After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My son’s school announced today. RI is 219 with his friend confirmed at 218 not getting it. School has 10+ NMSFs, a new record, though not surprising as top public school in the state.
Great to get confirmation from Rhode Island. Congratulations to your son!
Mr. Sawyer,
If our school still does not notified us tomorrow, will we be able to find the official cutoffs anywhere?
Thanks
Frank,
Here, I hope. 😉
NMSC’s history on publishing cutoffs on the day of the release is mixed. You can check the Press Release page and see if they have updated the Guide to the Merit Program to the 2025 version.
The press release doesn’t really contain any useful info, IMO. I thought it would have more dada (total, number by state, etc.)
https://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/guide_to_the_national_merit_scholarship_program.pdf?gid=2&pgid=61&sessionid=201962f4-5ae9-4a13-9dab-a5434299483c&cc=1
thank you!
My daughter is at a 215 in KY and I checked with the school just this morning and they have not been notified or received anything.
Congratulations to your daughter! The mail sometimes gets delayed. They can contact National Merit to see if they can get online access to their list.
Hey! My school sent out an email this morning saying I qualified. 215 from SC. I’m like 90% sure it’s correct, although my school has been known to be disorganized/not know what they’re talking about. Thanks for all the updates, I’ve been checking this page a lot over the past week or so.
It’s correct. Congratulations!
Alabama 214, Alaska 215, Arizona 218, Arkansas 215, California 224, Colorado 219, Connecticut 223, Delaware 220, Florida 219, Georgia 220, Hawaii 219, Idaho 215, Illinois 222, Indiana 218, Iowa 214, Kansas 216, Kentucky 214, Louisiana 216, Maine 217, Maryland 224, Massachusetts 225, Michigan 220, Minnesota 219, Mississippi 213, Missouri 217, Montana 213, Nebraska 214, Nevada 214, New Hampshire 219, New Jersey 225, New Mexico 210, New York 223, North Carolina 220, North Dakota 210, Ohio 219, Oklahoma 212, Oregon 219, Pennsylvania 221, Rhode Island 219, South Carolina 215, South Dakota 211, Tennessee 219, Texas 222, Utah 213, Vermont 216, Virginia 224, Washington 224, West Virginia 210, Wisconsin 215, Wyoming 210, District of Columbia 225, U.S. boarding schools ***, U.S. territories 210, Outside the U.S. 225
Thank you, Alex!
PA cutoff is 221
Thank you, JK.
My daughter did not qualify in Georgia at 219. I don’t know the cutoff, but at least >219. I’m devastated but thankfully she was like “oh well” and went on about her day. I really thought at 219 (730/730), she would qualify. Probably came down to 1-2 questions. If only she had had her 760 in RW from her sophomore year, I’m sure she would have qualified in GA even with this year’s wacky scores. Looking forward to your postmortem . Thanks for keeping us all informed.
I’m sorry that your daughter missed the cutoff (220). She should still be proud of her score!
I look forward to your analysis . Very curious also how many states broke records and by how many points . As a parent, this is my first year learning about all this. We had the highest index our state had previously seen and a corporate scholarship potential so it is disappointing to have the state break records by 2 points . I am also curious how within the states the socioeconomic representation is…. Not sure if your analysis will touch on this or if anything is ever published about this ? Especially with the large states that have pockets of wealth
11 states set new records (12 if you exclude Maryland’s COVID year). All of those records were in high-scoring states. The forces that had kept changes muted in the 220+ states for 20 years suddenly let loose.
NMSC doesn’t report any socioeconomic details. When I’ve looked at the city by city data in the past, they confirm what we know about high scores generally — they correlate with parental education and income.
Hi Art,
Well the late Tuesday Ohio info on Reddit was accurate about the cut off being 219! Phew! My daughter did make it with her 220, as you correctly predicted quite some time ago. In fact, despite the crazy scoring in some of the states, your forecasted range was correct for 42 states, with your “likely” being exactly correct in 1/3 of them at 14.
Thanks again for your informative site and commentary!
Thank you, Chas!
Looks like Montana (a low-scoring state, historically) might have set a new record, too – 4pts up from last year and 3pts higher than your “Likely” (which you continue to nail with a high degree of accuracy across all states, by the way). I wonder if this reflects demographic shifts into Montana over the last 4 years. My kid scored 213, so we’re waiting to hear from the school (since NMSC sends names to media but not to, ya know, “the names” themselves). Thanks for your work here.
CoachW,
In a normal year, there is always a Montana, a small state with a surprise. What made this year so unusual was that surprises extended to the largest states and to the highest scoring states.
Demographic changes could be playing a role, although we do see small states have unusual years occasionally. Montana has fewer than 50 Semifinalists each year, so it doesn’t take much to shift the cutoff. A couple of high schools offering the PSAT for the first time. The presence of some math items that aligned well with Montana’s standards, etc. Some of it just boils down to luck. Those 50 students range from 213 to 228 (last year from 209 to 228), so at some of those indexes, there were very few students.
Or, it’s all about “Yellowstone.” 😉
You should hear soon. If you want your student to do something more productive than waiting, I posted the essay prompt (which never changes).
