Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Mr. Sawyer, I submitted this question to you but had already submitted to the NMSC and just received their response. I thought you may be interested in confirmed timing as well as others too. Thanks for this forum to share info. Laura
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Thank you for contacting us. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) is not changing the method of notifying high schools of Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) will mail information regarding Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program to high schools on August 25, 2020. We will mail information about Commended Students in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program to high schools on September 10, 2020.
We ask that a school official watch for the mailing. Once a school official logs in as the OSA Administrator, that person will download the student letters in PDF format, which can be distributed to students electronically. ”
Thank you, Laura. It’s good to get the exact mailing date. My experience is that it’s not a quick journey from post office to school (or at least to the right person at a school). If there are any home schoolers reading these posts, please let everyone know when you receive something!
Yes, hoping it makes it into our new Principals hands promptly. My concern is that because we have had a significant change of school leadership personnel along with major school remodel construction and add that to the major challenges of new distance learning due to Covid-19, just hope it doesn’t get buried under a pile somewhere.
I just received the letter from National Merit Scholarship. My homeschooled son with index 219 is semifinalist in Illinois.
Kristina,
It’s great to hear that the mail is arriving. Congratulations to your son!
Kristina, can you post a picture of what the envelope & letter look like? We have had important mail/packages go missing at our school many times. Thought having a pic could help the mail sorter. Thanks!
Received notification envelope for my daughter in CT on Sept 1.
Laura, I don’t believe I can post an image here, but ours arrived in a large (9×12 inches) white envelope. On it there is a large neon green sticker with the words “ATTENTION: Scholarship Application Materials Enclosed,” and the lower left corner says “ATTENTION PRINCIPAL Dated Material Enclosed.” It should be easy to spot!
My son’s PSAT Index 222(AZ) and SAT (1560) from Dec 2019 (760 reading and 800 math), what are his chances of qualifying for NMSC finalist ?
Pavani,
We just received word that NMSC will not be considering SAT or ACT scores for Finalist standing. It’s not clear whether that means they will put more emphasis on grades or simply have more Finalists. NMSC does not publish any specific cutoffs on grades. Students must have “a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12.”
How likely is it that NMSC will clarify whether they will put more emphasis on grades or simply have more Finalists? My son was hoping his qualifying SAT score might help to offset the weakness in his application — some iffy grades his freshman year.
Given how few specifics NMSC has ever given about grades, I’d say that it is unlikely that there will be any clarification. Keep in mind that it would not be a significant shift. Even when SAT/ACT scores were a factor, almost 95% of Semifinalists qualified as Finalists.
Good Afternoon,
As stated in the Requirements and Instructions for Semifinalists in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program document, “Due to the global pandemic and the resulting lack of available test administrations, SAT and ACT scores will not be required or considered for Finalist standing in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program.” You can find this document posted at http://www.nationalmerit.org/resources.
————————
This is from a email exchange with NMSC, thought everyone should know! I am sure I was not the only one who was stressed.
Thank you, Abdul. That’s going to put a lot of students at ease. I’ve updated the post.
NMSC has released the Requirements and Instructions for Semifinalists. Per the PDF (link below), NMSC will announce/release the names of the semifinalists to news media on Sept. 9th. And the deadline to send completed applications is Oct. 7th.
https://nationalmerit.imodules.com/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/merit_r_i_leaflet.pdf?sessionid=31989c37-fbf3-4b5a-a16f-73e209fbabda&cc=1
~Sam
Sam,
Thank you for the link and the dates. I’ve updated the post.
Mr. Sawyer,
Could you please publish the essay prompt if/when you get a chance to see it? I am sure my daughter’s school will be informing us very late in the game. Last year they did not do it till Sept 13th and this year with all the chaos, I am sure this is not on their priority list.
Thanks,
Sam..
Yes. I will. There are no guarantees, of course, but the prompt has been unchanged for a number of years. See our FAQ.
Hello,
Assuming that a semi finalist completes all of the requirements adequately, are they guaranteed finalists? In other words, is the semi finalist to finalist process a competition or is it just a matter of completing set requirements.
