Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Question about having to verify with an SAT or ACT score to become a finalist. If my daughter has taken both SAT and ACT, does it matter which one we use to verify? If one number is higher than the other, is it advantageous for any reason to use that one, or is the verification thing simply a check-the-box sort of requirement?
Also, can you please repost the link with how to convert SAT/ACT scores to a verifying number? Thank you!
Other than the added cost of reports, there is no negative to submitting all scores. NMSC uses your best scores. In terms of qualifying for Finalist, it’s a check-the-box requirement. There is a national confirming score that falls at or near the Commended level of 207. So you would want your daughter to have an SAT (or ACT) score that converts to higher than that. You can find the calculation information at https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/. Follow the concordance links in that article to convert ACT scores to SAT scores.
hey there! did 220 qualify in washington state, or is it everyone above 220? i’m a wa 220 and was a bit confused…thanks!
Yes, we know that everyone at 220 or above will qualify (congrats!). We are just not sure if the cutoff is even lower.
👍 makes sense, thanks so much!
Hello Art, any news of a cutoff score for Idaho yet, my daughter has a 215
Thank you for all you do.
I D,
A 215 qualified, so your daughter should be receiving a Semifinalist letter shortly. Congratulations!
Hey Art! Is the 220 for New York confirmed or unconfirmed so far?
Confirmed as <=220. It's still possible that the cutoff is lower.
Been anxious for New York to drop. Thank you for your hard work!
My daughter is a 219 in Utah, so that’s looking very good.
But sadly, her counselor has possibly never heard of this program and may not even look at mail. I’m serious.
Will there be a notification sent to our home? Or will we have to rely on the school to give us any news?
During this part of the process, everything is handled through the school. The situation you describe is, alas, not that uncommon, which also means that NMSC knows how to handle it. They won’t, however, be helpful until the press release date around Sept 14th. If your counselor still hasn’t notified your daughter in 2 weeks, then give National Merit a call at (847) 866-5100. They won’t give you the information you need to apply for Finalist, but they’ll work with you to educate your counselor and move things along. The school needs to provide a recommendation and submit the Finalist application, so you’ll want the counselor to get that education.
My son has 221 (Virginia). What are his chances to qualifi.
LJ,
That one is too close to call right now, but there is a good chance that Virginia’s cutoff will remain unchanged from last year’s 221.
What is the likelihood of 217 in Michigan?
We don’t have enough information at this time. I think it’s likely to be 217 or 218.
My son supposedly qualified with 220 in California as per the letter sent to his school by NMSC, so the cutoff should be no higher than 220.
Finn,
That agrees with the information that I have, too.
Art – thank you for all you do! Will you update CA to reflect 220? Or are you still waiting for further confirmation?
Done. Travel is getting in the way of updates. I’ll try to reflect the full set of changes later today.
Does that mean a 220 in California qualifies for semifinalist?
It does!
This is fabulous news! Did your son actually receive a letter from school with a 220??
Hi, Art! Thanks for all the info. One question for you: does a better PSAT score make you more likely to advance from finalist or winner? Or is it mostly based on the essay and counselor recommendation.
Connor,
No, the PSAT scores job is to get you to the Semifinalist stage; after that, it’s work is done and other factors are used.
Hi Art —
What is the reason for all the secrecy with the NMSQT cutoff scores? It seems to me the National Merit Scholarship Corporation could easily just publish all the state cutoff scores once the letters have been mailed. I realize the status quo makes for lots of internet traffic, but the slow drip of information can be stressful for students and parents. Your input helps, of course, in the absence of direct information, but the notification system seems outmoded and intentionally drawn out.
Outmoded is a polite understatement. 30 years ago in made sense. Schools couldn’t depend on students having their own email addresses, and the PSAT registration process through the school meant that NM often didn’t have mailing addresses. But times change. It would be trivial to require every student to apply online. NMSC could set a national reveal event that would be more exciting than what they have now. Is there a college left that doesn’t let students see their admission status electronically. There are steps that require counselor input, but those would not have to be excised.
Art, have you heard anything about the essay topic this year and whether it will be the same as previous years? If not, when is that info released?
Steph,
I have not, but I can’t even remember when NMSC last changed the topic. The info is available via the Finalist portal (access information comes with the Semifinalist letter from the school).
Hi Art! Thank you so much for keeping track of this. Is 220 confirmed for California?
