Note on upcoming events: What’s a good PSAT score and what does your score mean for you? Learn about your next steps at our presentation on November 14th led by Compass Co-Founder Adam Ingersoll. These review sessions are especially recommended for the parents and guardians of students who took the digital adaptive PSAT in October 2024.
Updated with test taker data through October 26th
We have now received scores from an estimated 85% of class of 2026 PSAT takers, and the results point to a strong upward trend in cutoffs. The final wave of scores will be released to students on November 14th, and we expect to have further updates. You are welcome to jump to the table of estimates below, but we encourage students and families to read more about how we came to those estimates. For more information on the National Merit Program, in general, you may want to read Compass’s National Merit Scholarship Program Explained.
What is a Semifinalist Cutoff?
Each year almost 17,000 juniors are named Semifinalists in the National Merit Scholarship Program and continue on in the hopes of being one of the 15,000 Finalists and, eventually, one of the 7,500 scholarship recipients. The score needed to qualify as a Semifinalist varies by state and is known as the “cutoff.” Every student scoring at or above the Semifinalist cutoff qualifies. The cutoff is not based on a student’s overall PSAT score but on the Selection Index. The Selection Index is listed on a student’s PSAT score report. It can be calculated by doubling the ERW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. For example, a 720 ERW / 730 M would have a Selection Index of (720 x 2 + 730)/10 = 217. For the class of 2025, cutoffs ranged from 208 to 223.
What is a Commended Student Cutoff?
If you performed well on the PSAT but do not qualify as a Semifinalist, you have the opportunity to be named as a Commended Student. Unlike the Semifinalist cutoffs, the Commended cutoff is set nationally. For last year’s class it was 208. Approximately 36,000 students are named Commended Students each year.
Why does Compass believe that we are likely to see cutoffs, as a whole, go up?
Data from the first 1.3M PSAT takers point to a blockbuster year for student scores. And since the number of Semifinalists and Commended Students are capped, cutoffs are likely to rise. But not all cutoffs. The numbers we have seen are at the national level and there is always churn at the state level. What we believe, however, is that more cutoffs will go up than down.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. While we do not know the number of students scoring at a particular Selection Index, we do know the number of students scoring in the 1400-1520 range, which roughly correlates to Selection Indexes of 210-228. Even with a final wave of scores yet to come, the class of 2026 ranks 4th out of 10 on this measure.
The percentage of 1400-1520 scorers is the highest we have ever seen. That figure is likely to decline, as the last set of test takers typically includes fewer top scores. Still, the number of 1400+ scorers is likely to cross 60,000. There is a good correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score. While the Commended cutoff might come in anywhere from 209 to 212, Compass’s current estimate is 210. Based on our historical archive of Semifinalist and Commended cutoffs, we believe that the average cutoff will go up this year.
Will I find out my status right away?
No. In fact, students don’t learn of Semifinalist status until September of senior year. Compass tracks data on current year performance and historical records to provides estimates and updates between PSAT score release and the Semifinalist announcements. Last year — the first year of the digital PSAT — saw a noticeable uptick in scores. Only one state — South Dakota — saw a lower cutoff versus the previous year’s. Was this a onetime quirk? Based on early results for the class of 2026, we do not believe that it was. The upward trend — whether due to the new test format, recovery from COVID-era learning loss, or other factors — appears to be continuing.
One mistake students make is thinking that the cutoff for one year will be the same in the next year. Cutoffs change every year, sometimes by as much as 5 or 6 points (granted, that’s unusual). Compass emphasizes an Estimated Range, which will likely include the ultimate cutoff. Within that range, we do provide our “Most Likely.” That score represents our best estimate based on the known factors, but there are many unknown factors. Most of our PSAT performance data is for national results. So we can usually peg the Commended cutoff within a point or two. States, however, can move in different directions. More Alaskan students may test this year. Some strong Rhode Island prep schools may have decided to stop offering the PSAT. A COVID outbreak in Montana could mean more students using Alternate Entry and entering the competition using SAT scores. Below is a table that shows how many states in each of the last 17 years saw increases, decreases, or no change. There has never been a year where even half of all state cutoffs remain unchanged.
