Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Just found out that a 220 qualifies in GA (could well be lower). Thanks for all the updates.
Thank you, Ross! That’s great to know.
florida updates? any updates?
Just confirmed 217 as the cutoff for Florida this year.
What do you think about a 213 in Louisiana? What are the odds that that it goes down this year?
Thomas,
I just published results. Unfortunately, only 1 state (South Dakota) saw a decrease this year. Louisiana’s cutoff remained at 214.
Hi Art, do you think 215 in Florida has a chance? Thank you
A.N.,
I just now published results that show Florida’s cutoff hit 217 this year.
Hi Art,
How sure are you of this report. My son got a 216 in Florida and we have not heard back from his school so we are just making sure that 217 is the cutoff for semifinalist. Thank you for all that you have done during this process.
John,
Quite sure. Your son did a great job and will be a Commended Student. Many schools don’t announce anything until the press announcement on September 11th. Commended Students often need to wait a bit longer, because NMSC mails those letters to schools only after Semifinalists are announced.
Hi Art
Is this score final or preliminary. I called national merit office and they said that they will only announce on 09/11
Sam,
Results are announced by NMSC on 9/11. In most cases, schools already have the results from their students, but many choose to wait. The numbers released on 9/11 will match the numbers here. These are not estimates.
To become a National Merit Finalist, does a National Merit Semifinalist need to take the SAT, or is the ACT sufficient if additional criteria are met?
The ACT is sufficient (NMSC added it several years ago as an option). Check out my FAQ on how to calculate a Selection Index with an ACT score, as it gets confusing.
Hi Art,
What are my chances of qualifying as semi-finalist in Indiana with an index score of 216? Since 216 was the cutoff last year and the digital PSAT caused the commended cutoff to increase, are my chances slim?
IN,
Unfortunately, Indiana’s cutoff came in at 217 this year.
Hi Art, in reading posts from previous years there is reference to a chart that you updated for each state as you got cutoff information (>=* etc). Will you be doing that again this year, and if so where would I find that? Thanks again for all your stellar efforts for us anxious parents and students. 😃
Eric,
Updates just posted. Thank you for the kind words.
Are these the actual cutoff scores or just updated expected cutoff scores? Crossing fingers Texas is 219!
Actual. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
What minimum corresponding SAT score do we have to get in order to be eligible for finalist in the event we make it to being semifinalist. Right now, my highest SAT score is a 1460 – 1470 if superscored. I want to apply, but not sure I will be in the running for the next step.
Hillie,
I discuss this more in another post. First, NM does not superscore. They will look at your best results from a single test date. The threshold is usually set at the Commended level (208 this year). So take your SAT scores and convert them into a Selection Index like you would a PSAT score: double the RW, add the math, drop a 0. NM will use the best one. Just remember to send them an official score report from College Board!
Thank you Art
My son made the cutoff. He also just received his results from his last SAT and it was his best score.
Should we wait until he has an NMSC account before sending his SAT scores to NMSC?
John,
Double congratulations! NMSC will be able to match his scores, even if you send them now.
I am assuming we can send All of the test dates for both ACT and SAT to NMSC?
Using your calculator it turns out his finest ACT has a higher SSI (234) than the SAT (230)
I can either:
1. Send All scores (SAT and ACT ) and let NMSC sort it all out
2. Send the highest score for both tests.
Thank you
There is no wrong answer here, because all of the scores easily clear the bar. I’d probably opt for simplicity and go with #3: Send the top ACT score (it’s higher than the SAT score and there is no need to send more than one date). Choosing #1 or #2 will end up with the same result, just with some extra fees.
Hi Art. My son qualified as a semifinalist and is filling out his application and wants to send his SAT scores in but we are not seeing exactly what the qualifying SAT score is in the application or the information that was provided. How can we obtain that information? His SAT score is above the commended 208 but wants to verify before sending. I am assuming it is set around the commended due to the variations in cutoffs for semifinalists throughout the country and beyond. Thank you for all of your help and guidance with this. It is a little daunting making sure we are doing everything correctly.
JK,
I would recommend calling National Merit to get confirmation. Yes, it is usually set at the Commended level, but I don’t want to state that definitively until I’ve heard it confirmed for this year. Sending scores that are too low is not a negative — NMSC doesn’t hold it against anyone — but of course your son would need to retest if the SAT scores end up being below the confirming cutoff.
Thank you so much Art. Just read the update and glad to let you know my daughter made it in TX with score of 219.
Congratulations to your daughter, Ron! Best of luck for the next stage.
Hi Art,
Is it officially posted anywhere ? My kid is exactly 223 from NJ. I was very nervous for a while fearing what if the cutoff jumps 1point upward in the range. If she is exactly 223, please confirm she qualifies as a semifinalist. Thank you for keeping us updated instantly.
Paddy,
If she is at 223, she will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hello Art,
Do you happen to know if there is any change for the essay prompt? (As compared to your FAQ?)
