April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello – My son got a PSAT of 210 but then got a SAT of 1570. It sounds like he will only get a commendation based on what I’m reading. I am in NJ. Is that correct?
Tracey,
That’s correct. NJ is the toughest state in the country. There are many students who would trade NMSF for a 1570 on the SAT. Congratulations!
Hey. I have a 219 in Texas. What are my chances?
Ketan,
I think your chances are right around 50/50 (arguably a bit better than that). The good news is that TX was at 219 last year. The less good news is that it has hit 220 even in years where the Commended cutoff has been low (under 210).
What are the odds for a 212 in Mississippi?
Jenn,
The last two years we have seen Commended cutoffs of 208 and 207. In one of those years Mississippi’s Semifinalist cutoff was 213 and in the other it was 210. That sort of sums up why I think it’s about 50/50.
If alternate SAT for NMSP was taken this June, would the student be included in the list for semifinalists that will come out this September? Score is above projected semifinalist cutoff and has been sent to NMSP, alternate entry form also submitted to NMSP.
Harold,
I’m not sure. Most alternate entry students are announced along with the rest of the Semifinalists, but that may simply be because most have sent scores for earlier test dates. Since NMSC allows scores to arrive as late as October, it clearly has some Semifinalists who are not notified until after the initial batch of announcements.
Hi Mr Sawyer,
I received a selection index score of 217. I live in Colorado. Given the Commended cut-off of 207, what do you think are my chances of making semifinalist? Better than 60%? Thank you!
Jonah,
I’d say somewhere between 60% and 75%. While things have been steady the last few years, a 1-point change upward can happen even in years where the Commended cutoff remains unchanged.
What are the chances I make it with 220 index score in Texas?
Caden,
I think they are strong (80%+). We’ve only seen TX hit 221 in years where the Commended cutoff was at least 212. But because Texas has hovered in the 219/220 range, I don’t think we can completely rule it out. Good luck!
If I have a 220 in Minnesota, what are my chances at getting National Merit Semifinalist
Cecile,
We’ve never seen a cutoff above 220 in MN, and there is no reason to think we will this year. Congratulations!
Hi, what is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 217 selection index in Florida for the class of 2024?
Emma,
I think the chances are quite good (80%+?). It’s unlikely that we’ll see many (or any) large states see 2-point increases this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
I have scored a 218 Selection Index Score in Ohio through the Alternate Entry Form from NMSC. I turned in this form and SAT score in the beginning of July. Is the “early enough” for me to know whether or not I qualified for National Merit in September?
Harsha,
You’d need to direct this question to NMSC. I’m not sure what their deadlines are for announcements when it comes to Alternate Entry. If a 218 qualifies in Ohio, you will qualify as a Semifinalist. Whether your name is announced or not in September, I’m not sure.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
Thank you for the information! I asked NMSC and they told me that I will know whether I qualified in September along with the other qualifiers. What do you believe are my chances to qualify as a Semifinalist with a 218 in Ohio?
Great! Thank you for sharing the information. You are in an excellent position with a 218. We’ve only seen Ohio’s cutoff hit 219 in years where the Commended cutoff was 4-5 points higher than it is this year. I’d put your odds above 90%.
Hello,
Last year Illinois index score was 219 and What are the chances I make it with 219 this year? Thank you!
Grace,
I expect cutoffs to be fairly stable this year, meaning that two-thirds will see no change or a decline. The Illinois cutoff has only gone above 219 in years where the Commended cutoff has been over 210. I’d put the odds of a 219 qualifying at 75-80%.
chances with a 224 in new york?
S,
A 224 will qualify as a Semifinalist in every state. Congratulations!
Hi! My index was 221 and I live in VA. What would you estimate my chances to be? Thanks!
Austin,
As you probably know, Virginia usually has one of the highest cutoffs in the country. The good news is that the cutoff has been fairly stable. It has only moved in the 220 – 222 range in the last 10 years. I’d put the odds of a 221 qualifying at about 80% or better.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
What are the odds of a SI of 220 in Massachusetts qualifying for semifinalist? Given that the commended cutoff is 207, does your prediction change?
Thank you so much !
MA-Mom,
The Commended cutoff came in exactly as expected, so there has been no change to the predictions. I expect two-thirds of states will see no change or decreases. That’s probably a fair estimate for the chance of MA remaining at 220. Unfortunately, Massachusetts has a history of cutoffs above 220 even in “down” years.
My son received an index of 218 in the state of Iowa. What are your thoughts of him being a semi-finalist in September? If he becomes a semifinalist I had read that he would have to possibly take the SAT. Is that true? He did take the ACT and got a 35. Would that be enough?
Kellie,
Congratulations to your son! He will qualify as a Semifinalist. Several years ago NMSC began accepting ACT scores as “confirming” scores for the Finalist stage. The calculation gets a little tricky because of how NMSC ignores Science and combines English and Reading, but it won’t matter in your son’s case. A 35 will qualify. More information here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
Hi Art,
Do you have an article describe how finalists are selected from semi-finalist?
Jason,
I talk about it a bit here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
I’ve described it as a mini-college application process. Your SAT/ACT score will matter, but only to the extent that it fulfills the confirming score minimums. GPA (more accurately, your transcript) matters, but NMSC doesn’t provide a hard cutoff. Your essay and recommendation are also used in the process. Keep in mind that most (15,000 out of 16,000) Semifinalists become Finalists.