The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red).
Historically, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Over the decade from 2015 – 2024, Semifinalist cutoffs remained unchanged only about one-third of the time.
We believe that a table of results from this class will skew to the right.
Small states have more volatile cutoffs than large states, but there can be surprises across the board. The PSAT had a significant overhaul in scoring in 2017. If we look at the minimum and maximum cutoffs during the 9-year period from then until the class of 2025, we see that the 13 largest states (about 100,000 or more high school graduates) average a 2.8 point differential. New Jersey has a 1 point differential, since its lowest cutoff is 222 and highest is 223. The smallest states (fewer than 30,000 graduates) have a 6.2 point differential. Alaska has been as low as 208 and as high as 217! The medium-sized states average a 5 point difference between minimum and maximum.
Here are Compass’s current estimates for Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2026:
State | Estimated Range | Most Likely | Class of 2025 | Class of 2024 | Class of 2023 | # of 2025 Semifinalists |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 210 - 216 | 213 | 212 | 210 | 212 | 267 |
Alaska | 209 - 216 | 213 | 214 | 209 | 210 | 36 |
Arizona | 214 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 216 | 214 | 401 |
Arkansas | 210 - 215 | 213 | 213 | 210 | 210 | 134 |
California | 220 - 223 | 221 | 221 | 221 | 220 | 2103 |
Colorado | 215 - 221 | 218 | 218 | 216 | 217 | 272 |
Connecticut | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 221 | 221 | 177 |
Delaware | 217 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 218 | 43 |
District of Columbia | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 47 |
Florida | 215 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 216 | 972 |
Georgia | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 217 | 218 | 624 |
Hawaii | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 217 | 215 | 74 |
Idaho | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 215 | 102 |
Illinois | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 738 |
Indiana | 214 - 219 | 217 | 217 | 216 | 214 | 304 |
Iowa | 210 - 216 | 213 | 212 | 210 | 212 | 156 |
Kansas | 213 - 219 | 215 | 215 | 214 | 214 | 142 |
Kentucky | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 212 | 202 |
Louisiana | 212 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 214 | 213 | 238 |
Maine | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 213 | 215 | 53 |
Maryland | 221 - 224 | 222 | 222 | 221 | 222 | 296 |
Massachusetts | 221 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 | 220 | 294 |
Michigan | 216 - 220 | 218 | 218 | 217 | 218 | 511 |
Minnesota | 216 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 216 | 288 |
Mississippi | 209 - 214 | 212 | 212 | 209 | 210 | 155 |
Missouri | 213 - 218 | 215 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 276 |
Montana | 208 - 213 | 210 | 209 | 209 | 207 | 45 |
Nebraska | 209 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 210 | 212 | 118 |
Nevada | 210 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 162 |
New Hampshire | 213 - 219 | 216 | 217 | 215 | 213 | 55 |
New Jersey | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 474 |
New Mexico | 208 - 214 | 211 | 211 | 207 | 208 | 94 |
New York | 219 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 219 | 1089 |
North Carolina | 216 - 220 | 218 | 218 | 217 | 217 | 518 |
North Dakota | 208 - 213 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 209 | 28 |
Ohio | 215 - 219 | 217 | 217 | 216 | 216 | 582 |
Oklahoma | 208 - 215 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 211 | 214 |
Oregon | 215 - 220 | 217 | 216 | 216 | 216 | 205 |
Pennsylvania | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 218 | 583 |
Rhode Island | 213 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 215 | 216 | 50 |
South Carolina | 209 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 209 | 213 | 234 |
South Dakota | 208 - 214 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 212 | 41 |
Tennessee | 215 - 219 | 217 | 217 | 217 | 215 | 319 |
Texas | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 1714 |
Utah | 210 - 216 | 212 | 211 | 209 | 211 | 195 |
Vermont | 211 - 217 | 215 | 215 | 212 | 213 | 33 |
Virginia | 219 - 223 | 222 | 222 | 219 | 221 | 394 |
Washington | 220 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 220 | 220 | 358 |
West Virginia | 208 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 207 | 66 |
Wisconsin | 212 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 213 | 213 | 289 |
Wyoming | 208 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 207 | 24 |
U.S. Territories | 208 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 45 |
Studying Abroad | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 223 | 112 |
Commended | 208 - 212 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 207 |
If you’d like to see even more historical data, you can find cutoffs going back to 2008 in Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for a state. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale.
