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National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2025

By November 15, 2023National Merit, PSAT

Breaking News: We now have the results from all of the 1,490,000 juniors who took the October 2023 PSAT and have updated our estimates accordingly.

Compass Co-founder Adam Ingersoll hosted a strategy session that helped students interpret their official PSAT results and craft a smart path forward. He shared our latest insights and updated forecasts as the role of testing steadily regains significance in competitive contexts.

WATCH THE RECORDING

The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]

Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.

This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.

50,000 juniors achieved a score of 1400-1520 in the class of 2025. Compass estimates that this will result in a Commended cutoff between 208 and 210, with the most likely cutoff at 209.

The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.

The line of best fit shows that this year's total of 50,000 top scorers is likely to result in a Commended cutoff of 209.

The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.

StateClass of 2025
(Most Likely)
Class of 2025
(Est Range)
Class of 2024
(Actual)
Class of 2023
(Actual)
Class of 2022
(Actual)
Alabama212210 - 216210212212
Alaska212209 - 215209210208
Arizona217214 - 220216214218
Arkansas212208 - 215210210211
California221219 - 223221220221
Colorado217215 - 220216217217
Connecticut221219 - 222221221220
Delaware220218 - 222219218220
District of Columbia223222 - 224223223224
Florida216215 - 219216216217
Georgia219216 - 220217218219
Hawaii217215 - 220217215217
Idaho214210 - 216211215214
Illinois219217 - 221219219218
Indiana216213 - 219216214215
Iowa213210 - 216210212211
Kansas215213 - 218214214215
Kentucky214210 - 217211212212
Louisiana214211 - 217214213213
Maine214211 - 217213215211
Maryland222219 - 223221222224
Massachusetts222220 - 223222220221
Michigan217215 - 220217218217
Minnesota218215 - 220216216218
Mississippi211209 - 215209210213
Missouri215212 - 218214213214
Montana210208 - 214209207208
Nebraska213209 - 216210212210
Nevada214210 - 218211210214
New Hampshire215213 - 219215213214
New Jersey223222 - 224223223222
New Mexico211208 - 215207208210
New York220218 - 222220219220
North Carolina218215 - 220217217218
North Dakota209208 - 212207209207
Ohio216214 - 218216216215
Oklahoma211208 - 216208211210
Oregon217215 - 220216216220
Pennsylvania219217 - 221219218218
Rhode Island216213 - 219215216213
South Carolina213209 - 217209213213
South Dakota211208 - 215209212210
Tennessee216214 - 219217215215
Texas220218 - 221219219220
Utah212209 - 216209211212
Vermont213210 - 217212213211
Virginia221219 - 222219221221
Washington220218 - 222220220220
West Virginia209208 - 212207207207
Wisconsin214212 - 217213213214
Wyoming209208 - 211207207208
​U.S. Territories209208 - 210207207207
​​Studying Abroad223222 - 224223223224
​​​Commended209208 - 210207207207

[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]

The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.

However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Distribution of year-over-year cutoff changes shows that there is a roughly normal distribution, with no change occurring 30% of the time.

Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.

 

The number of states seeing cutoff changes has never dropped below 25. In some years, virtually all cutoffs have gone up or down.

Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.

What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.

The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.

How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).

Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

3,662 Comments

  • Cristen says:

    Mr. Sawyer, how are the commended students chosen? Does the NMSC choose them, and then notify the school?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Cristen,
      NMSC determines the Selection Index that identifies approximately the top 55,000 students. Those not qualifying as Semifinalists (about 16,000) are named Commended Students (about 39,000). The Selection Index cutoff this year was 212, and that is applied nationally. NMSC notifies schools.

      • PG says:

        Thank you for the explanation. My son earned a 217 in Maryland so is not a semi-finalist. It sounds like he is getting the designation of a Commended Student and would love for him to put that on his college application. So far he hasn’t heard anything and he is likely going to start submitting applications this week. Has it been published to the schools yet?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          PG,
          High schools have been mailed Commended lists, but they sometimes disappear into a black hole. I would check with your son’s counselor. You might also try calling NMSC. At 217, he can be confident that he was named a Commended Student.

