April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
​U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
​​Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
​​​Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
Thanks for the article. I see that the max limit has dropped to 220 for NC. My son has an index of 220, class of 2023. What are his chances of becoming a semifinalist? Is there a chance of a new high being set in NC?
Sun,
I suppose that there is a chance of a new high, but it would be an exceedingly slim one given the trend we are seeing nationally. I’m reasonably confident that 220 will qualify as a Semifinalist this year.
Hi ARt,
I have a Q about the rural/small town National scholarship. How do you know what the cut-off for PSAT Fall 2021 is for the 90% percentile for the state of PA. We live in a small/rural town. Thanks for your guidance. Thank you. Kate
Kate,
College Board does not report this data. Unfortunately, there is not a good way of estimating it by state. To give the completely non-scientific response: fingers crossed.
My son (class of 2023) scored 212 in the PSAT in Tennessee. It does appear that he will miss the cut of scores based on the estimates, but is commended still a possibility?
What are the benefits of getting commended?
Marc,
Yes, he’ll almost certainly qualify as a Commended Student. For most Commended Students it is simply a recognition of a job well done. There are some company-sponsored National Merit scholarships that can go to Commended Students, but they are rare. You might check the College Confidential or Reddit forums to see if there are any colleges currently providing merit aid to Commended Students.
I do not have a full understanding how the scores work. My daughter score 190 but it says she is in the 96th percentile. Could you explain what that means?
Anon,
The 190 is what is known as a Selection Index, and its only use is for National Merit. That score won’t be high enough to achieve National Merit recognition, but let me try to explain the 96th percentile.
The percentile is probably based on her total score rather than her Selection Index. The percentile you are seeing is probably what College Board calls the Nationally Representative Sample Percentile. It’s a made up percentile based on an estimate of what would happen if every junior in the country took the PSAT. In reality, higher scoring students are more likely to take the PSAT. There is a second percentile called the User Percentile that compares students to others who have taken the PSAT. A 96th percentile score in the National Percentile is a 91st percentile score in User Percentile for juniors. Long explanation short: it sounds like your daughter is in the top 10% of students taking the PSAT.
Mr. Sawyer, your knowledge of these numbers is uncanny. You mention that a 190 is likely 91 percentile nationally. We were wondering what top 10% is for our state, Maryland, for hispanic recognition. (I think my son needs to be top 10% for that by state). Thanks
Juan,
I haven’t written much about the NHRP recently, because College Board has changed them so much as to be unrecognizable. College Board does not publish percentile charts by state. In looking at the class of 2020 numbers (I wanted to avoid the pandemic-impacted class of 2021), 4% had scores from 1400-1600 and 16% scored 1200-1390. That likely means that top 10% is going to fall around 1300 +-20 points. I wish I could be more accurate, and of course we don’t know how things played out this year. College Board, BTW, uses Total Scores rather than Selection Indexes. You may already know that your son can also qualify via 9th and 10th grade AP scores, if he has gotten 3 or above. It’s an either/or situation, so if he has 2 strong APs, then he doesn’t need to worry about his PSAT score (and vice versa).
Thanks.
He is right at 1300. We will let you know when we know.
Art, as promised letting you know about my son and Hispanic Recognition. A 1300 makes the cut in Maryland. Thanks
Thank you, Juan!
Hi Art,
Great articles! My daughter got a 219 in Florida, Class of 2023. Would you predict that she would be a Semi-Finalist?
Don,
Yes, your daughter will qualify as a Semifinalist with a 219. Congratulations!
My son scored a 220 index in Texas. I saw that you predicted a cutoff of 220, but previously had predicted 221 – do you think it is likely that he will be a semifinalist?
Joe,
The 220 was (is) my prediction after having had the opportunity to analyze the national results. Everything points to a year of low cutoffs. We can’t know that for sure, of course, but I think it’s more likely than not that a 220 will qualify in Texas.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all of your invaluable information! My son received a 217 Selection Index in Florida. How do you feel about his chances of becoming a Semifinalist? He received a 1540 on the SAT last month and will retake in March. Verbal 750, Math 790. Grammar is his weakness. Can you please recommend how he can improve his verbal score? Thank you!
FL Mom,
I think we’re likely to see a Florida cutoff of 216 or 217, so your son has a good chance of being a Semifinalist.
Grammar may be your son’s weakness, but he is not missing many problems with a 750. When a student misses 20 problems on a test, it’s is usually pretty easy to find areas for improvement. When a student is only missing 2 or 3 problems, it’s harder to pinpoint. He may be able to improve through practice alone.
My son scored a 219 as a sophomore in NC this past October. I understand he is not eligible to be considered a Semifinalist even if his score proves to meet the threshold this year because he is not a junior. If he ends up having a particularly bad test day when he sits for the test next year, as a junior, can his sophomore score be used to qualify if it is above threshold for next years test?
