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National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2026

April 7, 2025: Commended cutoff at 210.
The Commended Student cutoff for the class of 2026 is confirmed at a Selection Index of 210. This was the exact level Compass projected in November based on PSAT results. This means that changes to our estimated ranges for Semifinalist cutoffs are minimal. The extreme edges — upper and lower — of our estimated ranges are a bit less probable, but the “Most Likely” scores are unchanged. The fact that Compass’s Commended cutoff estimate was correct, however, does not mean that the Semifinalist projections will prove just as accurate — there is always variability at the state level. Juniors scoring at or above 210 on the PSAT/NMSQT will be Commended Students or Semifinalists, but announcements are not made until September. Semifinalist cutoffs will not be revealed until late August or early September.

November 13: Updated with final wave of PSAT scores.
College Board released scores in three waves depending on when students took the PSAT. We have now received scores summaries for all three waves. It is possible that some late scores will still dribble in, but we are not expecting any changes. The results point to a strong upward trend in cutoffs for the class of 2026. You are welcome to jump to the table of estimates below, but we encourage students and families to read more about how we came to those estimates. For more information on the National Merit Program, in general, you may want to read Compass’s National Merit Scholarship Program Explained. If you want to browse almost two decades’ worth of cutoffs, you can find them in Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs.

What is a Semifinalist Cutoff?
Each year almost 17,000 juniors are named Semifinalists in the National Merit Scholarship Program and continue on in the hopes of being one of the 15,000 Finalists and, eventually, one of the 7,500 scholarship recipients. The score needed to qualify as a Semifinalist varies by state and is known as the “cutoff.” Every student scoring at or above the Semifinalist cutoff qualifies. The cutoff is not based on a student’s overall PSAT score but on the Selection Index. The Selection Index is listed on a student’s PSAT score report. It can be calculated by doubling the ERW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. For example, a 720 ERW / 730 M would have a Selection Index of (720 x 2 + 730)/10 = 217. For the class of 2025, cutoffs ranged from 208 to 223.

What is a Commended Student Cutoff?
If you performed well on the PSAT but do not qualify as a Semifinalist, you have the opportunity to be named as a Commended Student. Unlike the Semifinalist cutoffs, the Commended cutoff is set nationally. For last year’s class it was 208. Approximately 36,000 students are named Commended Students each year.

Why does Compass believe that we are likely to see cutoffs, as a whole, go up?
College Board releases very little data about score distribution. The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. While we do not know the number of students scoring at a particular Selection Index, we do know the number of students scoring in the 1400-1520 range, which roughly correlates to Selection Indexes of 210-228. The class of 2026 ranks 4th in the ten years since the PSAT scoring was overhauled, and this year sees the highest ever percentage of top scores. The number of Semifinalists and Commended students are capped, so cutoffs are likely to rise. But not all cutoffs. The numbers we have seen are at the national level and there is always churn at the state level. What we believe, however, is that more cutoffs will go up than down.

There is a good correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score. We believe that the Commended cutoff will come in between 209 and 211, with a 210 being most likely. Based on our historical archive of Semifinalist and Commended cutoffs, we believe that the average Semifinalist cutoff will go up this year.

Will I find out my status right away?
No. In fact, students don’t learn of Semifinalist status until September of senior year. Compass tracks data on current year performance and historical records to provides estimates and updates between PSAT score release and the Semifinalist announcements. Last year — the first year of the digital PSAT — saw a noticeable uptick in scores. Only one state — South Dakota — saw a lower cutoff versus the previous year’s. Was this a onetime quirk? Based on early results for the class of 2026, we do not believe that it was. The upward trend — whether due to the new test format, recovery from COVID-era learning loss, or other factors — appears to be continuing.

One mistake students make is thinking that the cutoff for one year will be the same in the next year. Cutoffs change every year, sometimes by as much as 5 or 6 points (granted, that’s unusual). Compass emphasizes an Estimated Range, which is likely to include the ultimate cutoff. Within that range, we do provide our Most Likely. That score represents our best estimate based on the known factors, but there are many unknown factors. Most of our PSAT performance data are for national results. So we can usually peg the Commended cutoff within a point or two. States, however, can move in different directions. More Alaskan students may test this year. Some strong Rhode Island prep schools may have decided to stop offering the PSAT. A COVID outbreak in Montana could mean more students using Alternate Entry and entering the competition using SAT scores. Below is a table that shows how many states in each of the last 17 years saw increases, decreases, or no change. There has never been a year where even half of all state cutoffs remain unchanged.

The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red).

Historically, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Over the decade from 2015 – 2024, Semifinalist cutoffs remained unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Distribution of year-over-year cutoff changes shows that there is a roughly normal distribution, with no change occurring 30% of the time.

We believe that a table of results from this class will skew to the right.

