April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
I have a 217 in Michigan. Any updates on the cutoff?
Thank you!
Not yet, but I expect a large set of updates Tuesday morning.
So if I have a score of 218 in Texas is there no chance of becoming a semifinalist?
I’m sorry, Louisa, but that is correct.
Hello Art,
Will IL cutoff be at 219 or 218?
Thanks,
GA
Illinois is confirmed at 219!
Hi Art, how did we find out the score cutoff for Georgia? I’m just curious because I have a 219 and am a little nervous. Thanks!
Georgia’s official cutoff is 218. I just posted the complete list.
Any word on Delaware 219?
Delaware’s cutoff was 218 this year. Congratulations!
Hi, Art. I scored a 216 in Ohio. You said in another comment that a 217 should qualify, so do you have any new information?
A 216 qualified. Congratulations! We just posted the full list of cutoffs.
215 Ohio not qualified?
Adrees,
That’s correct. 216 or higher qualified in Ohio.
Not helpful at all since we already know the highest cutoff is a 223, but a 224 qualified in Colorado…
Congratulations, A! We just posted all of the official cutoffs.
Hi Art,
I just wanted to say thank you again for all of your work on this. It really helped alleviate a lot stress knowing the cut-off early. It was also great theater watching the scores roll in!
Hello, Art. I got a 220 in Massachusetts. Is this sure to qualify for NMSF?
Thank you!
Alex,
As long as you are not a boarding school student, it will qualify.
Does a 215 in AZ qualify for national merit semifinalist?
Yes, the cutoff is 214.
Do you happen to know – Were the high schools notified of their school’s semi-finalists today?
Notifications were mailed to schools about 2 weeks ago, which is why information has been filtering in. There is no single procedure for schools to notify students, but many will wait until next week when the press embargo ends.
Thanks! Your articles have been super helpful!!!!
I qualified as a semifinalist (yay!) and also have a confirming sat score. Is there anything else I can really do now to improve my application before October? Thanks for the cutoff information, you saved my friends and I a good deal of stress!
Mavo,
Congratulations! And I’m glad I could help. You can start on your Finalist essay and stay out of trouble at school! That’s about all you need to worry about at the moment.
I called high school principal this afternoon to see if my son made the NMSF, he said that he didn’t get anything from college board or NMSC yet! Is it possible?
Yes, it’s possible. I recommend patience in these situations. NMSC won’t be helpful until after the press embargo ends next week, but my experience is that they will be very helpful after that date. And the mail will have likely shown up by that point.
I’m a student in Texas and my school notified me that I made it as a semifinalist.
Congratulations, Steven!
Hi Art
Thank you for your time and service. From MA 222 but have not received any information from school. It is a catholic school. would that matter?
MaryAnn,
No, it shouldn’t matter. Many schools will wait until the press embargo ends next week. I would give it until next Wednesday and then contact your counselor. As a distraction, you can start thinking about the Finalist essay. Unless they have changed it this year: “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.”
Hi Art,
Can you explain the “press embargo”? Does the letter to schools specifically instruct them not to tell anyone until next Wednesday? And, if so, why are we hearing so many reports? According to your numbers, my son should be a finalist (222 in IL), but I’m getting a little anxious.
I don’t have the exact wording, but my recollection is that it asks schools not to “make the information public” until the announcement date. Many schools read this as only restricting public release — so avoiding things like school assembly announcements or a piece in the school newspaper. Some schools read the language as meaning that it should keep the list of students secret until the announcement date. I would feel a bit more sympathetic to NMSC’s desire for secrecy if the press release date actually saw all students being notified. Instead, NMSC only notifies schools and the press, so many students are left hanging. It’s well past time for NMSC to institute electronic notification. It’s worked for virtually every college in the country; it can work for the National Merit Scholarship Program.
Hi. Can you elaborate on “limit your response to the space provided”? Does that translate to a character or word count? Are you able to repurpose a Common App essay if it fits the prompt without editing it or is the “space provided shorter than 650 words? Thanks.
It is a combination character/space limit. Your Common App essay can likely be repurposed. Last year’s language: “We estimate your essay should be about 3,500 characters; however, you must preview your work to make sure that your essay fits in the space provided on the PDF. Any text that does not appear on the PDF will not be read or considered, even if it is within the character limit.”
Hi Art,
Thank you for all you do!! I am wondering about our Finalist application- how good do our essays, activities, etc need to be to get this status (if you have any idea)? Just worried about this along with college apps..
AFAIK, the essay and activities are not a part of qualifying as a Finalist. Those are used at the scholarship phase. The good news is that the application is not daunting. The essay prompt is general enough that you’re likely already writing something that works. The rest of the application takes about 15 minutes (assuming you’ve already gathered much of the basic info for your college apps). If you’ve got a confirming SAT/ACT score, then you’re set on that score. Grades matter, but that’s out of your control at this point.
HI. Thanks for all the great details. On the grades, which quarter or semester do they look through — end of junior year, Edna of senior Q1 or end of senior senior semester 1?
Given the timing, I think it could only be through junior year for Finalists. I can’t swear that NMSC doesn’t ask for an update from schools when considering scholarships.
About the first-choice college, do we put any college or have to pick one from the sponsor colleges? When would be the last date to change the college? Thanks!
