April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi! Thanks for this great article. I just need a quick clarification. If a cut-off for semi-finalists is, say, 221, does that mean that 222 and above qualify, or 221 and above qualify?
Lizzie,
It means 221 and above qualify.
Thank you for this informative article! Any chance a 218 can qualify as a semifinalist in Georgia? Would appreciate the rationale for moving the cutoff estimate up one point to 219 from 218 last year?
Andy,
In a year where the national numbers look so similar to last year’s numbers, there is clearly an argument that most cutoffs will remain the same. So 218 is a good possibility. Why did I go with 219? I looked at the 4 years in the last 7 that are “low years.” Georgia’s cutoff was 219 in 3 of those years. That was my rationale, but I always recommend students reflect on the potential range.
Hi,
What is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 221 in California?
Also, once a student is qualified, does a student with lower index will automatically have lesser chance to be finalist compare to someone with higher index? Or the index doesn’t matter anymore once you are qualified as semifinalist?
Thank you
Prin,
I’d say that it is a a 75-90% likelihood. I don’t think California will go up by 2 points this year. The cutoff is a qualifying number and does not change one’s chances of being named a Finalist.
Art, thank you for the clear explanation. My daughter attends international school overseas and should be in the “study abroad” group, aka, the highest national cut-off line. She got 222 (1490). Are we still looking at MD, NJ and DC this year? Any more information sharing for this special group? thank you!
SG,
As goes NJ, so goes the overseas selection unit. No, I don’t have any insight into what is going to happen in NJ this year. Good luck!
After reading all of the comments, it seems like a 218 in Florida is very likely for NM. Thank you for all of this information.
Christa,
You are correct. I don’t see how Florida could bounce to 219.
Hi Mr.Sawyer, My scored high on English but did bad on Math. Her PSAT index is 208. Does commended cutoff only look at index not the actual past score? Thanks
Tammy,
National Merit only looks at the Selection Index.
Hi! I’m an Ohio junior with a selection index score of 220. What do you think my chances of making it to the semifinalist level are?
Asunator,
You will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
CT Junior here with index score of 222. What’s the chance CT cut off will go up more than 2 points this year?
Liana,
No chance that CT will go to 223 this year. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
For some reason , user can not see older comment. We can only see the last reply to Asunator. Clicking on “Older Comment” also doesnt do anything.
I am curious to read your response to my query but I cant get to ti.
AFU,
It’s a bug with our website software. If you right click on Older Comments and open in a new tab, you should be able to navigate to previous comments. Oh, and I just answered your original question!
Hi Art, My daughter is a junior in CA, with selection index score of 221. She may qualify for the selection. Do you know when she need to take SAT exam to be consider? Thank you!
Amy,
Technically she has until Dec 2023 to take the SAT for Finalist consideration, but I would never recommend waiting that long! She can also take the ACT if she prefers.
Hi. I have a selection index score of 221 in Georgia. What do you think my chance of become a semifinalist is?
Joseph,
100%. Congratulations!
Hi!
I got a 219 in Texas. Should I be an NMSQT Semifinalist? Is this prediction certified?
Anon,
I think it is likely a toss-up between 219 and 220. I am not affiliated with National Merit, so this is not at all certified. Semifinalists won’t be announced until September 2023.
Daughter in Ohio with index of 208. Odds of getting Commended?
Thank you so much for this wonderful resource.
Thomas,
There is a chance that we see a Commended mark of 209, but I think your daughter’s chances are in the 80+% range.
Hi – my daughter is a Florida junior with an index score of 218, has the index score been set for 2024? I see the chart shows range and most likely. Thanks!
Lili,
These are only my estimates, and I am not affiliated with National Merit. The official announcements will not be made until September 2023. Very unofficially, I can say that there is zero chance that Florida’s cutoff will be above 218 this year.
Hi!
I got a 222 but live in NJ. Do you think I still have a chance of being a semi-finalist?
Nina,
I do think you have a chance. In the 4 years that I consider low years nationally, NJ has come in at 222 in 3 of them. It’s something of a toss-up.