  • Kate says:

    Hi, how do I get the list of names for New Jersey? Thank you.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kate,
      State lists are only available when media outlets choose to post them. Most only list area students. You could try contacting the reporter to see if they can email you the entire list. I know that some students and parents have been successful in the past.

  • Kerri says:

    Mr. Sawyer, Can you elaborate a bit on the comment you share about leaving the first college choice as “undecided” so that you do not miss on other possible scholarships from other schools? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kerri,
      The best advice is to keep the First Choice up-to-date at all times. Using Undecided is one way of preventing an unwanted match, but the better way is usually to regularly evaluate the student’s choice. It won’t matter at all until the end of Feb, as names will start being released to colleges in March. Even after that, choices can be changed. The folks at NMSC are good at helping students navigate this process. If a student forgets to change from Undecided, NMSC will usually check in to see if a choice has actually been made. If a student has a clear first choice now, no reason not to put it down. If the student is still weighing several schools, you might want to leave it as Undecided. In either case, set a reminder — set several reminders — in February to revisit the choice.

      None of this matters for students planning on attending a college that does not provide NM scholarships.

  • Anna says:

    Hi Art––

    I know this comes much later than some of the other states, but I just received the full list of New York State semifinalists. Since it doesn’t look like it’s been posted here yet, I thought I would provide a link. https://www.dropbox.com/s/e4rhd368kcodfa0/NY%20National%20Merit%20Semifinalists%202020.pdf?dl=0

    Thank you for all your hard work!

    -Anna

  • Shawn says:

    Art – thank you for all your assistance. My daughter is completing her NMSF application and I want to ensure we understand the question – List one time honors or awards received. I am a bit confused – if she is always on the honor roll every semester, should we list this once?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Shawn,
      Her academic record will speak for itself, so I don’t think listing honor roll adds anything to her application. This is a place for more specialized honors or awards.

  • Mp says:

    Morning – How are students notified if they make the ‘commended’ level? Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Mp,
      Schools are sent notifications (they were mailed out about 4 weeks ago). I would check with your college counselor or principal.

      • BandMom says:

        Checked with our school and they haven’t received info regarding commended. My son had a score of 218. Is there another way to find out? Would like to put it on college applications.

        • Art Sawyer says:

          BandMom,
          I would contact NMSC. (847) 866-5100. As long as he was otherwise eligible, we know that his 218 qualified. I would feel comfortable listing his Commended status.

  • Greg says:

    Hi M. Sawyer. Last year as a Sophomore my son scored a 1260 on the PSAT. Does this score indicate a good possibility of him earning NM semifinalist status?

    His strength is math as he took Calculus 1 and 2 at the local university last year (his high does not offer AP Calculus B/C) and earned A’s. On the PSAT math section he missed three question (unfortunately simple computational errors) and his score was a 640. Given that a perfect math score is 760 how is it that he lost 120 points with just three wrong answers? Is this accurate? He has been working hard to try to try and be a NM semifinalist (or higher) this year but is discouraged by the grading/scoring system. He feels he has to be perfect.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Greg,
      Your son took the Oct 24, 2018 PSAT which had an extremely unusual scale. The math problems were far easier than usual, so the scale was far harsher to balance things out. On the Oct 10 form, for example, 3 wrong was a 730. Putting that aside, making NMSF is challenging. The ERW score is critical, since it is doubled in calculating a Selection Index. A student scoring 750 ERW could get a 700 and still reach a 220, for example. A student scoring 720 ERW would need a perfect 760 M to reach the same level. Those scores represent significant improvement from your son’s sophomore. NMSF is not out of the question, but it will require him hitting all of his marks.

  • Kevin says:

    Hi Art,
    My 11th grader recently prepped for the Sept ACT and did quite well (99 percentile) but she just ran out of time to look at any SAT/PSAT materials before yesterday’s test.

