*** We are crowdsourcing all of the Semifinalist cutoffs. If you receive word, please post in the Comments. ***
September 2: Idaho is now listed as <= 211 based on a new report (earlier listed as = 213). Illinois is confirmed at 218. Colorado added at <= 218. Report from a DC-area forum that a student qualified in VA with a 221. Georgia student qualified with a 217. A Washington student reported falling short with a 220. A Maryland student made Semifinalist with a 222, but 220 did not qualify. Kansas is <= 219. We now know that a 214 qualified in Missouri and a 216 qualified in South Carolina. A 220 qualified in Connecticut, as did a 222 in Massachusetts. Minnesota is now <= 215.
Alabama = 210
Arizona <= 215
Arkansas <= 212
California = 220
Colorado <= 218
Connecticut <= 220
Delaware <= 220
Florida = 216
Georgia <= 217
Idaho <= 211
Illinois = 218
Indiana <= 215 and >= 212
Iowa <= 213 and >= 210
Kansas <= 219
Kentucky <= 216
Louisiana <= 211
Maine <= 214
Maryland 221 or 222
Massachusetts <= 222
Michigan 215 or 216
Minnesota <= 215
Mississippi = 211 via Reddit (reports still welcome)
Missouri 213 or 214
Nebraska <= 217
Nevada = 211
New Jersey <= 224
New Mexico <= 209
New York = 220
Ohio = 216
Oklahoma = 210
Pennsylvania = 219
South Carolina <= 216
Tennessee = 214
Texas = 219
Virginia >= 219 and <= 221
Washington 221 or 222
Wisconsin 211 or 212
Key:
State <= 215 — A student at 215 qualified, but we don’t yet know the lowest qualifying score.
State >= 211 — A student at 210 did not qualify, so we know that the cutoff is higher.
State >=212 and <=214 — The qualifying score ranges from 212 to 214.
State = 213 — The combination of reports means that the qualifying score has been confirmed.
September 1: Pennsylvania’s cutoff is 219. New York is confirmed at 220. Michigan has been narrowed down to 215 or 216. Maryland is <= 223. Kentucky and Minnesota students have reported qualifying at 216. Iowa’s cutoff is between 210 and 213. Idaho added at <= 213.
August 31: Nevada’s cutoff is 211. Ohio’s cutoff is confirmed at 216; I’m still working on confirmation that it did not fall to 215. Students at 216 or above can now rest easy. Reports added for Connecticut and Nebraska.
The information for the states listed immediately below are based on the most recent reporting. Drops in both the confirmed and unconfirmed cutoffs have demonstrated the impact of the lower Reading & Writing scores that Compass flagged last November. We now expect most state cutoffs will fall 2 to 3 points, producing results similar to those in the classes of 2023 and 2024, when the Commended cutoff was only 207. In order to give guidance to students in states where reports are sparse or absent, Compass has updated its estimates in the table further down this page. The “Most Likely” figures in that table are estimates. We expect 45-50 states will fall within the updated projected ranges.
August 29 and 30: Some additional reports have allowed us to narrow things down in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia. We now know that New Mexico is <= 209.
August 28: Maine and Indiana have been narrowed down. Georgia updated to <= 218. That’s a big one for many students. Reports from Alabama, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina added. Alabama now confirmed at 210. A student with a 218 did not qualify in Pennsylvania. Reports from Indiana indicate a NMSF level of between 212 and 215. Maine is no higher than 214. Fixed my mistake on Michigan (remains <=218). Missouri has now dropped to <= 215.
August 27: Oklahoma confirmed at 210. Conflicting information on Ohio; moving it back to <=218 until more reports come in. Reports added from Alabama, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I received credible — but not perfect — information that a 215 did not qualify in Ohio. I’m going to move it back to the more certain <= 218. I’ve seen sufficient posts on 218 not qualifying in Texas that I am moving it to Texas = 219. Mixed information from Virginia, but the most credible report is that a 222 did qualify. Wisconsin has now moved to <= 212, which means the cutoff will be at a record low.
August 26: California drops to 220, Ohio to 215 (now in doubt), and Mississippi to 211. Reports added from Texas, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Georgia, and Washington.
