After months of speculation and projections, the official National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs for the class of 2027 were released September 9th. On average, these are the lowest cutoffs in National Merit history, with all 50 state cutoffs sitting lower than they did last year. Most cutoffs went down at least 3 points from the class of 2026’s figures. Alaska set the pace with a 7-point decline. New Jersey again finished with the highest mark, dropping from 225 to 223. Compass will explore:
- How the class of 2027 results stack up historically and how cutoffs are set
- The lower number of Semifinalists nationally
- Why cutoffs declined so precipitously. Hint: It’s not the students.
- The implications of score instability for students, schools, and states
- What the class of 2028 might expect after they take the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and on what timeline
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even “full-rides” for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, look at whether a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
Summarizing the changes seen for the class of 2027
In October 2015 the PSAT moved to a 320-1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400-1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are in the last eleven class years.
This year saw the average Semifinalist cutoff hit a record low. It provided something of a mirror image to the class of 2026. Last year, 11 states set new record highs in the modern PSAT era, and 10 more tied their records. This year, 5 states established new lows, and 18 tied their record lows. Kansas and Minnesota both dropped 2 points below their previous lows, an unusual event for mid-sized states. Even more unusual was what happened in the largest dozen states. None of those has ever seen a drop of more than 3 points, but this year saw California, Illinois, and Michigan fall 4 points.
Results this year were closer to those in the class of 2024 than they were to the previous two years’ results. Recency is not always a predictor of future results. The Commended level, which is set nationally, declined 2 points this year to 208. The Semifinalist cutoffs, in contrast, fell 3 points.
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Why did the total number of Semifinalists decline?
After recognizing more than 17,000 Semifinalists in the prior two years, the class of 2027 saw only 16,230, a decline of 5%. The decline in Semifinalists is a separate issue from lower cutoffs. Setting cutoffs can be a blunt tool. In a large state, there may be more than 200-300 students at a single score. Small states might have multiple scores with zero students. NMSC can’t always hit its targets on the nose. Below are the largest swings in both directions.
How Semifinalists are allocated among states
It’s possible that NMSC recalibrated the total target number of Semifinalists this year. It helps to understand how National Merit sets cutoffs. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school students, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
The changes in the above chart fit within the historical pattern, so students should expect similar swings to happen in the future. New Jersey had about the same number of Semifinalists in 2023 as it saw this year, and actually fell from a greater height compared to 2022. Similarly, Texas saw fewer than 1,462 Semifinalists in classes of 2020, 2021, and 2022. And there is little chance that NMSC calculated that Texas’ high school population was falling faster than, say, California’s. We won’t know until next September whether the 16,230 Semifinalists was a fluke or a new standard.
The Mystery of the Declining PSAT Scores
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. National Merit cutoffs may not have the makings of a Sherlock Holmes novel. The guilty party is too easy to identify and the deduction not all that improbable. To borrow from another mystery trope: it’s College Board in the testing room with a faulty scale.
When test scores change from year-to-year, College Board issues press releases discussing testing patterns and student achievement. What they never include is “That one’s on us.” When it comes to National Merit scores, however, it often is.
A history of change
Over the last seventeen years, there have been six classes that saw cutoffs change in more than forty states. The heat strip below shows how cutoffs shift from year to year.
Even if we eliminate “bounce back” years where scores come back into line after an unusual shift, a major disruption occurs approximately every 4 years. Interestingly, none of those scoring disruptions can be attached to the biggest behavioral disruption of all — the Covid cancellations that drove PSAT/NMSQT volumes below one million for the first time in decades. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (class of 2013), 2016 (class of 2018), and 2019 (class of 2021) stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year, similar to what we are seeing with the class of 2027.
When Semifinalist cutoffs reached vertiginous levels last year, several theories made the rounds:
- (A) Covid-related learning losses were vanquished
- (B) The integrated Desmos calculator on the digital PSAT had “broken” the Math section
- (C) Test preparation — and maybe AI-enabled test preparation — had made the test too easy
- (D) The test taking population shifted
Compass disputed each of these theories, but it wasn’t until this year’s free-fall that we could put each of them fully to rest. A key piece of evidence is which scores rose and fell.
Over the most recent three PSATs, the highest reported Math scores (College Board groups all 700-760 scores together) did go up on the October 2024 PSAT, but they settled back down on the October 2025 PSAT. If improving Math skills were the key driver, why did they not keep progressing upward? The fall PSAT also provides an inherent double-check, because sophomores and juniors both take the exam in similar numbers. Sophomores and juniors consistently tracked each other across the different exams. The class of 2025 and 2026 overlapped, then 2026 and 2027, and then 2027 and 2028. Every PSAT the movement has been similar. Yet sophomores do not do test preparation in sufficient force to shape score results. The sets of classes were in different points of math development during remote learning, and yet they showed the same rises and falls. Learning loss and test preparation do not provide coherent answers.