DJ,
Only the results of the junior year PSAT are considered for National Merit. On the bright side, if your son was able to score a 219 in sophomore year, he should be in good shape to do well in October. Best of luck!
Hi Art,
My daughter PSAT score just came in today (a month late!). Her index score is 220, class of 2023. Do you think she has a chance of becoming a semifinalist in Maryland?
Tony,
As you probably know, Maryland had the highest cutoff last year (something of a fluke), but always comes in top 5 or so. We haven’t seen a 220 cutoff in over a decade. This is an odd year, so I can’t say that there is no chance of a 220. More likely is a 221 or 222 cutoff.
Hello Art,
My son scored 1460 in PSAT 217 index in Junior year
Arizona cut of is 217 – 221
What do u think about his chances?
Shri,
It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible. Arizona hasn’t seen a 217 cutoff since the class of 2015. We know that students didn’t do all that well on this PSAT, so it comes down to how much Arizona students struggled.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the detailed analysis and insight. How would you assess the chance of OR dropping to 218? Thank you in advance for your response.
I’m confident that we are going to see low numbers nationally. In the 3 years that has been true since the introduction of the new PSAT, Oregon has been at 219, 217, and 220 (although that 220 may have been impacted by Alternate Entry). So 218 is not out of the running. If I had to put a number on it, I’d say about 20% chance.
Hello Art, thank you for all the helpful insight. My son scored a 217 in New York, do you think there’s even a remote possibility that New York’s selection cutoff this year could drop to 217 or is it certain he may just miss it?
Rob,
In all the years I have been tracking cutoffs, I’ve yet to see NY at 217. My honest take is that your son won’t make it in a competitive state such as New York. Best of luck during the rest of this process!
My son got perfect math score in PSAT and SAT in October. His PSAT index I believe in 214 with a score of 1450. He is a junior from Oregon. What are his chances of alternate entry? how much should be get in SAT to be considered for alternate entry?
thanks,
Srividhya,
Alternate Entry is not available to students who have PSAT scores. Your son will qualify as a Commended Student based on his 214.
We’re new to this. My son has a 215 in Missouri. I’m really hoping Missouri is a state that hasn’t varied much (historically) from your predictions. Are you feeling pretty confident in the 215? Please say yes. 🙂
DJ,
I feel like a 215 is a good candidate. I’m not sure that I’d go as far as pretty confident. In one of the 3 “down years” — class of 2017 — Missouri had a 216. In the other 2 it was 214 and 214. So there is precedence for a 216 — even in a weak year nationally — but I wouldn’t say it’s the leading precedent. Don’t let what I say discourage you, since we are all just speculating until September. Positive thoughts!
Hi Art,
Thank you for the wealth of knowledge you provide!
How confident are you regarding a Selection Index of 217 for Florida? Could that number go even lower?
I think your original projected Selection Index for Florida was 218, but then it was determined that 2023 PSAT scores across the US
came in lower than expected.
Have you received any additional information regarding score projections / why scores were much lower than expected?
Do you think there was an issue with the test itself? Is it strictly pandemic-related? Something else?
Thanks again, Art!
Meredith,
My really late reply. I think 217 is the most likely cutoff. Is a 216 possible? I don’t think we can exclude it (or a 218), but I’d peg the odds at maybe 20-25%.
No definitive information, but the low percentage of high scores indicates poor test performance as opposed to the test cancellations that impacted scores last year. That poor performance could be the result of an anomalous PSAT (as it was for the class of 2021) or could indicate that even top students have struggled during the pandemic.
What are your views on 221 for Virginia this year? Its in the lower part of your range, but what would you say the odds that qualifies are?
Emanuel,
I actually have it as my “most likely” cutoff. In the years with generally weak scores (Commended < 210), Virginia has come in at 221. Reasons I can't exclude 222 or 223: 1) I could be wrong about the trend. 2) Virginia could zig while other states zag, especially given the uneven impact of the pandemic. Good luck!
I have a two part question: My daughter (IL) scored a 1460 on the SAT in IL last summer before her junior year and then scored a 1460 on the PSAT. However, the SAT points = 216, while the PSAT points = 220. Given your adjusted estimate of 219 for Illinois, what odds would you give a score of 220? It looks like on all of the low national years, IL was 218 or 219. Also, assuming she does make semi-finalist based upon her score, would the summer SAT score of 1460 be acceptable to confirm, even though the score is the same, but the SAT points = 216? Thanks!
Keith,
Sorry for the slow reply. Unless I’m wrong about this being a down year, a 220 looks very strong in Illinois. As you say, it’s only been 221 in years where the Commended cutoff was 211/212. The Commended level usually leaks out in late April and will confirm (or disprove) my findings on the overall trend. It won’t guarantee IL’s cutoff, but it would provide a bit more reassurance.