Any updates or ideas on if scores are likely to drop of go up for louisiana? or are you thinking 213?
Maddie,
No new updates. My most likely for LA is 213.
Hi Art,
Thanks so much for your helpful blog posts! My son has a selection index of 218 and is in Colorado. Do you think it’s possible that the cutoff could increase to 219, or can we safely assume that he will be named a NMSF in Sept.?
Your son has a good chance at being named a Semifinalist. Unfortunately, his score is not high enough where he can be considered safe. Best of luck next summer!
My son took the PSAT as a sophomore with a score of 211. Unfortunately his score dropped this year to a 206…and he is looking at a school which gives full tuition for a commended scholar. That’s a hard one to take when just a couple questions could have made the difference.
Laura,
It’s a lot of pressure for a single test on a single day. Let’s hope that the Commended level declines just a bit more.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
With a 216 and in 99 percentile in GA, will my child has any chance to be named Commended Students by NMSC. Thank you!
Annie
Annie,
Your student’s score may fall a bit short of the Semifinalist cutoff, but is high enough that your student will receive Commended honors.
Very interesting article. Given your suggestion to use the “range” as an indicator for semi-finalist cutoff, a score of 222 in Texas has a fairly good chance. In your opinion, will that score make the “finalist” list?
Kevin,
Thank you for thinking in terms of ranges! There is no chance that a 223 falls within Texas’s range. A 222 will achieve Semifinalist honors. Finalist is a different stage in the competition and does not involve the Selection Index. Instead, Semifinalists submit an application, including an essay. NMSC considers your grades and school recommendation. You must also obtain a “confirming” SAT or ACT score, which basically means a score at around the level of the Commended cutoff (about 1400).
Hi,
For Illinois, my stuent has a 218 selection index. What is the likelihood of qualifying as national merit semi-finalist from Illinois? Since Illinois selection index did go up by 1 point for class of 2023 – do you think that upward trend will continue for class of 2024? Also does having a 99th percentile in both Reading/Writing and Math play a role in what the national merit semi-finalist qualifying selection index will be for Illinois?
Sang,
We can’t call a 1-year change a trend. There is a chance that Illinois’ cutoff will drop back to 218. No, the percentiles do not provide insight, unfortunately. They are based on previous years data and are estimates of a percentile rank if every junior in the country took the PSAT. We won’t know how IL students actually performed until later Aug/early September.
My child also scored a 218 in IL. I see your predicted cutoff is 219… would you put 218 as a slim chance, or more like 25-30%. Just trying to manage his expectations. Thank you so much for your thoughts!
Julie,
A 1-point drop would not be unusual, so I think it’s closer to 25-30% than it is to “slim.”
My son got 226 (Delaware), he says it does not guarantee any thing beyond becoming a semifinalist, is that true?
Steven,
Congratulations to your son! He is correct. The Finalist stage is completely separate and depends on grades, a confirming score on the SAT or ACT (just getting an SAT score at around the Commended level), and a recommendation from his school. He will also submit an essay. Most Semifinalists become Finalists.
Thanks for the information, appreciate that. So a selected semifinalist student should get equal or more SAT score than raw score of PSAT to remain competitive in next step?
More than the Commended Selection Index, which will probably be around 207-209. I’d recommend at least a 1400.
Hi,
Thank you for such an informative article! My child received a score of 209 in New Mexico. Do you think that will be commended or semi-finalist?
New Mexico’s most recent cutoffs have been 210 and 208, so it is definitely possible that your student is named a Semifinalist. Your student should at least be named Commended.
Hey Art,
I have kind of a double situation. One of my children lives in alabama and got a 220 index and the other lives in Louisiana and got a 212. Any insight or opinions on national merit for them? thanks
Grace,
Your student in Alabama will qualify as a Semifinalist next September. It’s going to be a waiting game for your student in LA. While Louisiana’s cutoff has gone as low as 212 (most recently in the class of 2021), it’s cutoff usually falls higher than that.
Hello! I scored an index of 215 and I live in Texas. Is this enough for Semifinalist or does it fall short?
Dav U,
A 215 will fall short of Semifinalist. You will be named a Commended Student.