Reading & Writing scores were the true driver of the class of 2026 records and the 2027 declines
High RW scores are typically less common than high Math scores. But on the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Top scores went up by 18%. The double-weight that RW scores provide in the Selection Index pushed cutoffs to new highs. The 210 Commended ranked only fourth when compared to the previous decade. Earlier class years saw cutoffs of 211 and 212 (twice). So why did last year’s cutoffs rise to levels that had seemed impossible? The highest cutoffs had never exceeded 223 (Maryland’s 224 in the class of 2022 was due to every PSAT in the state being cancelled and students qualifying via SAT scores). How did New Jersey and Massachusetts reach 225 and California, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington end up at 224? The best explanation is that the very top RW scores — 740-760 — increased at an even higher rate than 700-730s. A 225 cutoff is not possible without at least a 750 RW. A 224 requires at least a 740 RW. Students were acing the test in record numbers.
The plummet for the class of 2027
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for the class of 2027 is even lower than it was two years ago. The surfeit of 700+ scores dried up. Obtaining a 740-760 grew harder. As with Math scores, sophomore performance changes matched that of juniors.
Process of elimination
The rapid gains and collapse eliminate (A), (B), and (C). As sophomores, the class of 2027 was phenomenal at reading according to the PSAT. Post-Covid learning changes cannot explain why they suddenly struggled as juniors. Option (B) doesn’t fit, because Math scores were not the source of the changes. Why would test preparation have stopped working (C), and how can it explain that sophomores and juniors were similarly impacted across the years? This leaves (D) as a remote contender. Except that it fails to explain the 50-state reach of the changes and the magnitude of the changes even in the largest states.
Thirteen of the largest fifteen states dropped by 3 points or more. Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw 2-point declines. If the smaller states were pulling down the class of 2027’s average cutoffs, we might at least attribute some of the disruption to the instability of cutoffs when there are fewer than 100 Semifinalists. That’s not what happened. And if only a few large states saw inflows or outflows of top test takers, the impact would have been muted. Nor did overall test taker numbers change much. When the entire set of large states has this magnitude of a change, the test scale itself has to be at the heart of it.
What does a 3-point change represent and why is it so bad?
For simplicity, the change can be characterized as a 15-point miss in RW on the 160-760 scale (200-800 on the SAT).
- The typical annual growth in RW scores is about 40-50 points, so the scale change represents approximately one-third of an academic year.
- Systematic scaling error is additive to individual student fluctuations in scores — typically around +/-30 points on each side of the PSAT and SAT. Scaling error makes it harder for students to determine where they will score and how their score stacks up.
- Scaling error produces incorrect percentile ranks, because percentiles are based on the 3 prior years of results. Sudden inflation or deflation gives an inaccurate read.
- The PSAT is used for purposes beyond National Merit such as AP placement or state-mandated testing. Results may not align with prior years or academic growth expectations.
- When error happens primarily on one side of the PSAT, some students are unfairly disadvantaged.
- In a competition such as National Merit where relative standing matters, a uniform increase or decrease might be tolerable. A rising tide lifts all students (sort of). Except that there is no way of knowing whether the error applied equally to all students. The digital PSAT is not a single form or even a limited set of forms. Exams across the PSAT testing window can vary, and even on the same test dates, students often see differing questions. It’s one of the security advantages provided by digital testing, but it can also be a curse. College Board provides no reporting on the items or scaling, so students (and Compass) have no way of assessing the impact on individuals. Schools have no way of knowing if their students were hit harder than at other schools.
- This keeps happening. Is College Board having difficulty keeping the digital PSAT scale consistent or will things stay more consistent over time? The historical record says that they will not.
Do these sorts of systematic scaling errors occur on the SAT?
They do. They are harder to spot, but likely even more common. Noted above is that the largest disruptions on the PSAT/NMSQT occur, on average, every 4 years. The SAT is given on (a) 8 national dates every year, (b) during a 2-month SAT School Day window in the spring, and (c) during a 1-month window in the fall. This accelerates the chance for errors. It creates a near certainty that some students will encounter systematic error in their favor and others will see it working against them.
The PSAT and the National Merit Scholarship Program provide a unique laboratory. The PSAT/NMSQT represents one slice in time. The population of PSAT takers is relatively stable from year to year, and the sophomore and junior PSATs provide a sort of longitudinal double-check. The 50 state cutoffs and their varying levels give information about the extent of scaling errors. Comparing ever-shifting SAT dates is difficult, especially because College Board restricts access to the data. It is unfortunate that the primary protection students have is taking the SAT multiple times. In combination with superscoring, it represents the best way for students to lock-in positive error.
How do errors happen? Shouldn’t scores stay consistent?
When new tests are designed, not every problem can be tested on previous populations of students. Instead, a sampling of problems is tested with a sampling of students, perhaps 4-5,000. In theory, that’s a significant enough size that random error will make little difference. The sample group should be comparable to the entire population. Random error is an acceptable part of test creation, because it largely cancels out at scale.