The largest state in the country is now confirmed at 220, the lowest it has been since the class of 2023. Students and parents have reported lower class of 2027 cutoffs for Ohio and Mississippi. I always appreciate additional reports from students who qualify (or miss out).
August 25: Florida confirmed at 216. Tennessee record low of 214. Reports from Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Oklahoma.
Florida’s cutoff fell to 216, which is great news for students in large states and hoping for lower cutoffs. I received a report of two Oklahoma students qualifying at 210. This doesn’t confirm the final cutoff — it could be lower — but it is evidence that scores will be dropping this year. An Arizona student qualified at 216, and a New Jersey student qualified with 224. With Florida tying its record low, Tennessee setting a record low of 214, Louisiana at a record low (211 or less) and Arizona, Arkansas, and Oklahoma dropping, we need to look at comparable down years such as the Classes of 2021, 2023, and 2024. The huge drop in top RW scores has been a question mark since we first analyzed scores in November. Was the drop consistent at top scores? The answer appears to be, “Yes.”
August 24: The first score report!
Semifinalist packets are now arriving at high schools. It can be a slow process. The time from USPS to school to student can get stretched out. Also, National Merit asks schools not to make the information publicly available until an official announcement is made (likely on September 9th). While there is no prohibition against informing students themselves, many schools prefer to wait. Compass compiles information as students report news and will update this site consistently with the latest information. The first report is from a student in Florida qualifying with a 220.
__________________________
Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
Every year, Compass tracks the National Merit process from the PSAT in October of junior year through the announcement of Semifinalists in September of senior year. One of the most important insights comes in April with the reveal of the national Commended cutoff. Compass has confirmed that this year’s Commended level is 208, down from last year’s 210. There has never been a year when all 50 states see lower cutoffs, but this year may come close. The Class of 2026 saw record Semifinalist cutoffs in 21 states; this year, Compass projects none. Our Semifinalist estimates have been updated with the latest information.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Because Reading and Writing carries double weight, a student with balanced section scores can trail a student with a lower total. Sophomores and juniors preparing for the October PSAT can work on that imbalance directly in a National Merit-focused PSAT class. Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of each state. Compass expects this year’s cutoffs to range from 208 to 223.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
The first indication of a decline was the lower number of top scorers reported by College Board when PSAT results were released in November. College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. Only 52,400 students in the Class of 2027 earned scores in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range, down 16% from the previous year. That figure is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and is similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, the Commended cutoff was bound to decline. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
A big drop after last year’s record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why that is unlikely to happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states.
On the October 2024 PSAT, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as on Math. Based on the results in the highest scoring states, we know that a record number of students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. For this reason, we don’t believe there will be a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
We anticipate that the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs will decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
| State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 210 | 210 - 212 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209 - 214 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 215 | 213 - 216 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 210 | 210 - 212 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 220 | 220 - 220 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216 - 219 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 217 - 220 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Florida | 216 | 216 - 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 218 | 217 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 216 | 214 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210 - 215 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 218 | 217 - 220 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 215 | 214 - 217 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 211 | 210 - 214 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 214 | 213 - 216 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210 - 214 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 211 | 211 - 213 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 214 | 211 - 215 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 221 | 220 - 223 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 216 | 215 - 218 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 215 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 210 - 212 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 214 | 213 - 216 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 209 | 208 - 212 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 211 | 209 - 213 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 211 | 210 - 212 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 220 | 219 - 221 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 217 | 216 - 219 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 216 | 215 - 216 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 209 - 211 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 216 | 215 - 218 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 220 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 218 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 212 | 209 - 215 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208 - 212 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 214 | 214 - 217 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 219 | 219 - 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 211 | 209 - 213 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 213 | 211 - 216 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 221 | 219 - 223 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 212 | 211 - 214 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 211 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| Territories | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 221 - 224 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 208 | 208 - 208 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state. Students still ahead of the October PSAT can prepare with small group PSAT classes built around the Selection Index.
While the Commended cutoff is the same across the entire country, Semifinalists cutoffs vary by state. NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school juniors, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
I got a 219 in Michigan. How high are my chances right now? The virus has made it so much harder to predict what’s to come!