Small states have more volatile cutoffs than large states, but there can be surprises across the board. The PSAT had a significant overhaul in scoring in 2017. If we look at the minimum and maximum cutoffs during the 9-year period from then until the class of 2025, we see that the 13 largest states (about 100,000 or more high school graduates) average a 2.8-point differential. New Jersey has a 1-point differential, since its lowest cutoff is 222 and highest is 223. The smallest states (fewer than 30,000 graduates) have a 6.2 point differential. Alaska has been as low as 208 and as high as 217! The medium-sized states average a 5-point difference between minimum and maximum.

Here are Compass’s current estimates for Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2026:


State
Class of 2026
Estimated Range
Class of 2026
Most Likely
Class of 2025
(Actual)
Class of 2024
(Actual)
Class of 2023
(Actual)
# of 2025 Semifinalists
Alabama210 - 216214212210212267
Alaska210 - 21621421420921036
Arizona215 - 220218217216214401
Arkansas210 - 215213213210210134
California220 - 2232222212212202103
Colorado216 - 221218218216217272
Connecticut220 - 222221221221221177
Delaware218 - 22122021921921843
District of Columbia222 - 22422322322322347
Florida216 - 220218217216216972
Georgia217 - 221219218217218624
Hawaii215 - 22021821721721574
Idaho212 - 217214213211215102
Illinois218 - 222220220219219738
Indiana214 - 219217217216214304
Iowa211 - 217214212210212156
Kansas213 - 219216215214214142
Kentucky211 - 217214213211212202
Louisiana212 - 217215214214213238
Maine212 - 21721521421321553
Maryland221 - 224222222221222296
Massachusetts221 - 224223223222220294
Michigan216 - 220218218217218511
Minnesota216 - 220218217216216288
Mississippi210 - 215213212209210155
Missouri214 - 218216215214213276
Montana208 - 21321020920920745
Nebraska210 - 216213211210212118
Nevada211 - 218215214211210162
New Hampshire214 - 21921721721521355
New Jersey222 - 224223223223223474
New Mexico209 - 21521221120720894
New York219 - 2212202202202191089
North Carolina216 - 220218218217217518
North Dakota209 - 21321021020720928
Ohio215 - 219217217216216582
Oklahoma209 - 215212211208211214
Oregon215 - 220217216216216205
Pennsylvania217 - 221219219219218583
Rhode Island213 - 22021721721521650
South Carolina210 - 217215214209213234
South Dakota209 - 21421120820921241
Tennessee215 - 219218217217215319
Texas218 - 2212202192192191714
Utah210 - 216213211209211195
Vermont211 - 21721521521221333
Virginia220 - 223222222219221394
Washington220 - 223221222220220358
West Virginia209 - 21221020920720766
Wisconsin213 - 217215214213213289
Wyoming209 - 21321120920720724
​U.S. Territories209 - 21121020820720745
​​Studying Abroad222 - 224223223223223112
​​​Commended209 - 211210208207207

If you’d like to see even more historical data, you can find cutoffs going back to 2008 in Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs.

Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.

NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for a state. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale.

What if I missed the PSAT because of illness or other legitimate reason?
You may still be able to enter the scholarship program by applying for Alternate Entry using an SAT score. Find information about last year’s process in Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 53,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

4,430 Comments

  • Tracey says:

    Hello – My son got a PSAT of 210 but then got a SAT of 1570. It sounds like he will only get a commendation based on what I’m reading. I am in NJ. Is that correct?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Tracey,
      That’s correct. NJ is the toughest state in the country. There are many students who would trade NMSF for a 1570 on the SAT. Congratulations!

  • Ketan says:

    Hey. I have a 219 in Texas. What are my chances?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Ketan,
      I think your chances are right around 50/50 (arguably a bit better than that). The good news is that TX was at 219 last year. The less good news is that it has hit 220 even in years where the Commended cutoff has been low (under 210).

  • Jenn says:

    What are the odds for a 212 in Mississippi?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jenn,
      The last two years we have seen Commended cutoffs of 208 and 207. In one of those years Mississippi’s Semifinalist cutoff was 213 and in the other it was 210. That sort of sums up why I think it’s about 50/50.

  • Harold says:

    If alternate SAT for NMSP was taken this June, would the student be included in the list for semifinalists that will come out this September? Score is above projected semifinalist cutoff and has been sent to NMSP, alternate entry form also submitted to NMSP.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Harold,
      I’m not sure. Most alternate entry students are announced along with the rest of the Semifinalists, but that may simply be because most have sent scores for earlier test dates. Since NMSC allows scores to arrive as late as October, it clearly has some Semifinalists who are not notified until after the initial batch of announcements.