Scott,
I haven’t heard from any Semifinalists yet to confirm it for the class of 2025 (please stop back in once you know!). But I’ve been doing this a long time, and the prompt has never changed.
Essay Prompt seems exactly the same.
Thank you, OK Dad! That gives a nice heads-up to those who haven’t been notified yet.
Where do we see this if we haven’t been notified?
John,
You’ll receive login information once you get the letter from your school. Here is the prompt:
“To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.”
Thank you Art for your analysis and service every year. My student made it in Illinois and we didn’t expect a jump of one point 🙃. For my other student few years ago the cut off was quite a few points lower. I wonder if this will cause fewer in Illinois to qualify or this means more students fared well. Either way congrats to all who made it and those who didn’t no worries things work out well anyways.
Shweta,
Congratulations to your student! It probably leans more to the “Illinois students fared well” or more students took the test. NMSC has a target number of students that qualify each year in Illinois (although it can’t match that target exactly given the all or nothing nature of a cutoff).
Your article suggests that the NJ cutoff increased this year (“There were no new records this year, although four states did tie their previous highs: Massachusetts (+1) New Jersey (+1), Virginia (+3), and Washington (+2).” However, the table indicates that NJ is the same as prior year (223). Can you clarify?
Good catch! The parenthetical should be “(unchanged).” New Jersey’s cutoff is 223. The table is accurate. In my rush to get things out, I did the math in that sentence based on NJ’s 222 previous low rather than on the previous year’s cutoff. Fixed.
Hello Art,
Is the essay prompt similar in nature to the Common App essay?
It’s very general, so the Common App essay can often be tailored to work. In previous years it has remained: “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.”
We are from Maryland and my kid’s score is 222. Is he in? We have not heard anything from the school yet.
MG,
Congratulations to your student! It’s back-to-school time, so many schools are just now receiving and processing the information (it still goes by snail mail). Many also choose to wait until September 11th to make the announcement.
Now that the dust has settled, I just want to thank you again for all of the information and support you provide. Having a calm, scientific mind bring sense to this process has been much appreciated. Still not sure why we have to be tortured with the uncertainty for 11 months, but I’m very thankful you were there to help guide us. Thank you!
Thank you, PK. One of the reasons I started doing this was because of how “Wild West” it was many years ago.
Hi Art,
Got a 222 and I’m a US citizen living abroad. Is it at all possible to qualify anyway for Semi-Finalist? Either way, happy that I at least have Commended.
Liz,
Students studying abroad face such a high bar every year. Unfortunately, the 223 cutoff this year means that your score falls just short of qualifying for Semifinalist status. Yes, you should be proud of your score and your Commended Student achievement. And I have to imagine that your experience living abroad opens up all kind of college opportunities.
Hey Art I know you’ve gotten this question a million times by now but I got a 211 in Oklahoma which is the exact cutoff you posted here. Are you absolutely certain that these cutoffs are true? Sorry for being so paranoid, I just want to be certain before celebrating! Thank you so much for the work that you’re doing.
A/N,
Certain. Congratulations!
Thank you so much!! Thrilled and so relieved.
How long will it be until schools notify students? Here it says I qualified but I haven’t heard anything from school.
Cameron,
It’s up to the school, but many will wait until September 11th, which is when the press embargo ends. If you don’t hear by the 12th, you can ask your college counselor. If you aren’t able to get an answer from your school, you can call NMSC, but they will definitely not give out the information before the 11th.
Hi Art,
Do you have any info on the number of alternate entry applicants this year? With it being the first year of digital testing and all the technical/connection difficulties that high schools across the country experienced last fall, I wonder if that led to an unusually high number of alternate entries and thus the higher than expected cut-offs.
Curious,
Interesting. That’s not a number that I’ve ever seen released, although we will have a partial proxy. When NMSC sends out the student lists to press outlets, it includes a code for the intended field of study. That’s something students have the opportunity to fill out on the day of the PSAT. It ends up as 000 for most students unable to take the PSAT. AFAIK, not all 000s are AE and not all AEs are 000, but it gives a rough idea. We won’t see those show up until next week. [An historical example.]
There is not a sure tell in the cutoffs. We didn’t see, in other words, the equivalent of MD=224 from 2021. We saw enough students scoring above 1400 on the actual PSAT that the overall score levels are not out of whack. They were puzzling in light of the 208 Commended level. And AE doesn’t help much to explain the odd SD/WV/WY outcome. Maybe I’ll change my tune if we see a disproportionate number of 000s in WV/WY.
My thinking is the commended score was determined last spring *before* the window closed for AE score submission in June. Perhaps I’m going too far down the rabbit hole!