What if I missed the PSAT because of illness or other legitimate reason?
You may still be able to enter the scholarship program by applying for Alternate Entry using an SAT score. Find information about last year’s process in Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 53,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi there,
My son is at a 208 and I wonder if he will be commended? Announcements not made at my son’s school in FL yet per guidance. From your article I see the cutoff is 208+ but not sure if that means all/some with 208 will receive this distinction.
Kelly,
Commended announcements always lag the Semifinalist announcements, because those letters are not sent until the press release date for NMSF. Yes, everyone at or above 208 will be Commended (unless they qualify as a Semifinalist). Congratulations to your son for being a Commended Student!
Hello,
My son qualified as a semi-finalist out of California with a SI score of 222. I haven’t found any information on how NMSC determines if his SAT score (1490) confirms his PSAT score for him to become a finalist. Is it based on the national selection index score?
Stephanie,
Congratulations to your son! If he logs into the OSA portal, there should be a worksheet on calculating his confirming Selection Index. There shouldn’t be any combination of Math and RW for a 1490 that isn’t sufficient. Students must meet a national selection index which is usually set at the Commended cutoff.
Hello Art,
My kid is a semifinalist, and the school informed him of this a week ago. To our knowledge, he can apply for finalist status. However, his school has not told him anything yet. Would you happen to know the procedure and timeline? Shall we reach out to the school? Thanks.
MG,
Congratulations to your student! He needs to get the letter sent to the school which includes his login information to the Finalist application portal (“OSA”). The application needs to be submitted BY THE SCHOOL by October 9. He completes his part and then the school completes its part. The deadline is soft, but not so soft that you shouldn’t start bothering the school for information.
Thank you for your response, Mr. Sawyer. What do you mean by “The deadline is soft”? So the school can submit the application after October 9?
MG,
I can’t speak for NMSC, but that has been the case in the past.
Hello Mr.Sawyer,
Is there a place where all the NMSC 2025 college sponsors are listed along with the amount of merit money offered by them.
Thanks in advance.
Paddy,
I don’t know of any listing that includes the scholarship value for each of the college sponsors. There have been a variety of attempts at this over the years — at least tracking the largest awards — but they often grow stale. One quirk when discussing this topic is that the largest scholarship awards received by Finalists are NOT actually NMSC college-sponsored awards. Official NMSC awards from colleges are $500 – $2,000 per year and are renewable for 4 years of study. But the truly large awards that many students hear about — full-rides or free tuition — are technically scholarships given by the colleges to Finalists (usually only to those naming the college as first choice). The same outcome, but one scholarship is administered by NMSC, and the other is administered by the college. For example, Texas Tech provides students almost $30K per year to cover tuition, fees, housing, meals, books, and transportation. College Vine lists some of these large awards, although I would recommend checking school websites directly for the latest instructions.
What is the original source of 208 score for Commended cutoff? my son got 209 but not received any certificate from the school. School says they dont know anything about it. How to get certificate?
Satish,
You can find confirmation on the nationalmerit.org website: https://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/guide_to_the_national_merit_scholarship_program.pdf?gid=2&pgid=61
NMSC mails letters to high school principals, and the packets would have been sent out around September 12th. Lists of Commended Students are not publicly released, so your best bet is checking with National Merit directly at (847) 866-5100.
