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National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2025

By November 15, 2023National Merit, PSAT

Breaking News: We now have the results from all of the 1,490,000 juniors who took the October 2023 PSAT and have updated our estimates accordingly.

Compass Co-founder Adam Ingersoll hosted a strategy session that helped students interpret their official PSAT results and craft a smart path forward. He shared our latest insights and updated forecasts as the role of testing steadily regains significance in competitive contexts.

WATCH THE RECORDING

The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]

Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.

This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.

50,000 juniors achieved a score of 1400-1520 in the class of 2025. Compass estimates that this will result in a Commended cutoff between 208 and 210, with the most likely cutoff at 209.

The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.

The line of best fit shows that this year's total of 50,000 top scorers is likely to result in a Commended cutoff of 209.

The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.

StateClass of 2025
(Most Likely)
Class of 2025
(Est Range)
Class of 2024
(Actual)
Class of 2023
(Actual)
Class of 2022
(Actual)
Alabama212210 - 216210212212
Alaska212209 - 215209210208
Arizona217214 - 220216214218
Arkansas212208 - 215210210211
California221219 - 223221220221
Colorado217215 - 220216217217
Connecticut221219 - 222221221220
Delaware220218 - 222219218220
District of Columbia223222 - 224223223224
Florida216215 - 219216216217
Georgia219216 - 220217218219
Hawaii217215 - 220217215217
Idaho214210 - 216211215214
Illinois219217 - 221219219218
Indiana216213 - 219216214215
Iowa213210 - 216210212211
Kansas215213 - 218214214215
Kentucky214210 - 217211212212
Louisiana214211 - 217214213213
Maine214211 - 217213215211
Maryland222219 - 223221222224
Massachusetts222220 - 223222220221
Michigan217215 - 220217218217
Minnesota218215 - 220216216218
Mississippi211209 - 215209210213
Missouri215212 - 218214213214
Montana210208 - 214209207208
Nebraska213209 - 216210212210
Nevada214210 - 218211210214
New Hampshire215213 - 219215213214
New Jersey223222 - 224223223222
New Mexico211208 - 215207208210
New York220218 - 222220219220
North Carolina218215 - 220217217218
North Dakota209208 - 212207209207
Ohio216214 - 218216216215
Oklahoma211208 - 216208211210
Oregon217215 - 220216216220
Pennsylvania219217 - 221219218218
Rhode Island216213 - 219215216213
South Carolina213209 - 217209213213
South Dakota211208 - 215209212210
Tennessee216214 - 219217215215
Texas220218 - 221219219220
Utah212209 - 216209211212
Vermont213210 - 217212213211
Virginia221219 - 222219221221
Washington220218 - 222220220220
West Virginia209208 - 212207207207
Wisconsin214212 - 217213213214
Wyoming209208 - 211207207208
​U.S. Territories209208 - 210207207207
​​Studying Abroad223222 - 224223223224
​​​Commended209208 - 210207207207

[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]

The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.

However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Distribution of year-over-year cutoff changes shows that there is a roughly normal distribution, with no change occurring 30% of the time.

Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.

 

The number of states seeing cutoff changes has never dropped below 25. In some years, virtually all cutoffs have gone up or down.

Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.

What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.

The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.

How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).

Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

3,662 Comments

  • Dee says:

    I had read commended was about top 3%, so how does percentile correlate with that at all (if at all)? My son was 98th percentile, but his score is under the 207 projected for commended.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Dee,
      College Board presents percentiles in a misleading way. Rather than base them on the actual test takers, it bases them on a hypothetical group of all high school juniors. While your son is in approximately the top 2% of that hypothetical group, he is likely in the top 4% of actual test takers. Also, National Merit uses the Selection Index, which does not have an attached percentile.

  • Julie says:

    When will the final selection index score cutoff for each state come out?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Julie,
      In late August NMSC will notify schools of Semifinalists. Schools will then notify Semifinalists. It’s around that time in early September when we learn the cutoffs. Alas, there is no early release.

  • Adam says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer, great article! I got a 216 in Florida, 99th in English, 98th in math, but 99th total percentile. Does everyone in the 99th percentile get national merit, or can some not get it? I know that I’m right on the cutoff, so I’m pretty nervous

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Adam,
      Percentiles are not applicable for National Merit. First, they are national, and National Merit (despite the name) is decided at the state level. Second, percentiles are based on a hypothetical set of all test takers, not on actual test takers. Third, percentiles are based on prior years and not on this year. Fourth, … you get the point. I think you’ve got a better than even chance of Semifinalist with a 216, but it is not because of percentiles.

  • Alden says:

    Thanks for the informative article! California Junior here with a 220 selection index score, what do you think is the likelihood I will be a semifinalist?

  • Sam says:

    Hi Art,
    Thanks for such an informative article. My daughter has 219 for selection index on the PAST, which she took in October 2023. What are her odds of making it to Semi Final. We are from Colorado.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sam,
      A 219 has an excellent shot this year. While CO has seen cutoffs of 220 and 221, recently, those were during years where all of the cutoffs were high. I think we are seeing a “low” year this year.

