Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi,
I wanted to see what my chances are of becoming a semifinalist in the state of Oklahoma with a score of 212. The likely score was exactly 212 and last year it was 211.
Raj,
I’d say maybe 60/40 in your favor. Oklahoma has seen some large changes in the past, so we can’t ignore the possibility that it moves above 212.
Hi.
I’m a member of the class of 2026 in New York State.
I scored 218 in the fall, so I likely will not be a semifinalist.
I was wondering what it means if I am neither a semifinalist nor am I commended. Do I have anything to show for it?
-Oliver
Oliver,
Although 218 will likely fall short of the Semifinalist cutoff in NY, it will be well above the Commended level of 210. You will receive official confirmation in mid-September.
Hello, I scored a 224 index in New Jersey, but I saw that this year 4% of students scored between a 1415 and 1520 which is a big increase compared from last year so do you think there’s any chance that New Jersey’s index is going to move up to 225?
Jack,
Congratulations! Your 224 is going to be enough to qualify as a Semifinalist. Yes, it seems like we are going to have higher cutoffs overall. But we’ve had class years with even more high scores, and New Jersey has never topped 223. It’s not a straight line. The air becomes very thin above 223. Will we ever see a 224 cutoff (I throw out Maryland’s COVID-lockdown number)? Maybe. Will we ever see a 225 cutoff? No.
Hi,
Due to the fact that your predicted cutoff for commended score was correct, what do you think of the chances of California’s semifinal cutoff dropping from 222 to 221?Thanks for all your help!
Sophia,
We are in pretty much the same position, since the 210 was not a surprise. The reason I still have my estimate at 222 is how CA has performed in “up” years. As far as PSAT testing, though, California is a different environment than it was 6-7 years ago. Test volumes have declined, so I would not be surprised to see that take the pressure off of an increase. In other words, I think it is going to be 221 or 222, but there is not much to go either way. Just a few more weeks of waiting!
Hello!
Thank you so much for this resource–it’s been very helpful. I was wondering how ‘safe’ an index score of 223 is for Connecticut?
Thanks!
EB,
Congratulations, you’re going to be a Semifinalist. Connecticut has had an extremely stable cutoff. I don’t think it will even go to 222. There is absolutely 0 chance of it going higher.
Hi Art,
My daughter scored a 214 in Nevada. What do you think the chances are of the cutoff remaining at 214 for the Class of 2026 in NV? We’re a small state, so I think there’s more chance of fluctuation.
Tori,
In a completely average year, we see cutoffs stay the same or go lower in two-thirds of states. This year does not appear to be average. I suspect that two-thirds of states will actually see higher cutoffs than last year’s. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for your daughter. This is a tough year!
Hi , My score is 223 and from MA state. What is the chance that I will be a semifinalists?
Thanks,
Ved
Vedant,
I like your odds at 223. 90%? Massachusetts is one of only 2 or 3 states where I feel like a 224 cutoff is even possible.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
Do you think a 218 will qualify for national merit in Tennessee? What are my chances? I see that the predicted score is 218 but it always seems there’s more national merit qualifiers in my school this year but I don’t know if this applies to the whole state of TN.
Thanks,
Stephen
Stephen,
I know that it’s the result for only one state, but Florida’s cutoff moving to 219 has me concerned that we are going to see even more upward movement than expected. At this point, I’d put the odds at 50/50 for a 218 qualifying in TN.
Florida moving to 219 hit me like a ton of bricks. This process is sooooo long and I was really counting on that 218. 🙁 congrats to all those who made the cutoff!! And thank you Art for all your efforts!
I’m sorry that such a great score didn’t make Semifinalist in Florida, Liz. Thank you for the kind words for me and other readers!
Hello!
Thank you for providing this valuable information. It helped tremendously with both my sons’ college searches in terms of targeting scholarships. My oldest was not notified he was NMSF by the high school until mid-September. My youngest has a 219 and we are in Florida. When do you expect cutoffs to leak?
Lisa,
Congratulations to your youngest! Florida leaked, and the cutoff is exactly 219.
You are the man Art!
I have 224 will I be Semifinalist in PA and if yes then to become National Merit finalist is 1500 on SAT or ACT 34 is enough and which one (SAT or ACT) I should report to become finalist.
Tanisha,
Congratulations, a 224 will definitely be high enough in PA! A confirming score needs to be as high as the Commended Selection Index, which was 210 this year. You can create a Selection Index from your SAT score just as you would for the PSAT. A 1500 is going to be more than sufficient. Converting an ACT score is a bit more complicated, and you can find directions on our FAQ. The confirming score is pass/fail. There is no advantage to having a very high SAT or ACT score. Send your SAT score and be done with it!
Anyone got updates from schools on their semifinalists ? My daughter is in NJ with NMS index of 224.
Jen B,
No updates from New Jersey yet, but your daughter will be a Semifinalist with a 224. I remain confident in that.
Thank you Art. Keeping fingers crossed
Art: I hear through the grapevine that you were in possession of cut-off scores by state soon after Labor Day for the Class of 2025. Are you by any chance in possession of that information for the Class of 2026? Anxious in NY…
JM,
I don’t want to disappoint the grapevine! I will share the NY cutoff as soon as I know it.