Ankit,
I believe it is a matter of completing the set of requirements. However, since NMSC does not publish specific criteria on academic performance, it’s impossible to know what meeting that requirement looks like.
Art,
Our senior was just notified of NMSF status. She had a 220 selection score in Florida. In determining the 15,000 finalists, does the program weigh the selection score so that a higher score improves your chances or, once you make the cut, does the selection score get disregarded and the analysis is just GPA, essay and application? Curious especially since confirming SAT will not be considered. Thanks for all you do!
Jeremy,
In the past, the Selection Index has not played a role in Finalist selection. And since it is not mentioned in the current requirements, I can’t imagine that this will change. What we don’t know is whether there will be more Finalists or whether grades will become more important.
A technical question … How does a cutoff score become 219 (an odd number) considering the following math? Thank you.
NMSC Selection Index Score = 2 x (Reading Test + Writing and Language Test + Math Test)
Hi Satchi,
The Math Test has some scores on the half point. For example, a Reading score of 36, Writing & Language score of 38, and Math score of 35.5 would be 2 x (36 + 38 + 35.5) = 219.
Hi, your table says that 216 is the cutoff for Florida. However, I got 218 and I was commended. The cutoff is 219 this year.
Your table is wrong.
Please let me know if there is some confusion.
Ava,
I’m investigating this on my end. Is there any chance that you are at a boarding school? If so, you would likely need to meet Georgia’s score of 219. Also, did you receive notice that you were Commended or is that an assumption? I am wondering if NMSC doesn’t have your eligibility marked correctly. If that were true, it can usually be corrected. I apologize for any distress. Rest assured that I am trying to get more information.
Ava,
I did some further research. Another colleague confirmed the 216 in Florida. Boarding school cutoffs are set at the highest cutoff within a region, which is why Florida boarding schools inherit the Georgia cutoff.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, thank you so much for the quick response. It was an error from my end. Thank you
how did you know you are commended? my son should be commended as well but we have not heard anything. thanks.
Art,
We have a senior who was notified of NMSF status in Florida. Her selection score was 220, though the state cutoff was 216. Especially in light of the fact that this year’s applications will not include SAT scores, do you think a higher selection score will impact Finalist Selection, or do you think the score is irrelevant once you make Semifinalist? Thanks for all the information you provide!
Jeremy,
If NMSC was going to make that change, I’d think that it would have amended the Requirements and Instructions to mention it. There is no such mention, so I am assuming “irrelevant.”
Is there any way to see the list of all Semifinalists in Pennsylvania? No news sources have posted an article about my school district.
Tunt,
Only news media and schools receive lists. They are only published if a news site feels it is useful, and — as you’ve found — many sites only post about local students. There are three options that have worked in the past: (1) Ask your counselor or principal. They’re the only ones who can get you the official letter and Finalist portal information. (2) Contact NMSC. They’re likely overwhelmed, but they will often confirm a name after the press release date. (3) Reach out to a reporter/blogger in PA who has published local information. They should have received the full state list, and some are willing to share. Good luck in your quest.
Hi Art,
It’s 9/9 and we still haven’t heard about the semifinalist announcement for Texas, specifically Plano ISD. Neither our school counselor. My daughter got a SI=220 (score: 1480). Sorry but this waiting has been eating me up. Can you confirm with us
1) Texas cutoff for semifinalist is 219
2) Where can I find the list for semifinalist for my state?
Thanks.
Tony,
I can confirm that the cutoff is 219. I wish there were a better system for announcements. It’s up to the school, the district, or the news media to publish the list (National Merit does not), and it’s a hit-or-miss process. PISD did publish an announcement last year, but there is so much different about 2020. You’ll want to first see if you can reach the school counselor, since the counselor (or principal) is the only source for the information your daughter will need to login to her portal. NMSC may be able to confirm your daughter’s status, but it will not release any other information to you.
Art,
I was notified by my counselor that I had been selected as a National Merit semifinalist, but I have not received any communications from National Merit. Should I be worried?