Yes, I hadn’t had a chance to update it here rather than on our FB page.
Art, 220 n New Jersey? Any possibility??
Dee,
I’m afraid that NJ will be over 220 this year.
Hi Art, Thanks so much for doing this! Do you think that NJ will go higher than 222?
K,
We’ve now confirmed that New Jersey’s cutoff is 223 this year.
I have a 222, do you think that’ll be enough in NI?
We’ve now learned that NJ’s cutoff is 223.
What about 221 in NJ?
We’ve learned that New Jersey’s cutoff is 223.
This doesn’t affect me personally, because my son is in another state and appears safe. But what is it about New Jersey that makes it skew so high? I typically think of Virginia, Maryland and Massachusetts as having the elite prep schools. Just curious.
Powerhouse public school systems play a larger role than elite private schools in many states. High-income suburbs with highly-educated workers (parents) produce a disproportionate number of high scoring students (although they certainly do not have a monopoly). A large percentage of New Jersey fits that definition, and it also has a high PSAT-participation rate.
Art, do you have anything yet from NJ? Also, California was a 220 and not predicted!!
New Jersey had the highest cutoff: 223.
Any word from SC? Sitting anxiously on a 215!
Tuppence,
I haven’t had a chance to get in all of the latest updates. Let’s just say that you have nothing to be anxious about. Congratulations!
This may be a stupid question, but…how are you all finding out this cutoff information? I understand NMSC sends official letters to schools/principal in late August. Is there currently an official moratorium on that information? My daughter got 219 in FL but hasn’t heard anything, though we assume we will. Is everything supposed to stay secret until Sep 14, and some people just leak it (but technically aren’t breaking any rules)? P.S. Thanks, Art, for all you do to help all of us neurotic kids and parents!
Much of the information comes from students and parents hearing from schools. Some of it doesn’t. I’ll leave it there.
224 in CO here – I have no reason to worry, right? When should I reach out to my school/counselor about the letter?
You’re a Semifinalist! Congratulations. Since you know that you’ve qualified, there is no real rush. I might ask next week, but some schools won’t pass the information along to students until the press release date (Sept 14th, I believe).
Art,
Thanks for being so insightful. Do you have input regarding listing a school as a first choice. For example school A only has limited NMF scholarships but school B guarantees it. If you don’t list school B do you automatically forfeit the scholarship opportunity at school B?
Priscilla,
This can be tricky, but the good news is that you’ve got plenty of time — matching doesn’t start until spring. NMSC is also helpful when the time comes. Whatever you list now can be changed later. Most universities that offer substantial packages — as opposed to $2,500 awards — also have liaisons to advise you. I don’t want to provide universal advice because the situations are so varied. You’re already asking the right questions, so I’m sure it will work out for your student.
Art, what are the chances of 218 in Texas? Thanks for the updates.
L,
I don’t think we’ll see Texas drop to 218, I’m afraid.
Any news on the score for students studying abroad? I understand they have to use the Washington, DC cutoff? We are at 221 so expecting to not get it, but hoping for a chance. Such a good score, but tough for those studying abroad.
Aimee,
New Jersey is the highest state cutoff this year at 223, so it determines the cutoff for DC and for students studying abroad.
How certain is the 213 for the state of KY?
Jack,
We know the Kentucky cutoff is no higher than 213 (so anyone scoring 213 or above will qualify). There is still the possibility that it is lower.
The school recommendation letter is from principal or from school counselor?
Wi,
I believe that it can come from either.
Any word on Ohio cutoff scores? I got a 217. Thank you for putting so much work into this!
Jenna,
You will be named a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
My son made 222 in S.Korea.
Do you think my son will be in the semifinalist?
Samuel,
We now know that the cutoff for students studying abroad is 223.
It is so unfair to international students. It is only one state which such a high score. So New Jersey’s cutoff in confirmed?
Yes, NJ is confirmed.
Thank you for all you do! How do you find out what the qualifying score is for the ACT/SAT?
Ana,
NMSC doesn’t release the confirming score, but it is generally at the Commended level. Later in September NMSC should be able to answer your question for you. I recommend shooting for at least a 210 SAT Selection Index.
Any updates on New Mexico?
New Mexico is at 208 this year.
Is there any news of a 216 qualifying in Ohio? (asking on behalf of a friend)
Yes! The Ohio cutoff is 216.