Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Thank you for this great article during a time of so many questions and a lengthy timeline of waiting! Our son is at 216 in Kansas….chances??
The 216 falls in the 50-75% range, I think. It’s been high enough the last 3 years, but it would have fallen short the 3 years before that. I think continuing the current streak is more likely.
Hello, my son received an index score of 225 and with actual PSAT score of1500 in FL. Does he qualify for national merit scholarship and what kind do you think if he does? Thank you.
Gina,
The National Merit competition proceeds in several stages. Your son’s score will make him a Semifinalist and eligible to apply for the next stage. In order to become a Finalist, he’ll fill out an application (next September). He’ll need a strong SAT score (which he already has), extremely strong grades (no hard cutoff is given), and the recommendation of his school. About 15,000 Semifinalists out of 16,000 become Finalists. Then Finalists are considered for scholarships. You can read more about that on our FAQ.
May I ask a follow-up question regarding the Semifinalist process? My homeschooled junior just scored 1470 with a SI of 219 in Kansas. If he is a Semifinalist and proceeds to the next steps (strong SAT, strong grades, etc), what does National Merit accept alternatively for the recommendation of his school? Thank you for this very helpful article!
Amy,
A 219 will qualify (congratulations!), so it’s correct to look ahead to the next stage. NMSC *really* wants a recommendation from a non-parent who has insight into the student’s academic performance. In some cases, that’s just not possible. It’s best to discuss your situation with NMSC. This won’t matter until next October, so you have plenty of time!
Hello. Do you see the cutoff moving much in VA from 221? My son received a 221 and I was wondering what his chances were to be a semifinalist.
Markel,
It’s not likely to move more than a point in either direction. Given how closely the national numbers are tracking last year’s, I like the chances of 221.
Would a 211 in Arkansas look promising for NM? What do you think is the situation of AR (since it is a lower cutoff state)?
Also, do we have to get higher than the cutoff for NM, or can we equal it and still get NM?
CJ,
As long as your score is equal to the cutoff or higher, you will qualify. It’s not a given, but I think 211 looks promising. As a small state, Arkansas sees a lot of fluctuation. It’s had as high as 215 and as low as 209 in the last decade.
Thank you; this is very helpful! What are the chances of the MO semifinalist cutoff being above 214?
Janelle,
In the 4 years that I consider the closest analogues (nationally, at least), a 214 qualified in Missouri 3 times. I think 1/4 sounds about right for MO going to 215 or above.
Hi Art, Thank you for the informative article. My daughter scored a 1370, at 99 percentile, which I assumed meant she scored in the top 1%. How can this be if 3% scored 1400+? Am I misreading what the 99 percentile means? Thanks!
Ann M,
It’s not you. College Board does an abysmal job at presenting percentiles. The one you are seeing is based on a “nationally representative sample.” That means it is an estimate of what the percentile would be if EVERY student in the U.S. took the exam. The actual PSAT takers are more likely to be on a college track. If you drill deeper into the report you’ll find a “User Percentile.” That’s based on actual test takers from the 2019, 2020, and 2021 PSATs. A 1370 is the 95th percentile on that metric.
Daughter scored 210 in Oklahoma. Looks she’ll be a point or two shy. Thoughts?
Oklahoma is usually within 3 or 4 points of the Commended level, so we will know more in April when that leaks. Good luck!
My daughter received a 218 score in NY and I know last year was 219. Is there essentially no likelihood that she could be a semifinalist? What a shame when you are literally one point away!!
J,
It’s possible, but 219 was a 10-year low for New York. As we see every year, though, 1-point shifts are common.
What do you think the chances are of commended cutoff being 206?
Ann,
While I think 207 and 208 are more likely, I don’t think we can exclude 206. I do think it’s fairly unlikely given that we didn’t see the cutoff drop below 207 even for the class of 2022.
Hey Art. I got a selection index score of 215 in Michigan. What do you think are my chances of qualifying as a semifinalist? Thanks so much!
Ethan,
Once Michigan switched from having students take the ACT to having them take the SAT, the state’s cutoff surged. It hasn’t been below 216 since that time. We are in weird times, so just about anything is possible.
A Student from Illinois got perfect score on math and ERW 710 i.e., total score 1470 (SI 218) will they qualify for semifinalist. Thanks for the reply!
Ann,
It will be tight. In the 4 years I look to as indicative of “low years,” Illinois had a 218 cutoff in 1 of them. So we know it can happen.
would 214 in NJ be a commended scholar.TY!
Vidia,
Yes, it will be Commended.
Score of 222 in California. What is the likelihood of semifinalist? Thank you for all you do! Appreciate it.
Kelly,
I’m confident that you will qualify. Congratulations!
Art, thanks for the great info. What are your thoughts on an index of 217 in Colorado? What is the probability of making semifinalist? Is CO considered a relatively stable state in terms of PSAT scores historically?
