can do is estimate them. Kentucky has seen wide swings in the past, so I estimate the range as between 212 and 218. A 215 or 216 has a good chance of qualifying this year, in my opinion.
Any real chance a 218 makes the semifinalist cutoff in Oregon?
Your range goes down to 217, with a likely of 220, but the >1400 percentile for this year seems to match the class of 2021 where Oregon then went to a 217 cutoff?
A L,
Yes. As you say, Oregon has had a 217 cutoff in a down year. The other classes with low numbers of high scorers saw Oregon at 219 and 220, but I think we need to discount that 220 because of Alternate Entry. National percentiles don’t always align with state numbers. If they did, I wouldn’t need to report ranges at all.
Hi Art,
We live in New York and my daughter has a 221 selection index, which you have as your most likely. Since this is an increase from the past 2 years actual, is it fairly conservative? Do you see any scenario in which NY goes to 222?
Thanks!
Hal,
Looks like you caught the table before I uploaded by correct version — the one developed in tandem with the Commended score analysis. Now that we think things look weak nationally, I’ve got my Most Likely at 220. In low-Commended years, New York has been at 219, 220, and 220. That’s no guarantee that it won’t go to 221. A move to 222 would require something extremely unusual to have happened. It’s been more than a decade since New York came within a point of New Jersey. It will likely fall into the group of states just below those with the highest cutoffs. Your daughter’s chances look good.
I got a 213 with a 1390, and I’m in New Mexico—do you think I have a chance to qualify as a semifinalist?
Marly,
New Mexico has seen a lot of movement over the years. Recently, a 213 would have qualified in 4 of the last 6 years. The two exceptions were in years where the Commended fell much higher than we expect it to come in this year. You’re in good shape, but close enough to where you’ll need to wait until September for any certainty.
Hi Art! Thanks for your well-reasoned analysis and predictions! My son has a 222 in Massachusetts, which I see is your predicted cutoff. How likely do you think it holds there/how are my son’s odds? Thanks again!
MT,
It’s hard to predict the top scores (and MA is usually #1 or #2). The weak numbers nationally make me think we are slightly more likely to see a 222 than a 223, but anyone claiming that they know which way it will end up is kidding themselves. We’ll all be watching things carefully come August.
My son got a 226 SI index in California. Is it likely that he will become finalist? Thanks.
lb,
It’s a lock for Semifinalist. Once that is announced in September, he’ll apply to be a Finalist (most students make it). For more information, see this pamphlet for the class of 2022.
Hi Art,
Thank you very much for your time and patience in writing such a great article and
answering all the questions!
My kid scored a 221. Do you think a 221 in Texas might make it to a Semifinalist?
Thanks in advance.
SM,
I think it’s very likely. I don’t see Texas moving up to a 222 in what looks to be shaping up as a low-scoring year for the PSAT.
Hey Art!
I just checked my score! How much of a chance is a 220 in Georgia looking at?
Thanks
James.
I don’t think we can say it’s a lock, but the probability of a large state hitting a record high in a “down” year is very low. I don’t think Georgia will go above 220.
Hi Art, thanks for your insight and helping us out here! My son received a 219 in Texas, I understand that its at the lower-end of the range and 220 is most likely. With 219 as cut-off for class of 2021, how likely is that 219 can happen again in Texas?
RS,
In what I’m calling the “low” years, Texas has come in at 219, 220, and 220. That falls in line with my thinking this year — maybe a higher chance of a 220 than a 219, but we can certainly see it come in at the lower figure.
Hello — I’m wondering how the “most likely” for the District of Columbia can be 223 when the highest for any other state is 222 (NJ/MA). I thought DC’s cutoff was the same as for the highest state. Thanks
Mary,
I was sort of hoping that someone would call me out on that. Here is my thinking: If I am a 222 student in Massachusetts, I just need my state not to stick below 223. If I’m a student with a 222 SI in DC, however, I need EVERY state to stay below 223. Four states have hit 223 in the past, and there is always the potential for a “Maryland surprise.” There is a good chance that a 222 will qualify in DC, but the 223 recognizes that pandemic-era testing is… interesting.