Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello,
My 10th grade daughter got a 210 index score (700 on each section). How much improvement would you generally expect to see by next year?
Johnny,
Improvement varies greatly depending on how much work your daughter does. The average gain for a Selection Index from sophomore year to junior year is about 8 points.
Hello, Sawyer,
My daughter received a 223 (English 740, Math 750 total 1490). We live in California. and she got an SAT 1540 in March and that score was in 10th grade. Does she need a New SAT score in 11th grade? Do you believe her score is sufficient to advance him to the 2026 semifinals? Your ideas. Thank you!
Flavia,
Congratulations to your daughter! Yes, I’m confident that 223 will qualify her as a Semifinalist. The SAT score is needed at the Finalist stage. The cutoff there is set nationally, usually at the Commended level. In other words, the highest it would go is an SAT Selection Index of 212. Your daughter’s score is well above that. And, yes, an SAT can be taken as early as fall of sophomore year. So she is all set!
Hi,
Thank you for such an informative article. My son saw his PSAT score today and his selection index is 218. We live in Tennessee. I saw the estimates for our state, but I was wondering what you think my son’s chances are of achieving Semi-Finalist status for the class of 2026?
Also, do you know when the actual cutoff scores for each state will be released?
Thanks for your time.
Cheryl,
While a 218 would have qualified in the last 5 classes, this year is looking strong. Even in 2017-2020 period, though, Tennessee’s cutoff only hit 219 twice. I’d put your sons chances at about 70/30.
Hello
My daughter received a 224 yesterday in NJ (English 740 Math 760). Will she be qualified as a Semifinalist? Any probability of NJ cutoff jumping to 225, given the upward trend? Thank you so much.
YH,
Your daughter will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations! Even in an up year, we won’t see a 225 cutoff. Really the only question is whether or not New Jersey will finally hit 224.
Hi! I got a 1380 (740 RW, 640 M) with an index of 212, is commended guaranteed? My state is very competitive, so I know I will not be a semifinalist. I just want to know if I have a high (practically guaranteed) shot at being a national commended scholar!
Brielle,
I feel more comfortable with the “practically guaranteed.” We haven’t seen a 213 cutoff before, and I don’t think we’ll see it this year. I have just caution not to call it guaranteed guaranteed, especially before we see the last wave of scores.
Hi,
What are the chances of a student who got PSAT1490 (index 222) in California being qualified as a 2026 semifinalist? Thank you!
NL,
You’ve got two important factors working in your favor (1) California’s cutoff has only hit 223 once (in a year when there were 71K high scorers nationally) and (2) California’s PSAT-taking figures have weakened since then. I’d say your chances are in the 90-95% range.
My daughter has a score of 222 in California. I see that the upper range of prediction to be 223? How likely is she to be a semifinalist?
Ray,
I’ll quote myself from another reply on this same situation:
“You’ve got two important factors working in your favor (1) California’s cutoff has only hit 223 once (in a year when there were 71K high scorers nationally) and (2) California’s PSAT-taking figures have weakened since then. I’d say your chances are in the 90-95% range.”
Hi
Would you consider 218 likely to make the cutoff in AZ for class of 2026
Thanks in advance for your response
AJ
Anand,
The situation in Arizona is similar to what we’ve seen in many states — a 218 would have qualified in the last 5 class years. That’s the good news! The strong numbers so far, though, make me concerned that this class will be more similar to the 2017 – 2020 period, when Arizona’s cutoff went as high as 220. Based on the information that I have today, I’d say it’s about 50/50.
Art,
I just wanted to jump in on the Arizona question. You have the most likely at 217…so curious as to why you now think it likely that this year will be similar to a 220 year for AZ? Did something change since you felt 217 was most likely?
All of your information is greatly appreciated!!
Davis
Davis,
Sorry that I was unclear. I was really just thinking out loud in response to Anand’s 218. I still have Arizona’s most likely at 217. Although, TBH, I’d be tempted to shift that to a 218 depending on how the final wave of scores shake out. By “make me concerned that…” I really meant that it’s a consideration when estimating the most likely and the estimated range. Arizona was at 219 and 220 during that run. I don’t want, in other words, a “most likely” to be misinterpreted as “it’s in the bag.”
My daughter has a score of 228 in NY. How do she to be a finalist?