Stuv,
Your chances are quite good. Michigan would need to set a new high (22) for you to miss out. I don’t think that is completely impossible (which is why I included it in my range), but it’s extremely unlikely.
Hi Art: My son got a 219 in New York. Any chance with COVID that we could see the cutoff go down and that he could make it that score? Thanks. David
David,
Normally I’d expect to see New York’s cutoff back to 221. Given site closures, I think a 219 cutoff is possible.
Hi Art,
What do you estimate the percentage to be for New York to have a cutoff of 219 considering the number of closures in NYC Schools? (For example, Stuyvesant High school, which had 154 semifinalists last year, were unable to administer both the October and January PSAT) Do you think the odds are around 50/50 for New York to be 219 or do you think it is lower?
Thanks,
John
John,
Thank you for passing along the information on Stuyvesant. That certainly makes things interesting. I’m still hesitant to put a percentage on things in NY, though, given how uncertain things are.
You are my first source for all things National Merit. Thank you. I find the number analysis fascinating – how for California where less kids took the test due to Covid closures you predict a lower qualifying score. So in NY, do you know how many kids actually took the PSAT? My son has a 221. We’re thinking it’s enough, but your range does have up to 222. Financially this is important as we’re looking at merit tied to NMF and hoping he qualifies. I guess we can’t finalize his application list until we know if he made it. What chance do you think there is that NY is 222?
Toby,
I’m afraid I don’t have additional information for you. I certainly like your son’s odds. A 222 cutoff would be unlikely in NY, especially given that a number of school districts were not able to offer the PSAT. As another reader pointed out, Stuyvesant High School in NYC had to cancel its PSAT, and it contributes 150-160 Semifinalists every year.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all the detailed analyses. We are freezing right now in Austin, setting new record lows. Do you have any updated data on testing PSAT testing volumes in Texas? My son’s SI was 220 for the October 2020 exam. I am sure he will get Commended, but I am not sure about anything beyond that.
Ascari,
I hope you and your family are staying safe. Unfortunately, I do not have any data on Texas PSAT volumes. Based on what we’ve seen from SAT testing, Texas likely had more success than California or New York in pulling off October and January testing. In a normal year, I’d expect Texas’s cutoff to be at 220 or 221. Your son’s score is likely to be in the hunt this year.
Hi Art,
I have a 221 (alternate entry) for Maryland. Do you expect the cutoff to stay the same, granting me the semifinalist status?
Thanks
Nicolas,
A lot will depend on how many Maryland students were able to test. In a normal year, I’d expect Maryland’s cutoff to be at 222. I think we’ll see most cutoffs come in below “normal,” but there is not enough state-by-state information to go on.
Does anyone know or have an opinion as to what this will do to the National Recognition Programs?
Luis,
I’d expect a similar impact. However, College Board is not nearly as transparent about its rules and cutoffs.
Do you know the number of juniors who took the January 2021 PSAT or do you get them after their scores are released? Just wondering how that will affect predictions for cutoff scores.
Thank you!
Wally,
We may get word once scores are released. For now, no updates. Keep in mind that even if we do get updated numbers, they’ll reflect national testing.
Hello Mr.Sawyer
I took the ACT (October) and have a score of 34. I did not take the PSAT.
Will I be qualified with the ACT score to apply for a national semifinalist?
Class of 2022
M – 35
S-31
E – 34
W -34
Please respond. Also, I am from California.
Meera,
Unfortunately, the ACT is not used for entry into the National Merit competition. It is only used as a “confirming score” for those students who become Semifinalists. The PSAT is the normal entrance point for the program, and the SAT is used for Alternate Entry when a student is unable to take the PSAT (as was the case for so many students in California).
Thank you, Mr. Sawyer.
I took SAT recently and got a score of 1510 ( from California)
EBRW — 770
Math — 740
Is there a possibility of being the national semifinalist?
If I retook and got a better score, can I submit that score for national semifinalist?
Meera,
NMSC will use your best Selection Index, so you can submit a better score if you retest. In calculating the Selection Index from an SAT score, NMSC caps the 10-40 subscores at 38. Your EBRW may be made up of a 37 and 40 or a 38 and 39, and those would produce slightly different SIs. Your Math subscore would be a 37.
