April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
| State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
| Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
| Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
| California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
| Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
| Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
| Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
| Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
| Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
| Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
| Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
| Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
| Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
| Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
| Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
| Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
| Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
| New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
| Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
| Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
| South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
| Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
| Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
| Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
| Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
| U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
My score was 221 in CA. What made you change your most likely from 221 to 222 as the cutoff?
Thank you.
Ana,
I believe my Most Likely for CA has been at 221 for a while. It’s certainly possible that we’ll see a recovery to 222, but most indicators point to a low year for cutoffs.
Anxiously awaiting the Minnesota cutoff!!
Anyone have news for Minnesota??
Nothing yet, Sara.
Hi Art,
For Minnesota, is your cutoff prediction still 219? Any update?
Thanks!
David,
I’ve updated my Most Likely to 218. We’re probably going to see it fall in the 217-219 range.
Hi,
I got a 214 from WI. What would be my chances of getting selected? I see that the last year’s cutoff for WI was 214, but how often does it fluctuate?
Shreya,
Even in years where the Commended cutoff is unchanged (as in this year), about half of the state cutoffs go up or down. You only need to worry about it going up, of course. I’d say your odds are good (70-80%?), but it’s tight enough that you’ll want to keep your fingers crossed come late August.
Hi Art,
In ID would a 215 PSAT score qualify for SF, and if so, would a 1480 SAT be high enough? Do they ever look at ACT scores (score of 34) or is it only the SAT?
Thanks!
Anon,
A 215 will likely qualify as Semifinalist in Idaho this year. As a confirming score for the Finalist selection, NMSC makes a Selection Index from your SAT or ACT score (the procedure for the ACT gets complicated) as detailed here. The cutoff is usually set at the Commended level, so your 1480 should produce a high enough score no matter the ERW/M split.
Art, you have “detailed here” as if it’s supposed to be a link, but it’s not a link in my browser. Can you please provide the actual URL in your comment so I can review? Our daughter’s ACT is definitely better than her SAT, so we’d like to research the process for the selection index based on ACT scores. Thank you!
Sorry, Gordon. You can find the information in our National Merit: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
Is there any benefit to getting a 214 in California? CLass of 2023 and not sure if I should be looking out for anything.
Alex,
It’s an achievement that will reward you with a Commended Student honor. While most scholarships are associated with Finalist status, you can list your Commended status on your college applications.
Hi Art,
I’m from Illinois and my Selection Index is 219, the same as the “Most Likely” cutoff. Given that the cutoff for Commendation is lower than usual this year, what do you think my chances of becoming a Semifinalist are?
Eric,
My Most Likely estimate takes into account the weak year (there is also a good argument for 218). The good news is that Illinois has never gone above 219 in “low” years. The caveat is that until Illinois switched to the P/SAT as the state-sponsored exam, its cutoffs were lower, so the historical record means a bit less. I’d say that your chances are 70-80%.
Hi Art,
2 questions:
1. If a student takes the PSAT NMSQT as a homeschooler in junior year, and then they decide to enroll full-time in public school for their senior year, if their PSAT score is high enough to become a NMSF, are they treated as a homeschooler within the process to move to Finalist since they were a homeschooler when they actually took the test?
Or, would they be treated as a public school student since that is what they will be when the score shows up in September?
Asking because who writes the Student’s Recommendation Letter will be determined by this. The public school principal or someone at the school is supposed to write the Recommendation Letter for full-time public students. Homeschool students handle the Recommendation Letter by choosing someone who knows them well.
Different Student:
2. If a student takes an AP Test and knows they did very poorly on it, likely scoring a “1”, and this student’s PSAT score has a very good chance of qualifying them as a National Merit Semifinalist, should they cancel this AP score before it comes in? The score is not the student’s fault. The instructor did not cover 1/2 of the coursework. The classroom is chaotic every single day. The student studied a lot outside the classroom but is almost certain their score will be extremely low. It’s likely the entire class scored a “1”.
