April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
| State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
| Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
| Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
| California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
| Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
| Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
| Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
| Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
| Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
| Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
| Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
| Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
| Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
| Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
| Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
| Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
| Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
| New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
| Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
| Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
| South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
| Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
| Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
| Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
| Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
| U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
My student scored high on his PSAT (Looks like he’ll make our state’s NM Semifinalist cut-off) and his ACT.
He had heard about only answering what was required when taking the tests, so we’ve literally not received any mailers or promotional materials.
That’s fine, but I want to make sure we’re not missing anything either.
I’m also a little worried if he filled things out correctly to make sure he’s eligible to be included to be a NM Semifinalist.
He filled out that his graduating year is 2023, but is there anything that he should make sure to check in his College Board account for the PSAT for NM Semi-finalist purposes?
Or anywhere else for anything?
I’m happy not to be getting any marketing materials, but it’s almost a little disconcerting! (Can’t win)
Thank you.
G,
If he logs into his College Board account, there should be a section of the PSAT report for National Merit. It will indicate whether he is listed as eligible.
Your student may have opted out of the Student Search Service that colleges use to buy mailing lists. To be clear, they don’t know anything more than we do about National Merit status. Colleges are allowed to buy names from College Board based on PSAT score ranges. College Board is all too happy to let him change his designation to receive mail.
Hi
Junior (Tx) took PSAT fall 2021 and got 1450); Index 218(99th%)- probably Commened status). Compass shows prediction of 218-222 range with mostly likely Finalist@220 but also shows quite a swing in historical trends. She took SAT Dec 2021 and got 1570(missed 5 Qs). Anymore thoughts on Tx Finalist being closer to 218? While being commended is likely in Tx, does applying to other states with lower finalists scores help in her college applications? If she qualifies for finalist does she have to take another SAT to qualify or can she submit the Dec2021 /1570 number?
Chris,
Yes, Semifinalist cutoffs do move around. We expect to see a down year, so 219 or 220 are possibilities. I have 218 as a borderline case. It hasn’t happened in Texas in 10 years, but this may shape up to be a very unusual year.
I’ve never heard of colleges treating Commended or Semifinalists differently based on where they are located. I don’t think they’d even be allowed to under NMSC rules.
She can submit her Dec SAT as a confirming score. Great job!
Why does it take so long for them to determine/announce recognition and semi-finalists given the test is given in October? You think with technology they should know all their results by December.
Jack,
The gracious interpretation is “if it ain’t broke.” NMSC has barely changed its procedures in 50 years.
It’s not quite as simple as running a database report, because NMSC does need to do checking on their own and then cross-validation with schools to verify student eligibility. They also have different parts of the process running at different times. For example, now is when scholarship matches are taking place for seniors. They also have Alternate Entrants who missed the PSAT and must submit SAT scores. The bottom line is that they feel that the schedule works for them. Even when they are ready to announce the Semifinalists, it’s maddening that they do it with snail mail. Outside of the movies, when was the last time a college used letters rather than the internet to inform students of admission?
Thank you for your insightful article. My daughter has an index of 222, class of 2023, California. Likelihood of her becoming a semi finalist in California?
Sock,
California reached 223 in the class of 2019, but that was a year where scores were high across the board, with a 212 Commended cutoff. We are seeing weakness this year. It seems unlikely that CA will go above 222, but I don’t want to completely discount the possibility. I’d say your daughter’s chances are at least 90%.
Hello,
My daughter is in IL and had a point total of 220 on the PSAT. As it is 1 point above your “most likely,” what would be your ballpark re: her odds? It looks like IL has only gone to 221 when the national PSAT scores were very high, percentage wise.
I also wanted to ask if an SAT exam she took over the summer could be used as the confirming score? She took the SAT the summer before her junior year and scored 1460 (760M, 700R). Of course, she has the SAT coming up again this month and I expect her to do better the second time around, but wanted to see if the first score could be used just in case.
Thanks!