But what if the error is not random? What if the test design is flawed? For example, if the methodology continually overestimates the ability of the sample groups, future questions will be predicted to be harder than they really are. And then over-prediction may happen with the next group. This systematic bias can creep into a test production and equating process. Normally it is spotted. As we see from the October 2024 PSAT and similar examples, sometimes it is not. The National Merit program provides a challenge to test creators, because everything important happens in a narrow part of the scale. On the digital PSAT, only 50 questions count toward a student’s score. Differentiating between a 720 student, for example, and a 730 student, and a 740 student rests on small differences in performance. If College Board has the statistics even slightly off, scores will not align well across tests. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
Predictions and timeline for the class of 2028 and beyond
Compass has always warned students not to be too fixated on a single cutoff target. The crazy events of the last two years have made it obvious that cutoffs can move in large and unexpected ways. It’s better to think in terms of score ranges rather than a pass/fail score. Prior to the PSAT, we can only estimate based on historical figures, without knowing what kind of surprises College Board has in store. After the PSAT, Compass analyzes the national results in the broad buckets that College Board provides. This usually gives a clear idea of which way the overall trend is moving. We should see how RW and Math scores behave, what the 1400-1520 bucket looks like, and develop a tight estimate of the Commended cutoff. For example, here is the estimate from last year.
Unfortunately, it does not provide insight into individual states. In April, the Commended level usually leaks, and we get confirmation of the national trend predictions. It’s not until Semifinalist notifications start being handed out in late August that state-by-state information starts coming into focus.
Below is a pre-PSAT summary. Find the range of potential cutoffs in your state, and how it has stacked up in recent class years. Below the table is more information about the National Merit program. You may also want to consult our post on National Merit Explained, which goes more into the steps of the process, what different honors mean, and what sort of scholarships are available.
State | Class of 2028 (Est Range) | Class of 2027 (Actual) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg SF Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 239 |
| Alaska | 207-217 | 208 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 36 |
| Arizona | 214-220 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 359 |
| Arkansas | 209-215 | 210 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 145 |
| California | 219-224 | 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,125 |
| Colorado | 216-221 | 217 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 280 |
| Connecticut | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 182 |
| Delaware | 218-222 | 219 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 43 |
| Florida | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 959 |
| Georgia | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 554 |
| Hawaii | 215-220 | 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 210-216 | 211 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 90 |
| Illinois | 217-222 | 218 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 693 |
| Indiana | 214-219 | 215 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 320 |
| Iowa | 209-216 | 210 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 152 |
| Kansas | 211-219 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 208 |
| Louisiana | 210-217 | 211 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 227 |
| Maine | 211-217 | 214 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 61 |
| Maryland | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 313 |
| Massachusetts | 220-225 | 221 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 322 |
| Michigan | 215-220 | 216 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 509 |
| Minnesota | 213-220 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 284 |
| Mississippi | 209-215 | 211 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 149 |
| Missouri | 213-217 | 214 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 299 |
| Montana | 207-214 | 208 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 46 |
| Nebraska | 210-216 | 212 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 210-218 | 211 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 148 |
| New Hampshire | 213-219 | 215 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 486 |
| New Mexico | 207-215 | 209 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 99 |
| New York | 219-223 | 220 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 998 |
| North Carolina | 216-220 | 217 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 502 |
| North Dakota | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 28 |
| Ohio | 215-219 | 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 588 |
| Oklahoma | 208-216 | 210 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 195 |
| Oregon | 215-221 | 216 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 185 |
| Pennsylvania | 217-221 | 219 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 623 |
| Rhode Island | 212-220 | 213 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 50 |
| South Carolina | 209-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 225 |
| South Dakota | 208-215 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 213-219 | 214 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 324 |
| Texas | 218-222 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,508 |
| Utah | 208-216 | 209 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 181 |
| Vermont | 211-217 | 212 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 30 |
| Virginia | 219-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 412 |
| Washington | 220-224 | 221 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 353 |
| West Virginia | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 211-217 | 212 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 295 |
| Wyoming | 207-213 | 208 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 21 |
| District of Columbia | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Studying Abroad | 222-225 | 223 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 87 |
| U.S. Territories | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Commended | 207-212 | 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (320-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Mr. Sawyer, how are the commended students chosen? Does the NMSC choose them, and then notify the school?
Cristen,
NMSC determines the Selection Index that identifies approximately the top 55,000 students. Those not qualifying as Semifinalists (about 16,000) are named Commended Students (about 39,000). The Selection Index cutoff this year was 212, and that is applied nationally. NMSC notifies schools.
Thank you for the explanation. My son earned a 217 in Maryland so is not a semi-finalist. It sounds like he is getting the designation of a Commended Student and would love for him to put that on his college application. So far he hasn’t heard anything and he is likely going to start submitting applications this week. Has it been published to the schools yet?