The scholarship matching process begins March 1. You can change your choice after that date, but you risk being mismatched and losing the opportunity for a scholarship.
You don’t HAVE to choose from among sponsoring colleges, but that means you will only be available for NM and corporate-sponsored awards.
I’m confused about the “Confirming SAT Score”. Does that mean the semi-finalist’s SAT score should also be above the state cut-off for Semi-finalist cutoff? I also thought I read somewhere it only needed to be above the Commended Scholar cutoff? Thanks for your excellent updates, Art and Compass Group. You have been the best source of information about many test-related questions for many years!
The confirming score is set nationally; no, a student does not need to reach the state’s Semifinalist cutoff. NMSC doesn’t come right out and say that the confirming cutoff and the Commended cutoff are the same, but it is true or approximately true. Thank you!
Hello Art,
Is it possible CA cutoff is 221 but not 220?
Thank you.
The CA cutoff is 220. Period.
Nevada has the biggest drop since 2020–from 218 to 210. First, is 210 absolutely confirmed? Second, would it be attributed to low participation or “learning gaps”?
Absolutely confirmed. Small states can see large swings from relatively minor changes, especially when their cutoffs are on the low side because scores tend to be clumped together. Nevada saw 162 NMSFs this year as opposed to 114 last year and 112 the year before. That means the cutoff was probably not that far from being 209! It’s hard to know which of the factors played a role. The number of Semifinalists + Commended Students has remained fairly constant the last 3 years at 220-230. So for some reason there were as many students reaching Commended, but many more getting stuck at just a few points above Commended. I’d say scoring anomalies, learning gaps, and participation rate all could have played a role. Also, all it takes is a few powerhouse schools to drop out to shift things in Nevada. Bottom line: I don’t know.
Thanks for the reply! 162 is a big jump from 114. Does that mean NMSC was targeting Semifinalist count ~114, but there were too few >=211 and a whole lot of 210s?
Or that they are targeting around 130, perhaps, and that some years giver more or less because of how the distribution plays out. It means a lot of 210s. It’s harder to say about 211s because by the time they hit 162, they weren’t even going to take the 163rd.
Art
Since there are only 16000 NMSF each year, if Nevada had 162 with target 130, does that mean the increase was adjusted with other state targets? Did New Jersey meet its target number for NMSF or fewer to adjust variance with other states?
It usually works out to closer to 16,500 or so. I’m not entirely sure, but keep in mind that some schools are going to be a bit above target and some will be a bit below. So it’s not as simple as “this school got more so we need to take them away from other states.” New Jersey was on the low side, presumably because it had a large number of students at 222.
I made the TX cutoff with a 220 and have a confirming SAT score of 221 … any idea what GPA is required to make it to finalist?
No, NMSC does not release a GPA cutoff.
Hi Art,
Do you know how many NMSF’s California had this year?
I don’t know the exact number, but it is generally a bit over 2,000.
Question about the term “cutoff.” Does it mean you must score higher than the number, or equal to/higher than? Asking because my daughter scored 222 in Maryland. Haven’t heard from the school as of yet.
Equal to or higher. Your school may just be waiting.
Hi Art. While they don’t publish the exact GPA cut-off, would you consider 3.8X (unweighted) with no C’s a safe qualifying GPA?
J S,
I just don’t have the data. My recommendation would be to stay positive, assume that it’s sufficient, complete your Finalist app, and then get on with the important job of getting admitted to college!
Hi, is 214 in AZ absolutely confirmed? Thanks!
The cutoffs are correct.
If you had to send an alternate entry of a SAT score due to illness on the day of the PSAT, does that SAT score act also as the confirming SAT score or do you have to retake another SAT? Thank you.
I would check with NMSC on that. I think it came up last year, but I don’t remember where things fell. I want to say that it could serve as the confirming score.
What should we do at this point if our school says they haven’t received anything (not that they can’t won’t say, but that they say they actually haven’t gotten anything) but we met the criteria according to what you posted? Our kid has a 211 in Arkansas. I think our school has never had a National Merit Semi-Finalist (or even commended) before – we had to push them to even offer the PSAT to make this possible.
You can call NMSC and see if they are now able to confirm that you are a Semifinalist. If so, then you (or you and NMSC) will need to work with your school, track down your paperwork, and learn how to submit the Finalist application. You DO the application. But the school has to write the recommendation and SUBMIT the application.
Hi Art,
I know based on the cutoff scores that my son has qualified and, when I asked the principal, she broadly smiled and says she has a letter on her desk, but wants to wait until the pep rally at the end of September to make the announcement. While I think it is sweet that she wants to make a big deal out of it, I am anxious to see the actual confirmation so he can get started on his application. When I searched the National Merit Website, all I could see was a generic press release explaining National Merit. Where can I find a list of names? (Apparently the local media didn’t care about the press release.)
Anonmom,
There are no lists available beyond what NMSC shares with the press (NMSC does not share those lists with the public) and schools. If you are really concerned that your son is not a Semifinalist, you can try calling NMSC. They will usually confirm a name at this point. The essay prompt should be unchanged, so your son can already start preparing his essay. It’s nice to have the letter, but not having it should not pose much of an obstacle.