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National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2026

April 7, 2025: Commended cutoff at 210.
The Commended Student cutoff for the class of 2026 is confirmed at a Selection Index of 210. This was the exact level Compass projected in November based on PSAT results. This means that changes to our estimated ranges for Semifinalist cutoffs are minimal. The extreme edges — upper and lower — of our estimated ranges are a bit less probable, but the “Most Likely” scores are unchanged. The fact that Compass’s Commended cutoff estimate was correct, however, does not mean that the Semifinalist projections will prove just as accurate — there is always variability at the state level. Juniors scoring at or above 210 on the PSAT/NMSQT will be Commended Students or Semifinalists, but announcements are not made until September. Semifinalist cutoffs will not be revealed until late August or early September.

November 13: Updated with final wave of PSAT scores.
College Board released scores in three waves depending on when students took the PSAT. We have now received scores summaries for all three waves. It is possible that some late scores will still dribble in, but we are not expecting any changes. The results point to a strong upward trend in cutoffs for the class of 2026. You are welcome to jump to the table of estimates below, but we encourage students and families to read more about how we came to those estimates. For more information on the National Merit Program, in general, you may want to read Compass’s National Merit Scholarship Program Explained. If you want to browse almost two decades’ worth of cutoffs, you can find them in Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs.

What is a Semifinalist Cutoff?
Each year almost 17,000 juniors are named Semifinalists in the National Merit Scholarship Program and continue on in the hopes of being one of the 15,000 Finalists and, eventually, one of the 7,500 scholarship recipients. The score needed to qualify as a Semifinalist varies by state and is known as the “cutoff.” Every student scoring at or above the Semifinalist cutoff qualifies. The cutoff is not based on a student’s overall PSAT score but on the Selection Index. The Selection Index is listed on a student’s PSAT score report. It can be calculated by doubling the ERW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. For example, a 720 ERW / 730 M would have a Selection Index of (720 x 2 + 730)/10 = 217. For the class of 2025, cutoffs ranged from 208 to 223.

What is a Commended Student Cutoff?
If you performed well on the PSAT but do not qualify as a Semifinalist, you have the opportunity to be named as a Commended Student. Unlike the Semifinalist cutoffs, the Commended cutoff is set nationally. For last year’s class it was 208. Approximately 36,000 students are named Commended Students each year.

Why does Compass believe that we are likely to see cutoffs, as a whole, go up?
College Board releases very little data about score distribution. The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. While we do not know the number of students scoring at a particular Selection Index, we do know the number of students scoring in the 1400-1520 range, which roughly correlates to Selection Indexes of 210-228. The class of 2026 ranks 4th in the ten years since the PSAT scoring was overhauled, and this year sees the highest ever percentage of top scores. The number of Semifinalists and Commended students are capped, so cutoffs are likely to rise. But not all cutoffs. The numbers we have seen are at the national level and there is always churn at the state level. What we believe, however, is that more cutoffs will go up than down.

There is a good correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score. We believe that the Commended cutoff will come in between 209 and 211, with a 210 being most likely. Based on our historical archive of Semifinalist and Commended cutoffs, we believe that the average Semifinalist cutoff will go up this year.

Will I find out my status right away?
No. In fact, students don’t learn of Semifinalist status until September of senior year. Compass tracks data on current year performance and historical records to provides estimates and updates between PSAT score release and the Semifinalist announcements. Last year — the first year of the digital PSAT — saw a noticeable uptick in scores. Only one state — South Dakota — saw a lower cutoff versus the previous year’s. Was this a onetime quirk? Based on early results for the class of 2026, we do not believe that it was. The upward trend — whether due to the new test format, recovery from COVID-era learning loss, or other factors — appears to be continuing.

One mistake students make is thinking that the cutoff for one year will be the same in the next year. Cutoffs change every year, sometimes by as much as 5 or 6 points (granted, that’s unusual). Compass emphasizes an Estimated Range, which is likely to include the ultimate cutoff. Within that range, we do provide our Most Likely. That score represents our best estimate based on the known factors, but there are many unknown factors. Most of our PSAT performance data are for national results. So we can usually peg the Commended cutoff within a point or two. States, however, can move in different directions. More Alaskan students may test this year. Some strong Rhode Island prep schools may have decided to stop offering the PSAT. A COVID outbreak in Montana could mean more students using Alternate Entry and entering the competition using SAT scores. Below is a table that shows how many states in each of the last 17 years saw increases, decreases, or no change. There has never been a year where even half of all state cutoffs remain unchanged.