    Any chance her ACT prep correlates enough with the PSAT to have given her an edge, or did we drop the ball? PSAT 10 score last year was a 1360 before any studying so she had a lot of ground to cover.

  • Grace says:

    Hi Mr. Sawyer, my son and a few other fellow students in his school made NM semifinalist. Today from the school newsletter, I saw one of them made to the finalist. We have not heard any status about my son. Do you know if the selection has been completed? Thanks.

  • Deb says:

    Hi Mr. Swayer, does NMSC consider ACT scores for selecting Semi-Finalists. My 11th grader is giving ACT instead of SAT

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Deb,
      Semifinalists are chosen entirely based on junior year PSAT score, which was administered last month. For students qualifying as Semifinalists, NMSC does consider ACT scores when evaluating students for Finalist status.

  • D Haus says:

    So, I know it’s a little “off topic”, but how can one get some historic information? Looking for data from 1989-90. State cut offs and Commended info. Also seeking info for the Achievement (African American) and Latino National Merit competitions from that year, if possible….

    • Art Sawyer says:

      D,
      I do not know of any source for that information. NMSC does not publicly release cutoffs, and I don’t know of anyone who was able to collect them going back that far. The NHRP is run by College Board, which has also not released historical data.

  • Irene says:

    Oct 16th PSAT curve was brutal. Any more than one wrong in each section put you below a 220 Selection Index. I’d love your best guess on Commended Cutoff for next year based on historic movement. Thanks.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Irene,
      It’s frustrating the College Board has done this again. Do you have a source on the curve this year? I haven’t yet seen the public release. It’s very difficult to extrapolate from a curve to the impact on SI. I’ll be taking a look at as much release data as possible over the coming days and weeks to update estimates. Thanks.

      • Nervous says:

        Hi Art,
        I saw someone on another site say that bc the curve was harsh, that suggests that kids scored higher nationally and the Commended Score may likely go to 214. I’m hoping that’s wrong since what the highest scoring kids did isn’t necessarily representative of what *most* kids did, correct?

        On another site people contended that with a harsh curve, Selection Indexes would in fact go *down.* What has been your experience?

        Is there reason to hope that 214 is too high for Commended since it’s also used as the NMF confirming score? Thanks as always for your valued insight!

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Nervous,
          To quote the Hollywood screenwriter William Goldman, “Nobody knows anything.”

          We can’t discern what will happen based only on the scales. We certainly can’t assume that it points to higher scores, overall. I think that commenter is making some faulty assumptions. It is entirely possible, of course, that the Commended cutoff does move up, but the scale doesn’t tell us that. I hope to find out more about how many students scored in the 700-800 ranges in ERW and Math. That would be a better predictor of the Commended level (less useful for higher cutoffs).

          • Still Nervous says:

            Art,
            Thanks for important insight. I’m *very* curious to know whether you think Commended 214 is unlikely if the Commended/confirming score this year was 212.

            I would love to think 214 is too high to be expected of the NMSF to achieve for confirming scores in the lower cutoff states but maybe that’s wishful thinking from a parent with a kid sitting at 213. :-/

          • Art Sawyer says:

            Nervous,
            I don’t think it’s wishful thinking to expect the cutoff to come in below 214, but I don’t think we are going to know enough to completely rule it out before we get word in April. Two point movements upward are uncommon, but not unprecedented.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      I see they are now posted. I know how my day is being spent…

      • Theresa says:

        Related to Irene’s question, how does a curve like this typically affect the state cutoff scores — or does it? Thank you for sharing your wisdom every year!

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Theresa,
          There isn’t usually a discernible connection. In a perfect world, the scale has no impact. Easier questions = harsher scale. Harder questions = easier scale. Everything should be in balance. The reality is not so clean when we are talking about the edge cases of National Merit. There is little room for error. For example, 1 wrong Reading question (and perfect Writing) dropped a student from 760 ERW to 740. That’s a drop of 4 points on the Selection Index. So doesn’t that mean cutoffs are likely to go down? It’s not that simple, since the easier makeup of this year’s Reading also means that it was easier for students to obtain a perfect score. Bright side: Easier to reach a 760. Dark side: A bigger drop with a single error.