(37 + 38 + 37) * 2 = 224 or (38 + 38 + 37) x 2 = 226.
As long as NMSC follows its previous guidelines, your score should be high enough. There is still the possibility that it will create a new rule to deal with the huge number of students qualifying based on SAT scores.
Is a 217 in Missouri good enough?
Josh,
We won’t know for sure until September, but I think 217 stands an excellent chance in Missouri this year.
My student took the October PSAT in Texas, and then the SAT in December. She didn’t get a qualifying score with the PSAT but bumped up significantly with the SAT with an SSI now in the potential National Merit semifinalist range. With so many students taking the PSAT in January and given the gains research indicates students can make between October and January (especially in math), do you foresee the College Board allowing October PSAT test takers to submit alternate entry scores?
TC,
Congratulations on your student’s improvement on the SAT. Unfortunately, I don’t foresee NMSC changing the Alternate Entry rules this year (although there is much that I don’t foresee!). Alternate Entry has always been about the need for an alternative when PSAT scores are not available. While the January PSAT raises all kinds of new issues, I don’t think NMSC will decide to add even more complexity by accepting PSAT and SAT scores from all students.
Thanks! I was proud of her, especially since her testing center was changed, the new testing center moved her to a different testing room twice after students began filling in demographic info, (they told her to just fill it out during “breaks,” so no breaks for her), and then they started releasing students who finished early before testing time was up. (Fyi, I did report the testing irregularities to CB but didn’t receive a response.) This year is definitely a circus!
I’m sorry that happened. What’s frustrating is that the demographic information is not even required, but proctors often don’t understand that. Let’s hope the circus is leaving town.
Hi Art:
I received a 218 (normal entry) for the state of Georgia. Do you think that will be enough to be a semifinalist? Thank you!
Praneet,
Because of how unusual this year is, we can only make definitive statements about scores that are well below or well above the expected cutoff. A 218 in Georgia falls somewhere in the middle. I’m afraid you’ll need to check back in late August/early September.
Thank you Art! Do you know when commended students, semifinalists, and finalists are announced?
Praneet,
In late August, NMSC will send schools a list of Semifinalists. It is then up to the school to notify individual students. Compass typically finds out about the state cutoffs around Labor Day. In the second week of September, NMSC releases names to the press. The catch is that the press is under no obligation to publish the lists! It’s best for students to hear from their schools, especially since the schools will provide credentials for the Finalist portal.
Schools are mailed (yes, snail mail) Commended announcements the week after the press release of Semifinalists. However, Compass usually finds out the Commended cutoff in the spring. It may be late this year because of the January PSAT.
In late January or early February 2022, schools and students will be notified of Finalist status.
Hi Art,
I stumbled upon your article after doing some research online to discover if anyone else noticed two mistakes with the non-calculator section of the MATH PSAT! I guess you are one of the top PSAT search results! Kudos! At least for the student I was working with, there were two questions the college board had incorrect answers on their answer key. My student thus was marked wrong for two problems that she did indeed get right. For anyone that has access to the Fall 2020 PSAT solution book/answer breakdown, in the non-calculator math section, check #7 and #9. #7’s correct answer is B and #9’s correct answer is C. Maybe this mistake was just specific to her test because surely this mistake would not go un-noticed by people much smarter than me! Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thanks!
Sean
Sean,
Sorry that it has taken me so long to respond. I would encourage you to reach out to College Board. We had the same issue come up a couple of years ago when one of our Compass tutors uncovered a mistake. I’m only seeing one unscored question (an error) on the Math section at the moment.
Hi Art, My daughter took the October PSAT and got a 224. She took it outside the US. Also, her SAT is 780 Math & 760 Reading. Was wondering on her chances of being a semi-finalist. Thanks
Suresh,
We’ve never seen a cutoff as high as 224, let alone 225. As long as your daughter meets the eligibility requirements, she should be a Semifinalist.
Thanks for your analysis, which is really helpful!!
One thing that confused me a bit. From our child’s 2020 report, it seems like 1400+ lands you in the 99th percentile (user percentile AND national representative sample percentile). Your numbers show otherwise. Any ideas on why there’s a discrepancy?