The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red).

Historically, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Over the decade from 2015 – 2024, Semifinalist cutoffs remained unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Distribution of year-over-year cutoff changes shows that there is a roughly normal distribution, with no change occurring 30% of the time.

We believe that a table of results from this class will skew to the right.

Small states have more volatile cutoffs than large states, but there can be surprises across the board. The PSAT had a significant overhaul in scoring in 2017. If we look at the minimum and maximum cutoffs during the 9-year period from then until the class of 2025, we see that the 13 largest states (about 100,000 or more high school graduates) average a 2.8-point differential. New Jersey has a 1-point differential, since its lowest cutoff is 222 and highest is 223. The smallest states (fewer than 30,000 graduates) have a 6.2 point differential. Alaska has been as low as 208 and as high as 217! The medium-sized states average a 5-point difference between minimum and maximum.

Here are Compass’s current estimates for Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2026:


State
Class of 2026
Estimated Range
Class of 2026
Most Likely
Class of 2025
(Actual)
Class of 2024
(Actual)
Class of 2023
(Actual)
# of 2025 Semifinalists
Alabama210 - 216214212210212267
Alaska210 - 21621421420921036
Arizona215 - 220218217216214401
Arkansas210 - 215213213210210134
California220 - 2232222212212202103
Colorado216 - 221218218216217272
Connecticut220 - 222221221221221177
Delaware218 - 22122021921921843
District of Columbia222 - 22422322322322347
Florida216 - 220218217216216972
Georgia217 - 221219218217218624
Hawaii215 - 22021821721721574
Idaho212 - 217214213211215102
Illinois218 - 222220220219219738
Indiana214 - 219217217216214304
Iowa211 - 217214212210212156
Kansas213 - 219216215214214142
Kentucky211 - 217214213211212202
Louisiana212 - 217215214214213238
Maine212 - 21721521421321553
Maryland221 - 224222222221222296
Massachusetts221 - 224223223222220294
Michigan216 - 220218218217218511
Minnesota216 - 220218217216216288
Mississippi210 - 215213212209210155
Missouri214 - 218216215214213276
Montana208 - 21321020920920745
Nebraska210 - 216213211210212118
Nevada211 - 218215214211210162
New Hampshire214 - 21921721721521355
New Jersey222 - 224223223223223474
New Mexico209 - 21521221120720894
New York219 - 2212202202202191089
North Carolina216 - 220218218217217518
North Dakota209 - 21321021020720928
Ohio215 - 219217217216216582
Oklahoma209 - 215212211208211214
Oregon215 - 220217216216216205
Pennsylvania217 - 221219219219218583
Rhode Island213 - 22021721721521650
South Carolina210 - 217215214209213234
South Dakota209 - 21421120820921241
Tennessee215 - 219218217217215319
Texas218 - 2212202192192191714
Utah210 - 216213211209211195
Vermont211 - 21721521521221333
Virginia220 - 223222222219221394
Washington220 - 223221222220220358
West Virginia209 - 21221020920720766
Wisconsin213 - 217215214213213289
Wyoming209 - 21321120920720724
​U.S. Territories209 - 21121020820720745
​​Studying Abroad222 - 224223223223223112
​​​Commended209 - 211210208207207

If you’d like to see even more historical data, you can find cutoffs going back to 2008 in Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs.

Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.

NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for a state. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale.

What if I missed the PSAT because of illness or other legitimate reason?
You may still be able to enter the scholarship program by applying for Alternate Entry using an SAT score. Find information about last year’s process in Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 53,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

4,430 Comments

  • Alexandrai says:

    Hello, Mr. Sawyer! My daughter received a 225 as her selection index score in TX. I realize she’ll probably make it to the Semifinals; how are finals determined? Is the selection index score also used?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Congratulations to your daughter, Alexandrai! No, the Selection Index is not part of the selection process for Finalist. Keep in mind that 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists become Finalists, so the odds are in her favor. NMSC looks at grades, school recommendation, and essay. Your daughter also needs a confirming score on the SAT or ACT. That shouldn’t be difficult, because she just needs to score at the equivalent of the Commended mark. As for grades, NMSC does not provide guidance other than a student needing “a consistently very high academic record.”

  • Sue says:

    If live in NY but go to school in NJ, what state index is relevant for you? My son has an index of 228 (perfect score) so not asking for him but for one of his friends.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sue,
      National Merit goes by school rather than home state. Unfortunately, that means the NJ cutoff will apply.