All other test scores are reported on the transcript, which makes us think that AP scores will also be reported there. The student does not want this score considered as part of the National Merit Finalist Application or for it to be seen by any university admissions or scholarship personnel, when the time comes.
The student is wondering if it is worse to score a “1” or if it would be seen as worse to remove it and not report it altogether. They know that earning a “C” on a grade card can make a student ineligible for National Merit Finalist, and it seems like scoring a “1” on an AP test would be viewed as just as bad or even worse. Or is there a way to give a statement regarding the score? This student usually scores in the top 99% of all test takers. First time for this. (The student has over 100% in the class as a grade.)
Thank you.
Barbie,
1) I haven’t encountered this situation. Transfers — homeschoolers or otherwise — are not uncommon, so I’m sure that NMSC has set guidelines about whether the junior or senior year status applies. I recommend contacting them directly.
2) AP scores are not used by National Merit. When you say that the test scores are reported on the “transcript,” I’m not sure if you mean the school’s transcript or the student’s College Board record. It’s considered bad form for schools to put scores directly on a student’s transcript, but some schools do it nonetheless. AP scores are sent separately from SAT scores, and a student has the option of withholding or canceling scores. Find out more about those options in College Board’s FAQ. There would be no reason to directly send AP scores to National Merit.
Hi, Mr. Sawyer,
Do you have an idea when the official NMSF names will be announced? Thank you!
Wei,
Names have been sent to schools, but there is no generally agreed upon way of notifying students. Most students will receive word from their counseling department or principal between now and the second week of September.
Do you mean that students won’t receive notifications from college board?
That’s right. National Merit, not College Board, sends out notifications, and the notifications go directly to schools.
Thanks!
215 qualified in Kansas.
Thank you!
Does a lower Florida cutoff than expected signal that other states will also tend to the lower end of the range? Speaking as a 221 from CA.
Alisa,
While one state doesn’t indicate a trend, it’s nice to see a big state such as Florida come in low.
Hi Art. Do you know if CB generally sends all the letters for every state out around the same time or do they batch them by state or region? If the former, most schools should have the scores within a couple days, if the latter entire states many not have had letters sent yet, etc. Thanks.
J,
National Merit mails everything at the same time from its headquarters in Illinois, and yet there have been years where Illinois schools have been among the last to receive letters. The USPS gets the job done, but on its own inscrutable schedule.
If the chart shows 43,985 students were in the high scorer range of 1400-1520…and the top 50,000 kids get commended or better…wouldn’t that mean even some kids under 1400 would get commended? My son got 1400 and a 206, which sounds like he’s one of the 43,985 high scorers but below the cutoff and won’t get commended.
Jen,
National Merit doesn’t use the combined score (the 1400 – 1520). [We cite it in the article because it’s the score range that College Board releases.] Instead, NM uses the Selection Index, which puts twice as much weight on the Reading and Writing (ERW) score than on the Math score. Your son, I believe, scored a 660 ERW and 740 M to give him a 1400 combined score and a 206 SI (66 x 2 + 74). A student scoring 700 ERW and 700 M would have received an SI of 210 (70 x 2 + 70). There were enough students scoring lower than 1400 but with SIs above 206 that your son did not qualify. For example, a student scoring 750 ERW and 620 M would have a combined score of 1370 but an SI of 207.
That all makes sense, thank you for the response!
216 qualified in Alabama!
Congratulations, B! Thank you for sharing.
Thank you for all you do to support and encourage families as we travel this path. You do a fantastic job and are greatly appreciated.
Congrats! I wish our school would announce it. Also hoping it’s below 216 (AL).
I’m guessing 212/213 for Alabama myself. I hope that will be what you need.
216 Qualified in TN.
Thank you, Priscilla. I hope that was good news for you!
Apologies if this is obvious and I’m missing it. What is the “given Selection Index” referenced in the legend? (<= indicates that the cutoff is equal to or lower than the given Selection Index)
I was thinking it was the "Most Likely" number in the table for 2023, but Alabama's confirmed cutoff is higher than Compass' estimated number, and Kansas' is lower.
