Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My daughter’s 213 qualified her to be a Semifinalist in Alabama.
Congratulations to your daughter, Anon!
Hello Art! You are to be commended for taking the time to update this page and to answer so many questions. Thank you!
Does anyone have more news on Indiana yet? Hoping a 216 makes it!
The report from the 215 qualifier is highly reliable. I think you are safe to celebrate!
I have a 216 in Indiana! Sounds like I should be expecting a notification, is that true? How long until I hear for sure? Thank you!
Michael,
Yes, you should be expecting a notification. The weird thing is that there is no guaranteed notification schedule or date. The notifications tend to pick up after Labor Day as counselors start returning. The letter from NMSC asks schools to not make the information “public” until the press embargo date that is likely to be September 14th this year. Many schools interpret it to mean that they shouldn’t even tell the students. I advocate that it only means that schools should not put the information in the school newspaper or make an announcement at an assembly until after that date.
Since you know that you have qualified, you can either just relax until your school notifies you (my recommendation), or you can follow up with your counselor. Do the latter politely, since you’ll need their support at the Finalist stage.
Art, thanks to you and Compass for being the best source of information for this national merit process.
Any word out of Louisiana? Our son has a 215 and we feel like we are on the bubble. Haven’t heard anything from his school yet.
Thanks!
One of my fellow Compass principals happened to be talking to a Louisiana counselor last night. I’m about to update the site with LA = 213. Congratulations!
My son made 212 (took the test @ freshman year), so in theory, he will qualify when retake the test in junior year. Right?
It would be highly unlikely that he’d drop between freshman and junior year. Good luck to him in October.
Pagination of comments is seemingly broken on this post – have your tech peeps take a look?
Friendly,
Yes, it’s a glitch in the WordPress theme that we use. A simply workaround is to right-click on Older Comments and open in a new tab. It will work after that (i.e. you don’t have to keep opening new tabs if you want to scroll back further).
219 qualified in Illinois! (Thanks Art for this service. It has been so helpful.)
Thank you, Steve!
Thank you for all of this! How certain is the 219 in Illinois? Our school principal said yesterday he had not yet received anything.
Certain.
Any news form the DMV area (DC, MD, VA)? My daughter has a SI = 220 (1590 SAT) and I am bracing for the worst. While I am happy for the semi-finalists with a lower SI from other states, it seems unfair that your state of residency determines whether you qualify for awards semifinalists are eligible for. I understand that this has been going on for a long time. Has this issue been addressed earlier?
Not yet, Anon.
The issue has been addressed probably 40 times over the last 8 years, but it’s a natural reaction. I try to stay neutral on the topic because it is what it is. NMSC would probably give high-minded reasons about how the distribution actually makes it a more national competition. I’d point to the very practical consideration: National Merit wouldn’t exist in its current form without the state cutoffs. National Merit depends on funding from sponsors. If those sponsors felt that most of the awards were going primarily to just a few states, then they wouldn’t be sponsors for long. Nor is this sort of structure unprecedented. Competitions as different as the Little League World Series and Rhodes Scholarships make regional decisions. Geography even comes into play in college admissions.
Your daughter’s 1590 (Congratulations!) will serve her well during the admission process no matter how things shake out in National Merit.
On a related note, why isn’t the raw score used? My daughter got a 1470, with a perfect math score, so 218. Had it been reversed and had she gotten a perfect verbal but also a 1470, she would have a 222 and would qualify. There are two math sections and two verbal. Seems like math oriented kids are unfairly hurt.
AB,
You are correct. It’s been a quirk of the program dating back at least 50 years. Even when there was just a Math score and a Verbal score (not separate reading and writing), NM doubled the verbal. It’s just how they’ve always done it, and I don’t see any chance of it changing.
My son had a 218 in PA. Are you certain that is the cutoff? Don’t want to celebrate too early!
100% certain. And I don’t use 100% lightly.
Are you as certain about the KS cutoff also? My son has 215 and not yet got informed from school but we are excited about the comments here.
UBT,
I’m fairly confident that the information is correct.
Any word on Virginia cutoffs? 221 right now and feel like I’m on the bubble.
Not yet, Em.
Same with my son. C’mon 221!
Is there news for Georgia, my daughter has a 218, which is one point lower than last year’s cut off.
Ginger,
Please check out Facebook page for some positive news! https://www.facebook.com/CompassTestPrep
Thanks Art and the Compass site, always so resourceful and helpful, no more nervous waiting, I appreciate the happy news!!!
Hi Art! I know it will be a while before we know for sure, but what do you think the chances are for a 222 at a northeast boarding school with cutoffs skewing low this year? Thanks!