AJ,
Congratulations! Nothing to worry about. National Merit does not send students anything directly at this stage. Your counselor will be getting you details and instructions for logging into the portal for Finalist applications. It’s extremely common for counselors to share the good news immediately before having a chance to get each student the information. If you haven’t heard more from the counselor by Monday, you might want to check in.
Art,
I have twins in Texas with scores of 223 and 219, so it looks like they’ll both make it. Still no official word. The difference in SI is all due to one additional question missed in the reading section. Pretty crazy how tight it is.
I am actually writing to just thank you for all the information you’ve provided this year. It’s helped me navigate the process with a much higher level of understanding. Well done.
Michael,
Congratulations x 2! Thank you for the kind words. Yes, the swings were crazy this year. It’s good to hear that both of your students made the cut.
Needless to say, this has been a chaotic year for schools; I’m sure you’ll hear soon. I’d recommend reaching out to the counselor if you haven’t heard anything by Monday. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen anyone publish the full Texas list this year.
Is there any way to see a list?
Marion,
A Redditor has compiled a great resource: https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/ipmq79/lists_of_semifinalists_by_state/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks Art,
Thank you for your great article. Your cutoff predictions/announcements are spot on for Texas. PISD has finally made their semi list public on 9/15. Not sure why all the unnecessary delay but the district went from 120 semifinalist in 2020 to 103 in 2019 – quite a drop. My daughter makes to the semi. Now time to gather all the necessary requirements for the next step – Wasting the whole week bc all the delay, LOL!
Just happy to hear that you finally got word. Congratulations to your daughter! If you have the chance to pass along the essay prompt for this year, I’d like to update my resource.
Hi! Thank you for the great information. We live in Pennsylvania and my daughter scored 217, which looks like she made the cutoff, however, when she checked again today, her school counselor told her that they haven’t heard anything from NMSC. Any advice?
Elizabeth, sorry for the delay. I’ve hope you’ve heard by now or seen this list: https://nms2021.weebly.com/uploads/5/9/8/8/59885031/21_pa_semifinalists-natlmeritprogram%5B8768%5D.pdf.
Is it a bad sign that the high school has not notified us at all? Student in CT has an index score of 224. Shouldn’t the student qualify as semifinalist? We have reached out to the counselor and administration. Who else can we ask?
Lydia,
NMSC will give you confirmation: (847) 866-5100. What they won’t give you, AFAIK, is the letter with the login credentials your student will need. But at least you’ll know that you need to keep bothering the school.
Art,
My son got his August SAT score E:710, M:800. This is his alternate test. We live in Colorado, I believe this is a SI of 218 . I think this qualified him as SF, but we didn’t hear from school yet. Is my SI calculation correct for alternate test score?
Claudia,
Your best bet is to call NMSC directly at this point and find out for sure. (847) 866-5100 Your calculation looks correct.
Hi Art,
I’m confused, isn’t semifinalist status decided by PSAT score and not the SAT score? The above person has mentioned August SAT score of E 710 and M 800. I wonder why.
KG,
I mistakenly left off another post by the parent explaining that the student’s PSAT was cancelled last October and was granted alternate entry by NMSC. This allows students to enter the competition with an SAT score. Because PSAT scores are capped at 760, the NM calculation for SAT scores is also capped at 760. So the student had an SI equivalent to 71×2 + 76 = 218.
Just hearing about the no questions asked alternate entry plan. It still seems unfair to the PSAT test takers. It’s mentioned in the article that students may take multiple SATs and the best score will be used. Also is this calculation not adjusting the 710? Since the SAT gives students the opportunity to earn up to 800 points, shouldn’t the 710 be adjusted as well? I see the 800 being adjusted to 760. Am I missing something?
Sally,
One way to think about it is that the existence of the Alternate Entry program does not make it any harder for a PSAT student to qualify (as long as NMSC sticks with existing rules). In fact, because of the likelihood of lower qualifying scores this year, PSAT takers may have an easier time compared to previous years. To your point, though, it may be even easier for those students taking the SAT. Without overhauling the entire program, I’m not sure how NMSC should deal with things. It could open up the SAT to any student as a means of qualifying, but then it would need to find a way of using those scores to set cutoffs. That could lead to even bigger problems and greater equity issues.