Anon,
Based on what we know right now, I’d say that she is in the 80%+ category. We often find out the exact Commended cutoff in late April. I *expect* it to come in where I’ve predicted, but I’ll feel better once we have it confirmed. If it comes in as low as I think, then I’d bump her chances to 90-95%, IL would have to do something very unusual. If it turns out that the scores were not as low as my research predicted, then it becomes more of a toss-up.
Yes, a student can use scores as early as October of sophomore year. Your daughter’s score works as a confirming score and would already be high enough.
Any chance a 220 in CA can make the cut for the class on 2023?
Drea,
I don’t want to say that it is impossible, but it’s highly unlikely. California’s cutoffs are consistently among the highest in the country. If we see a really low Commended cutoff, it could indicate that scores have fallen nationally more than expected. As I said, it’s not impossible.
Can one low SAT score ruin my daughter’s chances of becoming a National Merit Finalist if she already has a good confirming SAT score? My daughter already has gotten very high confirming score on a previous SAT, so she wasn’t planning on taking the SAT again, but her school is requiring her to take a school-day SAT as a state-wide assessment. She is worried that, if she bombs the school-day test, that would disqualify her from being a National Merit Finalist. When she sends her confirming score to the National Merit Scholarship Program, can she “score choice” and send only the SAT with the best score, or must she send in all her scores? And if she has to send in all her SAT scores, would a low score on one test hurt her chances of becoming a Finalist? Thank you!
Katie,
NMSC uses a student’s highest SAT score. While it does not superscore, there are no circumstances where an outlier score hurts a student. You can use Score Choice or let NMSC choose your daughter’s best score, but the result will be the same.
Thanks so much for the very helpful reply. That really puts my daughter’s mind at ease. And thank you for all you do!
Hi Art, thank you for this very informative article. My daughter (class of 2023) scored a 228 index in Massachusetts, and I’m curious if you know about how many students actually get perfect scores every year. I’m also curious as to whether you know anything about the process of deciding which of the semifinalists become finalists (as I’ve heard most semifinalists make it to finalist standing barring extreme cases, is this true)? As well as which of the finalists get scholarships. Thanks!
Anya,
Congratulations to your daughter! College Board has never published score distributions for the current PSAT. My estimate is that about 1000-1500 students achieve perfect scores each year.
It’s true that most Semifinalists (about 16,000) become Finalists (about 15,000). Semifinalists must get a confirming SAT or ACT score, which basically means an SAT score with a Selection Index of about 210 or higher (trivial for your daughter). They must receive a recommendation from their high school principal. And, the squishiest criteria, they must have “a record of very high academic performance
in all of grades 9 through 12.”
The scholarship process is more complicated. If a scholarship is a Finalist’s only goal, it’s quite simple — choose a college that sponsors National Merit scholarships (technically you must list them as a first choice with NMSC during the matching process)! About half of the 7,500 scholars receive scholarships from their colleges. The other half receive corporate- or NMSC-funded scholarships. With only about 3,500 scholarships for a highly-qualified group of students, these can be quite competitive. NMSC treats Finalist applications in much the way a college would look at applicants, considering essay, application, scores, grades, and recommendation.
Hello Art:
My son (Texas-2023) scored 223 and 1510 in SAT. What is his chance to become National Merit Semi Finalists/Finalists? Will he need a higher SAT score to qualify for Finalists? Thank you.
Shawn,
He will be a Semifinalist with a 223 in Texas. Congratulations! Most Semifinalists become Finalists. The 3 factors (other than completing the application) are a confirming SAT/ACT score, strong grades, and a recommendation from the school. Your son’s 1510 is easily high enough as a confirming score (the level is usually set at the Commended cutoff). NMSC gives no definitive guidelines for what is required for a GPA. I have heard that C’s can pose a problem. Unless there is a disciplinary problem, the school’s recommendation is straightforward.
