Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi –
Any further news about AZ? Do you have reason to believe the 218 reported on Reddit is accurate?
The only reason is every state is jumping 2-3 points
As always – thanks for your engagement and inputs on this topic. GREATLY appreciated!!
Aj,
I don’t have any additional information beyond the Reddit post, sorry. Good luck!
Hi Art
Just want to confirm that in AZ we got the letter for 218!!
It appears that this is the cutoff for AZ this year.
Thanks again!!!
Ananth
Aj,
Congratulations! I think there is still the possibility that the cutoff is below 218. We haven’t yet heard from a 217 student.
Do the bolded numbers indicate record breaking for that state?
I’ve been trying to highlight states where we have narrowed down the cutoff (e.g. FL = 219). My bolding skills have not always been perfect!
Is the Connecticut prediction based on multiple report? And any updates? Really nervous here – my child got 223
I’m going from memory, but I think we just have the one report of a student qualifying at 224. That doesn’t tell us anything about where the cutoff might end up at beyond <=224.
Hello Art — any word on Minnesota? It seems like most of these states are coming in 1 or 2 points higher than your “likely” predictions — except MD and DC? My student got a 220 — so may be right on the bubble, with your likely number of a 218? Any thoughts? Thank you!
MM,
Minnesota’s record high is 220. We know that the overall scaling has changed at the high end — many more students scoring 224, 225, 226 than ever before — but the impact may not be as severe lower down the scale (you can see the answer I just posted to the Ohio parent). BUT, I do think we will see some records even outside the 222+ bunch. Let’s hope it’s not in Minnesota!
Hello Art! Is the 223 in CA officially confirmed? My son got 223 🙁
Flavia,
Not yet. We know that a student at 224 qualified and that one at 222 did not. We are still waiting to hear whether or not 223 qualifies. Please report back when you hear, because you son’s status will tell us the cutoff. Thank you!
With an uncertain year, how strong of a chance does my daughter have with 218 in Wisconsin?
E,
I don’t feel equipped to quantify it at this point, but I still think your daughter is in a pretty good position. I think we are likely to see more of the “record highs” at the high end of the scale. We’re going to see increases throughout the range, but I’m hoping that things aren’t too crazy in the 210-215 range. Wisconsin’s cutoff would need to jump 5 points and 2 points above its record high. Impossible? No.
Hi,
Is the 219 in Tennessee confirmed or still awaiting confirmation? My son got a 218. So close😔.
Thanks,
Cheryl
Cheryl,
Right now, it’s only as accurate as the student reports we have received. We did hear that a 218 did not qualify, but I don’t want to imply that it is 100% true. Good luck to your son!
An earlier comment:
SD says:
September 5, 2025 at 3:14 pm
Not 100% sure about this but I am for the most part sure that I didn’t qualify with a 223 in CA
So does this give any reason to doubt the CA=223 report?
Thank you for catching my error, George. I should not have called California. My apologies to students on the bubble.
So, it has been confirmed that the cutoff for CA is 224, hasn’t it?
Yes.
I know you already know but here is the second data point of 224 qualifying in CT.
Congratulations!
Art, Would love to get your prelim thoughts on what’s going on here–hard questions weren’t hard enough to separate students at the higher end of the range, something with the test format itself, other explanations? Because this is odd. For many, the NMSF label is just that. But for others, lots of $$$ depends on this….
Mike,
Yes, the score distribution curve has clearly changed this year. In the past, we always saw things taper off quickly at 222/223, which is why there were never enough 224-228 students to fill the NMSF allotments. Something getting in the water in so many different states and raising scores is unlikely, so the chief suspect is the test scaling. More students than ever appear to be ending up with 750s and 760s. Could it be Desmos (doesn’t help much on ERW)? Could it be better familiarity with the digital test? Better Preparation? Maybe, but I don’t feel like those are adequate explanations for the step change that we are seeing. Unfortunately, the Item Response Theory scaling now used is opaque. Students don’t know how many questions they got wrong. The pool of problems varies. And not every question has the same impact on a score. College Board will say what College Board always says, “Looks good to us.” Or even more likely, “No comment.” Once the cutoffs become clear, I’ll be doing a more extensive write-up, since there are wider implications regarding SAT scores, too. Are the statistics College Board is getting from the unscored field test items sufficient to produce accurate item information for use on future tests? Was the pool of problems used for the PSAT particularly skewed in some way?
We can hope that the higher scores were at least “fair.” The top 300 scorers in Maryland will be named NMSFs just as the top 300 (approximately) scorers were last year. It just so happens that the latter group is apparently bunched at 226-228. Any kind of cut score is always arbitrary. If the same students took a second PSAT a day later, at least some of those 300 NMSFs would change. That has always been true. A properly constructed and equated test, though, should produce consistent distributions for the same population. The October 2024 PSAT did not do that when compared to an almost 20-year history of results.
Your response with respect to the SAT here is especially interesting. My kiddo (Class of 2026, so currently as senior) took the SAT back in June 2024. Most of his cohort took it later in 2024 or in 2025. When the highly selective colleges assess SAT scores, do you have any insight into whether they factor in when the test was administered? Or does the percentile score on the SAT essentially accomplish this?
Colleges do not look at when tests were taken, especially since so many superscore. The problem with percentiles is that they are a lagging (very lagging) indicator. They represent the performance of the 3 prior class years and are updated only once per year. A distinct possibility is that the move to the higher cutoffs is not permanent and had something to do with the pool of problems used for that specific test. If true, then it puts into question College Board’s ability to scale each SAT date accurately. It doesn’t necessarily mean that scores will always be going up, but it might mean that some tests produce more high scores. The other possibility is that, indeed, scores are trending upward because of the changes made on the digital exams.