We live abroad and my child got a 216 Selection Index, and scored a 1590 on the subsequent SAT. Does it mean that she will not progress to the Semi Finalist List?
Baba,
Only the PSAT is used to determine Semifinalist status. For U.S. students living abroad, the cutoff is set to the highest state cutoff. Unfortunately, that means the cutoff this year will fall in the 221-223 range.
Hello Mr. Sawyer! I Received a 212 as my selection score in KY, what are my chances of becoming a semifinalist?
Garret,
Kentucky illustrates why it is difficult to pinpoint an exact cutoff score. The good news is that the state’s cutoff has remained at 212 that last 2 years. But it has moved as high as 218 as recently as the class of 2019. I still think your chances are at least 50/50.
How high does an ACT score need to be to be within the proper Selection Index scoring? My child had a 33 with Math being only 30, Reading 36, and English 35 . Will that suffice? Or should we plan on a retest?
Thanks!
Wendi,
Your student’s scores are high enough. The confirming score to qualify as a Finalist is generally set at the Commended score (207). In order to calculate the SI with an ACT score, you have to get the concordant score for the Math (30 -> 700) and for the combined English and Reading (71 -> 770). When calculating the SI, the highest a score can be is 760. ERW gets twice the weight of Math. So your student has a 222 SI (76 x 2 + 70).
https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
Hi,
I am a rising senior who has a 222 index score, and I live in Maryland. What are my chances for making the cutoff?
Jesse,
I think the most likely case is that Maryland will remain at 222. And I’d say that there is a greater chance of 221 than 223. So I’d put the odds at around 70%.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
I received a selection index of 219 in Oregon. What would you say are my chances of making senifinalist? In the article, it seems like you’re implying that an increase of 4 in Oregon would be somewhat unlikely. Thanks!
Andy,
This is an example of why trying to predict cutoffs can be maddening. You are right that 4-point increases are unusual. But so are 4-point drops, and that’s exactly what we saw last year in Oregon! Overall, I like your chances with a 219. I attribute the 220 cutoff in the class of 2022 to the high proportion of alternative entrants during the COVID cancellations. The only other times that Oregon’s cutoff has gone above 219 were when we saw high scores nationally. I think your odds are at least 80-90%.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
Thanks for the helpful information!
What do you think the chances of a 219 getting into semifinalist in Texas is this year? I know that you were saying 50/50 earlier, but wanted to understand the probability between the cutoff being 219 or 220 and what it depends on. Thanks!
Antony,
The cutoff is determined by hitting — as closely as possible — the target number of Texas Semifinalists. For example, let’s say that NMSC has calculated that Texas’ allocation of Semifinalists is 1,550. If 1,400 students scored 220 and higher and 1,650 scored 219 and higher, then the cutoff would be 219. But we don’t know either of the critical variables — the exact target or the exact distribution of scores. Even small changes in one or the other can move a cutoff by a point. In the last 9 years, we have had 6 with Commended cutoffs below 210. In 3 of those years, Texas’ cutoff was 220. In the 3 other years, the cutoff was 219. We simply don’t know enough to say much more than 50/50.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
When do letter go out to schools notifying them about their students that qualify as National Merit Semifinalist? After they are notified, is it up to the school as to when they notify the students? Thank you!
The letter likely go out this week, but I find that schools rarely do anything with them until after Labor Day. It’s possible that we’ll hear from some home schoolers before then. Many schools will wait until the press release that I believe will be on 9/13/ There are always a few schools that wait until after that, but we should know cutoffs by then.
Mr. Sawyer,
My student took the PSAT in Nevada and the Selection Index is 222. I imagine this puts them in a really good spot. Over the summer, however, we had to move from Nevada to New Mexico. Do you have any suggestions on how not to get notifications and information lost in the shuffle of not only moving schools but also moving states? Thank you so much!
ARM,
Yes, your student will qualify as a Semifinalist. Congratulations! Moves are not uncommon, so NMSC will be able to handle this. It does not confirm status until the official September announcement date (likely the 13th). You might try contacting your student’s Nevada school in the week before that announcement. They should have received letter by then, but some schools wait to distribute them. If you are having no luck, I would call NMSC after the 13th. Your daughter will be a Nevada Semifinalist, as National Merit follows the school where a student took the PSAT. You’ll want to track the process to make sure your daughter’s Finalist application gets sent to NMSC. But as I said, NMSC is well-practiced in this.
This has certainly put me at ease. I appreciate your prompt response. Thank you 🙂
Hello Mr. Sawyer:
I am new to the this whole process. My child has a 215 index in IL. Will that qualify for anything? Also a 1530 on the SAT, current senior.
Nikki,
Your daughter will be a Commended Student and should receive notification from her school in late September or early October. Her PSAT score is not quite high enough to qualify as a Semifinalist in Illinois.
My child had a 216 in Florida. What are the chances Florida stays at 216? Better than 50/50?
Abi,
I would have said 50/50, but my colleague in Florida knows more about the state than I do, and she is estimating 215. So if you listen to her, a 216 would probably have a 75% chance.