          • Ankit says:

            Do you have any idea of any estimate of how many perfect scores there are in any given year? Even just a ballpark idea. I’m not going to quote you on anything, I’m just curious.

          • Art Sawyer says:

            Ankit,
            There is no data released on this, but my back-of-the-envelope would be about 1,500 – 2,000 students or around 0.1% of testers.

      • Saitej says:

        Are you gonna post the new predicted cutoffs for the class of 2012? This new curve was harsh and will it be generally lower than previous years?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Saitej,
          I’m trying to gather as much information as possible and will have something up by next week. The harsh curve does not necessarily mean that cutoffs will be lower. The easier tests would also mean that students performed better — in terms of raw points.

          • Neon F says:

            Hello, Art, I got a score of 211 and I’m freaking out that I missed the commended cutoff of 2012 from last year. However, as stated previously by many, the score curve for this year was one of the worst ever so I was wondering what my chances would be of being commended. My national percentile based on my composite score was 97 as it was 1420. People who got 1440s and 1450s where in the 98th percentile if that helps. Thank you.

          • Art Sawyer says:

            Neon,
            There is certainly a possibility of the Commended level moving down to 211. The only thing I know for sure, though, is that percentiles won’t tell us whether that is true or not. The percentiles are calculated from results on the 2016, 2017, and 2018 exams. They don’t tell us anything about the distribution of scores this year. Realistically, the Commended level is going to be in the 210-214 range. Our ability to pin it down more specifically is very much limited by the amount of data supplied by College Board. We won’t know anything for sure until April. Which won’t, of course, stop me and you and many others from speculating.

          • Neon F says:

            Hey Art, the official college board scores came out and my 1420 classified as the 99th percentile can you help me make a sense out of that info since a week ago it was the unofficaly 97th percentile.

          • Art Sawyer says:

            Neon,
            On the printed score report, College Board uses the Nationally Representative Sample percentile — in other words, an estimate of your percentile if every junior in the U.S. took the PSAT. The 97th percentile you saw is the User percentile and includes only students who took the PSAT from 2016 – 2018. That group is filled with more college-bound students, so the percentiles are lower. I find it the more accurate number, and feel that it is misleading for College Board to emphasize the fake number.

      • FL parent says:

        Now that you have had a couple of days to dissect the information, any initial thoughts on the Oct 16th vs the Oct 30th PSAT test? Which curve will be more brutal for the kids who took each one?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          FL,
          One of the things that I hated about last year’s Oct 24th form was that it reeked of unfairness. Yes, it was an easier form, but it was so outside the norm that the scale couldn’t possibly deal with the difference in an accurate manner. The difference between 4 wrong on the Oct 10 form (720) and 4 wrong on the Oct 24 form (620) was 100 points. The difference this year is 10 points.

          Whatever complaints students might have about this year’s set of exams, they are in it together. There is little difference between the two forms — probably less than usual. The Reading test was a bit easier on the 10/16 form (harsher scale), but the Writing was a bit easier on the 10/30 form. I looked at the various combinations of -1, -2, and -3 for ERW, and the scores are almost identical. The Math exams were quite similar if we are to believe the scales. There is basically a 10 point difference between -1, -2, -3, and -4. That’s a typical adjustment based on test difficulty.

          It’s hard to know what impact this year’s scales will have compared to last year, but I do think the two dates are comparable. It’s unfortunate that NMSF cutoffs in the most competitive states can mean that things boil down to luck on 1 or 2 problems (or at least the careless errors or brain freezes that we often call “bad luck”).

          I’ll be writing this up more extensively for the post. [And showing my work so that readers can point out any mistakes!]