Hi,
Since the Florida score has gone up, do you predict an upward trend for California too? My kid has a score of 222. Would that be enough to be a semifinalist?
Thanks,
Ray
Ray,
That’s the question on a lot of minds! Florida doesn’t necessarily apply to California. Cutoffs get “stickier” at the upper reaches, because there are simply fewer options for 223-228 scores. There is also the fact that California has only hit 223 once before. I’m still rooting for a 221 or 222.
Art!!! Florida cut score makes me nervous for Texas! Please update as soon as you know! Anxiously waiting for Texas with a score of a 220 over here!
Michele,
I’ll definitely be passing along anything that I hear. Texas is going to be an interesting case. Good luck!
Now I’m kinda worried about CA. Hoping a 222 still holds! Any rumblings? Daughter hasn’t heard anything from school, but she is out sick.
Beth,
No rumblings, yet. California’s cutoff has only reached 223 once before, so I remain optimistic.
From someone in NY with a 221, what are my chances?? Is it possible NY will move up to 222?
Ellie,
I’m going to quote from a reply I gave a little earlier to a student in the same situation:
“Your dose of optimism for the day: New York’s cutoff has never hit 222. Florida’s has been at 219 three times in the previous eight years.”
I still like your odds, Ellie!
Hi Art,
Thank you for your detailed analysis on all of the states. Given that Florida came in higher than expected, do you think that Washington State may go up to 223 this year? My son has a 222, which is the cutoff from last year.
Kim,
While a 2-point jump in a large state is always a little concerning, I should point out that Florida did not set a new state record. Its cutoff has been at 219 three times in the last eight years (four out of nine, now). Washington has never seen a cutoff above 222. I certainly can’t rule out a 223, but I’d still put the odds in your son’s favor.
Hi Art,
How is a 221 looking for NY? The rise in Florida cutoffs has us very concerned… Thank you for all your work.
Janet,
No news on New York, and I want to be cautious about overgeneralizing from Florida.
Your dose of optimism for the day: New York’s cutoff has never hit 222. Florida’s has been at 219 three times in the previous eight years.
I have a 218 index score in Florida. Is it 100% confirmed by the national merit organization that the cutoff is 219? Thanks!
Lucien,
I’m sorry to say that the information on the 219 cutoff is accurate. No, it’s not 100% confirmed *by* National Merit, because I have no affiliation with National Merit and can’t make that sort of claim. Again, 219 is the correct cutoff.
Hello Art, Seeing that Florida went up by 2 points, are you expecting the same jump for other states? I’m a nervous 222 in California. Thank you!
Ana,
I just replied to another California student with the same concern, so I am going to quote myself. Good luck!
“Let me be the voice of optimism. California’s cutoff has only hit 223 once (class of 2019). Florida’s has been at 219 three times. More important, the number of PSAT takers in California has almost halved since its peak. I still think there is a good chance that CA will be at 222 or even 221.”
Art, what is the probability of not becoming a Finalist in Florida (cut off is 219, and my son’s score is 220). He has a confirming SAT, all As, excellent student on top of his class, great resume etc.. Is the process of choosing finalists from the pool of semifinalists random?
Natalia,
NMSC stays mum about its secret sauce, but everything points to your son being named a Finalist. I assume that the school will provide him a recommendation. No, the process is not random. There is always an element that takes a student out of Finalist consideration.
What are your opinions on 216 qualifying chances in Louisiana?
I’d put it at 80%+. A 217 would require a 3-point jump. Those happen, but they are uncommon. Louisiana has only reached 217 once before. The flip side of that is that Louisiana has reached 217 in the past.
Hi Art!
As more cutoff scores are coming in for different states, I am seeing several that are higher than your predicted scores. Will this likely continue to be a trend that most states follow, or will some ultimately fall below your prediction to account for those states that have surpassed it? Asking because I have a 219 in Texas and am a bit concerned with the general upward trend I am seeing.
Jonny,
Do you have examples for me? There is a difference between a confirmed cutoff and students receiving NMSF notification. Regarding the latter, we are bound to see many students above the eventual cutoff.
I’m going to wait for more data before calling it a trend, but we’ve known since November that many states would move higher (we just never know which ones and how high!). Good luck!
would a 222 be enough for california? i feel like it is really up in the air now that FL has moved two points, but hoping for the best!
David,
Let me be the voice of optimism. California’s cutoff has only hit 223 once (class of 2019). Florida’s has been at 219 three times. More important, the number of PSAT takers in California has almost halved since its peak. I still think there is a good chance that CA will be at 222 or even 221.
When do you think California will be made available? How many PSAT juniors test takers are in California? Does 1420 SAT good enough for a confirming score and make it to finalist?
Mel,
The NMSC press release date is September 10. In recent years, NMSC has also published the cutoffs on that date, but there is no guarantee that it will.
I don’t sign any press embargo agreements, so I pass along the information that I receive. I hope to get confirmation of the California cutoff this week.
A 1420 will be close depending on the split. The Selection Index of the SAT score generally needs to be at least as high as the Commended Score, which is 210 this year. A 710 ERW / 710 M would be high enough (213). A 670 ERW / 750 M would not be (209).
And I forgot to answer a part of your question. In 2023, 142,000 California juniors took the PSAT/NMSQT. We don’t have figures yet for 2024, but I expect it to be a bit lower.