  • Andy says:

    Hi Art, My son has 220 in 99th percentile in NYS. NY has been at 219-220 for the last 4 years. Does he have a shot?

  • Laura says:

    Hi,
    Thank you for this article it has been extremely helpful. I think my daughter scored high enough to make the South Carolina cutoff and has already taken the ACT/SAT and done well in her sophomore year, are those scores applicable toward becoming a Merit Finalist ? She plans to take them both at least 1 more time. Is there a specific score she needs to be competitive to be a finalist? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Laura,
      As long the the scores were earned in the August of her sophomore year (technically right before her sophomore year) or later, she should be fine. The confirming score for Finalist is all or nothing. In other words, a high score doesn’t make it more likely to qualify. A Semifinalist needs to earn an SAT score (or equivalent ACT score) that is at least as high as the Commended cutoff selection index. Roughly, that means a 1400 or better on the SAT.

  • Kim says:

    Do you know if alternate entry will require a confirming score for the class of 2024? I am unable to find any answer on the NMSC site. Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kim,
      I believe that Alternate Entry still requires a confirming score, but you may want to check with National Merit. No, it’s not published in any of its materials.

  • Chandra says:

    Hi,
    My son graduates high school in 2024. My son’s PSAT selection index is 226. We are from Arizona (AZ). I believe he will be named a Semifinalist. My question is, for the SAT requirement to become a Finalist, does he need to take the SAT test during a specific time? In other words, he has already taken the SAT on 12/3/22 and he scored well (1500+). Can we use this SAT test results to meet the SAT requirement for becoming a Finalist? Or does he need to take the SAT during a specific time, like, between October 2023 and December 2023 to meet the Finalist requirement? I read somewhere that we need to take the SAT during a specific duration. That is why I am asking the question. Thank you for taking time in answering my question.

  • Josie says:

    Art,
    Could you tell me if the top 3% scoring 1400 and above (N=43,575) in your table is based on hard data or an estimate? The test seemed particularly difficult. Thank you.

  • Rich says:

    Great article, My son scored a 217 in Missouri. Will that qualify as a semifinalist? Thank you,

  • Harold says:

    Hello, what are the chances that I qualify with a 216 in Florida? Thanks

  • Rod says:

    Hi Art!

    Hope you had a great Christmas! Thank you for the article it was very informative.

    My son scored a 215 in Florida. What do you think are his chances of making the semi-finals?

    Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Thank you, Rod!

      I’d say that it is close to 50/50 on a 215 versus a 216 cutoff this year.

      • Max says:

        Art, thank you. Your data suggests my daughter will qualify as a semi-finalist and assuming her resume/SAT scores confirm those results so she’s lucky enough to be named a finalist, I have a very specific question. I read where if you qualify for a corporate reward (let’s say I work for a sponsoring company), you wouldn’t be eligible for a school award. Of course they don’t want double dipping, but what happens if the Corporate Award would be more beneficial at a school that doesn’t offer significant National Merit aid, but would be significantly less than another school that sponsors more finalists? I know there is some risk involved in choosing your primary school, but does National Merit award the scholarship that will be best for you if you name both a school and a corporate sponsor?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Max,
          Sorry for the long delay. I consider myself an expert on score and eligibility questions, but I get hazier when dealing with some of the advanced questions on scholarships. The matching process is still almost a year away for your daughter. My advice is to contact NMSC once your daughter becomes a Finalist. NMSC will help determine the best course.

  • David says:

    What about 2024 students just below the “commend” line (say index @ 200)? Obviously, that’s a formidable score. Do they receive any accolades? Do colleges/scholarships traditionally value anything below “comenend” line? Assume one student at 200-205 from NJ vs one from West Virginia.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      David,
      Except for its use in National Merit, I am not aware of any schools that evaluate students or offer scholarships based on PSAT scores. Instead, it’s best to view a formidable score on the PSAT as a prelude to success on the SAT. It’s the latter that matters for admissions and awards.

  • Monica says:

    Hi!
    Any predictions for Maryland’s cut off this year? My son’s index score is 223. His high school college counseling office said that the cut-off are determined in in December. Is that correct? Why aren’t they released until August? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Monica,
      Cutoffs are not determined in December. They are not finalized until May/June at the earliest and are kept under lock-and-key at NMSC until notifications are sent out. NMSC does notifications via schools, so it makes more sense to wait until August than to try to do something over the summer. The 224 cutoff that we saw for the class of 2022 was caused by the mass cancellations in Maryland. I don’t think we will see a repeat this year.

  • Liz says:

    Hello (from California)!

    My son’s NMSC index is 220, he took SAT in Nov, 2022 and scored 1530. If Cal index is 221, he would miss it. My question is if someone meets the index (e.g. 221) but he/she would only need 1400 SAT to qualify for semifinalist? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Liz,
      Only the PSAT score is used for determining Semifinalist status. I’m not sure that I understand your question about the 1400. If someone meets the index, they qualify as a Semifinalist. They then need a confirming SAT score to qualify as a Finalist. A 1400 is approximately the score needed. A 1400 would not qualify a CA student as a Semifinalist.