PG,
High schools have been mailed Commended lists, but they sometimes disappear into a black hole. I would check with your son’s counselor. You might also try calling NMSC. At 217, he can be confident that he was named a Commended Student.
Hi, how do I get the list of names for New Jersey? Thank you.
Kate,
State lists are only available when media outlets choose to post them. Most only list area students. You could try contacting the reporter to see if they can email you the entire list. I know that some students and parents have been successful in the past.
Mr. Sawyer, Can you elaborate a bit on the comment you share about leaving the first college choice as “undecided” so that you do not miss on other possible scholarships from other schools? Thanks!
Kerri,
The best advice is to keep the First Choice up-to-date at all times. Using Undecided is one way of preventing an unwanted match, but the better way is usually to regularly evaluate the student’s choice. It won’t matter at all until the end of Feb, as names will start being released to colleges in March. Even after that, choices can be changed. The folks at NMSC are good at helping students navigate this process. If a student forgets to change from Undecided, NMSC will usually check in to see if a choice has actually been made. If a student has a clear first choice now, no reason not to put it down. If the student is still weighing several schools, you might want to leave it as Undecided. In either case, set a reminder — set several reminders — in February to revisit the choice.
None of this matters for students planning on attending a college that does not provide NM scholarships.
Hi Art––
I know this comes much later than some of the other states, but I just received the full list of New York State semifinalists. Since it doesn’t look like it’s been posted here yet, I thought I would provide a link. https://www.dropbox.com/s/e4rhd368kcodfa0/NY%20National%20Merit%20Semifinalists%202020.pdf?dl=0
Thank you for all your hard work!
-Anna
Thank you, Anna! The website that has published the NY list in the past did not come through this year. It’s nice to have a record of these.
Thank you Anna and Art! We had been trying to find the NY list!
Art – thank you for all your assistance. My daughter is completing her NMSF application and I want to ensure we understand the question – List one time honors or awards received. I am a bit confused – if she is always on the honor roll every semester, should we list this once?
Shawn,
Her academic record will speak for itself, so I don’t think listing honor roll adds anything to her application. This is a place for more specialized honors or awards.
Morning – How are students notified if they make the ‘commended’ level? Thanks!
Mp,
Schools are sent notifications (they were mailed out about 4 weeks ago). I would check with your college counselor or principal.
Checked with our school and they haven’t received info regarding commended. My son had a score of 218. Is there another way to find out? Would like to put it on college applications.
BandMom,
I would contact NMSC. (847) 866-5100. As long as he was otherwise eligible, we know that his 218 qualified. I would feel comfortable listing his Commended status.
Hi M. Sawyer. Last year as a Sophomore my son scored a 1260 on the PSAT. Does this score indicate a good possibility of him earning NM semifinalist status?
His strength is math as he took Calculus 1 and 2 at the local university last year (his high does not offer AP Calculus B/C) and earned A’s. On the PSAT math section he missed three question (unfortunately simple computational errors) and his score was a 640. Given that a perfect math score is 760 how is it that he lost 120 points with just three wrong answers? Is this accurate? He has been working hard to try to try and be a NM semifinalist (or higher) this year but is discouraged by the grading/scoring system. He feels he has to be perfect.
Greg,
Your son took the Oct 24, 2018 PSAT which had an extremely unusual scale. The math problems were far easier than usual, so the scale was far harsher to balance things out. On the Oct 10 form, for example, 3 wrong was a 730. Putting that aside, making NMSF is challenging. The ERW score is critical, since it is doubled in calculating a Selection Index. A student scoring 750 ERW could get a 700 and still reach a 220, for example. A student scoring 720 ERW would need a perfect 760 M to reach the same level. Those scores represent significant improvement from your son’s sophomore. NMSF is not out of the question, but it will require him hitting all of his marks.
Hi Art,
My 11th grader recently prepped for the Sept ACT and did quite well (99 percentile) but she just ran out of time to look at any SAT/PSAT materials before yesterday’s test.
Any chance her ACT prep correlates enough with the PSAT to have given her an edge, or did we drop the ball? PSAT 10 score last year was a 1360 before any studying so she had a lot of ground to cover.
Kevin,
Many of the testing skills are transferrable. I’d remain optimistic, especially since the alternative won’t help her PSAT score at this point. Fingers crossed for good news in December.
I would like the full list of 2020 National Merit Semifinalists for Ohio; I have contacted several media outlets without success. 😞
Sorry, Joseph, I don’t have any leads on the Ohio list.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, my son and a few other fellow students in his school made NM semifinalist. Today from the school newsletter, I saw one of them made to the finalist. We have not heard any status about my son. Do you know if the selection has been completed? Thanks.
Grace,
There is a miscommunication somewhere along the line. Finalists will be notified in early February.
