Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
215 in ID. How are my chances?
Logan,
It may not be a slam dunk, but your chances are very good.
Hey Art,
I got a 221 in California, think I will qualify to be a semifinalist?
Trent,
I think 221 will qualify this year. The data I’ve seen point to at least a 1 point decline. However, I can’t quite put it in the “sure thing” category.
Hi Mr. Sawyer – I have a 218 in Pennsylvania. What do you think are my chances to qualify for semi-finalist? Thanks!
Theresa,
I expect my “most likely” estimates to be about 60/40 odds, and you’re on the 60 side, of course. That still means a long wait until September.
Hi Art,
I got a 222 in Massachusetts. At first I thought I would be a point off, but reading this has got my hopes higher. Thoughts?
Thanks!
Dave,
I think you’re right to raise your hopes. I think a 223 cutoff is unlikely this year.
My high school junior child only missed one question in the Writing section of the 10/30 test and that question was deemed a “hard” question. The index score was 36. It doesn’t seem right that they would deduct two points for missing one hard question. Any thoughts?
Steve,
It’s not great test construction on the part of College Board (I’m being polite), but that doesn’t mean that the drop is “wrong.” It means the test was too easy overall. That makes even a single error very expensive. The difficulty of the question your daughter missed doesn’t play a role.
Hi,
Do you think a 222 in Arizona will make Semi-Finalist?
Thanks
Justin,
With much room to spare. Congratulations!
Art, My daughter has a 217 in Louisiana. She missed a few really easy Math questions, but she already has lots of upper level college Math. How important does the actual PSAT score matter one you make the semi-finalist cutoff for Finalist status and scholarships?
CeeCee,
I’m confident that your daughter will make Semifinalist this year. Congratulations! In order to qualify as a Finalist, she’ll need to achieve a “qualifying score” on the ACT or SAT (this shouldn’t be that hard for her), have great grades, and stay on the good side of the school administration. She’ll receive more detailed in September about the Finalist application. Most college-sponsored scholarships depend only on achieving Finalist status. The NMSC-sponsored scholarships are more competitive, but also less valuable than many of the college awards.
Hi Art,
My son got a 216 on the 2021 PSAT in Ohio. Do you think he has a good chance?
Bill,
I’d put most of my “most likely” estimates as 60/40. Still very much a toss-up, I’m afraid.
Hi Art,
My daughter in Pennsylvania has 219. Do you think she has a chance of being a semifinalist? she already gave SAT and scored 1530. Does SAT score make any difference on being a finalist?
Ty,
Your daughter just needs the PA cutoff to fall 1 point, and I think that’s likely in most states this year. That’s not a guarantee, but her chances look good. No, her SAT will matter at the Finalist stage (it’s high enough), but is not a factor when choosing Semifinalists.
Hi Art
Would there be any chance with a selection index Of 218 on Illinois ?
Three point swings are unusual in large states, but this is such an abnormal year that it is possible.
Hi Art,
Thanks for this information, it is very helpful.
My son is in NC and has a score on the PSAT of 221 which should qualify him for NMSF. He took the SAT in August 2018 and got a 1550 but are we right to understand that this score was taken too early by a month for it to count as a confirming score? He feels it is high enough and did not plan to take the SAT again. Instead, he was going to give the ACT a shot in a few weeks but we are now concerned that the test may be cancelled given the coronavirus. I guess we might have to scramble to find a testing location?
NC Stan,
As you can tell, I’ve been slow at getting back to questions. We’ve been kept busy helping students with all of the changes this spring. Your son’s April ACT was, of course cancelled. I’m concerned about June dates, as well, so he should be looking to schedule later dates. You are correct that NMSC has traditionally ruled out scores received before fall of sophomore year. He’ll have no problem getting a confirming score once the tests return.
Art,
How does all this work for home schoolers. Daughter is in FL and got a 219 PSAT index (EBR&W=730, Math=730). She has a 35 ACT score (English=38, Reading=35, Math=35). I saw that the College Board sends scores and notifications to the high school. My kids have been home schooled for the longest time. How will we receive the notifications? Is there anyone I need to contact or call… or are there special forms I need to fill out?