Hi Art,
My son has a selection index of 216 in Ohio. His best composite on the SAT is a 1420, and he has a superscore of 1480. If he makes the cutoff, will a college that doesn’t accept a superscore think that a semifinalist should have an SAT score higher than a 1420. Do you recommend that he sit for the SAT again? He got a 780 on the math section the first time and hasn’t been able to come close to that in two subsequent tests.
Caroline,
I recommend making SAT retesting decisions regarding college admission separately from decisions about National Merit. We have a fairly good idea of where the SAT Selection Index for the confirming score will fall (around 210). On the other hand, every college has a different way of judging SAT and ACT scores. I would look at how your son’s score stacks up against a school’s admits. I’ve certainly never heard of a college holding NM against a student, so I don’t think you should worry that a school might be expecting a higher score from a Semifinalist.
Hi Art,
As you’ve mentioned, Alternate Entry was a huge factor last year in raising the Selection Index for both Washington DC and Maryland. Some private schools in DC knew about Alternate Entry and advised parents to jump on it, while other schools there somehow missed this information and their very deserving students therefore missed out – even ones with near-perfect SAT scores, because they never submitted them for consideration.
What would stop ALL private schools and “parents in the know” to this year have their students skip the PSAT altogether and instead prepare them to do well on the SAT, since SAT scores provide a much better chance at achieving the required Selection Index score? For example, one private high school in Florida had 51 National Merit Semifinalists last year – second highest school totals in the US. That is a huge number. Were those scores achieved via PSAT or SAT?
You adjusted down a few of your Selection Index score projections after PSAT scores came in. But won’t that change if the majority of pricey private schools and savvy parents instead came up with excuses as to why their kids could only take the SAT for 2023? Many private schools live and die by their National Merit Semifinalist list. It would seem to me that they would definitely at least consider gaming the system this way. It sure worked well for some last year!
Sid,
What would stop them? Primarily ethics with a dose of uncertainty. Alternate Entry has a specific purpose, and I would expect National Merit to clamp down if it felt like AE were being abused. AE was made easier during the pandemic, but the rubber stamp aspect is not something I expect to be permanent.
It’s interesting to speculate how AE might impact cutoffs this year, but one can quickly get tied into knots. I’m fairly certain that no one said last year, “Maryland and only Maryland will hit 224.” I expect to be wrong about many of the estimated cutoffs and try to be honest about it. That’s one of the reasons why I tend to be rigorous about showing my work.
During PSAT registration students are asked to identify a field of study. What we saw last year was a spike in the number of 000 codes (seen next to a student’s name in the list of NMSFs), which indicates no answer to the question or no registration. While not every 000 is an AE student (and not every student with a number is not-AE), there is a strong correlation.
There are schools that like to tout their NMSF numbers, but it might be a stretch to say that they live and die by it.
Hi Art,
As a 221 scorer in California (which also seems to be the ‘most-likely’ score on the chart) I had a couple quick questions I’m hoping you could answer; namely, how confident are you in that most likely number being the actual cutoff for becoming a semifinalist, would all 221 scorers be accepted as semi-finalists if the cutoff in CA is indeed 221, and does becoming a finalist improve your chances to selective colleges or does it not really matter because they are flooded with finalist applications anyways? Any insight would be appreciated!
Anthony,
It is all or nothing. If the cutoff is 221, then everyone at 221 and higher is a Semifinalist.
It depends on who you group as “selective.” If you are zeroing in on Harvard, Yale, Stanford, etc., then, yes, they are flooded by Finalist applications. Schools that provide NM scholarships generally care. You can find a list of colleges with their counts of NM Scholars in the PSAT/NMSQT Guide.
Got a 1490/222 in VA. Class of 2023. Odds of being NMSF?
Avaneesh,
Virginia is one of the most competitive states, but its cutoff has — through the class of 2022 — never gone above 222. I think you should be confident without taking it as a given. Good luck!