Alabama is not yet confirmed (AFAIK). The less than or equal means that we know the HIGHEST that the cutoff could be is less than or equal to 216. If someone qualifies at 214, then we would know the cutoff is <= 214. It's not until we hear from someone who has not qualified that we can say we know the cutoff for sure. [Or we hear the cutoff from a counselor.]
Ah, got it. Thank you!
Thanks for all this information. It appears that you will use “=” to indicate that you can confirm what the state’s actual cutoff is, and that you will use “<=" or "=<" when you have anecdotal information regarding a state from a reader based on their child's actual score, but you are not able to confirm that state's cutoff lies. In the latter cases, the cutoff could still be quite a bit lower (or higher) than the score one student reported. Is that accurate?
That’s right GC. We don’t know the exact cutoff until we hear from someone who did NOT qualify. Or we hear from a counselor who has confirmed the cutoff as received from National Merit.
219 qualified in Texas. We homeschool and just got the letter in the mail.
Congratulations to your student! Thank you for posting, Jennifer. That will be a relief to a lot of students in Texas.
It was such relief for us too so I was excited to share for all those waiting to hear! Thank you for keeping the list up to date for us!
Thanks Jenifer!
yes this is a huge relief. Thank you Jennifer!
Thank you for the update, Jennifer!
Yes, big relief! Thank you for sharing!
Thank you for sharing Jennifer! Was anxiously waiting here in Texas!
This is for semifinalist right? Because I got a 219 too!
That’s right, Leul.
My daughter’s 214 qualified in Arkansas.
Qualified as a 214 in AL!
Congratulations, J! I’m away from my computer but will update the page shortly.
A 217 qualified in Indiana
Congratulations, Aarush!
215 qualified in Indiana too
Thanks, Chloe.
221 qualified in California
That’s more good news for a lot of students. Thank you, Vernon!
Do you think there is any chance a 220 may qualify in CA?
Andrea,
Yes, I think a 220 is in play in California.
My son has 220 in Texas and he hasn’t heard from his school yet. Who should he be contacted, if at all?
Notifications have been mailed to school principals. It often takes time for schools to notify students, especially at the beginning of the school year. Congratulations to your son! I’m sure that he’ll eventually get the good news.
Hello, I have a 219 and I am from Texas. Am I semifinalist?
Thanks
AJ
Yes, that’s my understanding. Anyone with a 219 or higher will be a Semifinalist in TX. It’s still possible that the cutoff is even lower.
Thanks a Bunch!
Hi Art,
I am from Texas with a 218. Any chance at all that this could make the cutoff?
Technically we still don’t know the cutoff, so it could be 218. Unfortunately, it’s been about a decade since Texas came in at 218.
Missouri had a 215 qualify
Thank you!
Missouri <=215
Thanks, Clemente.
Hi Art!
First of all, I would like to thank you for your amazing work cataloging all of this, I have been looking at it for a while. I’m a Florida student who has just recently qualified with a 216!!! I am so excited because of the Benacquisto scholarship, but I have a question I hope you’d know the answer to. The eligibility requirements say you have to be a National Merit Scholar, which includes the National Merit awards, corporate-sponsored awards, and college-sponsored awards. I’m interested, though, how likely it is that I would get a college-sponsored award? let’s say, for example, my first choice was the University of Central Florida. Considering I don’t have any sort of disciplinary record or extenuating circumstances, would they have a reason to not grant me their college-sponsored scholarship? Would love to know your thoughts on this, thank you!
Congratulations, Ryne! Yes, the Benacquisto is a great program for the participating Florida schools. In order to qualify as a Scholar, you first need to be named a Finalist. If you were to then list UCF as your first choice with National Merit, you would receive a scholarship. In order to become a finalist, you need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score (see our FAQ for more info), a completed application (you’ll receive this information from your high school), a recommendation from your school, and “a record of very high academic performance.” It’s that last one that National Merit leaves vague. About 15,000 of 16,000 NMSFs become Finalists.