Hi Mr. Swayer, does NMSC consider ACT scores for selecting Semi-Finalists. My 11th grader is giving ACT instead of SAT
Deb,
Semifinalists are chosen entirely based on junior year PSAT score, which was administered last month. For students qualifying as Semifinalists, NMSC does consider ACT scores when evaluating students for Finalist status.
So, I know it’s a little “off topic”, but how can one get some historic information? Looking for data from 1989-90. State cut offs and Commended info. Also seeking info for the Achievement (African American) and Latino National Merit competitions from that year, if possible….
D,
I do not know of any source for that information. NMSC does not publicly release cutoffs, and I don’t know of anyone who was able to collect them going back that far. The NHRP is run by College Board, which has also not released historical data.
Oct 16th PSAT curve was brutal. Any more than one wrong in each section put you below a 220 Selection Index. I’d love your best guess on Commended Cutoff for next year based on historic movement. Thanks.
Irene,
It’s frustrating the College Board has done this again. Do you have a source on the curve this year? I haven’t yet seen the public release. It’s very difficult to extrapolate from a curve to the impact on SI. I’ll be taking a look at as much release data as possible over the coming days and weeks to update estimates. Thanks.
Hi Art,
I saw someone on another site say that bc the curve was harsh, that suggests that kids scored higher nationally and the Commended Score may likely go to 214. I’m hoping that’s wrong since what the highest scoring kids did isn’t necessarily representative of what *most* kids did, correct?
On another site people contended that with a harsh curve, Selection Indexes would in fact go *down.* What has been your experience?
Is there reason to hope that 214 is too high for Commended since it’s also used as the NMF confirming score? Thanks as always for your valued insight!
Nervous,
To quote the Hollywood screenwriter William Goldman, “Nobody knows anything.”
We can’t discern what will happen based only on the scales. We certainly can’t assume that it points to higher scores, overall. I think that commenter is making some faulty assumptions. It is entirely possible, of course, that the Commended cutoff does move up, but the scale doesn’t tell us that. I hope to find out more about how many students scored in the 700-800 ranges in ERW and Math. That would be a better predictor of the Commended level (less useful for higher cutoffs).
Art,
Thanks for important insight. I’m *very* curious to know whether you think Commended 214 is unlikely if the Commended/confirming score this year was 212.
I would love to think 214 is too high to be expected of the NMSF to achieve for confirming scores in the lower cutoff states but maybe that’s wishful thinking from a parent with a kid sitting at 213. :-/
Nervous,
I don’t think it’s wishful thinking to expect the cutoff to come in below 214, but I don’t think we are going to know enough to completely rule it out before we get word in April. Two point movements upward are uncommon, but not unprecedented.
I see they are now posted. I know how my day is being spent…
Related to Irene’s question, how does a curve like this typically affect the state cutoff scores — or does it? Thank you for sharing your wisdom every year!
Theresa,
There isn’t usually a discernible connection. In a perfect world, the scale has no impact. Easier questions = harsher scale. Harder questions = easier scale. Everything should be in balance. The reality is not so clean when we are talking about the edge cases of National Merit. There is little room for error. For example, 1 wrong Reading question (and perfect Writing) dropped a student from 760 ERW to 740. That’s a drop of 4 points on the Selection Index. So doesn’t that mean cutoffs are likely to go down? It’s not that simple, since the easier makeup of this year’s Reading also means that it was easier for students to obtain a perfect score. Bright side: Easier to reach a 760. Dark side: A bigger drop with a single error.
Do you have any idea of any estimate of how many perfect scores there are in any given year? Even just a ballpark idea. I’m not going to quote you on anything, I’m just curious.
Ankit,
There is no data released on this, but my back-of-the-envelope would be about 1,500 – 2,000 students or around 0.1% of testers.
Are you gonna post the new predicted cutoffs for the class of 2012? This new curve was harsh and will it be generally lower than previous years?
Saitej,
I’m trying to gather as much information as possible and will have something up by next week. The harsh curve does not necessarily mean that cutoffs will be lower. The easier tests would also mean that students performed better — in terms of raw points.
Hello, Art, I got a score of 211 and I’m freaking out that I missed the commended cutoff of 2012 from last year. However, as stated previously by many, the score curve for this year was one of the worst ever so I was wondering what my chances would be of being commended. My national percentile based on my composite score was 97 as it was 1420. People who got 1440s and 1450s where in the 98th percentile if that helps. Thank you.
Neon,
There is certainly a possibility of the Commended level moving down to 211. The only thing I know for sure, though, is that percentiles won’t tell us whether that is true or not. The percentiles are calculated from results on the 2016, 2017, and 2018 exams. They don’t tell us anything about the distribution of scores this year. Realistically, the Commended level is going to be in the 210-214 range. Our ability to pin it down more specifically is very much limited by the amount of data supplied by College Board. We won’t know anything for sure until April. Which won’t, of course, stop me and you and many others from speculating.
Hey Art, the official college board scores came out and my 1420 classified as the 99th percentile can you help me make a sense out of that info since a week ago it was the unofficaly 97th percentile.