Jen,
Colorado has been stable once you account for the national shifts from high years and low. If I look at the 4 low years, CO has had cutoffs of 217, 217, 217, and 218. For high years, the cutoffs were 220, 220, 221. So the risks for you are (1) I am wrong about it being a low year and (2) that CO skews toward 218 or 219. I’d put yours odds at 50-75%.
Thank you for this information! Is the Commended cutoff a national one or is that also determined by each state? And, if scores were lower this year, any chance the Commended cutoff could be 206 (rather than the “likely 207”?
Cat,
It’s possible. The fact that the Commended level didn’t go beneath 207 even in the pandemic class of 2022, though, makes me think it is less likely than 207 or 208.
My daughter received a 219 in OK. What are her Semifinalist chances?
DP,
She is a lock for Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi Art, thank you very much for the information. My son is in MN and got 213, any chance of qualifying as a semifinalist?
Lo,
I don’t believe MN’s cutoff will go as low as 213 this year.
Thank you so much Mr. Art for the great information and answering all with wonderful patience and empathy! My Son got 1470 PSAT and 221 Index from Virginia. His SAT is 1590. How are the chances for NMSC?
Sheri,
Wow! His 1590 will be great for colleges, but it doesn’t come into play for NM unless and until he is named a Semifinalist. I think his chances are good. A 222 in VA would be unusual in a year when so few students seem to have earned top scores.
Hi Art, Very informative article. Thank you very much for sharing your insights. For the Commended cutoff (207), your analysis is based on how many students in the class of 2024 receive scores of 1400 or higher (under 45,000). It makes a lot of sense. For the Semifinalist cut-offs, do you have any state-specific data to do a similar analysis for each state?
Jen,
No, College Board does not release state data until next October. Even then, the 1400-1520 data is not as helpful for states where the cutoffs are well above 210.
Hi Art,
My son got a 216 in Minnesota. Do you think the cut off will likely increase or stay the same?
KMS,
I don’t have any information on MN performance this year, so I can only go by what we are seeing nationally and by MN’s history. The 216 was somewhat of an outlier last year. I think there is at least a 50% chance that it will tick back up.
Hi Art
Thank for this great article. My daughter in CA scored 1480( Index score 221 ) . Based on your analysis and replies . It seems like she has good chance to become semifinalist. However, my question is regarding finals. For some reason her SAT score is 1460 ( Below part for 1480 psat score) Does this low score effect her chances in Finals?
AFU,
As a requirement for Finalist, students must receive a “confirming score.” While that sounds intimidating, it actually means that they must have an SAT score (or SAT Selection Index, more accurately) at the national Commended level. Your daughter’s SAT score is high enough. Getting a higher score does not increase her chances.
Thanks. Appreciate all that you do for many of us.
My son did very well last year as a Sophomore, he scored 1500, index score of 23 in Texas last year. Unfortunately, he did not do as well this year as a Junior. He scored 1470, index score of 218. I there any way he can retake the test in Spring?
Minh,
Unfortunately, only the fall PSAT/NMSQT can be used for National Merit. Let’s hope we see Texas drop.
Hi Art,
I am in California. My daughter got a 219. I am wondering what you think the odds are of 219’s making the cut in Cali this year.
Thank you for sharing this article. It is very helpful!
Mark
Mark,
If I were laying odds — and I guess I am — my unscientific opinion would be 25% 219, 50% 220, 25% 221.
Is it possible for 218 to qualify in CA this year?
Jen,
It would be highly unusual for California to drop 2 points from what was already a low cutoff, but I don’t think we can completely rule it out given California’s retrenchment from testing.
Hi! What are the chances of 213 in WI qualifying for semifinalist? Is there any particular reason why you had it jumping from 213 to 214 this year?
Lucie,
It was somewhat arbitrary. I looked at the average cutoff for the 4 low years in the state and then compared them to the most recent 2 cutoffs. WI’s average was 213.75, so a bit closer to the 214 for the class of 2022. I’m always hoping my estimates are too high, though!
Quick question…Given that you have access to all the scores already, is the main uncertainty for predicting the cutoffs merely how many students will be chosen from each state? Since you don’t know that number, I assume your ranges are based on a combination of current-year scores and the number of students selected in previous years? Thanks
Cal,
That’s right. Just because we know the national performance does not mean we know how many students took the test in each state and what the score distributions look like. There can even be the same number of high scorers but a slight blip between the number of 215s and 216s, let’s say. My estimates and ranges are based on the national picture combined with the historical cutoffs. They are, in the end, educated guesses.
What is the chance of 220 becoming a semifinalist in MA? Thanks!
Johnny,
I think it is about 50/50. MA’s cutoff, even during “low years” has bounced between 220, 221, and 222.