Rabbit holes can be fun. You are correct that Commended is determined before AE. The number of students with PSAT scores — 1,490,000 — tells me that the outages were not widespread enough to cause large disruptions. It’s also true that the disruptions don’t have to be large — the right students at the right schools missing the PSAT would increase the level of high-scoring AE students. My point is simply that I don’t think we need to turn to AE to explain the cutoffs. With 50,600 1400+ scorers, this year looked a lot like the class of 2021, which would be a bit closer to where the cutoffs were for the class of 2025. Could AE have caused the extra bump in states like VA and WA? Possibly.
Hi Art, are these cutoffs final for 2025 or there might be a change until the school announces it?
My daughter has selection index 224 in California and she says she did not get the ‘slip’ for National Merit from school which apparently other students got.
Elana,
Yes, they are final. I would wait until Wednesday and then follow up with the school. There could be a simple reason why she was overlooked in the initial notices. Her online PSAT report will flag whether or not National Merit considers her as eligible based on her class year (for example, some students may have the wrong year listed). What I want to emphasize is that any such problems can be dealt with — and NMSC sees plenty of them every year. Start with the school. If you run into problems, contact NMSC to confirm your daughter’s status. California is a state where we often see the full published list, so you may want to turn to Google on Wednesday. But if she is a junior with a 224, she will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Thanks Art. I will wait until Wednesday.
Is the list officially out anywhere ? Our School in NJ has not announced anything yet. I see a list populated for Texas state online.
Paddy,
No, NMSC does not do a dump of all lists. Instead, it lets press outlets decide on what to publish. I recommend checking on the progress at https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/, which already has a few state lists linked.
Art, Where is the list of semifinalists posted?
Dave,
There is not a national list. There are state lists, but NMSC does not publish them directly. They send out each state list to local press outlets. It is completely up to the press outlet whether or not to publish at all, publish the entire list, or publish the names of local students. It can be difficult to find complete lists. I recommend checking https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/, which already has a few state lists linked.
Hi Art,
My daughter had food poisoning the day of the PSAT and went alternate entry. She took the SAT in November 2023. She scored a 730 verbal and 800 math. I called National Merit and was told they cap at 760 and double verbal and add math. That gives her a 222. We are in Maryland. We learned today that she did not make semifinalist, but rather commended. I called and they said that is not how they calculate alternate entry. They cap each individual section at 38. She had a 40 in Math, 39 in Writing, and 34 in Reading. Capping each at 38 that adds up to 110 and then they double that. Did they change the rules? We are so disappointed!
Mom,
I’m so sorry to hear that this happened to your daughter. I think I have an idea of how this happened, and it revolves around the timeline of when the PSAT went digital and when the SAT went digital.
The correct calculation of a digital PSAT and digital SAT Selection Index is (2RW + M)/10, where RW and M are capped at 760. There is no longer such a thing as separate R and W scores. So the representative you spoke to may have been thinking of that formula. But when the PSAT was still paper, the formula was (R + W + M) x 2. For the PSAT, the result is identical to the new formula. That is not true of the paper SAT, because it is correct that under that formula, each section is capped at 38. Your daughter’s Nov 2023 SAT was, of course, paper. I would at least try to make an appeal to NMSC that it is unfair that they are using different formulas for the PSAT and SAT for the class of 2025. Alas, I’m not optimistic.
Thanks for the quick response. Prior to digital, if you had an alternate entry, was it calculated using the 38 cap?
Yes, as was the PSAT SI prior to Oct 2023. This is the first class where the digital/paper divide has ever arisen.
I just looked back at the Guide to the National Merit Scholarship Program published September 2023. Each year when results are published, NMSC also talks about the rules for the upcoming year. They do, indeed, give the (2xRW + M)/10 formula for the Oct 2023 PSAT. In the section on Alternate Entry, NMSC does not discuss the details of how paper and digital SATs will be handled. Unless the AE instructions included the calculation for the paper SAT, then I do feel that you were misled. Again, I understand why NMSC did what they did, but I’m a big believer in transparency. And all of that aside, congratulations to your daughter for a fabulous SAT score!
“Program recognition
Beginning in October 2023, the psat/nmsqt will be administered digitally. Students will receive a Reading and Writing section score and a Math section score instead of Reading, Writing and Language, and Math Test scores. To maintain consistency with the range of Selection Index scores from prior years, nmsc will compute 2023 psat/nmsqt Selection Index scores by doubling the Reading and
Writing section score, adding the Math section score, and dividing the total by 10. Score levels sufficient for recognition vary from year to year and from state to state; those for the 2024 competition are given on pages 13–14.”
Hi Art. Just wanted to say thank you for the amazing job you do with this website, especially regarding the PSAT/NMSQT info. Today is the day that semifinalists are announced for the Class of 2025. Two years ago my daughter was a semifinalist, and your information correctly predicted it! Any parent/student who needs info about the NMS needs to look no further than this site. Thank you again, and congrats to all of this year’s semifinalists!
Thank you, Don! And this is not even a paid endorsement. 😉