Neon,
On the printed score report, College Board uses the Nationally Representative Sample percentile — in other words, an estimate of your percentile if every junior in the U.S. took the PSAT. The 97th percentile you saw is the User percentile and includes only students who took the PSAT from 2016 – 2018. That group is filled with more college-bound students, so the percentiles are lower. I find it the more accurate number, and feel that it is misleading for College Board to emphasize the fake number.
Now that you have had a couple of days to dissect the information, any initial thoughts on the Oct 16th vs the Oct 30th PSAT test? Which curve will be more brutal for the kids who took each one?
FL,
One of the things that I hated about last year’s Oct 24th form was that it reeked of unfairness. Yes, it was an easier form, but it was so outside the norm that the scale couldn’t possibly deal with the difference in an accurate manner. The difference between 4 wrong on the Oct 10 form (720) and 4 wrong on the Oct 24 form (620) was 100 points. The difference this year is 10 points.
Whatever complaints students might have about this year’s set of exams, they are in it together. There is little difference between the two forms — probably less than usual. The Reading test was a bit easier on the 10/16 form (harsher scale), but the Writing was a bit easier on the 10/30 form. I looked at the various combinations of -1, -2, and -3 for ERW, and the scores are almost identical. The Math exams were quite similar if we are to believe the scales. There is basically a 10 point difference between -1, -2, -3, and -4. That’s a typical adjustment based on test difficulty.
It’s hard to know what impact this year’s scales will have compared to last year, but I do think the two dates are comparable. It’s unfortunate that NMSF cutoffs in the most competitive states can mean that things boil down to luck on 1 or 2 problems (or at least the careless errors or brain freezes that we often call “bad luck”).
I’ll be writing this up more extensively for the post. [And showing my work so that readers can point out any mistakes!]
My son scored a 1510 on the College Board’s PSAT Practice Exam 2 that he took the week before the 10/16 PSAT, and his lowest verbal score on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exams 1-4 was 720 (got 740, 720, 730 and 760 on the verbal sections). His guidance counselor told him his Oct 16 scores today: 760 math, but 690 verbal (don’t know how he was unable to break 700). His index score is 214. My son is so devastated by this score, as he was quite confident he would meet the National Merit cutoff. I don’t know how to explain this to him. To make matters worse, he plans to take the SAT (first time) this Saturday on 12/07. I think his confidence is completely shaken and he feels his upcoming SAT will not go well even though he earned the following scores on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exams 5, 8, 9 and 10: 1560 (790V, 770M), 1520 (750V, 770M), 1570 (770V, 800M), and 1550 (760V, 790M). He is hoping to score 1550 this Saturday. Are the practice exams put out by the College Board poor predictors of actual test day scores?
Interestingly, on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exam 5, he made 2 verbal errors and 2 math errors with a score of 1560 (790V, 770M). On SAT Practice Exam 10, he made 3 verbal errors and 2 math errors (just one more verbal error), but his score dropped to 1520 (a 40-point decline for 1 more error). Did something like this happen with this PSAT?
My son asked if an error might have been made and if it might be worthwhile to request his test get rescored – is that advisable?
I’ve never posted anything online before, but it breaks my heart to see my son so crushed today, and I am desperately searching for some guidance (and some encouragement for him as he heads into his SAT this Saturday). Thank you!
LD,
The most important thing, at this point, is to maintain a positive outlook for the SAT. I think your son’s confidence will come back, and it sounds like the 690 was just an anomaly. Practice tests 1-4 are prototypes that were never used in the wild. Practice tests 5-10 are released exams, so they accurately reflect SAT content. The scaling differences also give a sense of how things can fluctuate.
The test scales are designed to even out any difficulty differences across forms. A similar group of students might be able to average 46 out of 48 questions right on one exam and 44 out of 48 questions right on another. The raw to scaled score conversions would take this into account. This does mean that the easier the questions, the harsher the scale will be when a student does make an error. The ERW sections of this year’s PSAT were easy, so even a few errors led to significant drops. It looks like he missed 5 ERW questions and no math questions.
I don’t believe there is any provision for rescoring. His results will be available online next week, so he can look to see if his answers make sense.
Thank you so much for your reply! Do you have a sense of what the cutoff for the commended students might be? My son does not seem to care too much about it now, as it still feels like a failure to him, but I think he will appreciate it when the time comes. Thanks!
LD,
A 3-point change is highly unusual. I don’t see any chance of the Commended level moving to 215. Your son is safe at 214.
Hello Art,
With so many of our kids losing their NMSF chances due this year’s curve, I am now speculating on Commended (with admittedly not much more than novice guessing).
I looked at the info from the College Board and I see that 1410 was 97 percentile and 1390 was considered 96 percentile. Is there any point at all is looking at the 97 percentile in EBRW (which was a 710) and the 97 percentile in Math (which was a 730) and speculating that it gives a SI of 215 for the most likely Commended Score? If we apply the same to the 96 Percentile it gives us a 212.
