April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
| State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
| Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
| Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
| California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
| Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
| Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
| Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
| Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
| Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
| Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
| Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
| Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
| Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
| Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
| Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
| Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
| Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
| New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
| Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
| Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
| South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
| Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
| Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
| Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
| Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
| U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Art, My son’s high school PSAT score (entire school) was disqualified due to “confidential irregularities”. Fortunately he was able to use a SAT score to qualify with an alternative entry. He met the semifinalist cutoff. He was told by his school that to apply for the finalist program he needs to take another SAT and have a confirming school that meets the cut off (Texas is 219). I called the National Merit Corp and 2 different staff told me the cut off is 207 (the commanded score). And that since my son use the alternative entry to qualify, he doesn’t need to take another SAT. I emailed the school administrators but they insisted that my son needs to take another SAT meeting the 219 index. What is your thoughts on this?
Thank you Art!!
F,
If I have come across this in the past, the correct answer escapes me. [Congratulations to your son, BTW!] My inclination is to believe NMSC. Would defying the school create tension at a time that your son needs a recommendation? I don’t think that’s a real concern. Since a student can take a confirming test as late as December, I just wouldn’t make a big deal about whether or not your son is sticking with his 219. Yes, I might make a 3rd call to NMSC (unless your son is interested in trying to raise his score. National Merit will use his best result.).
Will a 33 Composite ACT score be enough to validate the 215 PSAT score?
Brenda,
The confirming score threshold is set nationally at an SAT Selection Index of 207. The SI is calculated from an SAT score in the same way that it is from a PSAT score. But what about an ACT score? A 33 Composite can represent a wide range of section scores that would produce different SIs. You can read more about the conversion in our National Merit FAQ (linked in the article). You need to use a concordance table to convert the sum of your English and Reading scores into the SAT sum of Reading and Writing. You then need to convert your ACT Math to SAT Math. Science is ignored. You’ll double the SAT ERW sum and add the SAT Math score to get the Selection Index.
The short answer is that a 33 will almost certainly be high enough.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all of your helpful info! For semi-finalists: How does one find the code number/name for National Merit Scholarship Corp. to send ACT scores? It isn’t available in the choices on ACT’s web page for ordering the sending of scores like all of the other colleges and orgs.
Julie,
It should be code 7984.
Any reason why my child would not yet have received their Commended letter from HS? 211 selection index. Waiting to add this to college Apps and can’t figure out why it hasn’t been provided yet. Should we contact National Merit at this point.
KW,
Commended letter are not mailed to high schools until Semifinalists have been announced. This means that schools may still be receiving the packets. It’s safe to assume that your student was Commended.
My daughter is a Semifinalist with a GPA of 4.0, but she is currently dual-enrolled in 200-level calculus and physics classes in which she is concerned that she might receive grades of B or C. We see that her school is instructed to “notify NMSC of any noticeable decline in your academic performance during the current year.” Her first-choice college offers full-tuition scholarships for Finalists, so she is considering withdrawing from these classes – despite loving them – if it means jeopardizing her chances of becoming a Finalist. Do schools always report senior-year grades to the NMSC or only if there has been a “noticeable decline?” Would receiving B’s or C’s in these two classes constitute “noticeable decline?” Would withdrawing from these classes constitute “noticeable decline?” Thank you for all the helpful information you share with this community.
Katie,
The circumstances are so specific and the implications so important, that I hesitate to give definitive advice. I’d normally hate to see National Merit drive course selection, but when a student’s first choice offers full-tuition scholarships, there is a lot riding on these decisions. My understanding is that schools are not obligated to send mid-year reports. If you are only worried about year end grades, the decisions have already been finalized by then. It’s hard to get accurate information in confidence in this situation. You may need to discuss the situation with your daughter’s college counselor. You could also heck anonymously with National Merit, but they may not be able to speak to the situation. Best of luck to your daughter! And I’m rooting for A’s in those courses.
Hi Art,
The selection index for ACT is not based off the composite score right? Or can it be? Also 35 individual tests but composite score 36 will qualify for the index I suppose. Students can update the college choice anytime before Mar 1 . Do the colleges listed for offering scholarships imply they offer full ride scholarships, Art ?
Thank you
MaryAnn
The selection index derived from the ACT is not based off the composite score. Instead, the ACT M is converted to SAT M and ACT Eng and Reading are converted to SAT ERW. ACT Science is not used at all. We have more information and links to the conversion tables in our FAQ.
Most colleges that participate in National Merit offer more limited scholarships of $2,500 or $2,500 per year. In fact, full-ride scholarships fall in a gray area. NMSC does not administer them. It’s up to the colleges to decide if they want to make additional scholarship opportunities available outside of the official NMSC program. You’ll need to research those on your own and contact them to see if they have any special deadlines or requirements.
Thank you so much
Good day Art. Thank you for all your service and help.
Had a quick question – We missed the osa deadline today and got an extension. This should not affect the finalist decisions I believe. Is that right? Thank you Ty
Ty,
No, it will not affect selection in the slightest.
Hi Art – Does the college major and career codes play a role in the selection by colleges that offer full-ride for the finalists. Is that information available somewhere.
