Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
The above chart shows what -2 wrong SI scores would be but any guess to what the variance in -1 scores are? Feels a bit absurd that someone can miss -2 and get same SI as my son who had -1 (reading) with SI of 224.
He had taken the Oct SAT before the Oct 16 Psat and also got -1 reading and it only reduced his score by -10 vs the PSAT which was -20.
JH,
On the Oct 16th test, 1 wrong in reading took a student to 224 (your son). 1 wrong in Writing was 226, and 1 wrong in Math was 226. On the Oct 30th test, the figures would be 226 for -1 R, 224 for -1 W, and 227 for -1 M. College Board’s scoring model showed that the Reading was particularly easy, so that accounts for the large drop. The PSAT has, quite frankly, become too easy to do a good job with NMSF. That said, your son’s 224 will make him an NMSF.
Leave it to my kid to miss it in the easy section 😂. Thanks!
State: Missouri
THANK YOU FOR ALL OF YOUR RESEARCH AND INFO!
1-) My son was scored as 47 of 48 Math correct and 1 omitted. He is sure he answered every question and had the correct answer for the one that was scored as “omitted”. His Math dropped from perfect 760 to a 740. Collegeboard can’t explain why it was scored as omitted or why his score dropped 20 points for one “omission.” Can you recommend any recourse?
2-) I think his selection index was a 211…. any hope of commended for Missouri?
THANKS!
– Tim
Tim,
(1) I don’t know of any rescoring procedure for the PSAT. There are 2 things that I sometimes see happen: 1) students answer the question in their booklets but forget to transfer the answer and 2) students accidentally bubble in 2 answers or don’t properly erase a changed answer. A “double bubble” is treated as an omit. I state these as FYIs, since I don’t know what happened in your son’s case.
A wrong answer and an omission are treated identically on PSAT scoring. Unfortunately, the Math scale was fairly steep. If it’s any consolations — and it probably isn’t — 1 wrong on Reading dropped a student’s score by 4 SI points.
(2) Yes, he has an excellent chance. Based on what I have seen, I expect the Commended level to drop to 211 or lower.
THANK YOU, ART!
Hi Art,
Thank you for this analysis. It is extremely informative and literally unavailable via any other source! My daughter achieved a 220 SI in Arizona on the October 16th, 2021 test. Any thoughts on her odds for semi-finalist (class of 2023)?
MLP,
I feel confident (95%) that Arizona will not set a new high and go to 221. Your daughter should be named a Semifinalist in August.
What do you think about a 217 for Alabama? Good enough for SF? Finalist?
John,
Yes. I don’t see how Alabama would move beyond that this year. PSAT is used that the SF stage and at the scholarship stage. It is not used in deciding Finalists.
Hi-
I got a 1450 with an index score of 217 in Ohio. Do you think that I would make the cutoff for a semi-finalist class of 2021?
Thanks!
Sarah,
I expect to see most of the populous states see declines, but I can’t say with absolute certainty.
Art, daughter got 219 in Ohio, but goes to boarding school so they go by Illinois cutoff, unfortunately. What are the chances of =g getting it with 219 at Illinois you think?
Daniel,
I expect most states to see declines this year. I’d put that odds at about even that Illinois will drop to a 219.
Curiously, NHRP cutoffs apparently are not yet available, unlike prior years when they were made available on the first Monday in Feb. Cutoffs might not be available until March. Have you heard anything about NHRP for class of 2021?
Janet,
College Board has added new recognition programs, so it’s not surprising that timelines are being reshuffled. I don’t yet have any confirmations on class of 2021 cutoffs.
Hello,
My son got a Selection Index of 221 from CA. Do you think he would qualify for NMSF? Thanks!
Karpagam,
We can’t say with certainty, but I will be very surprised if the CA cutoff does not drop to 221 or lower. Unfortunately, we won’t get the actual cutoff until around Labor Day.
I have a SI of 215 and I’m from Idaho. How likely do you think is Idaho’s cutoff this year to be at 216 or higher?
Also, I noticed that 95% of NM Semifinalists move onto the Finalist rounds. Any thoughts on how the unlucky 5% who don’t advance are chosen? I really don’t want to be in that 5% if I’m a semifinalist lol
(Thanks btw for all your research, it’s been helpful)
Logan,
With only 80-90 Semifinalists, Idaho’s cutoff can swing more than in larger states (it doesn’t take much of a bumper crop of 216s or 217s). That said, I like your chances. Few — maybe even no — states will see higher cutoffs this year.
NMSC doesn’t break down the specific reasons, but we can speculate. First, there are some students that just don’t care and don’t apply. You’re not in that group. Second, your grades need to be exceptional. NMSC doesn’t quantify that. With a transcript of mostly A’s, you’d probably be in good shape. Third, you need to achieve a confirming score on the ACT or SAT. This usually falls around the Commended level. So think about calculating a Selection Index from an SAT score. If you’re at 213+, you should be good. Fourth, you need the recommendation of your school. This is not the year to get suspended! My guess is that most students miss out because of low ACT/SAT scores or grades.