  • LD says:

    My son scored a 1510 on the College Board’s PSAT Practice Exam 2 that he took the week before the 10/16 PSAT, and his lowest verbal score on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exams 1-4 was 720 (got 740, 720, 730 and 760 on the verbal sections). His guidance counselor told him his Oct 16 scores today: 760 math, but 690 verbal (don’t know how he was unable to break 700). His index score is 214. My son is so devastated by this score, as he was quite confident he would meet the National Merit cutoff. I don’t know how to explain this to him. To make matters worse, he plans to take the SAT (first time) this Saturday on 12/07. I think his confidence is completely shaken and he feels his upcoming SAT will not go well even though he earned the following scores on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exams 5, 8, 9 and 10: 1560 (790V, 770M), 1520 (750V, 770M), 1570 (770V, 800M), and 1550 (760V, 790M). He is hoping to score 1550 this Saturday. Are the practice exams put out by the College Board poor predictors of actual test day scores?

    Interestingly, on the College Board’s SAT Practice Exam 5, he made 2 verbal errors and 2 math errors with a score of 1560 (790V, 770M). On SAT Practice Exam 10, he made 3 verbal errors and 2 math errors (just one more verbal error), but his score dropped to 1520 (a 40-point decline for 1 more error). Did something like this happen with this PSAT?

    My son asked if an error might have been made and if it might be worthwhile to request his test get rescored – is that advisable?

    I’ve never posted anything online before, but it breaks my heart to see my son so crushed today, and I am desperately searching for some guidance (and some encouragement for him as he heads into his SAT this Saturday). Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      LD,
      The most important thing, at this point, is to maintain a positive outlook for the SAT. I think your son’s confidence will come back, and it sounds like the 690 was just an anomaly. Practice tests 1-4 are prototypes that were never used in the wild. Practice tests 5-10 are released exams, so they accurately reflect SAT content. The scaling differences also give a sense of how things can fluctuate.

      The test scales are designed to even out any difficulty differences across forms. A similar group of students might be able to average 46 out of 48 questions right on one exam and 44 out of 48 questions right on another. The raw to scaled score conversions would take this into account. This does mean that the easier the questions, the harsher the scale will be when a student does make an error. The ERW sections of this year’s PSAT were easy, so even a few errors led to significant drops. It looks like he missed 5 ERW questions and no math questions.

      I don’t believe there is any provision for rescoring. His results will be available online next week, so he can look to see if his answers make sense.

      • LD says:

        Thank you so much for your reply! Do you have a sense of what the cutoff for the commended students might be? My son does not seem to care too much about it now, as it still feels like a failure to him, but I think he will appreciate it when the time comes. Thanks!

    • Peter says:

      Hello Art,
      With so many of our kids losing their NMSF chances due this year’s curve, I am now speculating on Commended (with admittedly not much more than novice guessing).
      I looked at the info from the College Board and I see that 1410 was 97 percentile and 1390 was considered 96 percentile. Is there any point at all is looking at the 97 percentile in EBRW (which was a 710) and the 97 percentile in Math (which was a 730) and speculating that it gives a SI of 215 for the most likely Commended Score? If we apply the same to the 96 Percentile it gives us a 212.

      I’m thinking this misses the mark b/c percentile scores are almost always a little different when you consider the student’s overall score. The above formula would assume that the student is equally skilled in math and EBRW when in reality one could skew way higher than the other, significantly impacting the SI. So based on that logic I would rule out 215. I also hope for the sake of some of my friends that 212 will hold.

      Can you shed any perspective on where the Commended score may fall this year based on the percentiles the College Board disseminated?

      • Art Sawyer says:

        Peter,
        At least this speculation I can answer definitively. Percentiles are a dead end. There are multiple reasons for this, but the easiest to understand is that the percentiles aren’t actually based on this year’s exam. They are “based on the actual scores of students…in the past three school years.” What’s more, College Board means the school years prior to this one! So it is based on results from the PSATs in 2016, 2017, and 2018. So even if we tried to get around the other problems you point out (such as the assumption that students are even in performance), the percentiles simply don’t apply.

  • siri says:

    if u live in virginia and got a 1480 with a nmsqt of 220, is there a chance to make national semifinalist because i heard this year was very hard for all students and not many ppl crossed 1450

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Siri,
      We don’t have enough information to say for sure. We may be able to gather more information from large schools to see how widespread the situation you describes is. Students should remain positive. I think there is a good chance that we will see declines in cutoffs.