I sure hope you are right about FL cut off for NMS being lower this year. Such an honor will guarantee her a full ride scholarship. As she is my youngest, that will be three out of three! :o) We were overseas for the first two so they didn’t take the PSAT; so this is my first time dealing with this. My first two had to compete up front for the full ride scholarships… a much more difficult route. I am hoping my daughter gets a NMS as that will get her a full ride and save a lot of time and effort.
Thanks for any advice or guidance.
Steve,
This is a time when being a homeschooler can be a real advantage, because you are treated as the “principal” as far as NMSC is concerned. You should soon receive notification from NMSC that your daughter will be at least Commended (they may not word it that way, but it’s what the letter means). If you don’t receive something in the next 2 weeks, I would give NMSC a call. This also means that you’ll find out your daughter’s Semifinalist status earlier than most (depending on the mail in late August), because the notification will come right to you.
It is hard for me to imagine Florida’s cutoff going up this year. I know how much it can mean to someone like your daughter, so I will keep thinking good thoughts. I’d also be grateful if you would write back when you receive any notices. It can be a real help for other students. Thank you!
Art,
Thank you so much for all of your work on this. I’m wondering if the decline in high scores is partly related to social media. My older son graduated in 2018, and although there was some technology in his elementary/middle school, it was minimal. My younger son will graduate in 2021, and his peers have been glued to technology since they were toddlers. I see a vast difference in the attention span and educational motivation between the two classes. Just a thought.
Jeanne
Jeanne,
That’s an interesting theory, but it’s one that would be more likely to confirmed in long-term trends. This year’s drop was abrupt and very much about College Board’s poor test construction. Then again, maybe College Board’s test makers are spending too much time on social media!
Hi Art,
I scored a 217 in Michigan. Do you think I have a good chance to become a semifinalist?
PLS,
I think your 217 puts you in a good position. I’d rate my most likely’s at about 60/40.
Hi Art,
When will you know more about the official cutoffs? Does NM release more information before they begin notifying semi finalists in the fall?
Thanks!
AD,
NMSC does not officially release any information until notifying schools in the fall. It usually contacts schools in April to get more information on students who it has identified as above the Commended mark (although it does not come out and say this). Given the number of school closures, I don’t know how smoothly this process will go or whether or not we will get word of the Commended cutoff. Again, it is not officially released.
Hello Art,
I hope you and your family are taking care during this time. My daughter scored a 217 in AL. From your projections she looks to have made the cut?
Gloria,
Congratulations, your daughter will make Semifinalist! We are staying safe, at home, and soaped up, thank you. Stay well!
College Board changed the NHRP program to CBRP, adding African Americans, Indigenous, and students from rural or small towns. Is it likely that the rural small town category would have a significant effect on cutoffs compared to last year’s NHRP cutoffs? CBRP is sending out emails today, apparently.
It looks like I guessed correctly. The rural and small town category caused a giant leap in cutoffs (using the terms “rural” and “small town” loosely, as some large suburban high schools are on the list, linked at College Board). Conveniently papers over the drop in PSAT scores.
No need to post, or even post the above comments either, but just FYI because you probably want to know about cutoffs: per email from CBRP, “The College Board Hispanic cutoff score for Colorado is 1340.” For the past two years, it was around 1280.
(Nevermind that my kid’s score dropped on this year’s PSAT compared to sophomore year. Six weeks later, on the Dec SAT, he scored 180 points higher and his sibling scored 320 points higher compared to Oct PSAT. Thank goodness that is what matters! Sorry if I was a little upset yesterday)
Don’t worry, Bonnie, I didn’t interpret it that way at all. I hope you don’t mind that I am going to go ahead and post this, since it can be valuable to others.
Wow! Congratulations to your student on the SAT score!
Bonnie,
Thank you for the update. The changes in definitions and scores for what was once the NHRP have certainly surprised many people. It’s unfortunate that College Board couldn’t have provided more information up front. For example, it could have easily computed cutoffs based on prior years’ data. I’ve been very slow to incorporate new information this year because (a) Compass has been busy helping students deal with a crazy testing environments and (b) I just haven’t received enough data to make accurate comments.