I’m thinking this misses the mark b/c percentile scores are almost always a little different when you consider the student’s overall score. The above formula would assume that the student is equally skilled in math and EBRW when in reality one could skew way higher than the other, significantly impacting the SI. So based on that logic I would rule out 215. I also hope for the sake of some of my friends that 212 will hold.
Can you shed any perspective on where the Commended score may fall this year based on the percentiles the College Board disseminated?
Peter,
At least this speculation I can answer definitively. Percentiles are a dead end. There are multiple reasons for this, but the easiest to understand is that the percentiles aren’t actually based on this year’s exam. They are “based on the actual scores of students…in the past three school years.” What’s more, College Board means the school years prior to this one! So it is based on results from the PSATs in 2016, 2017, and 2018. So even if we tried to get around the other problems you point out (such as the assumption that students are even in performance), the percentiles simply don’t apply.
if u live in virginia and got a 1480 with a nmsqt of 220, is there a chance to make national semifinalist because i heard this year was very hard for all students and not many ppl crossed 1450
Siri,
We don’t have enough information to say for sure. We may be able to gather more information from large schools to see how widespread the situation you describes is. Students should remain positive. I think there is a good chance that we will see declines in cutoffs.
Art,
Similarly, daughter got 1460/219 in Ohio which should be plenty. However, she goes to boarding school that is also in Ohio, yet they go by Illinois cutoff which has been 221. Any chance we can change that , or that Illinois cutoff may fall to 219 this year?
Thank you!
Daniel,
The state with the highest cutoff sets the standard in a region — that will likely be IL again. My research is showing that scores have declined this year. I think it is entirely possible that a 219 will qualify.
Art,
Regardless of the difficulty of the test, I would like to believe that the smartest students make the dumbest mistakes. With last year’s SI cutoff of 223 for MA, about 4-5 mistakes were tolerated. If the cutoff is set to 223 this year, it means that essentially, the only two ways to get there is 2 mistakes, one in writing and math, or 2 mistakes in math. This holds for both the primary and alternate dates. Doesn’t this seem particularly harsh?
It does, but the models that estimate test difficulty should take this into account. I am sure that I could create a test where elite students would make virtually no mistakes. This year’s PSATs aren’t that extreme, but that’s the idea about what is going on. While I don’t think we should rule out 223 cutoffs, I would not be at all surprised to see them move to 222 (or even lower). I’d like to gather more data, though, before altering my rule of “last year’s figure is the best estimate.”
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
This may seem like an off topic question, but it is a hypothetical one I have nonetheless. With the PSAT being made astoundingly easier than ever before in the last 12 years, and with more crowding of the top spots for semifinalists, is it safe to say that this trend will continue? Will the test be only made easier that it is now, or will it be ever made harder?
Regards,
Bob
Bob,
One of the problems is that NMSC has no say in the test construction — it’s entirely up to College Board. College Board has little incentive to make a test that performs more accurately for students at the high end of the curve, because it would mean “borrowing” reliability from elsewhere along the curve. Every year about 4 million students take a PSAT. Only 60,000 will fall somewhere within the National Merit program. I don’t think College Board is trying to make the test easier so much as it is failing to produce consistent forms.
Hey, Art,
I apologize for writing this as a reply to a different comment. I’m having technical glitches and can’t get around your website.
Do you have any thoughts about the implications with regards to the National Merit Scholarship qualifying for students who go to boarding school? Students who go to boarding school out of their home state? Students who go to a New England boarding school outside of their homestate? Is there any way to analyze whether there is a proportional number of out of state NE boarding school students who achieve finalist status compared to how many achieve NM scholar? Do any? Our DD had an SI of 225 in 2018. Home state MD. BS in CT. Her scores were measured against MA. She made the finalist cut but did not get chosen as a scholar. I understand the NM scholarship is not a boatload of $ relatively speaking but she had all of the other credentials as an applicant/nominee except for going to public school in state. (She attends a college she threw an application in to last minute because she had time to submit another. Had never visited. It was not her lifelong dream school. Turns out to be a great match. You know it-your alma mater. Only sharing to illustrate she was a strong candidate).
Anyhow, I’m curious if you have spent any time looking at this. There were other instances where being a boarding school student was a handicap such as with some Senate youth program. I don’t remember the specific one but you had to go to school in the state of your permanent residence or you could not qualify. S he has a Capitol Hill internship as a college freshman so again, she clearly powers her own engine, but it was another experience that seemed unfair to me).
Thanks.
MomCat
MomCat,
NMSC does not publicly release a breakdown of scholars by state or boarding school region. The competition is certainly fierce in some areas, because boarding school students compete with other boarding school students.