I have never heard of the codes being used in that manner.
Thank you so much as always!
Can you confirm the “commended” cutoff you published of 207? I have a child who scored above that but has been told she did not receive “commended” status by her school. I’d like to find out where the disconnect is.
Hi Tim,
The Commended cutoff is confirmed at 207. It’s possible the school meant your daughter did not qualify as a Semifinalist.
Art, Thanks for all this information. Is there a listing from NMSC about which states are in which regions for the boarding school groupings (which use highest state in region for cutoff instead of state in which the school is)? Thanks!
Summer,
NMSC has a tendency to be circumspect about even the most straightforward of things. I don’t know of a place that it lists the boarding school groups. If you find one, please let me know!
Art,
Hello. Thank you for your great answers on all things PSAT. I have a student who was ill on PSAT day this October, 2022. She has already been approved to apply for National Merit via Alternate Entry. What sort of SAT score does she need to achieve for National Merit in Oklahoma? Since the two tests are scored differently, how can she know what her target score should be relative to the PSAT? For example, if the cutoff is 211, does she need the equivalent (say a 1460) on the SAT? Say 760 on CR/W and 700 math? Just to throw around some numbers…And can she take the SAT multiple times to try to achieve this?
Thank you,
Andrea
Andrea,
I’m sorry that your daughter was ill. First, she is able to take the SAT multiple times for Alternate Entry. National Merit will use her best score but will not superscore.
Oklahoma’s cutoff has been 210 or 211 the last 3 years, but it has gone as high as 216. We don’t yet have data on the performance from this year’s exam.
Calculating the cutoff with SAT scores is the same as for PSAT scores, but we have to be careful about the upper limits. The most familiar scores are 200-800 (160-760 on the PSAT), but each section has a 10-40 (8-38) score. It’s those section scores that need to be used from the SAT. And because the PSAT scores do not go above 38, the SAT scores must be trimmed at 38. This is all getting confusing, so let me give a couple examples: (1) Your daughter gets 36 Reading, 35 Writing, and 39 Math (710 ERW 780 Math). On the PSAT, those section scores are summed and doubled to get the Selection Index. But the 39 is outside the PSAT range, so it needs to be trimmed. The Selection Index would be (36 + 35 + 38) * 2 = 218. (2) Your daughter scores 40, 31, and 37 (710 / 740). Her Selection Index would be (38 + 31 + 37) * 2 = 212.
Good luck!
Hello. I am a North Carolina Junior that took the October 2022 PSAT. I scored 1460(our school received our PSAT scores early on Naviance). Math – 37.5; Reading – 35; Writing – 36. I calculated my index score and it was 217, meaning I would have qualified for the class of 2023. However, I am class of 2024. Based on trends for North Carolina, how likely is it that I will qualify as a semifinalist?
Shivsai,
We have recently had 4 years that I consider “low years,” where Commended levels fell at 209 or lower. In two of those low years North Carolina’s cutoffs were 218. In two of those years North Carolina’s cutoffs were 217. There is just not enough to go on. You probably have a 50% chance and will need to wait until September to get the final answer.
Can’t believe I’m back here. DS22 was a NMF with a 221 from NY. We felt it was enough but thought perhaps a 222 might pop up, and so we waited and I checked this site A LOT. DS24 just got a 220 and I feel like we’re in a touch worse of a boat. It SHOULD be enough, particularly given decreasing scores in general, but we’ll have to wait for confirmation, and more checking of this site. My question is – DS24’s school offered the PSAT NMSQT on the alternate date (not the make up date, the alternative date 10/25/22). I was a little upset about that, thinking the curve might be different – that perhaps the group of students taking the alternative date is different somehow from the main date. Do you have any thoughts on this? The ship has obviously sailed for my son, but I’d like to go to our District and request that they offer the first date going forward. At the very least, it allows for a make up date.
Welcome back, Toby. PSATs (and SATs) are scaled in advance based on the results of research on prior administrations. That equating process is meant to ensure that tests are equivalent. As I said in my article, it doesn’t always work out that way. But I don’t have any evidence that the alternate dates are more likely to be wonky than the primary administration.
As you say, 220 should be enough in a year of low scores (we’ll know more in April with the Commended level), but it is going to be a wait to September. You know where to find me!
Hello from Florida,
My son’s score just came out today (1370) (detailed score report not yet available). What is the likely hood that he will be a commended scholar? Also, he just recently took the SAT and scored a 1440. Can he use that instead to qualify for National Merit? Thank you.
Tammy,
Students who take the PSAT cannot use an SAT score for National Merit entry. You may need to wait another day to get the individual ERW and Math scores that make up the 1370. He may be on the cusp depending on how those scores shake out. Double the ERW, add the Math, and drop a zero. For example, a 680 ERW and 690 M gives an SI of 68×2 + 69 = 205. I estimate that the Commended level will fall between 206 and 209.
Where do you get the Class of 2024 info on # of students and that 3% have 1400 or better? I’ve been looking through old data sets for comparisons from year to year but do not see this new info. Also, is there anyway to extrapolate what it means when your PSAT score goes up but selection index goes down as far as predicting cutoffs?