Hello, I got a 1460 on October 16 PSAT, which was a 219. I was kind of disappointed because I got the same score as a sophomore, plus I got a 1560 on the actual SAT in October of this year. Do you think 219 will be enough for a National Merit scholarship in DC this year?
J,
Congratulations on the 1560. DC’s cutoff is set at the nation’s highest state cutoff, so we’d need to see every state drop to 219. Unfortunately, I think that’s unlikely.
Hi Art,
How do you feel about the National Merit cut-offs for mid sized states? We are in Minnesota with a 217; how confident are you that the MN cut off will drop to that level as estimated?
Ann,
When we are talking about changes of this size, it’s best not to be overconfident one way or the other. The data I have analyzed tells me that most cutoffs will drop this year. I’d expect the average decline to be at least 2 points. We can’t automatically conclude, though, that MN will drop to 217.
Do you have any insight on how big a problem it is if the school submitted their part for the finalist application late? We are anxiously waiting to hear daughter’s status because it looks like the school’s submission was about 1 1/2 weeks after the Oct 9 deadline.
Liz,
I hope things have turned out OK. Definitely call NMSC and explain the situation.
In Massachusetts, it would seem that many of the stronger public school districts (Newton North and South, Concord-Carlisle, Lexington, Acton-Boxborough, Dover-Sherborn, Westford Academy, Wayland, etc.) opted for the Saturday testing date. In light of the more forgiving curve for 10/19, how do you think this regional testing difference will play into the state specific cut-off? Do you have sufficient data from this state to suggest the drop in cutoff or are you extrapolating from national data? Sitting with a 222 Index in an unforgiving state while this all shakes out is a bit unpleasant!
Mark,
We don’t know what the score distribution looks like for Saturday. In the past, we have not noticed big differences between states based on test date. My guess is that MA is large enough to where the Wed/Sat split evens out, but you raise an interesting possibility. I definitely do not have sufficient data to have any state-specific insights.
My son received a 1520 and an index score of 224 as a Virginia resident in October. Do you think his odds are good for a Finalist?
Rick,
His odds are 100% to reach Semifinalist in September. At that point, he’ll apply to become a Finalist based on his test scores, grades, recommendation, and essay.
Hi, My son got 222 and we are from Wisconsin, How is his chance to be semi finalist/finalist. Thanks
Jothi,
Congratulations, your son will be a Semifinalist. His grades, scores, recommendations, and essay will determine whether or not he becomes a Finalist in Jan/Feb 2021, but he is off to a great start.
Hi Art,
My son in Oregon had a perfect math score and perfect reading score but kinda bombed grammar. He is at 218. Do you think he has a chance?
Lisa,
I can only base my estimates on the national trends, and this year’s trends — as you’ve read — are a bit wacky. I’d say that you’s son’s chances are 50/50. I expect a 2-point decline to be common.
Hi Art,
do you think 222 is good enough for WA?
BR,
I don’t think we’ll see any of the states at WA’s size move higher, let alone 2 points higher. I really like your chances with a 222.
Hello!
I have a selection score of 212. I saw your predicted commended scores were lower than this. Is there a good shot that this score will end up being commended? Also, I saw that the commended score leaks in April. How does that work?
Thank you!
F-T,
Yes, I think there is near certainty that the Commended cutoff will decline this year. NMSC has to contact schools in the spring to begin assembling data to verify student eligibility. It only asks about students in the Commended and above range, so the cutoff usually leaks that way.
Mr.Sawyer,
My daughter scored a 221 SI and we live in Texas. She recently received an invitation for a “JuniorNational Scholar session” from Texas A&M. On the registration website it said “This invite only social is for potential National Scholars who have scored high on their PSAT and may be recognized as a National Merit or National Hispanic Scholar in their senior year. ” I was under the impression that we will only know the cutoffs oficially in late August, does this mean that the Universities already have this information?
Thanks,
SB
SB,
Thanks for bringing this up, since it creates confusion each year. I can guarantee that colleges do not know the cutoffs. A&M buys lists from College Board with a certain range of scores and expects it to roughly cover NM/NHRP students. I’m pretty confident that your daughter will be NMSF, but that level of confidence is not impacted by the invitation.
Mr. Sawyer,
Thank you very much for the reply. This event was last Saturday, and my daughter could not attend it because of a school golf tournament (she placed second :)). I was a little disappointed that she was not able to attend, especially because A&M gives out a sizable scholarship to resident students who are finalists. When the scores came out in December, she and I decided to wait till September and be pleasantly surprised if her score qualifies her for NMSF. Still, this email gave me some hope. I guess we will stick to our original decision and wait till fall. Thanks again.