Thank you so much! I will check with them.
Hello Mr Sawyer,
My son has a score of 1500, 750 in math, and 750 in English writing and reading. I read your article and found in Texas 219 , and my son is 225. But he has not entered the semi final list. How can I contact the National Merit Scolarship Corporation?
Thanks in advance!
Claire
Claire,
Give NMSC a call immediately at (847) 866-5100. Yes, there is no state where a 225 would not qualify. Did your son’s score report reflect eligibility (essentially, was he listed as a junior)? Have you checked with your son’s school? Good luck getting things straightened out!
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
My son received a 1500 on his PSAT (740 R/W & 760 Math). We are located in New Jersey. Is my son guaranteed to be qualified for semifinalist, or is there any chance the cutoff will jump up 2 to 225? Also, if his score is eligible, what is the next step in the process? I appreciate the help!
Thank you,
John
John,
Congratulations to your son! There is no chance that New Jersey’s cutoff will jump to 225. Unfortunately, the next step in the process is just waiting…. Your son’s school will be notified at the end of August 2025, and your son will be notified of Semifinalist status in September. At that point, he will fill out an online application to become a Finalist. Oh, he will need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score, but that just means he needs to score about a 1400. And he needs to keep his grades up, but I’m assuming that that was already his intention.
my daughter got same score, the index is 224. If the cutoff line is 224, does that mean it includes 224?
Lesley,
Yes, a 224 cutoff means everyone at or above that score qualifies. So, congratulations to your daughter, as we won’t see a 225!
How can you so confidently say that there won’t be 225? My son got a 224 index as well, and we live in Jersey, but does’t it change each year?
Jack,
Scores do change each year. But in the almost 20 years that I have tracked NM scores and across 50 states, we have never seen a legitimate 224 cutoff (Maryland in class of 2022 was a COVID artifact). I also know that scores at the upper ranges tend to be quite stable. Finally, I know that the air gets very thin once you start talking about scores in the 225-228 range. There simply aren’t enough of those scores to fill the slots in a state. I tend to be cautious about flat out statements, but I feel pretty confident saying that a 224 will qualify in New Jersey.
Thanks for this very informative website! My son just got his PSAT score and we didn’t really know anything about this stuff. He scored 720 on RW and 750 on math in Texas. 72+72+75 =219 which has been the cutoff for semifinalist for the last several years. Really hoping it stays there! We were hoping he would make commended but it looks he may make it farther than that.
Drew,
Glad to hear that you and your son had a pleasant surprise with his 219. Yes, he is very much in the mix!
I know it is super early but what are your thoughts on a 214 for Mississippi class of 2026? Thanks so much for all your help!
Brian,
As you say, it is super early, so I don’t yet know how things are shaping up nationally. I will say that your daughter’s score would have qualified in 8 of the last 9 years!
Thank you for your response. We know we are on the upper end of your predicted range for next year but just nervous we could see a 3 point jump from 212(2025) to 215 (2026). Here’s hoping for a two point or less jump in MS for this year.
Hey! Gutted to see my score today- I got a 220 in California. I see that the cutoff last year was 221, so barring a miracle I’m out of the mix, right? Just wanted to get your input.
AC,
Don’t be too hard on yourself. Great score! I don’t think it rises to miracle level; you would just need some things to break the right way. CA did see a 220 just a couple of years ago.
Hi Art,
My daughter got her PSAT score of 1390 with an index of 212. We’re located in Oklahoma and was wondering about her chances for NMSF and if Oklahoma’s cutoff is likely to decrease or increase!
Layla,
Unfortunately, College Board doesn’t release data state-by-state until next October (at which point you’ll already know one way or another). The good news is that it has been a few years (class of 2020) since Oklahoma was above 212. Your daughter’s score is in what I would call the waiting zone. It’s not high enough where she is guaranteed to qualify, but it is certainly not so low as to take her out of the running. Realistically, she is going to be waiting until Semifinalist names are released next September. Fingers crossed!