Vertical scales always make me think of high jumps. Two competitors are using two different bars and each clears 5′. If only one of the bars goes to 6′, then there is no meaningful way of judging the competitors over 5′. In this analogy, the PSAT and SAT both go to 5′ (a 760). Only the SAT goes to 6′, so any score above 760 is treated as a 760. The 710 would be like a jump at 4′ 6″, because each test measures it in the same way. That’s why a 710 is not adjusted.
I am a current National Merit Scholar who took the alternate route and can help you if need be 🙂
Hi Kellen,
My son took the SAT on August 29, NMSC has his score (as they told me) but, they don’t know how long it will take to notify schools because there is only one person in charge of this 🙁 My son is applying for colleges that give good aid to NMSF, but he still needs to wait until confirmation.
When did you take the alternate test and how long did you wait for your school to notify you?
Hi,
Any idea when they will notify the commended scholars? My son got a 211 but we have not heard a word. Thanks.
Tammy,
NMSC sends Commended notifications to schools immediately after the Semifinalist names go public. Those should be showing up to schools by now.
Thanks. Is there a list of commended scholars?
No, NMSC does not put out a full list of Commended scholars. Schools will sometimes publish the names.
Thanks!
Hello Mr. Sawyer:
Do you think I could become a semifinalist if I got Math: 800 and Reading: 750 on my SAT? I live in California.
April,
I do. Unless NMSC changes the qualifying rules, I can’t imagine a 226 Selection Index not make the cutoff.
What is the source for the number of 1400-1520 students? 26,103 looks too precise to be an estimate but I can’t find a CB publication with that data.
Steve,
It is not an estimate.
Wondering if you can update the projected January numbers of test scorers above 1400 now that the scores are out.
Thanks- great article.
Mom,
I hope to get more information on the January administration, but I don’t have distributions yet. We still won’t have state numbers, so I doubt that things will be so skewed in January that it will change my take.
Thank you for the great article, Art! This is very informative.
Are the semifinalist through alternate entry announced later than the ones through regular PSAT?
Because it says “submit your SAT score by Oct 15” on NMSC website, but cutoff and semifinalists are announced in late August or early September. So I am guessing they will select semifinalists through alternate entry after selecting semifinalist through regular PSAT. Am I right?
Liz,
That’s a great question, and I’m not 100% confident in my answer. I believe if the student gets scores in early enough that they are announced with the regular release in September. Normally, students at or above the Commended level based on the PSAT are pre-vetted by high schools in April (name matches, junior, attends school, etc.). I’m not sure if NMSC is able to take care of that over the summer. The other thing that doesn’t make sense is that I believe Oct 15 is after the Finalist application is due. Presumably they make accommodations for that. NMSC tends to be responsive. If you are in the Alternate Entry group and are concerned, I would give them a call. Please pass along anything that you find.
Hello. I most likely will not be able to take the PSAT tomorrow. Considering that administration of the SAT in California is unlikely and that I wasn’t aware that I wouldn’t be able to take the PSAT, do you have any advice?
Missing,
I wouldn’t give up hope for the SAT. You can take the test as late as June. Let’s hope CA is close to normal by that point. I’d recommend signing up for at least May or June, because those sites will fill up quickly if March is canceled. And remember to fill out the Alternate Entry application now. Good luck!
Hello, Mr. Sawyer!
Do you have confidence in saying that it is likely that I will be commended if I got a 690 on both Math and EBRW subscores of my PSAT (a total score of 1380 and a SI of 207)?
John,
My best guess is that the Commended level will drop, but we don’t even know the results from the January exam yet. I think your odds are a little better than 50-50.
Hello,
I used alternate entry, and my score is 222. I’m in Washington State – what are my chances of moving to Semifinalists? If the cutoff is exactly 222, will I still move on to the semifinalist stage?
Ivan,
If the cutoff is exactly 222, you would qualify. I don’t think we will see Washington at 223 this year.