      • Daniel says:

        Art,
        Similarly, daughter got 1460/219 in Ohio which should be plenty. However, she goes to boarding school that is also in Ohio, yet they go by Illinois cutoff which has been 221. Any chance we can change that , or that Illinois cutoff may fall to 219 this year?

        Thank you!

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Daniel,
          The state with the highest cutoff sets the standard in a region — that will likely be IL again. My research is showing that scores have declined this year. I think it is entirely possible that a 219 will qualify.

  • FriendlyDreams says:

    Art,

    Regardless of the difficulty of the test, I would like to believe that the smartest students make the dumbest mistakes. With last year’s SI cutoff of 223 for MA, about 4-5 mistakes were tolerated. If the cutoff is set to 223 this year, it means that essentially, the only two ways to get there is 2 mistakes, one in writing and math, or 2 mistakes in math. This holds for both the primary and alternate dates. Doesn’t this seem particularly harsh?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      It does, but the models that estimate test difficulty should take this into account. I am sure that I could create a test where elite students would make virtually no mistakes. This year’s PSATs aren’t that extreme, but that’s the idea about what is going on. While I don’t think we should rule out 223 cutoffs, I would not be at all surprised to see them move to 222 (or even lower). I’d like to gather more data, though, before altering my rule of “last year’s figure is the best estimate.”

  • Bob says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,

    This may seem like an off topic question, but it is a hypothetical one I have nonetheless. With the PSAT being made astoundingly easier than ever before in the last 12 years, and with more crowding of the top spots for semifinalists, is it safe to say that this trend will continue? Will the test be only made easier that it is now, or will it be ever made harder?

    Regards,
    Bob

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Bob,
      One of the problems is that NMSC has no say in the test construction — it’s entirely up to College Board. College Board has little incentive to make a test that performs more accurately for students at the high end of the curve, because it would mean “borrowing” reliability from elsewhere along the curve. Every year about 4 million students take a PSAT. Only 60,000 will fall somewhere within the National Merit program. I don’t think College Board is trying to make the test easier so much as it is failing to produce consistent forms.

      • MomCat says:

        Hey, Art,

        I apologize for writing this as a reply to a different comment. I’m having technical glitches and can’t get around your website.

        Do you have any thoughts about the implications with regards to the National Merit Scholarship qualifying for students who go to boarding school? Students who go to boarding school out of their home state? Students who go to a New England boarding school outside of their homestate? Is there any way to analyze whether there is a proportional number of out of state NE boarding school students who achieve finalist status compared to how many achieve NM scholar? Do any? Our DD had an SI of 225 in 2018. Home state MD. BS in CT. Her scores were measured against MA. She made the finalist cut but did not get chosen as a scholar. I understand the NM scholarship is not a boatload of $ relatively speaking but she had all of the other credentials as an applicant/nominee except for going to public school in state. (She attends a college she threw an application in to last minute because she had time to submit another. Had never visited. It was not her lifelong dream school. Turns out to be a great match. You know it-your alma mater. Only sharing to illustrate she was a strong candidate).

        Anyhow, I’m curious if you have spent any time looking at this. There were other instances where being a boarding school student was a handicap such as with some Senate youth program. I don’t remember the specific one but you had to go to school in the state of your permanent residence or you could not qualify. S he has a Capitol Hill internship as a college freshman so again, she clearly powers her own engine, but it was another experience that seemed unfair to me).

        Thanks.

        MomCat

        • Art Sawyer says:

          MomCat,
          NMSC does not publicly release a breakdown of scholars by state or boarding school region. The competition is certainly fierce in some areas, because boarding school students compete with other boarding school students.

  • Rog says:

    Art, I got a 1450 on this year’s psat with a 690 math (-4) and a 760 reading writing. Will the harsh curve help keep the Texas cutoff at 221 (what I got) or will it be more likely to go up. Thank you

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Rog,
      I’ve had a chance to deep dive into score data, and it looks like we will see declines in most — if not all — cutoffs. I expect 221 to be NMSF in Texas.