  • Elise says:

    This is such valuable information! My daughter got a 215 in TN and I see that historically, that is where it has hit. She is quite nervous since it is so close. I read above she can retake it? She also took the ACT her sophomore year and got a 34 without preparing. I also saw you mention ACT can be used? How would she take it again or use ACT? We too were told it had to happen during a specific testing time. She is currently a JR.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Elise,
      Students who took the PSAT cannot retake an exam for Semifinalist qualifying. Students who missed the PSAT and are qualifying via Alternate Entry are able to repeat the SAT. What you may be thinking of is Finalist qualification. Once a student is named a Semifinalist (fingers crossed for your daughter), she will need to provide a “confirming score” as part of her Finalist application. That score can be an SAT or ACT and can be repeated anytime between fall of sophomore year and December of senior year. Your daughter’s 34 is likely already high enough. [I have to say likely because there are some quirks in converting an ACT to an SAT Selection Index. You can find out more in our National Merit FAQ post.]

  • Emily says:

    Y’all should know that Art is a blessing to all things National Merit! His guidance is invaluable. My son is (likely) a National Merit Finalist for 2023 and Art’s advice and predictions have been spot on. Trust the process and congratulations to your children on their success!

  • Brayden says:

    I got a 213 on my PSAT and it says I am in the 99th %tile for people. I live in Wisconsin. How likely am I to make the semifinalist cutoff since I am on the line but I do see top 1% which considering they name 16000 people and less than 1.6mill took the test I would ASSUME I would qualify. Where did you get the number that 214 was the most likely number from Wisconsin considering scores overall did not appear to vary at all. I will be very sad if I miss it by one point and have been stressing for a while if I will or will not get this award. I got 99% in english and 99% in math.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Brayden,
      Choosing between 213 and 214 for my “Most Likely” was a little arbitrary. WI has recently had cutoffs as high as 217 (albeit in an up year nationally), so I was conservative.

      Percentiles, unfortunately, don’t provide us any useful information when it comes to National Merit: (A) they are not based on the Selection Index (B) they are for 3 previous class years and not your class year (C) in the case of “Nationally-representative percentiles”, they include estimates for students who didn’t actually test (D) they are rounded, and the rounding matters and (E) they are not reported by state, and Semifinalist status is determined ONLY by state.

      I recommend assuming the best and taking your mind off of it until September.

  • Marlie says:

    Hey Art,
    I am a student in Louisiana, and I got a 213 as my index. What do you think are the chances of me being a semifinalist? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Marlie,
      In years where we see stability in cutoffs, about two-thirds of states see the same cutoff or a lower one. I think we’ll see a stable year, so I’d estimate your student’s chances at 60-70%.

  • Anna C. says:

    Great article! My daughter scored an index of 217 and we live in Ohio. Is this enough for Semifinalist or Commended?

  • Sam says:

    Hi! I took the 2024 PSAT in the state of Louisiana. I got an index of 212 even though the cutoff is expected to be 213. Do I have a chance of making the cutoff? If I do, is there any further steps that I need to take? Thank you! Also, if I barely make the cutoff, will that affect my chance of making it to become a finalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sam,
      Louisiana was at 212 as recently as the class of 2021, so there is certainly a chance. Realistically, it’s probably less than 50/50. The good news is that barely making it is still making it. Your Selection Index does not impact your chances of becoming a Finalist.

  • Sree says:

    Hi, My son has 213 and we are from Missouri, what are the chances to qualify as semifinalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sree,
      This year — nationally, as least — looks to be shaping up like last year. That would be good news go your son, as Missouri’s cutoff was 213. However, states don’t always follow the national trend, and MO came in at 214 in the two previous years. I’d say his chances are 50/50.

  • Charlotte says:

    Art,
    My friend sent me your link to this great article. My daughter got a 213 on the PSAT in Louisiana for class of 2024. How are her chances looking? Thanks.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Charlotte,
      The national data indicate that this year will look a lot like last year. That would be good news for your daughter, since last year’s Louisiana cutoff was 213.. Unfortunately, what happens nationally doesn’t translate perfectly to the 50 states. My estimate is that we’ll see 60-70% of states with the same or lower cutoff. Let’s hope LA is one of them!

  • Kristen says:

    Hello Art! I have twins that scored 218 and 212 respectively. We live in Oklahoma….. thoughts on chances for my 212 kiddo considering the last several years Oklahoma has been 210 or 211??? i know it has been higher in past years.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kristen,
      We’ll probably find out at the end of this month what the Commended level will be. Why is that important? Hopefully it confirms that we are seeing another “low” year nationally (that’s what the initial data shows). It won’t guarantee that Oklahoma’s cutoff will be 212 or lower, but it would indicate that the odds are in your kiddo’s favor.

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