John,
Perhaps your student is a sophomore? A 1400 is 97th user percentile. Also, the user percentile is based on data for the preceding 3 years and not for 2020.
https://research.collegeboard.org/programs/sat/data/data-tables-technical-resources/psat-nmsqt-score-information
Hi! Thank you so much for being a voice of reason in this crazy test. My son received a 221 in TX – how are his chances? All the data points in his favor, but he is still apprehensive. Thank you!
Rose,
It doesn’t seem like Texas’s cutoff could go above 221. I’d put his chances at 99.9%. The only qualifier I am adding this year is “Unless NMSC decides to change the rules on how it treats Alternate Entry.”
Hey Art! I am a junior who took the PSAT in October of 2020. I got a selection index of 217 in the state of Florida. However, in the time between my PSAT and SAT (March 13), I moved to Georgia. This means National Merit will know that I changed states when I enter the information for my SAT.
My question is, will my semifinalist status be based on the selection index for Florida, or Georgia? 217 is much more plausible for Florida than Georgia.
Thanks!
Ian,
NMSC uses the state of the school you attended when you took the test. In your case, that means Florida.
Hello,
I am a little confused by the score conversion. I live in Georgia, and I scored a 1480 on the SAT (760 EBRW, 720 Math). I am considering taking the SAT again before I send my scores to National Merit, as I know I can improve on math. How should I calculate my current score index? Is it based on how many questions I got right? Thank you for your help.
Kate,
The Selection Index is not based on the number of questions right or wrong. The easiest way to calculate the SI is to ignore the zeros, double the EBRW and add the Math. Your SI was 76×2 + 72 = 224. When calculating an SI from an SAT score, you cap any score at 760 (this is because the PSAT scores only go to 760). That didn’t impact you. Let’s say you test again and get an 800 EBRW and 730 Math. Your SI would only move to 225, because your EBRW score would be capped at 760.
Hi Art…now that the January PSAT scores have been released, are you able to see by state how many juniors took the PSAT between the October and January dates?
Frances,
College Board does not make the state figures available (well, not until next October 2021). I hope to find out more about the January score distributions, but the uneven nature of the administrations means that the uncertainty is likely to remain.
My daughter scored a 213 in Mississippi on the January test. The last four years, the qualifying index score has been 213 (2018), 215 (2019), 214 (2020), and 211 (2021). I see where your expected range for the class of 2022 for Mississippi is 207-215. If you had to put a percentage on her chances of qualifying with a 213 in Mississippi, would you say 50/50; 60/40; 70/30? Or less than 50%? I know this would be an educated guess on your part, but at least it will keep my wife from asking me every night at bedtime between now and September!
Suresh,
Since you put it that way, I have to answer! Mississippi’s cutoffs tend to bounce with the Commended level. My educated guess is that most cutoffs will look more similar to the Class of 2021 cutoffs than, say, the class of 2020 cutoffs. I’ll go with 60/40. We’ll likely have a better idea if the Commended cutoff leaks (as it sometimes does in April). If we see a Commended figure at 209 or lower, I’d re-evaluate my guess as 70/30 or 80/20. The relationship is imperfect this year, since Mississippi may have had more (or fewer) students able to test than did other states.
Hello! I got a 206 selection index (perfect score on math, but didn’t do well on reading). Do you still think that the commended cutoff could be a 206?
I haven’t seen the test taker numbers yet. Depending on how few students were able to take January, a 206 is not out of the question.
Hi Art,
Now that the January scores are released, I’m wondering if your prediction chart stands, or if it might shift again with those scores.
I’m pretty sure my class of 2022 kid’s Washington 214 will be Commended, and not SF. I’d love to be surprised, though. Thanks!
Shannon,
While scores have been released to students, I haven’t received the score distribution information yet. I don’t expect it to remove the uncertainty around cutoffs, since we still won’t know profiles by state. Washington’s cutoff is unlikely to go to 214, but you’ve got the right attitude. These times definitely call for a love of surprise.
Hi Art!
Thank you so much for all of your excellent information!
How did you get the figures for how many people scored at least 1400 on each PSAT (26,103 in October)? The closest I can find is https://reports.collegeboard.org/sat-suite-program-results, which only shows percentages rounded to the nearest whole number.
