Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Thanks for all the great information, Art! Any thoughts on a 218 in CO qualifying as a semifinalist for 2024?
Robert,
I divide the last 7 years into 3 high years and 4 low years when we look at trends across the county. In low years — and I think this is one — we’ve seen cutoffs of 217 and 218. In the high years, we’ve seen cutoffs of 220 and 221 in Colorado. So as long as this year plays out as low year, you are in good shape.
My daughter received 219 in Illinois . What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? Thanks
Sarah,
Her chances depend on whether or not we see low scores consistently across the country. My research shows that we are likely to. In the 4 years with Commended levels under 210, Illinois’ cutoff has never gone above 219. In high years, the cutoff moved to 221. I’d peg your daughter’s chances as at least 2 out of 3, but it is close enough that she’ll need to wait until September to really know.
According to my calculations, my daughter got a 226 (760 verbal, 740 math). We are in Georgia. It looks like she qualifies to move forward. She took the SAT in May 2022 as a sophomore and received a 1430 (ACT 34 in June 2022). When will she know if that score is high enough for further National Merit consideration or if she should try to take the SAT again as a junior?
Lauren,
Congratulations to your daughter! Generally the confirming score is set as the Commended cutoff. So you calculate a Selection Index from the SAT score and want it to be over 212 (to be safe). You can also convert an ACT score to a Selection Index, but you’ll want to read our FAQ for full instructions. A 34 is almost certainly high enough (the Science is ignored, btw).
Hello Art,
What do you think the odds look like for a 218 in Kansas to become a semi-finalist? I’ve seen Kansas go above, but that was some time ago.
Mike,
We’ve only seen the cutoff in Kansas hit 219 once in the last 7 years and, crucially, that was a year where scores trended high across the country. My research shows that we are in a “low year,” so I think there is a very good chance that a 218 qualifies in KS.
Hi, my daughter got a 213 index for Louisiana. What do you think her chances are? Is it likely that the index cutoff will go up to 214/215? Thank you!
Molly,
In years where scores have trended low across the country, Louisiana has had cutoffs of 212, 213, 213, and 214. During high years, the cutoff has been as high as 219. While I believe the evidence strongly points to another low year, we can’t be certain that LA will stay at 213. I’d put your daughter’s chances somewhere between 50 and 75%.
Hi. Do you think that there is a good chance that Louisiana will stay at 213, drop, or go higher? Also, when will there be more information to update the predictions based on research or things that come out?
Haley,
I think the most likely case is a 213, but I would not be surprised by a 212 or 214. We saw a 212 as recently as the class of 2021. Louisiana has gone as high as 217, but that was in a year when scores were high across the country.
I have extracted most of the information I can from the PSAT data. National Merit is always tight-lipped about what it releases. The next major news is when we get a leak of the Commended cutoff. That usually occurs in April.
We are in CA, PSAT 224, SAT 227.5… Can you please be so kind letting me know if my son has a chance for semi finalist? Thank you so much!
MCG,
A 224 Selection Index will absolutely qualify in CA (or in any other state). Congratulations to your son! The SAT score will only matter as a requirement for Finalist selection. That score is also high enough. As far as National Merit is concerned, your son’s testing is done.
My son in CA received 1490 PSAT, with 222 NMSQT selection index. We’re worried about missing the selection index by only 1 (which would be a massive shame). Any thoughts on what may happen?
Kang,
While I can’t say that a 223 cutoff in CA could never happen (it did in the class of 2019), it would be extremely unlikely this year. Everything I’ve seen points to another year of low to modest cutoffs. It would be shocking if CA jumped 3 points (it never has).
Art,
Thank you so much for considering these questions. My son got a 222 in Nevada.
Congratulations to your son! He can sleep easily for the next 10 months.
Hey Art,
Thank you for providing this wonderful resource for NMSQT selection indices! How do you estimate when a year is low vs. high?
Emily
Emily,
Since the introduction of the new PSAT, there have been 7 classes, and they have fallen into two pools. There have been 3 years with over 60,000 1400-1520 scorers where the Commended cutoff is above 210 (“high year”) and 4 years with under 60,000 high scorers and Commended cutoffs below 210 (“low years”). From what I have seen of the College Board data, we are in a low year. In high years the average Semifinalist cutoff is 218. It is 215 in low years. Trends are not always nationwide, so individual states can move against the grain.
Hi Art,
Thanks for your diligent work in compiling this information! Will a 218 index score in MN be enough to qualify for being a semifinalist?
Luke,
I think a 218 in MN falls in the “more likely than not category.” I’d put it in the 50-75% range.
Appreciate this site! In Tennessee…my child scored an index of 216. The past few years has been a consistent 215 cutoff. *If* that number holds steady, would that mean (s)he’s commended or semifinalist or not necessarily either? Thank you!
Kelly,
Everyone at or above the cutoff (as long as they are eligible) qualifies as a Semifinalist. If things hold steady — or even go up a point — your student will qualify. If the cutoff in TN goes to 217, then your child would be a Commended student.