Wayne,
Congratulations to your daughter! With a 228, she will be named as a Semifinalist in September. She will get access to an online application to become a Finalist. She will need what is referred to as a “confirming” SAT or ACT score. That score is a nationwide level that will be an SAT Selection Index of 210-212 in all likelihood. In other words, it should be easy for her. The other requirements are excellent grades (NM gives no cutoffs there), a school recommendation, and an essay. Most Semifinalists do become Finalists (named in January 2026).
Florida. What chance would you give Florida of bumping to a 220 or higher for current juniors? Your historical data (thank you!!) shows Florida has never gone over 219 nor had more than a 2-point leap in a year. Could the strong national upward trends drive FL up, or does the fact it’s a large state keep it in check?
Jane,
You’ve basically taken away anything that I could add by accurately summarizing the situation! I think a 220 is very unlikely in Florida, but I don’t think it can be ruled out entirely. 5% chance?
Hi Art, Thank you for taking the time to assuage many nerves nationwide. My daughter has a 218 in Florida (710V, 760M). Might this be Commended, if not Semi-Finalist?
CMM,
Yes, if your daughter misses out on Semifinalist, her score will be well above the Commended cutoff.
Art,
Appreciate all you do, and your patience answering what seem like very similar questions. My daughter is in Georgia and received. 219. I’ve been following your article above and see with the newest scores, the projected threshold moved from 218->219. I know your estimated range goes up to 221 for the state. My questions are:
1) How likely is it that we’ll see a cutoff of 220 or higher?
2) If she were to make the cutoff, is she then compared to other kids at her school when being considered for finalist status? Or is it strictly at the state level?
Thanks!!
Matt,
I think I answered (1) of this just a moment ago (apologies if that wasn’t you), but I neglected to answer (2). No, she is not competing versus other students at her school — directly, at least. The school recommendation is part of the Finalist process. Keep in mind that most Semifinalists qualify as Finalists. Good grades, confirming SAT score, nose clean, and an essay.
1470, 760 in math and unfortunately, lower in RW leading to an index of 218 in New York. What are the chances of commendation? I understand being a semifinalist is impossible.
NS,
Commended Student is a lock. It’s extremely unlikely that it will move above 212, and there is no chance that it would move above 213. I should have a better estimate after the final set of scores. My guess is that we are going to see a 210 or 211.
Hi,
My daughter got full score 1520 (index 228) in Idaho. But does that ensure her being a Semifinalist? Or still, the score just makes her “qualified/eligible” to potentially be a Semifinalist, and whether or not she actually make it next Sep is still up in the air?
Bright
bright,
Congratulations to your daughter! Yes, she will be a Semifinalist. The next stage happens in September after Semifinalists are officially announced. She will submit an application to become a Finalist. At that stage, it is not longer about scores, it is about grades, school recommendation, and essay. Oh, she will also need a “confirming” SAT score, but that won’t require much more than a 1410-1430, so I’m sure that she won’t have any problem there. And that is considered a sort of pass/fail. It doesn’t matter to what extent she exceeds the minimum.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
I scored a 217 Selection Index, which is listed as “most likely” for Tennessee. However, my overall score (760 RW + 650 M = 1410 Total) places me in the 96th percentile for TN.
I understand my high SI is due to my strong RW score being weighted more heavily, but I’m concerned that state cutoffs might be higher this year, as my percentile is lower than the typical top 1% for NMSF qualification.
Thank you for any possible clarification!
Elton,
When it comes to National Merit, I really hate percentiles. First, they tell us absolutely nothing about this years’ cutoffs, because they are based on the 3 prior classes. That’s right, they have nothing to do with the class of 2026 performance! And, as you pointed out, they don’t factor in the SI, which is vital. Also, every state’s participation level is different. If every student in every state took the PSAT, then we could approximately say that the top 1% of students qualify in each state. But not every student takes the PSAT and the composition of test takers is different in every state. All of which is to say, don’t put any stock in percentiles.
I wish I could tell you that there is no reason to be concerned — not because of percentiles but because of Tennessee’s history. In some “up” years, TN’s cutoff has gone to 218/219. So I still consider it something of a 50/50 proposition for a 217 to qualify this year.