Thanks for the new info about the commended cutoff of 207. Does it vary by state like the semifinalist ranges do? For example, my child has a 206 in Indiana. Does that mean there is no way they’ll make the cutoff if you’re saying that it’s 207? I didn’t think 206 would be even close to making it, but it will sting a bit to miss it by just one point. Thank you for all the helpful information!
Friendly,
The Commended cutoff is the same throughout the world. Congratulations on your student’s strong score. I appreciate why missing by a point might sting, but your student should still be proud.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all of your amazing input. I didn’t even have my first son take the test because he had already gotten a high ACT score. Ugh. My daughter has a 219 in Delaware and graduates in the spring of 2023. Any thoughts about the semifinalist cutoff in our state?
Allegra,
While I think a cutoff of 220 is a bit more likely in Delaware, I’d be happy to be wrong. The state did see a cutoff of 219 for the class of 2021, and we know that this was a challenging year for many PSAT-takers. Your daughter falls squarely in the “stay positive until September” camp.
My son scored 222 index score , we live in Texas and his first SAT score is 1580, do you think he will be a semifinalist if so can he make it to finalist.
jyothi,
It seems highly unlikely that Texas would set a new record in such a down year. Your son will be a Semifinalist. He also has an SAT score that fulfills the need for a “confirming score.” The other components of the Finalist decision are his application, a recommendation from his school, and a “consistently very high academic record.” Those factors can’t be accurately handicapped becomes NMSC does not release details. Most Semifinalist do end up becoming Finalists.
Hello Art
Thanks for your effort. My son has 220 in Texas and SAT of 1560. With commended cut-off now confirmed as 207 (like 2022), do you think that 220 would again be the Semi-finalist cut-off like 2022?
Also, now that National merit has all the scores, do you have an idea as to why it takes them until August to figure out the Semi-finalist cut-off in this computer age?
P.,
Yes, I’d rank it as 220, 219, and 221 in order of likelihood (with 220 as my Most Likely).
The glib answer is that National Merit hates change. Who uses the mail to make notifications in 2022? The fairer answer is that there is a rhythm that needs to be followed. NMSC needs to work with schools to verify student information. Ineligible students don’t count toward the computation of cutoffs. Why not do that in Jan, Feb, or March? One potential answer is that those are the months when NMSC is heavily involved in selecting Finalists and making matches with colleges. And as long as it insists on running notifications through schools, June and July are out of the picture. Last year NMSC’s calendar worked out well, since it would have been impossible to deal with the January PSAT and the flood of Alternate Entry applicants on a winter/spring timeline.
Hi Art
Thanks for your help as always!
To keep you informed and help with your data base, my son got confirmation from school that he is a Semifinalist with a 212, in a US Territory. He was later told, they made a mistake and that they should have not share that information with him until September. Hope this help with your analysis.
Fern,
Thank you. The U.S. Territory number has always fallen at the Commended cutoff, so your school is right that he will qualify. They are also right to backtrack, because nothing becomes final until NMSC says it is final. Your school is unlikely to have been specifically informed that your son is a Semifinalist. Instead, he would have been on their list of eligible students for honors (Commended and Semifinalist). NM gets information from the school to verify that list before it continues the process. Since you are in a U.S. Territory, your school has experienced everyone on that list becoming a Semifinalist. That’s a long way of saying that they will ultimately be right, but it is premature to say so. The school will get official letters sometime around the end of August.
Hi Art,
My son’s PSAT is 223 and his SAT is 1510. We live in Texas. My question is that he has had a lot of trouble with school precipitated by the Pandemic. Do grades lower than A’s affect the outcome of National Merit Scholar? I feel like the school would have notified us by now if he was a finalist. He graduates in 2023. Two of his brothers were finalists, but they also had stellar grades.
Thanks for your help!
Margie,
Let’s start with the good/great news. Your son’s score will qualify him as a Semifinalist. Congratulations! He won’t hear this from the school — because the school doesn’t even know it — until around Labor Day. At that time, he’ll get information about filling out his Finalist application on the National Merit Portal.