I really appreciate when readers like you can contribute. Thank you!
Thanks again, Bonnie. Our NHRP page needs a complete overhaul due to the changes, but College Board has been slow in leaking out details.
Mr.Sawyer,
My daughter received an email inviting her to apply for one of the College Board National Recognition Programs (CBRP). I am exicted for her, but not really sure what to expect. I understand that this is a new program especially for schools designated as “Rural” based on information from the National Center for Education Statistics. Following is a part of the email she received.
“Congratulations! You scored in the top 2.5% on the PSAT/NMSQT among high school junior test-takers in your region who identify as one or more of the following: African American, Hispanic American or Latinx, Indigenous, or attend school in a rural area or are from a small town. As a result of your test performance, College Board is pleased to invite you to participate in the College Board National Recognition Programs (CBRP).
In order to be considered, please complete a brief application and provide supporting verification online at “removed link”. Your invitation number needed to complete the online application is XXXXXX. You have been invited to apply to the following: Rural/Small town”
Sam
Sam,
Congratulations to your daughter, and thank you for giving the specific language used in the letter! The College Board’s recognition programs have traditionally been about just that — recognition. They are not directly linked to scholarships. If your daughter meets the other criteria as part of the application, she will be officially recognized. It will be up to colleges to decide whether or not to attach any merit scholarships to the designation.
Hi Art,
First off thanks for putting this all together. I have a 217 in Kentucky. Do you think there’s any chance at all the cutoff grows higher or should I feel safe?
Lukas,
I think you are 99.9% safe. Given what we’ve seen, I can only imagine a higher cutoff happening in a state smaller than Kentucky.
Hi, Mr. Sawyer. I got a 212 alternate SAT score in Delaware. What are my chances looking like this year?
Abigail,
You will be a Commended Student. Delaware always has one of the highest Semifinalist cutoffs, but you are well above the 209 Commended level!
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
Do you think a 219 is good enough for GA to qualify for a semifinalist? I was thinking it would be a 220, but after reading this blog, I’m a little more confident.
SC,
I think 40-45 states will see drops this year because of the unusual scores. I like your chances at 219.
Any updates about how the current situation is gonna affect us? Any updates on commended or New Mexico cutoff.
AE,
There are so many ways it is going to effect us, but I imagine that you mean as it relates to National Merit. It looks like NMSC has gotten out its April letters on time (the requests it makes to schools for more information on students at or above the Commended level). The initial report is that the Commended level is 209. That doesn’t change my Most Likely for New Mexico at 212. I don’t know if, at some point, NMSC will make a decision to relax the requirement of a confirming score for Finalist. As more test dates get erased, it becomes an added burden on students.
Hi Mr. Sawyer! Thank you for all your articles and insight! My son got a 216 in Ohio, is it possible to be a semifinalist? Thanks!
Tom A,
I think it’s a little better than possible. I’d peg it at 60/40 that Ohio’s cutoff comes down 2 points.
Dear Art,
Your post and data analysis raises my hopes about my daughter’s PSAT score.
She received a 218 in Pennsylvania. Where do you think she will fall: Commended or Semi-Finalist?
Thanks for your insights!
MK,
I feel confident that Pennsylvania will see a lower cutoff, so the only chance of her missing out would be if it comes in at 219. She has better than even odds of being a Semifinalist.
Hi Art,
My daughter got a selection index score of 216 for OHIO, how confidently you think that she will be a semifinalist?
Also, I like to thank you for your valuable insights and service!
Thanks,
SM
Thank you, SM. I’ve been pegging 216 as about 60/40 for Ohio, but that’s just one man’s take. We did get confirmation of the Commended level falling to 209, so it’s just more evidence that everything will be moving lower this year.
Hi Art,
The selection score is 209 or above as per the letter I (homeschooling parent/principal) received today from NMSQT.
Sophia,
Thank you for sharing this! The “209 or above” generally means the cutoff is at 209. I am going to risk being wrong and update the post to reflect this information. Since the 209 falls where we expected, it doesn’t change things that much.