Yes, a 216 will be a sufficient confirming score. The confirming score is a national number that is usually set at the Commended level. Your daughter’s score clears it with ease.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the info and comments! My daughter is in the 2023 class. She got an index score of 224 on the PSAT in Virginia. How is her chance to be a semifinalist?
Thanks,
ZJC
ZJC,
I doubt that we’ll ever see a 225 NMSF cutoff from the PSAT, so I think your daughter is safe. The only remote possibility of a 225 would have to involve a never-before-seen level of Alternate Entry. 1) Cancellations were modest this year, so AE should be less of a factor. 2) Even with AE, I don’t see a 224 missing out in Virginia.
My son is at 222 in NJ so it appears we’re right on the edge of making/not making the cut. At this point, are we just waiting until the early Fall to find out or does the cutoff usually leak before that point? Thanks in advance.
AJ,
The Commended cutoff usually leaks in April or May, but we won’t see any Semifinalist numbers until late August or early September.
Hi Art – Does the commended cutoff coming in at 207 change your prediction in any way re: NJ being 50/50 on 222 vs 223. With my son sitting on a 222, obviously he’s right on the fence here.
Thanks again.
Now that we know with certainty that the Commended cutoff is 207, things do look rosier for a 222 in NJ. I’d put it at 60/40 or better.
Hi Art,
Very detailed articles! My daughter got a 218 /1470 in North Caroline, Class of 2023. Would you predict that she could make the semifinalist?
John,
It’s going to be close. While I have 218 as my “most likely” cutoff, realistically we have to think of it as a range of possibilities from 216 to 220 (with the extreme values being the least likely). Best of luck to your daughter!
Very excited for these students! My son got a 227 SI in Louisiana. The future is so bright! I’m learning to be patient through this process. Thank you for all your wonderful advice on this website.
Congratulations to your son, Emily! I’m sure you are both anxious to make it official and have him move on to the Finalist stage, but I can assure you that it’s much easier to be patient with a 227!
When will the official list of Semifinalists be released for the Class of 2023?
Tiffany,
National Merit doesn’t publicly publish a list of Semifinalists. Instead, it mails lists to high schools at the end of August. It also provides lists to media outlets for publication in mid-September. Some schools wait until the press release date before notifying students.
Hi Art,
What are the chances of either a Commendation or Semi-Finalist with an Index Score of 216 in Colorado for the Class of 2023? Looks like it is just below what will be expected as the cutoff score for being considered a Semi-Finalist, but wondering if there’s still a slight possibility?
Thank you,
Tam
Tamara,
Colorado had been growing more competitive, but it took a step backwards with the class of 2021 (an oddly scaled test) and the class of 2022 (significant test cancellations). While the test taker numbers have bounced back this year, the results nationally point to another set of low cutoffs. Could CO drop to 216? Yes, I think there is a possibility. At minimum you will be named a Commended Student.
Mr. Sawyer: Thanks for the prediction. when will the cutoff be released for class of 2023?
Jenee,
NMSC mails information to schools in late August. It’s up to the school when to start notifying students, but most students hear in the first 2 weeks of September. Compass and others will try to get the cutoffs early enough in September that students won’t have to wait quite as long. Still, there is a long wait ahead of us.
Hi! I am in West Virginia and my score was a 213. Do you think I will qualify as a semi-finalist this year? Like are my chances good? I looked at your list from the class of 2008 to the class of 2022 and I saw that it has never gone above 212 in WV but I am unsure if I will qualify with the pandemic affecting numbers/test performance and whatnot. Please let me know what you think! Thank you!
Mary Sue,
Yes, I think you will qualify. Not only has WV not gone over 212 in that time, only in that period has it ever gone above the national Commended level. This year will almost certainly see a sub-210 Commended score, and West Virginia’s Semifinalist cutoff will be right there with it.
Thank you so much! This was reassuring! Sorry to bother you further, but what do you think my chances are percent wise? Thank you so much for your amazing articles and predictions! 🙂
I’m going to go out on a limb and say 99+%. There is just no indication that this is going to be a breakout year, and it would require a MAJOR breakout for West Virginia’s cutoff to move to 214.
Thank you for the kind words.
Wow, thank you so much! I feel a lot better about my chances now! You are doing amazing work and it should be commended! 🙂 Thank you again and have a great night!
Hi Art — I’m wondering why the most likely cutoff for DC is 223 when the highest cutoff for any state is 222 (MA/NJ). I thought DC’s cutoff was the same as the state with the highest cutoff, so wouldn’t that be 222? Thanks
Mary,
You are correct that DC’s cutoff will be the same as the highest state cutoff. However, that means that the probability of DC having a cutoff above 222 is greater than any single state having a 223 cutoff. Last year’s MD development made this risk plain. I think things have settled back close enough to normal that NJ will at least tie for the highest cutoff and DC would follow NJ. Listing DC as 223 is a reminder, though, that DC is subject to a breakthrough cutoff in other states.