Most Semifinalists become Finalists, but it is not guaranteed. Your son’s SAT score gives him the necessary confirming score. It sounds like the biggest obstacle is the requirement to have “a consistently very high academic record.” NMSC does not put a number to this. My advice is for your son to concentrate on what he can control — doing as well as possible as he completes his junior year. Hopefully he will make Finalist.
Art,
Thank you very much for the very insightful information! Now that the commended score is known? What percent chance would you give my daughter in Florida of being a NMSF with her 217?
Kind regards,
BunBun
BunBun,
Based on where the Commended level fell and what we have seen from Florida, I think it is far more likely that we will see a 216/217 cutoff than a 218/219 cutoff. Florida has had 3 years of 219 cutoffs recently, but they’ve all come in years with a high Commended cutoff. I’d put your daughter’s chances at 80-90%. Someone I know who is quite familiar with the Florida landscape would peg it even higher. I tend to be cautious because I’ve seen weird things happen.
Hi art, I got a 223 in NJ. Do you think I will become a semifinalist?
AJ,
Only one state has ever hit 224, and that was Maryland last year do to the oddities around canceled test and Alternate Entry. While it’s true that NJ is the state most likely to hit 224 at some time in the future, it’s highly unlikely that this will be the year. As predicted, we’ve seen a very low Commended cutoff. In such years, new records on the upside are rarely made. I don’t think we can put your odds at 100%, but they should be close to it.
Hi Art,
If my son is on the semifinalist or finalist but he may not be a winner, any benefit for him in semifinal or finalist? Thanks you, Justin.
Justin,
Most colleges that offer college-sponsored National Merit Scholarships provide them to Finalists who list the college as first choice in the National Merit Finalist portal. If your son makes Semifinalist but misses out on Finalist, there are some schools — although considerably fewer — that provide awards to Semifinalists.
If you are talking about benefit for admission, it varies tremendously by college. In general, the more competitive the college, the lower the benefit.
Hi Art,
I scored a 213 on the PSAT in New Mexico. Do you think this will be high enough to qualify as a semifinalist? I have a GPA over 4.0 but I am not sure what my SAT score is yet for my first attempt. What SAT score do you think I need to become a finalist? If I get a score below that, should I try to retake over the Summer?
Ben,
The cutoffs of small states such as New Mexico are more volatile than those of larger states. In the last 6 years, New Mexico’s cutoff has bounced around between 210 and 215. The good news is that in years where the Commended cutoff has been below 210 (and it is 207 this year), the New Mexico cutoff has been 213 or lower. Based on what we have seen of scores this year, I think you stand a good chance.
The “confirming score” applies the Selection Index to an SAT score. The cutoff is generally set at the Commended cutoff. This means that your SAT Selection Index would need to be at least 207. I recommend that students don’t cut it close. I would shoot for at least 210. NMSC takes your highest scores (but not a superscore) in determining eligibility, so retaking the SAT is definitely an option. You can get a confirming score as late as December of your senior year.
Good day Art
Would 222 in psat and 35 in act qualify for national merit finalist in MA for 2023 ? Academic stand is good. Is SAT required and if so before when should it be taken?
Thank you for your time and appreciate all the good work
Mary
Mary,
I don’t see how MA’s cutoff moves to 223 unless something really unusual happens with Alternate Entry. That means you’re almost certain to be named a Semifinalist. National Merit finally caught up with the times a few years ago and started accepting the ACT as a confirming score to become a Finalist. Your 35 will work. If your academic record is strong and your school supports you, I like your chances to make Finalist!
Thank you for your time & appreciate all you do Art 🙂
Hey Mr. Sawyer,
I received a 214 in Kentucky and was just wondering if you thought that my score would be high enough to qualify to be a Semi-Finalist?
John,
While I think that the Kentucky cutoff could fall anywhere from 212 to 216, I now have 214 as my Most Likely. I’d say that there is a good chance you will make Semifinalist.