Art, I got a 1450 on this year’s psat with a 690 math (-4) and a 760 reading writing. Will the harsh curve help keep the Texas cutoff at 221 (what I got) or will it be more likely to go up. Thank you
Rog,
I’ve had a chance to deep dive into score data, and it looks like we will see declines in most — if not all — cutoffs. I expect 221 to be NMSF in Texas.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
Recently I took the PSAT on the 16th, and when I got my scores back, I was surprised but glad to get an index score of 221. I live in Texas, and the cutoff score last year (and the two before it) happened to be a 221 as well. It seems like predicting the future cutoff score is impossible, but do you expect to get a potential idea on which way the cutoff score will go in the coming months? In other words, do you think it will become more apparent which way the tide will go, or do you think there’s not any possible predictor until the day it is released? Obviously it is important not to get overly delighted if indeed the tides seem to be steering towards a constant/lower cutoff year, and likewise not get overly gloomy if it seems like it will go higher, however my curiosity is still high. On a slightly different note, do you believe there are any distinct differences in what the college board looks at for its finalists and say colleges look at for its students? It seems like most factors are the same, grades, extracurriculars, strong essay, etc., however I’m interested in hearing if you believe any noticeable difference exists.
Daniel,
It’s taken me quite some time, but the research I’ve done points to lower cutoffs — probably across the board. I don’t see the TX cutoff moving to 222.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
I am an 11th grader in NJ and received a 222 SI score (1 wrong in math and reading). Although I will not know for sure whether NJ’s cutoff will go down, you keep saying that you are waiting for more information before you change your prediction. What information are you referring to, and what is the timetable for updates? Also, do you think given that NJ’s cutoff was 223 the past three years, it is less likely to go down than other states? CA and MD went down from 223 to 222 last year, but their previous cutoffs were not as high as NJ’s previous cutoffs.
Thank you very much for this resource. My dad was pushing me to try to become a semifinalist, but I didn’t care so much until I saw how close my score is. It’d suck to do so well and just miss it, and I’m really anxious to know.
Adam,
College Board releases summary data to counselors, and schools also receive data on their own students, of course. I’ve had a chance to research these sources over the last month, and they point (strongly) to lower scores. I think there is a very good chance that NJ’s cutoff will move to 222. I’ll be publishing more about this later in the week, I hope.
Hello, Mr. Sawyer,
I just had my stomach fall out. I have a homeschooled son who takes several courses at the local high school, where he also sat for his PSAT. He scored a 36 on his ACT this fall, and he got his PSAT/NMSQ scores back last week, getting a 1470, which translates as a 221 Selection Index Score. In our state, ID, that should qualify him for semi-finalist status. However, I just noticed an asterisk next to his score, which referenced this comment:
The asterisk (*) next to your Selection Index score means you do not meet entry requirements for the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program. See your responses in the “Entry Requirements” section on this page.
Under “Entry Requirements” I see this:
Information you provided on your answer sheet
High school student
YES
Year to complete high school and enroll full-time in college
after 2022
Years to be spent in grades 9-12
4
My son is graduating high school in 2021. He is applying for college next year, in 2020. However, he had in his head that since he was considering seeking a deferred admission he would not be “enrolling full-time” in college until 2022. He has totally misunderstood this eligibility question and thought he was being honest.
Can this be remedied? Again, I feel sick.
James
James,
Sorry for the seriously delayed response. All is far from lost. NMSC deals with this every year and has processes in place. You should contact them as soon as possible.
https://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/interior.aspx?sid=1758&gid=2&pgid=465
Is 225 good enough for NM semifinal in CT? Thanks.
Jeff,
225 will be good enough in every state in every year, so congratulations!
Hello,
My son got a 1420 on the October 16th PSAT (state of FL), with a selection index of 211. Do you think he will be a commended scholar?
TC,
I think the Commended Cutoff will go down this year, so a 211 should be Commended.
As I’m starting college research, I was wondering if my 223 SSI would be enough to qualify me in TX (class of 2021)? I am nervous despite the past years of a 221 trend, and don’t want to get invested in schools who give a NMF scholarship only to just miss qualifying.
Jen,
I’m confident that a 223 will qualify you in TX. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
How is the selection from Semi finalist to finalist made? My daughter has a SI of 225 so hoping she will be a SF.
Thanks.
PN,
Congratulations to your daughter! She will need a confirming score on the SAT or ACT. She will need excellent grades and the recommendation of her school. She will receive information about applying through the Finalist portal in September. She will need to write and essay. Here is information for last year’s class.
Hi Art,
Will a 221 qualify for National Merit in Texas?
AD,
Yes. The data I am seeing show that there will be no cutoff increases in any of the large states this year.
So you would expect a 222 to qualify for CA? Thanks for any insight!
SD,
Yes. I don’t see how CA could move up this year.
Hi Art,
My son scored a 218 SI in Arizona. Any chance for the NMSF cutoff to be reduced in AZ?
Thank you for all your hard work responding to questions!
Jess,
We don’t know with certainty, but I think it likely that Arizona’s cutoff will drop by at least a point.