SB.
SB,
That sounds like a good plan. I will see you in September.
Hi Art,
I live in South Carolina and got a 211, I know it is slightly below the predicted index of SC but it is slightly above the commended index. What do you think the chances are for me?
Thank you so much!!
Benjamin,
I’m confident that you will at least be a Commended Student. There is plenty of evidence that scores dropped this year. In recent years, SC’s cutoff has been 3-6 points above the Commended level. A 211 cutoff for SC is not out of the question, but it’s just a bit outside of my expected range.
Thanks for the reply!
I just also wanted to add that on the College Board website, it says that my overall score is in the top 99% of the nation. This is the same case with each individual section score. Are these stats reliable and would they change anything?
Benjamin,
No, it’s not reliable, and no, it doesn’t change anything. Percentiles are based on the prior 3 years of results and don’t even include this year’s results.
How is a 219 looking in Georgia? Hoping GA goes down at least 1?
Mollie,
There is no data available on a state-by-state basis. I think we’ll see most states decline, so a 219 looks pretty good this year.
Hey! I got a selection score of 217 for IL, what do you think my chances are?
Thanks 🙂
Era,
I don’t think your chances are zero (that’s why I included 217 in my estimated range), but it would be extremely unusual for a state as large as IL to see a 4-point change. You will more likely be named a Commended Student.
My DD got a 216 as her score in Colorado. Will she be commended or get a National Merit Scholar?
MG,
I don’t think a 216 will make the Semifinalist cutoff this year in Colorado. Your daughter will likely be Commended.
Hi Art,
Thank you for your informative posts. My son received an SI of 220 (for California). Can you briefly explain or point me to a prior post that explains why larger states such as California would experience a greater decline (in this instance -2) in the SI cutoff for semifinalists? What would be your best guess for the probability that the SI cutoff in California will be 221 vs 220 (50/50 or some other ratio?)
Likewise, how informative (or not) will the April commended SI cutoff be, to infer the eventual September semifinalist SI cutoff, in particular for California? Thank you.
Kent,
If I wrote that larger states see greater declines, then I misspoke. Larger states see more stable cutoffs, in general. Let’s say that we knew, nationally, that the same number of students scored 220 and above this year as scored 222 and above last year. It would be likely that California would see a 2-point decline. A smaller state is more vulnerable to population shifts. Maybe a high-performing school skips the PSAT this year. Maybe the class just has fewer superstars. That’s why states such as Alaska or South Dakota can see swings that don’t correspond with national trends. Of course we don’t know that there were as many 220+ this year as 222+ last year, and that’s not a figure that is ever published.
The Commended cutoff will give us some additional confirmation of the trends we are seeing, but it probably won’t change my estimate for states at the top end of the scale. The fact that there are fewer students scoring 209+, for example, doesn’t tell us that much about students scoring 220+. Still, it will be nice to see the impact.
Yes, I’d say 50/50 or maybe 40/60. I think the evidence points to drops of more than 1 point in most states.
I’m curious – are there any trends in the number of students taking the PSAT? My daughter’s high school did a particularly poor job of reminding students to sign up for the exam and lots of other students decided not to take it simply because don’t see it as useful.
Lisa,
PSAT numbers have been relatively stable. The biggest drivers tend to be decisions about state or district-wide testing. There have always been schools that do a poor job of informing students.
I received a index score of 218 in Florida (perfect in math and writing). Do you think I can be confident about becoming a semifinalist?
Josh,
I think you’ll be a Semifinalist. I can’t say that it is guaranteed, but Florida will almost certainly see a lower cutoff this year.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
Thank you SO MUCH for all your hard work to keep us informed and answer our questions! I understand it’s all a guessing game until the final cutoffs are released, but what do you think are the chances of a student with a 212 in Alabama making semifinalist?
SJones,
It will be tough, but it not impossible. Alabama’s cutoff usually falls within 4-6 points of the Commended cutoff. If we see a really low Commended level, then your odds improve.
Hi Art,
My son had an index score of 220 in SC. It seems that he has a fairly good chance to be a semi finalist. He just received a 34 on his ACT and will be taking the SAT in March. Are there any other things he should be doing this year to increase his chances of becoming a finalist?
SFSC,
His 34 will be high enough to serve as a confirming score for Finalist. He needs to keep his grades up and make sure that he does nothing to upset the school administration (he will need their recommendation). It looks like he is on track!
Hi Mr. Sawyer! I got a 223 (perfect ERW, all points off in math), but I’m in Virginia, which I know is one of the harder states. How do you think my chances are? Thank you so much!
Ellie,
I am confident that Virginia will not be going above 223 this year. Congratulations!