As long as New Jersey doesn’t get lumped in, I think you are good. I doubt MA will hit 223 this year. NJ is a toss-up. [Boarding school cutoffs are set at the highest state cutoff within a region.]
Unfortunately, I think NJ is in the northeast boarding school region–it’s New England + Mid-Atlantic!
Thanks, Anon. I’m not in a place to research it.
Do you think 225 is safe in NJ? Thanks.
Absolutely!
Any news on CT?
Not yet, John.
Hi Art,
Given what you’ve been seeing/hearing, do you think your most likely prediction of 220 will hold for CT?
Thanks for all your valuable info!
John
There is not enough information yet to speculate on Connecticut. We’ll have to wait a little longer.
Ok. Thanks, Art.
Art,
A student from California posted on Reddit that he/she qualified at 219. My jaw dropped. Can this be true?
Meg, I don’t believe it is true.
really?? i was hoping it was.
There has to be SOME news on NY???? My daughter had a 226 but we are waiting on her best friend who has a 219. Ant thoughts?
For such a big state, New York always seems to lag in terms of updates. Congratulations to your daughter! I think a 219 has a good chance in NY given what we have seen so far.
Do you think that a 215 in Ohio will qualify?
Jon,
I’m not optimistic.
Why is that? I’ve been holding my breath for my son’s 214 and found a little hope in all the low numbers so far
I’ve received unofficial information that a 215 did not qualify, so I think the cutoff will be 216.
Hello Art, Thank you for everything you do for countless Families during a challenging time. We are so grateful to you! Our son scored a 221 in AZ and when I asked you last Dec., you predicted that he should make the NMSF cutoff for 2023.. Will now just patiently wait for the school notification and the extensive Finalist application process. Art, would you happen to have the latest updated data on which universities currently offer the most generous/comprehensive Scholarship packages to those students making it to NMF status? Thanks again. Sincerely, Steve
Steve,
I consider myself an expert on the Semifinalist process, but not on the college scholarship side. I’ve found that the College Confidential forums are helpful, because there are many parents who have been through or are going through the same process.
218 in Oregon…. any chance?
I think you’re in good shape this year.
213 in KY has qualified
Thank you, JK!
Any thoughts on whether IL will drop to 218? Thank you.
Jill,
I think it is likely to hold at 219.
216 in Ohio – how good are the chances??
(By the way, thank you Art for sharing your vast knowledge! Very helpful!)
I’d rank it as my most likely for Ohio.
I’ll use your comment to post the unrelated news that I now have information confirming Alaska at 210 and Arkansas at 210. New York we now know is <= 220.
Hello! Thanks for all your wok on this!
How come the FB page has Georgia with a 218 but you don’t have that listed here? Are you not confident of that number?
I’m confident. This is my vacation week, and there are times where it is much easier to update FB or these comments than it is to address the post. In the event of a disagreement, FB likely has the latest information.
Definitely an = 218 in Georgia? Or a <=218?
My son has a 217 😬
Definitely = 218, I’m afraid. Your son did a great job and will be named a Commended Student.
Hi Art, Thank you so much for everything you do. This is one of the great resources of the internet!
How confident are you of the 221 in California? My daughter has a 221 and we’re holding off the celebration for now!
Your daughter will qualify. She can celebrate now or when she receives the letter from her counselor!
MY SON MADE A 218 (LOUISIANA). DONT KNOW A WHOLE LOT ABOUT THIS BUT WILL HE QUALIFY AS A SEMIFINALIST.. HE ALSO MADE A 34 ON HIS ACT
Your son will qualify as a Semifinalist. Congratulations! The 34 ACT will be high enough to serve as a confirming score — one of the requirements for moving onto the next stage as Finalist. When he receives his letter from his counselor, it will explain what he needs to do to apply for Finalist.
any news on DMV area yet (DC, MD, VA)?
Patty,
I just added to our FB post that Maryland’s cutoff is 222 this year. That’s down 2 points from the Alternate Entry-inflated class of 2022, but it’s still above the 221 lows we have seen in the past.
Hi Art! My daughter is a 222 in MD. Is that cut off certain?
It’s certain. Congratulations to your daughter!
Did a 222 actually make it in Massachusetts?!!?!?? I hope it’s accurate omg
It looks accurate. Tentative congratulations.
Is there any more news from Massachusetts? We are unlikely at 218, but still curious to see how it goes.
Massachusetts’ cutoff came in at 220.
Do you think a 213 will qualify in New Mexico? I have been at the edge of my seat all week but my counselors haven’t heard anything.
Thanks for all of your help in this confusing process!
New Mexico has been on a downward trend recently, so I think you are in good shape with a 213.
Do you think a 212 might have a chance in Oklahoma?
Yes, a 212 is definitely in play.