Art, one thing that’s become apparent over the past two years is that you serve as an important distributor of information about this entire process. Any Google search in the past two weeks quickly led right to this blog. Other blogs use you as their yardstick too.
Given how difficult it is to get information passed through the media, I am wondering if you’ve ever inquired about getting a media credential from NMSC based on this blog. so that you can also receive yhe press releases. I am sure you would reach a wide audience, and it would serve a great public good. There would be concerns about preferntial treatment towards a consultant, but I suspect there is a way through that.
As an example of what is NOT working: NMSC gave me the names of 3 media outlets in my state that they release information to. I had already written two of these – neither has ever released any news about the NMS process. They simply don’t understand it and are not interested.
Matt,
Thank you for the kind words. I suppose that I could ask you for a recommendation letter to NMSC.
A media credential would take away one of the things that I value — the ability to talk openly about the entire process. I don’t want an NDA, I want NMSC to disclose more. Instead, it went in the other direction this year and locked things down even harder. I think the current notification process is unnecessarily cruel. Let’s make students wait 11 months and then dribble out notifications in a haphazard manner. The process that worked 50 years ago needs to be updated. What college still uses the “fat envelope in US Mail” style of admission notification? It’s especially true because, as you point out, media organizations are no longer in a position to carry part of the burden.
I’m a big supporter of National Merit, and NMSC does an amazing job on so many things. It’s a wonderful organization that I want to see thrive. The Semifinalist process needs to be improved.
Any news on NC besides a 220 cut off? My son school has heard and received nothing and multiple other posters on Reddit saying the same. Also can’t find any press releases.
Linda,
That’s not unusual. The notification process is…dated. Now that the results have been released, you should be able to call NMSC to get your son’s status confirmed. He’ll still need the letter from the school within login information to the OSA (Online Scholarship Application), but there is really no rush. Other than the essay, the application will take an hour (if he types really slowly) to fill out. The essay prompt is the same that NM always uses, so he can get started on that, too. It’s so general that one of his college essays can be quickly tailored.
To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space below.
I think students find that they can fit about 600 words. Good luck with Finalist!
My daughter is at a 228 in NJ and I have not been notified any from school yet. Should I contact the school?
Yes, I would start there, because the letter from the school has the login information needed for the next stage. Check out the post that should be right above yours for the essay topic.
Glad Maryland is not the crazy 226!
Yes, the 225s were crazy enough!
Mr. Sawyer,
What is a high enough confirming score? Here are the tests I have taken:
ACT #1:
35E 31R 32M 33S (33 composite)
ACT #2:
34E 35R 32M 28 S (32 composite)
Test 2 would result in a high confirming score, however, it is not my highest composite score, and I believe they do not superscore (my superscore is a 34 if that matters). Would they take Test 2 or Test 1? Do my scores look high enough to advance to finalist?
Thanks!
Frank,
Short answer: Submit test 2 and you are good to go!
Long answer:
NMSC doesn’t use your composite school when evaluating your standing for Finalist or Scholar. The confirming score requirement is strictly pass/fail, and you pass. Your combined E+R is 69 and that concords to a 740 RW. Your 32M would be a 730 M. That gives you an SAT Selection Index of 221, and you should be good with 210 or higher (NMSC generally sets things at the Commended level). I know it seems odd to send your “lower” score, but science is completely ignored. No superscoring with National Merit.
Hi Art,
I just wanted to thank you for your incredible work. I’ve left several messages for this entire process, and you were always there to reply in a timely manner. The effort that you put in, cycle after cycle, is really admirable. Please keep being an incredible resource!
Thank you, Janet! Every year I hit a lull in June/July where I wonder whether I’ll have the energy for Aug/Sep. And then each year I get excited to help.
Art,
This might be a bit early, but given the way that things ultimately unfolded this year, what do you think is going to happen with next year’s national merit competition? Cutoffs, scaling, notification process, etc.
Veron,
I think the most important takeaway from this year is that high-scoring states are no longer immune from the disruption seen in the past at the Commended+ range. Has College Board lost hold of the scale or is this just a fluke from a bad test date? I don’t think we can know definitively, but either way we now know to expect the unexpected.
NMSC had more than its share of fumbles this year, so maybe it will get them thinking about modifications in the future. I don’t expect those changes to happen for the class of 2027. The glass half full view is that at least we know how the process works!
Magnet school in Texas just announced and said the cutoff was 223 this year for Texas.
Austin,
My guess is that they didn’t have any students at 222 and assumed the cutoff was 223. The Texas cutoff has been confirmed as 222 by National Merit. Thank you!