  • Jonah says:

    Hi Mr Sawyer,
    I received a selection index score of 217. I live in Colorado. Given the Commended cut-off of 207, what do you think are my chances of making semifinalist? Better than 60%? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jonah,
      I’d say somewhere between 60% and 75%. While things have been steady the last few years, a 1-point change upward can happen even in years where the Commended cutoff remains unchanged.

  • Caden says:

    What are the chances I make it with 220 index score in Texas?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Caden,
      I think they are strong (80%+). We’ve only seen TX hit 221 in years where the Commended cutoff was at least 212. But because Texas has hovered in the 219/220 range, I don’t think we can completely rule it out. Good luck!

  • Cecile says:

    If I have a 220 in Minnesota, what are my chances at getting National Merit Semifinalist

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Cecile,
      We’ve never seen a cutoff above 220 in MN, and there is no reason to think we will this year. Congratulations!

  • Emma says:

    Hi, what is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 217 selection index in Florida for the class of 2024?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Emma,
      I think the chances are quite good (80%+?). It’s unlikely that we’ll see many (or any) large states see 2-point increases this year.

  • Harsha says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer!

    I have scored a 218 Selection Index Score in Ohio through the Alternate Entry Form from NMSC. I turned in this form and SAT score in the beginning of July. Is the “early enough” for me to know whether or not I qualified for National Merit in September?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Harsha,
      You’d need to direct this question to NMSC. I’m not sure what their deadlines are for announcements when it comes to Alternate Entry. If a 218 qualifies in Ohio, you will qualify as a Semifinalist. Whether your name is announced or not in September, I’m not sure.

      • Harsha says:

        Hello Mr. Sawyer!

        Thank you for the information! I asked NMSC and they told me that I will know whether I qualified in September along with the other qualifiers. What do you believe are my chances to qualify as a Semifinalist with a 218 in Ohio?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Great! Thank you for sharing the information. You are in an excellent position with a 218. We’ve only seen Ohio’s cutoff hit 219 in years where the Commended cutoff was 4-5 points higher than it is this year. I’d put your odds above 90%.

  • Grace says:

    Hello,
    Last year Illinois index score was 219 and What are the chances I make it with 219 this year? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Grace,
      I expect cutoffs to be fairly stable this year, meaning that two-thirds will see no change or a decline. The Illinois cutoff has only gone above 219 in years where the Commended cutoff has been over 210. I’d put the odds of a 219 qualifying at 75-80%.

  • s says:

    chances with a 224 in new york?

  • Austin says:

    Hi! My index was 221 and I live in VA. What would you estimate my chances to be? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Austin,
      As you probably know, Virginia usually has one of the highest cutoffs in the country. The good news is that the cutoff has been fairly stable. It has only moved in the 220 – 222 range in the last 10 years. I’d put the odds of a 221 qualifying at about 80% or better.

  • MA-Mom says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,
    What are the odds of a SI of 220 in Massachusetts qualifying for semifinalist? Given that the commended cutoff is 207, does your prediction change?

    Thank you so much !

    • Art Sawyer says:

      MA-Mom,
      The Commended cutoff came in exactly as expected, so there has been no change to the predictions. I expect two-thirds of states will see no change or decreases. That’s probably a fair estimate for the chance of MA remaining at 220. Unfortunately, Massachusetts has a history of cutoffs above 220 even in “down” years.

  • Kellie says:

    My son received an index of 218 in the state of Iowa. What are your thoughts of him being a semi-finalist in September? If he becomes a semifinalist I had read that he would have to possibly take the SAT. Is that true? He did take the ACT and got a 35. Would that be enough?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kellie,
      Congratulations to your son! He will qualify as a Semifinalist. Several years ago NMSC began accepting ACT scores as “confirming” scores for the Finalist stage. The calculation gets a little tricky because of how NMSC ignores Science and combines English and Reading, but it won’t matter in your son’s case. A 35 will qualify. More information here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/

  • Jason says:

    Hi Art,
    Do you have an article describe how finalists are selected from semi-finalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jason,
      I talk about it a bit here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/

      I’ve described it as a mini-college application process. Your SAT/ACT score will matter, but only to the extent that it fulfills the confirming score minimums. GPA (more accurately, your transcript) matters, but NMSC doesn’t provide a hard cutoff. Your essay and recommendation are also used in the process. Keep in mind that most (15,000 out of 16,000) Semifinalists become Finalists.

  • Baba says:

    We live abroad and my child got a 216 Selection Index, and scored a 1590 on the subsequent SAT. Does it mean that she will not progress to the Semi Finalist List?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Baba,
      Only the PSAT is used to determine Semifinalist status. For U.S. students living abroad, the cutoff is set to the highest state cutoff. Unfortunately, that means the cutoff this year will fall in the 221-223 range.