      Congratulations to your son!

  • Mel says:

    Hi Art,

    Thank you so much for all the helpful information that you provide. My son has a 218 selection index score in Colorado. What percentage chance would you say he has of being named an NMSF? When is the next time that you expect to have additional information to provide? Perhaps a blog post when the commended cutoff is known? If so, when would that be? Would that information be useful in better predicting if cutoff scores for NMSF will generally stay the same as last year, decrease, or increase? September can’t come soon enough!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Mel,
      Now is the time when I expect additional information! I’m hearing that my estimate of 207 for the Commended cutoff is correct. [I’d still like further confirmation.] That’s good news for your son. Each year that the Commended cutoff has been below 210, we’ve seen a Colorado Semifinalist cutoff of 218 or 217. I’d caution that surprises do happen. I’d now rank your son’s chances as 80%+.

  • Marc says:

    Does confirming score on SAT mean that it has to be just as good as PSAT – e.g. score was 1450 PSAT and 1410 on SAT. Should SAT be retaken? Student is also already a national recognition award winner. Does that impact chances for finalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Marc,
      No, it does not need to be as good as the PSAT. Create a Selection Index from the SAT score. That SAT SI needs to be at least as high as the Commended cutoff. Your student can probably do better on the SAT, but a 1410 — depending on the splits — is likely high enough to serve as a confirming score.

      I’m not aware of other recognition awards being used for Finalist consideration.

  • Saheli says:

    This is a very useful post.

  • Brayden says:

    Where did you decide Wisconsin would be a 214? I got a 213 and am from Wisconsin and am PRAYING that it doesn’t move. Based on the data shown, it looks like the data was very similar to last year. Do you have data for each state individually that hints a rise in the Wisconsin cutoff? Just curious what my chances are of qualifying or if I am really gonna miss it by 1.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Brayden,
      There is a good argument for it to be 213. As you say, it was 213 last year and also for the class of 2021. It did hit 214 with the class of 2022 and 215 for the class of 2017 (I look at the latter because it is one of the years with a sub-210 Commended cutoff). Those factors made me go with 214. In a flat year for the Commended cutoff (which it now appears to be), we’d normally expect to see about two-thirds of states end up with the same or lower cutoffs. So you have a good chance with your 213. As with most of the scores in my estimated range, it’s really too close to call. We’ll be waiting until September.

  • Alisha says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,
    My son received a letter today stating that because his Selection Index score was above 207 he would find out in Sept if he’s either SF or Commended. You prediction of 207 was right on! Can we really know anything further in TX? I’m still holding out hope that it will be 218 for SF in TX this year. Thanks for your help!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Alisha,
      Thank you for the update! Is your son homeschooled or did he receive the letter from his school?

      Nothing further on TX. The 207 Commended keeps a 218 in play.

      • Alisha says:

        Mr. Sawyer, Thank you for your response!

        He is considered homeschooled because he attends an online private school. We received the letter in the mail directly from NM. Fingers crossed in TX!

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Thank you, Alisha! I’ve received additional confirmations, so we definitely know the Commended cutoff is 207.

      • Shannon says:

        We’re in the same boat with a 218 in Texas, hoping your estimated for Texas is high by 1 point.

  • Robert says:

    Hello Art, rumor has it the commended cutoff is 207 for the class of 2024 based on letters to homeschool parents. Given 207 was your initial estimate, does this change your thoughts at all on state-specific cutoff ranges? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Robert,
      Yes, I heard the same thing from a parent here. Since the 207 came in as estimated, it doesn’t change my Most Likely estimates. What it does do is make some of the high estimates in the range less likely. If we just start alphabetically, for instance, a 215 in Alabama is likely off the table. If the Commended score had been an upside surprise, that wouldn’t be true.

  • Jessica M. says:

    Hello, Mr. Sawyer! My daughter received a 1480 as her score and 220 as her selection index score in Maryland, just below the predicted 222. Historically, how accurate have you been in your predictions?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jessica,
      The “Most Likely” estimates are so-so, and I’ve tried to show why “most likely” estimates are going to be so-so, at best. I encourage folks to look at the possible range of scores. Let’s say that there is a 40% chance of the “most likely” being right. That’s not all that good. But it’s better than the 20% chance that the cutoff comes in 1 point lower or the 20% chance that it comes in 1 point higher. And maybe there is a 10% chance of a 2 point shift lower and 10% higher. Those are general numbers, because some states move more than others. Large states tend to see smaller changes and the highest scoring states tend to see smaller changes.