  • Daniel says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,
    Recently I took the PSAT on the 16th, and when I got my scores back, I was surprised but glad to get an index score of 221. I live in Texas, and the cutoff score last year (and the two before it) happened to be a 221 as well. It seems like predicting the future cutoff score is impossible, but do you expect to get a potential idea on which way the cutoff score will go in the coming months? In other words, do you think it will become more apparent which way the tide will go, or do you think there’s not any possible predictor until the day it is released? Obviously it is important not to get overly delighted if indeed the tides seem to be steering towards a constant/lower cutoff year, and likewise not get overly gloomy if it seems like it will go higher, however my curiosity is still high. On a slightly different note, do you believe there are any distinct differences in what the college board looks at for its finalists and say colleges look at for its students? It seems like most factors are the same, grades, extracurriculars, strong essay, etc., however I’m interested in hearing if you believe any noticeable difference exists.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Daniel,
      It’s taken me quite some time, but the research I’ve done points to lower cutoffs — probably across the board. I don’t see the TX cutoff moving to 222.

  • Adam says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,

    I am an 11th grader in NJ and received a 222 SI score (1 wrong in math and reading). Although I will not know for sure whether NJ’s cutoff will go down, you keep saying that you are waiting for more information before you change your prediction. What information are you referring to, and what is the timetable for updates? Also, do you think given that NJ’s cutoff was 223 the past three years, it is less likely to go down than other states? CA and MD went down from 223 to 222 last year, but their previous cutoffs were not as high as NJ’s previous cutoffs.
    Thank you very much for this resource. My dad was pushing me to try to become a semifinalist, but I didn’t care so much until I saw how close my score is. It’d suck to do so well and just miss it, and I’m really anxious to know.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Adam,
      College Board releases summary data to counselors, and schools also receive data on their own students, of course. I’ve had a chance to research these sources over the last month, and they point (strongly) to lower scores. I think there is a very good chance that NJ’s cutoff will move to 222. I’ll be publishing more about this later in the week, I hope.

  • James says:

    Hello, Mr. Sawyer,

    I just had my stomach fall out. I have a homeschooled son who takes several courses at the local high school, where he also sat for his PSAT. He scored a 36 on his ACT this fall, and he got his PSAT/NMSQ scores back last week, getting a 1470, which translates as a 221 Selection Index Score. In our state, ID, that should qualify him for semi-finalist status. However, I just noticed an asterisk next to his score, which referenced this comment:

    The asterisk (*) next to your Selection Index score means you do not meet entry requirements for the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program. See your responses in the “Entry Requirements” section on this page.

    Under “Entry Requirements” I see this:

    Information you provided on your answer sheet

    High school student
    YES

    Year to complete high school and enroll full-time in college
    after 2022

    Years to be spent in grades 9-12
    4

    My son is graduating high school in 2021. He is applying for college next year, in 2020. However, he had in his head that since he was considering seeking a deferred admission he would not be “enrolling full-time” in college until 2022. He has totally misunderstood this eligibility question and thought he was being honest.

    Can this be remedied? Again, I feel sick.

    James

  • Jeff says:

    Is 225 good enough for NM semifinal in CT? Thanks.

  • Jen says:

    As I’m starting college research, I was wondering if my 223 SSI would be enough to qualify me in TX (class of 2021)? I am nervous despite the past years of a 221 trend, and don’t want to get invested in schools who give a NMF scholarship only to just miss qualifying.

  • PN says:

    Hi Art,
    How is the selection from Semi finalist to finalist made? My daughter has a SI of 225 so hoping she will be a SF.

    Thanks.

  • AD says:

    Hi Art,

    Will a 221 qualify for National Merit in Texas?

  • Jess says:

    Hi Art,

    My son scored a 218 SI in Arizona. Any chance for the NMSF cutoff to be reduced in AZ?

    Thank you for all your hard work responding to questions!

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