Thanks!
George,
The figures are from College Board. They are not publicly reported.
Thanks for the quick reply!
I know this may be a hassle, but I would greatly appreciate it if you could tell me the number of sophomores who scored at least 1400 for the 2015, 2016, and 2017 PSATs. I see the corresponding numbers for juniors on this page and for sophomores on the 2018 and 2019 PSATs at https://www.compassprep.com/major-drop-in-psat-scores/.
Thank you so much!
George,
I don’t have those historical figures for sophomores. There was once a time when College Board was happy to share its figures, but CEO David Coleman has systematically killed off much of its publicly available research. If you want to go back deeper, you can find the old PSAT archives here: https://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr.
Thank you for the info!
Art – Great information. Thank you. What are your latest projections for semifinalist score cutoffs for California?
Sam,
I don’t expect to get enough new information to revise the California estimates. While I think 220-222 is a likely range, anyone who says that the cutoff couldn’t fall anywhere from 217-223 is either operating with a lot more information than I am or a lot less.
Art,
Thank you very much for all of your amazing information.
There are flaws in the current selection process of semi-finalist and these flaws seem to exacerbate the issue of fairness especially this year.
Don’t you think that one way to address it, is for NMSC, to allow juniors that took PSAT in October 2020 or January 2021 to also send their SAT scores when possible?
Allowing juniors to have their highest or average Selection Index between their PSAT and SATs, will ameliorate the situation. They can still base the cutoff on Selection Indexes from juniors that took PSAT, but at least give them a chance to improve their Selection Index, when possible. Example: A junior from California with PSAT score 1450 and SAT score 1600 should have a better Selection Index than another junior from California with SAT score of 1470.
What do you think?
G,
If NMSC had known that the year would turn out the way it did, it might have rethought its procedures. I agree that there is a certain arbitrariness to things. A problem that NMSC faces is that April is typically the time it needs to contact schools to verify eligibility for future Commended students and Semifinalists. If it used SAT scores to establish cutoffs, it would not have enough information early enough. There is also the business relationship between College Board and NMSC that promotes the junior PSAT as the PSAT/NMSQT. I think both organizations would like to preserve that arrangement. Unfortunately, it’s too late in the process for NMSC to alter its policies for the class of 2022. Going forward, it may need to consider a whole new way of handling Alternative Entry.
Hey Art!
The Alternate Entry form states that scores should be received no later than October, but statuses usually seem to come in late August/September. What does this mean?
Also, I know it’s nothing more than an educated guess at the moment, but I’ll take all the information I can get! My index score from the SAT is 223. As a student in California, what would you place my chances of being a Commended or Semifinalist?
Russ,
Historically it has meant that students who send their scores late are tacked on as additional Semifinalists (it’s nice to be on the big announcement, but it’s not necessary).
I’m qualifying everything I say about AE with “If NMSC follows its previous guidelines…,” because it does have the right to change things. If NMSC follows its previous guidelines, then a 223 in CA should be high enough for Semifinalist.
Hi Art, just out of curiosity, do you know how many students get a perfect 228 selection index each year on average? Additionally, for homeschooling families that don’t have a relationship with a high school principal, who typically writes the letter of recommendation which is required to advanced from semifinalist to finalist? We homeschool and are military, so we just moved here to Virginia and don’t know any school officials. Thank you kindly!
Casey,
College Board has never released that information for the PSAT. I’ve done back-of-the-envelope calculations before and estimated a bit less than 0.1% — maybe 1,000-1,200 students.
NMSC doesn’t allow a parent to write the letter, but it does not have to be a school official. Perhaps you’ve worked with a teacher at some point who could write a recommendation.
Hello Art,
I am a little confused by the score conversion. I live in California, and I scored a 1560 on the SAT (360 EBR, 400 W, 800 Math). How should I calculate my current score index? Do you think I may qualify for semi-finalist? Should I consider to take the SAT again before I send my scores to National Merit. Thank you for your help.
Tina,
NMSC caps the EBR, W, and Math scores at the PSAT level of 38. Your Selection Index would be (36 + 38 + 38) * 2 = 224. If NMSC follows its previous guidelines, then that should qualify.