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National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2025

By November 15, 2023National Merit, PSAT

Breaking News: We now have the results from all of the 1,490,000 juniors who took the October 2023 PSAT and have updated our estimates accordingly.

Compass Co-founder Adam Ingersoll hosted a strategy session that helped students interpret their official PSAT results and craft a smart path forward. He shared our latest insights and updated forecasts as the role of testing steadily regains significance in competitive contexts.

WATCH THE RECORDING

The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]

Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.

This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.

50,000 juniors achieved a score of 1400-1520 in the class of 2025. Compass estimates that this will result in a Commended cutoff between 208 and 210, with the most likely cutoff at 209.

The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.

The line of best fit shows that this year's total of 50,000 top scorers is likely to result in a Commended cutoff of 209.

The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.

StateClass of 2025
(Most Likely)
Class of 2025
(Est Range)
Class of 2024
(Actual)
Class of 2023
(Actual)
Class of 2022
(Actual)
Alabama212210 - 216210212212
Alaska212209 - 215209210208
Arizona217214 - 220216214218
Arkansas212208 - 215210210211
California221219 - 223221220221
Colorado217215 - 220216217217
Connecticut221219 - 222221221220
Delaware220218 - 222219218220
District of Columbia223222 - 224223223224
Florida216215 - 219216216217
Georgia219216 - 220217218219
Hawaii217215 - 220217215217
Idaho214210 - 216211215214
Illinois219217 - 221219219218
Indiana216213 - 219216214215
Iowa213210 - 216210212211
Kansas215213 - 218214214215
Kentucky214210 - 217211212212
Louisiana214211 - 217214213213
Maine214211 - 217213215211
Maryland222219 - 223221222224
Massachusetts222220 - 223222220221
Michigan217215 - 220217218217
Minnesota218215 - 220216216218
Mississippi211209 - 215209210213
Missouri215212 - 218214213214
Montana210208 - 214209207208
Nebraska213209 - 216210212210
Nevada214210 - 218211210214
New Hampshire215213 - 219215213214
New Jersey223222 - 224223223222
New Mexico211208 - 215207208210
New York220218 - 222220219220
North Carolina218215 - 220217217218
North Dakota209208 - 212207209207
Ohio216214 - 218216216215
Oklahoma211208 - 216208211210
Oregon217215 - 220216216220
Pennsylvania219217 - 221219218218
Rhode Island216213 - 219215216213
South Carolina213209 - 217209213213
South Dakota211208 - 215209212210
Tennessee216214 - 219217215215
Texas220218 - 221219219220
Utah212209 - 216209211212
Vermont213210 - 217212213211
Virginia221219 - 222219221221
Washington220218 - 222220220220
West Virginia209208 - 212207207207
Wisconsin214212 - 217213213214
Wyoming209208 - 211207207208
​U.S. Territories209208 - 210207207207
​​Studying Abroad223222 - 224223223224
​​​Commended209208 - 210207207207

[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]

The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.

However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.

Distribution of year-over-year cutoff changes shows that there is a roughly normal distribution, with no change occurring 30% of the time.

Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.

 

The number of states seeing cutoff changes has never dropped below 25. In some years, virtually all cutoffs have gone up or down.

Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.

What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.

The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.

How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).

Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

3,662 Comments

  • Stuv says:

    I got a 219 in Michigan. How high are my chances right now? The virus has made it so much harder to predict what’s to come!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Stuv,
      Your chances are quite good. Michigan would need to set a new high (22) for you to miss out. I don’t think that is completely impossible (which is why I included it in my range), but it’s extremely unlikely.

  • David says:

    Hi Art: My son got a 219 in New York. Any chance with COVID that we could see the cutoff go down and that he could make it that score? Thanks. David

    • Art Sawyer says:

      David,
      Normally I’d expect to see New York’s cutoff back to 221. Given site closures, I think a 219 cutoff is possible.

      • John says:

        Hi Art,
        What do you estimate the percentage to be for New York to have a cutoff of 219 considering the number of closures in NYC Schools? (For example, Stuyvesant High school, which had 154 semifinalists last year, were unable to administer both the October and January PSAT) Do you think the odds are around 50/50 for New York to be 219 or do you think it is lower?

        Thanks,
        John

        • Art Sawyer says:

          John,
          Thank you for passing along the information on Stuyvesant. That certainly makes things interesting. I’m still hesitant to put a percentage on things in NY, though, given how uncertain things are.