I’m concerned with students having a sense of how strong their SAT performance was. A Maryland PSAT student had every reason to believe that a 224 was a blockbuster score. Are the same mixed messages being sent by the SAT.
I’m a little less worried in the case of a highly selective college, because colleges don’t need percentile charts to know what they are seeing. Harvard has tens of thousands of data points, and those are the data points that matter. It’s still not great. You want to be able to project the sorts of students you will be seeing throughout the application process. And it certainly has an impact on colleges that use cutoff scores for things like admission to honor colleges or scholarships.
Any way you cut it, not having a handle on scaling or score distribution is bad.
My son qualified in KS at 218. Not sure if that was the cutoff, but it’s lower than 220 as currently noted in your post.
Congratulations to your son! And it’s good to know that KS will stay under its historical high.
We’re dying over here in South Carolina — any news? I don’t see it in your list of crowdsourced numbers. My student has a 218 and it’s predicted at 215… We’re nervous seeing higher-than-usual numbers elsewhere…
No news. SC would need to beat its previous high by 2 points to get to 219, so I’d still be hopeful at 218. And in this year, I’d still be nervous. Good luck!
Have you heard anything from Iowa yet? My son has a 215 and is hoping it will be enough. I thought there was a comment about a school counselor confirming 214 on Friday night but the comment is no longer visible.
Maria,
There was a comment to that effect. I didn’t feel that it was definitive enough to say that the cutoff was 214. No updates.
A friend of mine qualified with a 217 in South Carolina. I had a 214 and didn’t receive an email but had the delayed entry and submitted an SAT score months after the NMSQT.
Thanks, John, that’s going to make at least some of the SC viewers happy. Good luck!
Do you think there is any possibility a 214 would qualify in SC?
We may see a few states maintain their current levels, so I would say that there is a possibility.
Any words for PA? I have 224 in PA
Tanisha,
Crickets from PA. 224 is still looking VERY strong in Pennsylvania.
Someone on Reddit posted with a 224 that they did get NMSF.
Thank you, Penelope!
Hi Art,
For IL, my friends and I qualified for national merit semi-finalists with 222, so that should be the cutoff at most.
Congratulations, Grace!
Nervous with a 219 in Michigan. No leak from Michigan at all?
We’ve had reports of qualifiers at 220 and 221. Still a chance at 219. Good luck!
On Reddit, a 218 from New Hampshire did not qualify and someone knew someone with a 220 in Pennsylvania who did not qualify. Someone said that “214 confirmed as cutoff” for Alabama but with no indication of how they know so I’m not totally sure
Thanks, George! I’ve incorporated those reports.
Considering all the cutoffs from states close to Arkansas’ range, do you think that Arkansas would be a record breaker this year? Or should my kid feel okay with his 216?
TJR,
I like your student’s odds, I just don’t think that they can feel like it is a done deal. So far we don’t seem to be seeing crazy numbers in the mid-210s, and Arkansas would need to go 2 points over its record. Fingers crossed!
Hello, First of all, thank you for your multiple updates and keeping this page updated with the latest. This is our primary source for cutoffs scores as we are still waiting information from school. Any word on GA cutoff? When you say its <=223, is the cutoff likely to be 223 OR less than 223? Have you have received from any information from students/ parents in GA with actual scores and if they made it or not? DS is at 222 and still waiting on any information from his school. Thanks!
GN,
When I put something like <=223, it's because we have received a report of a student qualifying at 223. All that we know at that point is that the cutoff can't be higher than 223. You shouldn't assume that the 223 is even near GA's actual cutoff. It's just all that we know via student reports. Good luck and let us know!
Thank you for your prompt response. Keeping fingers crossed!
Any updates on Alabama? Do you have a score range? Thanks for all your updates!
There was the report — I think on Reddit — of a student qualifying at 215. Nothing else.
Thanks for all the info. How do students using alternate entry affect state cut offs, if at all? Are cut offs first determined without the scores from alternate entry students? Thanks for any insights!
Violeta,
Excellent question. In the pre-COVID days, NMSC supposedly did not take AE scores into account when calculating cutoffs. The statewide cancellations in Oct 2020 made that problematic, so my understanding is that SAT scores were used in calculating cutoffs that year. I don’t know with certainty how it has been handled since then, but NMSC’s leaning has been toward using the PSAT/NMSQT for cutoffs (it IS the NMSQT after all). Given the crazy scores this year, I do wonder. But it is extremely unlikely that NMSC changed policy for the Oct 2024 PSAT versus the Oct 2023 PSAT.
Hey Art!
Is Virginia for sure confirmed at 224? My daughter has a 223…
There was a report of a student not qualifying at 223, but every report has to be taken with some degree of salt.
Someone on Reddit says that they got NMSF at 222 in Illinois and their friend did not.
https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/1nc0l8a/illinois_cutoff_222/
Not that it’s helpful with these other reports, but 224 did qualify in IL 😉
Thank you. Congratulations, J!
Hi Art,
Given the upwards trends, do you believe a 222 in NY is more likely than 221?
The CA, TX, PA (minimum) results are a bit discouraging. We’re not seeing things stick to +1.
I see… if you had to put it in percentages, what do you believe is the % of 221 being the cutoff? I was thinking NY being a larger state could help but with California and Texas I guess that goes out the window.
Maybe 2 to 1 in favor of 222. Looks like Illinois is also confirmed at 222.