Thanks for posting the state data link above. Is there anyway to find out the district or school data for a state? I am just curious as I am trying to understand the TN data. This year the cut off for TN jumped 2 points to 219. I know this was possible since it has happened before but not likely (I have followed your projections closely). Our district is a very high performing district. When you look at last year’s data, the cut off of TN was 217 that resulted in 319 semifinalists statewide of those 88 were from our district (27.9%). This year even though the cut off was raised to 219, I’d expect to see our district perform similar to last year. The state number for semifinalists was 306 (at the 219 cut off so fewer than last year which would be expected); however; our district only had 60 semifinalist (down to 19.6% of the state semifinalists). This tells me either a lot of students improved tremendously (outside of our district), maybe a school was added that skewed the numbers, perhaps our students did not improve proportionally with the state improvement, or maybe we just have a lot of students that scored at the 218 index? I like for the math to make sense, but I cannot get it to so I’d love to know what happened. Yes my daughter scored 218 and did not make the cut. So is more data available. Just curious. Thanks for all the information you provide.
Amy,
National Merit does not provide any information below the state level. College Board makes some school and district data available, but only to the school and districts. And District X doesn’t have access to District Y.
The odd thing about this year is that the 2-point rise was what we would “expect” from Tennessee. Twenty-five of fifty states went up by exactly 2 points, and thirty-two went up by 2 or more points. The extent of the increase makes me believe that the change is attributable more to College Board than anything at the student level. Tests are not always scaled perfectly, and this year’s PSAT is evidence of that.
So why did the number of Semifinalists in your district go down? You’ve outlined the leading theories. We sometimes see that level of shift at top schools that might have do – 80 NMSFs. We are, after all, only talking about a shift in 28 students. I don’t know if you’ve gone back further and seen how consistent the NMSF numbers are for your district. In the “old days” of paper testing, I would have tried to investigate whether different forms of the PSAT performed differently. We saw, at times, where the Wed test produced highly dissimilar results to the Saturday test (and not simply due to differing pools). The digital PSAT is scaled such that all of that information is invisible to us. The questions used, the parameters of those questions, the score distributions, etc. are all hidden away. Did your district’s students take a test that produced an anomalous result versus the majority of other districts? We saw that arise sometimes on the paper test.
My daughter’s counselor said school still did not recieved any yet and she thinks it will be later in the month! But I see so many other schools posted their semi-finalists already. Does it come by email? or package to school?- NJ
JK,
The information comes via snail mail. In the past, NMSC mailed everything at once — a school’s list and a larger master list. This year NMSC only mailed the basic list and told schools that everything else would come later. The counselor should be able to call NMSC and usher things along if they are willing to do that. You can call NMSC to confirm that your daughter qualified. If she did, then really all you need to do is have your daughter start on the essay (prompt is in our NM FAQ), make sure that she has the confirming SAT/ACT score, and remind the school that they’ll need to follow up. The school’s most important role is getting your daughter the login information and then submitting her completed application along with a recommendation. That’s not until October. NMSC wants students to participate and will make it happen. It’s just not great about making it happen all at once.
I’m sure she is qualified since she got a perfect score, 1520. Thank you for your info
Mr. Sawyer, what is the percentage of PSAT test takers that qualified as Commended from the Class of 2026?
Petra,
Almost 41,000 qualified as Commended this year from a pool of 1,445,000 test takers. That’s about 2.8%.
Mr. Sawyer,
what is the expected cutoff for finalist? I am in GA and my SAT NMSC index will be 223.
Thanks
AG
AG,
The confirming score cutoff is set nationally rather than by state. In the past, the cutoff has been at the Commended level, so I expect 210 to be sufficient. 223 certainly is!
Thank you. any other insights into what is required to make it to the 15000 finalist list? I am assuming SAT NMSC Index is just 1 factor. If there is anything else I can focus on my application, then please let me know. Thanks again!
AG,
For good or bad, much of it is out of your hands at this point. Your grades definitely matter! You’ll need a recommendation from the school (they are usually happy to do it). And your own essay, of course, although I believe that’s used more at the scholarship stage than the Finalist stage. Handle those things and you’re likely to be a Finalist.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the great write-up and analysis and keeping us anxious parents/students posted through the entire process. As we keep moving on with this process with our current senior, we will keep monitoring your blog and be back in a year with our current sophomore going through this again!
Ely,
Glad that I can help. I look forward to having you as a returning visitor!
Art,
Have you ever seen a student make NMSF when they were not on the original press release? Our school announced a student who wasn’t on the National Merit list for the state originally. Is there an appeal process for NMSF or a lower cutoff for students with testing accommodations? Just seems odd…
Thanks for all you do!
It’s not that uncommon. It definitely does not represent a different standard — the student must meet the same cutoff. NMSC deals with tens of thousands of students, many of whom are on the move — either geographically or between class years — so things can fall through the cracks. Sometimes students list the wrong thing such as class year on the registration form, and no one catches the mistake until it’s too late to get on the printed list. [I’ll bet that there are more than a few students dealing with that situation right now!] Some alternate entry students can also lag behind.
I don’t think it’s any of those things, but thank you for super quick response!! I don’t know how you do it!
Hi – my son, class of 2026, got a selection index of 213, his school has not received anything about him being a commended student. Even though he is not a semifinalist, it would still be good to include being a commended student on his college application. How should we go about looking into whether he should have the recognition? Thank you!
CC,
As long as he scored at 210 or higher and took the test as a junior, then he is a Commended Student. Your best bet is to contact NMSC directly to see if they can give your confirmation, but I would not be hesitant to list it on his application. (847) 866-5100