What are the odds of becoming a semi-finalist w/ a 217 in PA?
VN,
We’ve seen PA at 217 5 times in the last 15 years and I am confident that we are going to see low-ish scores across the board. I think 218 may be more likely, but there is still a chance with 217.
Hey Mr. Sawer,
I am in Texas and I got a 223 nmsqt score. For texas, I see the range is from 218 – 221. Am I completely safe? Or is there a chance that I will get knocked out?
You are completely safe. Congratulations!
Hi, we live in CA, my daughter got 220. Do you think she will be able to make the semi-finalist round? Thanks!
Vicki,
California surprised me a bit with its decline to 220. Maybe it should not have because there has been a general decline in test taking with the UCs now test free. I think 220 has a slightly better chance than 221 this year.
Hi Art!
Great article and research. Thoughts to an Ohio 215 for my child? Any chance they dip one point from last years 216 cutoff ?
Thanks!
We know a 215 is possible since that’s where it was for the classes of 2021 and 2022. Let’s hope that it moves back in that direction.
My daughter got 217 in Kansas. We are not very sure about her NMSF…still worrying…
Janet,
It’s not 100% given that Kansas has seen cutoffs of 218 and 219, but with the numbers indicating low cutoffs nationwide this year, your daughter’s chances are excellent.
Hi, My daughter received 219 in Texas. What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? Thanks
Ratnaker,
I think there is a 50-75% chance that Texas will stay at 219 or lower.
Hi,
I received a 219 in TX. I’m really worried i will miss it by one point. Can you be honest and tell me my chances of getting 219 or lower as the cutoff in texas?
A,
Being honest, I think it is a toss-up. In the 4 years that we have seen a lower number of students getting 1400-1520 scores, twice TX has come in at 220 and twice at 219. I’d say that it’s good news that it came in at 219 last year.
What do you think the chances of making National Merit are with 215 index in Alabama?
Grace,
I think a 215 will qualify in Alabama. We’ve only seen a 216 in years where all of the cutoffs are quite high. This will not be that kind of year.
Thank you very much for all these information. Any comment on 1480 i.e. 221 in Maryland.? Last year it was 222. Do you see any possibility of low cutoff this year?
SR,
Maryland is something of a peculiar case. If we look at the 4 years where Commended cutoffs fell below 210, we find 2 years with 221, last year’s 222, and the 224 from two years ago. The class of 2022 figure really needs to be thrown out. Almost all PSATs were canceled in Maryland that year, and most students entered with SAT scores, instead. At worst, we can say that Maryland’s cutoff has been 221 in half of the low years. So, yes, I do think it is a legitimate possibility that the MD cutoff drops to 221.
Why the cutoff is different in different states.? If we call it National Merit Test, then cutoff should be same for all states. Otherwise, it should be called State level merit scholarship test.
SR,
Yes, this is a common complaint. One thing to consider is that, on a practical level, certain states — especially those with high PSAT-taking numbers — would dominate the Semifinalist counts and it would be harder for NMSC to appeal to the corporations and colleges that support it.
Hello Art, My kid has a composite PSAT score of 207. His ERW is 97%, math 99%. Would that mean he has a great chance to become a commended? Thanks.
Jean,
It seems like percentiles should be perfect for making these sorts of judgments. Turns out that they are pretty much useless given the way that College Board reports them. The two biggest problems are that (1) they are not actually based on this year’s students (they are based on the 3 years prior to this year) and (2) the numbers you cited are the Nationally-Representative Percentiles. That means that they are based on a hypothetical group of all juniors in the country and not just test takers. With that aside, I think there is a good chance of 207 remaining the Commended cutoff this year. The scoring data I have seen from College Board aligns closely. There remains a possibility that it bumps up to 208. We usually find out the Commended cutoff in April.
Thank you so much Art! I didn’t know how they calculated about the percentiles. It is what it is. I am still very happy for my kid!
Hey Art! Thanks for all this great information! My son from Oregon got a selection score of 218, right at your prediction for this year. What do you think the chances are that a 218 from Oregon will qualify to semifinalist standing?
Jason,
Pardon me if I am sounding like a broken record, but what I have been looking at in these situations is how states perform in “low years,” when the number of high scorers is below 60,000 versus “high years,” when more than 60,000 get 1400-1520 scores. Oregon saw cutoffs of 217, 218, 218, and 218 in the 4 low years for which I have data. In the 3 high years, it saw cutoffs of 219, 219, and 220. I am fairly confident we are in a low year. That said, it does not take much to move a state’s cutoff. I would put the chances in the 75% range.
This is such helpful page, Art! Our son received a 223 in Indiana. From what I’ve read here, this should qualify as a semi-finalist? What do you think. Thank you!
Congratulations to your son, Catherine! He will be a Semifinalist.
My daughter got 210 in utah, is there any chance for NMS
AK,
It’s unlikely that Utah’s Semifinalist cutoff will move to 210. More likely is that she will be named a Commended Student.