      Maryland is definitely not a large state, but it is a high-scoring one. Over the last decade it has joined a group of states with the highest or second highest cutoffs in the country. I mention decade, because it was the class of 2013 when Maryland last saw a 220 cutoff.

      I included 220 in my range of possible cutoffs because it is possible. I just have to be honest that it is less likely than a cutoff of 222.

  • Daniel says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer, I’m a junior out here in Michigan. I was able to get a 220 selection index on the PSAT, and, seeing that your commended prediction was spot, can a 221 cutoff be ruled out in Michigan?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Daniel,
      I certainly think so. We’re unlikely to see new highs being set this year, and a 3-point jump for a large state like Michigan is not in the cards. Congratulations!

  • Subbu says:

    Hello, Mr. Sawyer!
    My daughter received 218 in New Jersey and it seems she is not qualified for NMS Semifinals. Does the school send a letter for Commended Scholar?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Subbu,
      Yes, the school should distribute Commended letters around mid- to late-September. They are provided after the announcement of Semifinalists.

  • Hailey says:

    Art,
    Do you have any new information on Louisiana? My daughter got a 213 index and we are really hoping that it stays at 213! Thanks.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Hailey,
      Nothing new specific to Louisiana. We know that the Commended level didn’t change nationally, so that’s good news.

  • Shawn says:

    Hi, I got a 214 in Tennessee. What are the chances of getting semifinalist because Tennessee seems to be pretty consistent at 215?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Shawn,
      Tennessee doesn’t have a recent record of going to 214. A one point drop is not out of the question, but I’d have to put the probability at around 10%.

  • Eli says:

    Hi, Any anticipated changes to the Florida cut off for the 2024 year or you think it will be 216?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Eli,
      With the unchanged Commended cutoff, I’m expecting little movement. A trusted source in Florida feels it could move to 215.

  • A says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,
    What are the odds of a 216 in Ohio qualifying for semifinalist? Given that the commended cutoff is 207, does your prediction change?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      A,
      Sorry for the slow response! The 207 cutoff makes it more likely that the cutoff will come in at 215 or 216. There have been recent 217s and 218s, but I would peg the odds at about 75-80%.

  • Kerry says:

    My daughter’s counselor saw a list and she says it was national merit semifinalist, she said my daughter’s name was on it(with a 210 in Oklahoma). I’m thinking this was probably a commended list and it would be too soon to know about national merit semifinalist. What are your thoughts?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kerry,
      Sorry for the delayed response. You are right. The list counselors received in April is of students who will be Commended OR Semifinalist. A 210 is not out of the running in Oklahoma (the state has seen dramatic shifts), but you will need to wait until September to know.

  • Francisco says:

    Hi art,

    I am a student in TX. I got a 217 index score, it’s unlikely that I’ll make it to SF right? Thank you

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Francisco,
      Unfortunately, Texas’s cutoff has not moved below 218 in quite some time. You will, however, be named a Commended Student in September.

  • Lucy says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer!

    I received a 219 as my Index, and I live in Indiana. I am wondering when the letters for commended scholars usually come out. I haven’t received anything from my school yet. Also, with a 219, it looks like I will be a semifinalist, but I just wanted to get your input on how likely you think that is to happen.

    Thank you so much for your help!
    Lucy

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Lucy,
      Sorry for being slow to reply. Don’t worry, you are not missing out on anything. The Commended cutoff has been set, but no one is officially a Commended Student yet. NMSC will send Semifinalist letters to high schools in late August. Schools usually notify students in early September, which is also when we will start receiving information about the state cutoffs. Commended letters are sent out after Semifinalist notifications are made.

      At 219, congratulations! You should be a lock as a Semifinalist. I don’t see Indiana’s cutoff moving to 220.

  • Max says:

    Mr. Sawyer,

    Given the national cutoff, what do you think are the odds a 220 qualifies in NY for semifinalist status? Greater than 75%? Thanks for any feedback.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Max,
      Now that we know that the Commended cutoff is staying at 207, the odds are probably even higher than 75%. We’ve only seen NY hit 221 in years with high Commended cutoffs. Strange things can happen, but I think 80-90% is a fair estimate.