First, thanks for this amazing resource! Second, I have a question. Virginia jumped 3 points last year (219 to 222), does that make it less likely to go up this year? My son was pleased to get a SSI of 223 on the PSAT score he got yesterday, which would make this year’s cut off, and would make the cut off that you predict for next year. But he is nervous that next year’s cut off will jump again, and if it goes up by more than 1, he’ll just miss the cut off. On the one hand I would think that there isn’t a correlation between change the prior year and change the next, but on the other hand, if Virginia jumped by 2 or 3 points this year, that would be 5-6 points over two years, which seems like a lot!
Corey,
Upward movements become less and less common as the cutoffs increase. There has never been a true 224 cutoff (Maryland had a 224 during the COVID cancellations, but that was because virtually all students had to apply via SAT scores). The 221 least year was more of a return to form than it was a jump. Virginia has traditionally been a top 5 state. No, there really isn’t a correlation between year-to-year jumps. Much of it depends on how well the College Board scales a particular test and how many students enter the competition. I’ll have a better sense of the national numbers in the next 2-4 weeks, but unless something unprecedented happens, Virginia will not go to 224.
My kid, a junior in TX, just scored a 219 which would qualify this year and you show 219 as predicted for next year as well. Looking through Texas’ history it’s been as high as 221 just a few years ago but has leveled off at 219 for the last 3 years. What factors go into your prediction and what would cause it to go up. Obviously we’re hoping for your prediction to be correct.
Sandy,
I take account of the historical numbers and how scores are looking nationally. There is not available data on the individual states, so the estimates are always going to be imprecise. We tend to see high years (210+ on Commended) and low years (under 210). Recently, Texas’s cutoff has hit 221 during those high years. Based on the data I just published, we seem to be in something of a high year (or, at least, a not low year). I don’t want to rule out a 219, but now I think a 220 is just a bit more likely.
Hi,
I scored a 1490, 730RW and 760M leaving me with a 222 in NJ. The cutoff the last couple years, I see, has been 223. Is there any chance it could go down? From everything I’ve seen so far it seems like it is mostly likely going to stay the same meaning I will miss the cutoff by one point. My report listed me in the 99th percentile, but I am aware this is not a guarantee that you will make it because of how these number are rounded. How slim of a chance is there that the cutoff would drop to my 222, and what sort of data could I look out for to give me a better indication before next year when semifinalists are announced?
Quinn,
I just published some data showing that this is more likely to be a strong year rather than a weak one. Unfortunately, that makes it more likely that NJ sticks at 223. You are correct that percentiles are unhelpful, particularly since they refer to prior years.
Hi Art, my class of 2026 son has an index score of 212 and we’re in South Carolina. He had perfect math score but was devastated by his reading/writing score. This past cutoff SC saw a 5 point jump from 209 to 214, what are your predictions for SC – do you think it’s reasonable to hope for a 2 point drop from 214 to 212?
MHB,
South Carolina has certainly been full of surprises. I did not see its 209 coming, and a 5-point jump is always shocking. So I would not rule out a 212. It would be a bit of a surprise to see a 2-point drop in a strong year, but South Carolina has been providing us with surprises.
Hello, and thank you for an excellent resource. Can you explain how the “Most Likely” column for 2026 is estimated? Thank you..
Matt,
I look at the historical record in a state and in similar states and combine it with the current year score trend. I’ve just updated the post to reflect that we now have a good deal of national score data, and it looks like we’ll see a lot of cutoffs move up from last year’s figures.
I noticed you changed your prediction on Texas from 219 to 220. I scored a 220 (1480) and am trying to remain hopeful that it won’t go up to 221. Do you see this as a large possibility at all?
Lauren,
It looks like there were a lot of strong scores this year, and that is typically associated with high state cutoffs. I wish I could say that we could rule out a 221 in Texas, but we saw it occur in the 3 years when the Commended cutoff was 211 and above. I’d estimate that there is a 1-in-3 chance of it happening again.