  • Garret says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer! I Received a 212 as my selection score in KY, what are my chances of becoming a semifinalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Garret,
      Kentucky illustrates why it is difficult to pinpoint an exact cutoff score. The good news is that the state’s cutoff has remained at 212 that last 2 years. But it has moved as high as 218 as recently as the class of 2019. I still think your chances are at least 50/50.

  • Wendi says:

    How high does an ACT score need to be to be within the proper Selection Index scoring? My child had a 33 with Math being only 30, Reading 36, and English 35 . Will that suffice? Or should we plan on a retest?
    Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Wendi,
      Your student’s scores are high enough. The confirming score to qualify as a Finalist is generally set at the Commended score (207). In order to calculate the SI with an ACT score, you have to get the concordant score for the Math (30 -> 700) and for the combined English and Reading (71 -> 770). When calculating the SI, the highest a score can be is 760. ERW gets twice the weight of Math. So your student has a 222 SI (76 x 2 + 70).
      https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/

  • Jesse says:

    Hi,

    I am a rising senior who has a 222 index score, and I live in Maryland. What are my chances for making the cutoff?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jesse,
      I think the most likely case is that Maryland will remain at 222. And I’d say that there is a greater chance of 221 than 223. So I’d put the odds at around 70%.

  • Andy says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer,

    I received a selection index of 219 in Oregon. What would you say are my chances of making senifinalist? In the article, it seems like you’re implying that an increase of 4 in Oregon would be somewhat unlikely. Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Andy,
      This is an example of why trying to predict cutoffs can be maddening. You are right that 4-point increases are unusual. But so are 4-point drops, and that’s exactly what we saw last year in Oregon! Overall, I like your chances with a 219. I attribute the 220 cutoff in the class of 2022 to the high proportion of alternative entrants during the COVID cancellations. The only other times that Oregon’s cutoff has gone above 219 were when we saw high scores nationally. I think your odds are at least 80-90%.

  • Antony says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer!

    Thanks for the helpful information!

    What do you think the chances of a 219 getting into semifinalist in Texas is this year? I know that you were saying 50/50 earlier, but wanted to understand the probability between the cutoff being 219 or 220 and what it depends on. Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Antony,
      The cutoff is determined by hitting — as closely as possible — the target number of Texas Semifinalists. For example, let’s say that NMSC has calculated that Texas’ allocation of Semifinalists is 1,550. If 1,400 students scored 220 and higher and 1,650 scored 219 and higher, then the cutoff would be 219. But we don’t know either of the critical variables — the exact target or the exact distribution of scores. Even small changes in one or the other can move a cutoff by a point. In the last 9 years, we have had 6 with Commended cutoffs below 210. In 3 of those years, Texas’ cutoff was 220. In the 3 other years, the cutoff was 219. We simply don’t know enough to say much more than 50/50.

  • Kaleigh says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,

    When do letter go out to schools notifying them about their students that qualify as National Merit Semifinalist? After they are notified, is it up to the school as to when they notify the students? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      The letter likely go out this week, but I find that schools rarely do anything with them until after Labor Day. It’s possible that we’ll hear from some home schoolers before then. Many schools will wait until the press release that I believe will be on 9/13/ There are always a few schools that wait until after that, but we should know cutoffs by then.

  • Ah_RealMomster says:

    Mr. Sawyer,

    My student took the PSAT in Nevada and the Selection Index is 222. I imagine this puts them in a really good spot. Over the summer, however, we had to move from Nevada to New Mexico. Do you have any suggestions on how not to get notifications and information lost in the shuffle of not only moving schools but also moving states? Thank you so much!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      ARM,
      Yes, your student will qualify as a Semifinalist. Congratulations! Moves are not uncommon, so NMSC will be able to handle this. It does not confirm status until the official September announcement date (likely the 13th). You might try contacting your student’s Nevada school in the week before that announcement. They should have received letter by then, but some schools wait to distribute them. If you are having no luck, I would call NMSC after the 13th. Your daughter will be a Nevada Semifinalist, as National Merit follows the school where a student took the PSAT. You’ll want to track the process to make sure your daughter’s Finalist application gets sent to NMSC. But as I said, NMSC is well-practiced in this.

  • Nikki says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer:

    I am new to the this whole process. My child has a 215 index in IL. Will that qualify for anything? Also a 1530 on the SAT, current senior.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Nikki,
      Your daughter will be a Commended Student and should receive notification from her school in late September or early October. Her PSAT score is not quite high enough to qualify as a Semifinalist in Illinois.

  • Abi says:

    My child had a 216 in Florida. What are the chances Florida stays at 216? Better than 50/50?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Abi,
      I would have said 50/50, but my colleague in Florida knows more about the state than I do, and she is estimating 215. So if you listen to her, a 216 would probably have a 75% chance.

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