  • Theresa says:

    Mr. Sawyer,
    This is an incredible resource and thank you for your work. My son has a SI score of 218 in NC. He doesn’t know if 207 is the number or a range of 217-219 is more accurate. Do you have any information? Is he likely to receive some information from NM? I saw in a previous post you mentioned confirming SAT and ACT scores. If his PSAT score was 1470, his SAT score was 1570(perfect Math) and his ACT was 35(perfect Math ), do these scores fit the “confirming” score? Does the college the student is applying to in the Fall of 23 affect their chances of being a finalist?
    Thank you for all your information

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Theresa,
      With a 218 your son is guaranteed to be at least a Commended Student. It’s quite likely (90%?) that his score will qualify him as a Semifinalist. I don’t think we’ll see the North Carolina cutoff jumping 2 points this year. He won’t hear directly from NM about any of this. Instead, NMSC sends Semifinalist information to high schools at the end of August. Most schools notify students in early to mid-September.

      If he qualifies as a Semifinalist, what comes next? He’ll apply to be a Finalist. That’s where the confirming score comes in. Given his SAT and ACT scores, you don’t even need to worry about the mechanics. He is all set (he’ll just need to have an official score report sent to NMSC, so I guess that is the mechanics.). Finalist also need to have excellent grades and a school recommendation. Most Semifinalists do end up becoming Finalists.

      His school choice does not impact his selection as a Finalist. It is only at the scholarship stage in spring of 2024 that his college choice matters. Some schools offer NM scholarships to all Finalists. Some offer a limited number of scholarships. And some offer none at all. In the latter case, he would need to earn one of the company and National Merit sponsored awards.

  • Hailey says:

    Hey Art,
    I was in this chat a few months ago asking about Louisiana and my daughter who got a 213. Are there any new updates that you have? And is the predicted score still a 213? Crossing my fingers for her!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Hailey,
      The only new development — as discussed in the post — is that we now know the Commended cutoff. Since it came in exactly as expected, it doesn’t change the estimates for the state cutoffs. [Well, that’s not entirely true. It lowers the chance of an extremely high bounce.] Unfortunately, your daughter is going to need to wait until September to know anything more.

  • Samuel says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,

    This entire article is very informational and I’d like to thank you for putting it together. I have a 215 in Tennessee, and wanted to know what your estimate of my odds are for becoming a semifinalist.

    Thank you.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Samuel,
      Given the unchanged Commended cutoff, I expect at least 2/3rds of state cutoffs to stay the same or move lower. Tennessee has stayed at 215 the last two years, so I’d put your odds at 65-75%. Good luck!

      • Art Sawyer says:

        …215 the last three years…

      • Aymen says:

        chance for 215 in Arizona?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Aymen,
          Arizona’s recent past shows why it can be difficult to predict a cutoff. If we look at last year’s 214, things look good. In the preceding 7 years, though, Arizona’s cutoff was no lower than 218. I’d say that it is something of a toss-up at 215.

  • Bill says:

    When does Michigan release its National Merit Semifinalists? My son received an index score of 219 and has not received a notification indicating that he was selected as one of semifinalists. How do they communicate? Thank you

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Bill,
      Not to worry. No one has been notified. NMSC will send notification letters to high schools in late August. Most schools don’t notify students until well into September. Your son is in an excellent position with a 219.

  • Kristen says:

    Mr. Sawyer,

    Thank you for taking the time to provide this very helpful information. Any thoughts on the likelihood of a 218 qualifying as a semifinalist in Pennsylvania?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kristen,
      When I look at the 3 out of the last 6 years where the Commended cutoff has been below 210, the PA cutoff has gone no higher than 210, the cutoff has reached 219. The Commended cutoff is at 207, so the odds are not bad. There is always a chance that a state sees a bounce upward, but I thing a 218 has an 80% (?) chance of qualifying. Alas, not so certain that it doesn’t mean waiting until September to find out for sure.

      • Art Sawyer says:

        That should have read “…no higher than 218. The cutoff has reached 219 in years where the Commended cutoff has been above 210.”

  • Dave says:

    Hello, Mr. Sawyer.

    I recieved a 219 Index score on the PSAT and live in NY. Could you estimate my chances of making it to Semi Finals?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Dave,
      NY generally stays within a tight range. Over the last 8 years, the cutoff has stayed between 219 and 221. It has been 219 twice and 220 and 221 three times each. The good news is that we’re seeing another low year with the Commended cutoff, and NY was at 219 last year. Given all of those factors, I’d say your odds are better than even.

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