A Maine score of 216 seems likely she will be a semifinalist for the class of 2026, but it doesn’t seem guaranteed because your estimated range goes up to 217? Maine was at 213 for class of 2024 and 214 for class of 2025. Thank you for this info! It’s very helpful and we saw a note on college board that she was eligible for national merit scholarship so we automatically thought she made it, and now we realize we won’t know until next fall.
AM,
The eligibility information is confusing. You’re right. That basically just confirms that your daughter is listed as a junior and is automatically entered into the NMSP.
States evolve, so I definitely take recency into account. That makes a 216 look fabulous. Relatively speaking, though, we haven’t seen this many high scorers since the classes of 2017-2020. And during that period, Maine got as high as 217 (2019). But the next year — even though there were more high scorers, it fell back to 215. In other words, small states can bounce around. Yes, there is still that chance that it could bounce to 217, but I like your daughter’s chances.
What do you think of a 221 in Texas? Thank you
Richie,
It’s almost a guarantee. Texas would need to set a new record to reach 222, and the national scores don’t seem high enough for the second largest state in the country to do that. It’s 99% territory.
Do you think it’s possible that California’s cutoff could drop to 220?
Vihan,
I like to stay positive, but I also believe in honesty. I think there is a small chance that California drops to 220. While it seems to be a strong years for scores overall, we have seen weakness in recent years on the appetite for testing at some CA schools. I don’t think I’d put it higher than a 10-15% chance. 221 or 222 are more likely.
Hello,
I’m a junior and got a score of 1490 (222 index) for the PSAT this year, in the state of Texas. Will I almost guaranteed become at least a National Merit Semi-Finalist or is there a chance it could jump up to where I would only become Commended?
Thanks!
Sam,
I can’t remember if your question was the one I answered a few minutes ago, but I can give you the same answer: you will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi! I just got back my score in Maryland – it’s a 1520 (760 math, 760 reading) and an index of 228. Is this a guaranteed scholarship?
Kat,
Congratulations! You are guaranteed Semifinalist status. Getting to Finalist and scholarship are a little different. All Semifinalists are considered equal in their state, so there is no advantage to your perfect score. You’ll need good grades and a school recommendation. You’ll also submit an essay. You need to get a high enough score on the SAT or ACT (basically a Selection Index of 212 or so). Most Semifinalists become Finalists. About half of Finalists receive scholarships, and about half of those depend on choosing, as first choice, a college that provides NM scholarships. Sorry if that answer was longer than you wanted!
Hello my child received an index score of 222 on the PSAT in Illinois. Is there any chance the cutoff could raise to 223? Thank you very much.
WS,
I just told a Texas student that a 223 was impossible in their state because it would represent a large state going up 3 points over its maximum at the high end of the range. The same is mostly true of Illinois except a 223 is 2 points above its all-time high. So I might dial it back from guaranteed to almost guaranteed. 99.8% to put a fake number on it. It would require a whole lot of unlikely events to align.
Hello,
Thanks for this amazing resource! I just a question regarding my PSAT score. I got a 1490 on this year’s PSAT with a index of 222. Are you confident that with this score in the state of Texas that I will become at least a semi-finalist? In other words is there any chance that Texas jumps up to a cutoff of 223 for this year?
Thanks!
No chance. The second largest state moving 3 points above its previous high? That doesn’t happen. Congratulations!
My son got 208/1420 in PSAT and in state of texas 2024 the college board states he met criteria for consideration into national merit. Does it mean he will be in commended category ?
Thank you.
Brian,
Unfortunately, 208 may not be enough for Commended this year. We are seeing a lot of strong scores nationally.
Hello
My daughter received a 223 in MA. Do you think the score is enough for her being a semifinalist for 2026?
Thanks for your time
Youngran,
I think there is a very high chance it will be sufficient. But if I look at the states that have a small chance of hitting 224 in a strong year, #1 is New Jersey and #2 is Massachusetts. I’d put your daughter’s odds at 95%+.
Hi, my daughter scored a 1460 in Florida with an index score of 220. How likely is she to be a semifinalist? Thank you!
Rachel,
She will be a Semifinalist. I don’t see any chance that Florida will move higher than 220. Congratulations!
Hello,
Any chance that a 209 gets a National Merit Commendation? I see that you predicted 210, but is there also a high chance that the commended cut off is 209 or lower?
Jake,
I think there is a chance. Whether it is a good chance or an outside chance depends on home many 1400-1520 scores we see in the final batch this week.
Ok, thank you so much for the reply.