Brad,
That information is proprietary.
I am assuming that you are referring to your PSAT score going up from Sophomore year. If so, nothing can be extracted from that. The Selection Index is simply a constant formula that does not change based on the performance of others. If your SI went down, it’s likely because your ERW score (which is doubled) went down but your Math score went up.
Love your site and info. How accurate have your predictions been of the # of students, % scoring above 1400, and state-by-state cutoffs? Granted, Covid has thrown things off a bit.
Brad,
I can’t go into methods and sources too much. State-by-state cutoffs are estimates based on PSAT performance numbers nationally and historical performance. I expect 90-95% of state cutoffs to fall within the listed ranges unless we see a crazy year.
Hi Art,
Are the cutoff estimations for semifinalists published above based on the latest PSAT/NMSQT (class 2024)? My daughter just got his index score (217, Colorado), and I am wondering if she has a chance to qualify for semifinalist or when we are going to know for sure.
Claudia,
NMSC does not announce Semifinalists until September 2023. The current estimates provided by Compass are based on the historical numbers and the research Compass has done.
My son appeared for PSAT/NMSQT in Nov 22 and his NMSQT index is 221. We are in Buffalo NY. How likely he would be among the semi finalists?
Sreyasee,
We haven’t seen a year when New York has gone over 221, so I’d say that he has an excellent chance of qualifying.
Hi Art, thanks for your service. We are in Delaware and my daughter got 220. Will she qualify for 2024? Thanks for your help
Josh,
Delaware is a competitive state, but in the 4 “low years” I have identified as similar to this year, Delaware did not go above 220 and went as low as 218. Delaware has had a 221 in the past, but it came in a year when scores were higher across the board. Your daughter has a very good chance.
My daughter received 221 in NJ. What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? Thanks 🙏
Sweetfairy,
We have to go back to the class of 2013 to find the last time a 221 qualified as NMSF in New Jersey, which almost always has the highest cutoffs in the country.
Does a 218 for Oregon qualify for semifinalist? Also, what was the cutoff for the semifinalist for Oregon last year? Was it 216 for commended or semifinalist last year?
Dave,
The Semifinalist cutoff last year was 216. The Commended cutoff is a national figure and was 207.
Hi Art! My daughter (class of 2024) got her score today and did well, but in a tough state to make the cutoff. (She’ll likely end up as commended.) Is there really no way to know before September what the cutoffs will be? I can’t believe they make the students wait almost a year– shouldn’t it be easy for them to determine top 99th percentile in each state right away? Or at least an overall idea of how the scores look so we know if the cutoffs are likely to be lower than predicted this year? Thanks for your insights.
Jen,
There really is no way — with one exception. The Commended cutoff usually leaks in April, because National Merit needs to contact schools to confirm eligibility for all honorees. NMSF cutoffs have never come out before late August. Once the Commended cutoff is confirmed, we can at least be confident that we are in a “low year.” We might see 10-15 states with lower cutoffs than last year, but only in the smallest would we expect to see a wide swing.
It’s very frustrating. Despite the changes in testing and technology, NMSC uses the same calendar it used 60 years ago. There are some reasons. Not all PSAT takers are eligible. Also, NMSC allows students who missed the PSAT to enter via Alternate Entry with SAT scores. And the organization is busy right now with Finalist decisions and then scholarship matching. It finally gets around to the class of 2024 in April. By the time it confirms eligibility, it is summer, and NMSC always works through the schools. And that’s how we end up in September!
Hello Art,
I live in Michigan and got 218 index. What are my chances?
Jeff,
In each of the 4 years where we have seen a Commended cutoff under 210, Michigan has come in at 2018 or less. However, it did have a run of 219s in the classes of 2018 – 2020. I think we are in another low year, so I like your chances. We can’t say that it is a sure thing, however.
My daughter received 218 in the state of Oregon. What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? She appeared for PSAT Oct 15, 2022 and she is in class of 2024. Thank you!
I tried to post three messages before but they keep getting deleted. I think I accidentally entered wrong email address first two times. Hopefully someone can look at this fourth message and respond to it.
Ron,
In order to reduce spam, our comments are moderated. We usually don’t approve posts until we have an answer ready. Here is yours! Your daughter is in good shape with her 218, but Semifinalist is by no means assured. Oregon has gone as high as 221 and as low as 216. The class of 2021 saw a 220 cutoff, but that was driven by the large number of test cancelations and the high number of Alternate Entry candidates. I think this year will look more similar to last year. Better than even odds, but not as high as 90%.
What are the chances for someone with 221 in California?
CG,
I like your chances. There is an outside possibility that CA would move to 222, but I think it’s more likely to be at 220 or 221. Still, it’s close enough that you’ll really need to wait until announcements in September.
Hi Art,
My son got 222 in CA from PSAT October 2022. What are his chances to qualify for semi finalist for 2024.
Thanks for your help.
Madhavi,
He is highly likely to qualify as a Semifinalist. Realistically, I don’t see CA going above 222 without some 100-year flood event.
Thanks for answering the questions. This is awesome resource.