April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
So abroad students will only get confirmation after all the state cutoff’s are finalized. What’s the likelihood of 221 making it.
K,
Yes, hopefully we’ll get a complete list at some point. The key states to be on the lookout for are New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maryland. [Edit] A 221 is possible if the low marks end up capping all those cutoffs. The last time that happened was with the class of 2013.
Mr. Sawyer,
Apologies for disturbing you, but I am deeply concerned whether I will become a semifinalist or not. I am from Oklahoma with a 211 index score, but the “most likely” is 212. What would you say my chances are when it comes to this? I am really hoping I pull through with this one. Thank you in advance!
Matt,
I tend to be conservative with my “most likely.” As a small-ish state, Oklahoma’s cutoff can bounce around. We saw 212 last year, but it was 211 and 210 in prior years. I’d stay optimistic.
Art, my index score is 212; I am from Oklahoma. What would you estimate my chances to be?
So far we seem to be on trend for what we were expecting — a low year nationally. I think it’s unlikely that we’d see a 213 in OK, so you’re in great shape!
213 has qualified in Oklahoma…
Thank you for the information!
Thanks for this great info! My TX kid is thrilled with his 222.
Congratulations!
I qualified as a 224 from Florida. Is my 1540 SAT superscore too low to confirm? I’m planning on submitting my 36 ACT instead.
Caleb,
Your 1540 is and 36 are both MORE than high enough. The confirming score is basically set at around the Commended cutoff. I think your ACT score is higher, but keep in mind that the Science score doesn’t count. If you had a 35E 35M 36R, it might be close (I admit that I haven’t done the math). You can find more information on our National Merit FAQ and see how the scores convert using a concordance.
My daughter’s 217 qualified in Mississippi.
Congratulations to your daughter!
My son has 215 in Ohio. he hasn’t heard from his school yet. Who should he be contacted, if at all?
Muhammed,
I would wait until next week and then check with your counselor. Some schools don’t inform students until names are released to the press. This was on September 15th last year. If they stick to Wednesday, it would be September 14th this year.
Do you know where to find the names of past NMSF? I used google but ended up no luck. Thank you.
NMSC does not publish a publicly available list. Instead, it sends state lists to press outlets around the country. It’s up to those organizations to decide how (or if) to publish the information. Some post the full PDF. Helpful Redditors sometimes compile a list such as this one: https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/ipmq79/lists_of_semifinalists_by_state/.
What will be the score for Ohio? Do you think he can qualify?
I don’t have any information yet. It’s likely to be in the 214-216 range. Hopefully it stays at 215.
213 qualified in Nebraska.
Thank you!
I have a friend in Missouri who scored a 212 and did not make it.
Thank you, Calvin. I’ve marked Missouri confirmed at 213.
Hi Art!
I have a 221 in Texas, so I should qualify based on what people have reported here. I am planning on using my ACT score to confirm finalist status, but I read in another comment that the science section doesn’t count. I have a 35 composite: 36E, 33M, 35R, 36S.
Should I use my 1490 SAT score or my ACT without science?
Thanks!
Ethan,
Both you SAT and ACT scores are high enough to be confirming scores. Your ACT score is probably a little higher. I can only say probably because you didn’t mention the ERW/M split. NMSC uses the Selection Index formula of doubling the ERW score. Your ACT converts to a 770 ERW and a 740 M, so your SAT Selection Index is 228 (77 x 2 + 74). We have more details in our National Merit FAQ.
Not super helpful, but 223 qualified in Illinois
It’s good news for someone. Thanks!
Any news on Kentucky. We have a 214 trying to ascertain
Not yet, John. One of the problems is that once students’ find out that they have qualified, they become far less concerned about cutoffs. Word won’t get out at many schools until after Labor Day.
Thanks for these updates. We’re excited over here as we’ve been watching for your updates. We are in California and my son has a 222. Yay!
Congratulations to your son, Janna!
I made it with a 219 in Tennessee
Congratulations, Niles.
Let’s go Niles! I made it too with a 218 in TN
Congratulations, Jackson!
218 just qualified in Arizona, hope this helps
Thank you, Akhil! I’ve entered Arizona.
218 qualified in Tennessee. What would a confirming Act score be? I have a 33 math 34 english and a 36 reading.
Congratulations, Matthew! You have to convert the components of an ACT score into an SAT score and form a Selection Index. That number should be at least as high as the Commended Figure of 207. You can check our National Merit FAQ for the formula and a link to the concordance table. You are somewhere in the mid-220’s, so it is not an issue.
My daughter’s 213 qualified in Arkansas
Congratulations to your daughter! I’ve updated the highest possible AR cutoff.
My son’s 220 qualified in Washington State
Congratulations to your son, Dave! The 220 will be welcome news to many folks, since WA has been one of the top 10 cutoffs recently.
Is 207 the confirmed commendable cutoff for this year?
Julia,
Yes, we were able to confirm the Commended cutoff in the spring.
Just saw on Reddit that IL had a 222 that qualified. I have a 221 so fingers crossed that we get news of it dropping further in the next few days here 🙂
I’ve got solid information that your 220 will qualify!
Hi Art. Are you referring to IL? My daughter had exactly a 220, so that would be great news!
Yes, Illinois is 220 or lower. Congratulations to your daughter!
Ooooh…here’s hoping for the “or lower.” My daughter has a 219 and we’ve been refreshing this page for a couple of days!
I’m trying to get final confirmation soon on IL.
That’s a relief for me! My son had a 222, and we are still waiting to hear. I saw the 223 score this morning (which has since been lowered to a 220) and was really bummed!
I qualified with a 215 in Idaho.
Thank you, S!
My son’s 218 qualified him to be a Semifinalist in North Carolina.
Congratulations to your son, Sandi. Thank you!
Probably not too helpful, but I heard a 221 qualify in Ohio on reddit.
Thanks for passing it along, RL.
Not real helpful, but I qualified in Texas with a 220, not new data but it should help some still anxious people.
It’s always nice to get added reports. Congratulations, Mavo!
Congratulations! May I ask how you were notified? Did you get an email?
Would you still officially be considered a semifinalist if you get above the cutoff (219 in NC) but as a sophomore not a junior? Maybe a Semifinalist who cannot be a finalist because they were not a junior? Or do you just get street cred and hope it was not a fluke when you take the test as a junior next month?
DJ,
Only juniors participate in the NMSQT part of the PSAT/NMSQT. So, yes, just street cred and confidence for next month’s test.
I have heard that the PA cutoff is 218 on Reddit!
Updated. Thank you!
I’m unable to find this on Reddit…can you post the link? My son is 217, so a 218 cutoff is crushing.
Phil, I’m sorry to hear that your son missed out on NMSF. I’ve confirmed that the Reddit information is correct and that Pennsylvania’s cutoff is 218 this year.
Thanks Art
Phil, been there, done that with kiddo #1. Missing by one point really hurts, but he will be fine. Best of luck to him!