      • Toby says:

        You are my first source for all things National Merit. Thank you. I find the number analysis fascinating – how for California where less kids took the test due to Covid closures you predict a lower qualifying score. So in NY, do you know how many kids actually took the PSAT? My son has a 221. We’re thinking it’s enough, but your range does have up to 222. Financially this is important as we’re looking at merit tied to NMF and hoping he qualifies. I guess we can’t finalize his application list until we know if he made it. What chance do you think there is that NY is 222?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Toby,
          I’m afraid I don’t have additional information for you. I certainly like your son’s odds. A 222 cutoff would be unlikely in NY, especially given that a number of school districts were not able to offer the PSAT. As another reader pointed out, Stuyvesant High School in NYC had to cancel its PSAT, and it contributes 150-160 Semifinalists every year.

    • Ascari says:

      Hi Art,
      Thank you for all the detailed analyses. We are freezing right now in Austin, setting new record lows. Do you have any updated data on testing PSAT testing volumes in Texas? My son’s SI was 220 for the October 2020 exam. I am sure he will get Commended, but I am not sure about anything beyond that.

      • Art Sawyer says:

        Ascari,
        I hope you and your family are staying safe. Unfortunately, I do not have any data on Texas PSAT volumes. Based on what we’ve seen from SAT testing, Texas likely had more success than California or New York in pulling off October and January testing. In a normal year, I’d expect Texas’s cutoff to be at 220 or 221. Your son’s score is likely to be in the hunt this year.

  • Nicolas says:

    Hi Art,
    I have a 221 (alternate entry) for Maryland. Do you expect the cutoff to stay the same, granting me the semifinalist status?
    Thanks

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Nicolas,
      A lot will depend on how many Maryland students were able to test. In a normal year, I’d expect Maryland’s cutoff to be at 222. I think we’ll see most cutoffs come in below “normal,” but there is not enough state-by-state information to go on.

  • Luis says:

    Does anyone know or have an opinion as to what this will do to the National Recognition Programs?

  • Wally says:

    Do you know the number of juniors who took the January 2021 PSAT or do you get them after their scores are released? Just wondering how that will affect predictions for cutoff scores.

    Thank you!

  • meera says:

    Hello Mr.Sawyer

    I took the ACT (October) and have a score of 34. I did not take the PSAT.

    Will I be qualified with the ACT score to apply for a national semifinalist?
    Class of 2022
    M – 35
    S-31
    E – 34
    W -34
    Please respond. Also, I am from California.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Meera,
      Unfortunately, the ACT is not used for entry into the National Merit competition. It is only used as a “confirming score” for those students who become Semifinalists. The PSAT is the normal entrance point for the program, and the SAT is used for Alternate Entry when a student is unable to take the PSAT (as was the case for so many students in California).

      • meera says:

        Thank you, Mr. Sawyer.

        I took SAT recently and got a score of 1510 ( from California)

        EBRW — 770
        Math — 740

        Is there a possibility of being the national semifinalist?
        If I retook and got a better score, can I submit that score for national semifinalist?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Meera,
          NMSC will use your best Selection Index, so you can submit a better score if you retest. In calculating the Selection Index from an SAT score, NMSC caps the 10-40 subscores at 38. Your EBRW may be made up of a 37 and 40 or a 38 and 39, and those would produce slightly different SIs. Your Math subscore would be a 37.
          (37 + 38 + 37) * 2 = 224 or (38 + 38 + 37) x 2 = 226.

          As long as NMSC follows its previous guidelines, your score should be high enough. There is still the possibility that it will create a new rule to deal with the huge number of students qualifying based on SAT scores.

  • Josh says:

    Is a 217 in Missouri good enough?

  • TC says:

    My student took the October PSAT in Texas, and then the SAT in December. She didn’t get a qualifying score with the PSAT but bumped up significantly with the SAT with an SSI now in the potential National Merit semifinalist range. With so many students taking the PSAT in January and given the gains research indicates students can make between October and January (especially in math), do you foresee the College Board allowing October PSAT test takers to submit alternate entry scores?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      TC,
      Congratulations on your student’s improvement on the SAT. Unfortunately, I don’t foresee NMSC changing the Alternate Entry rules this year (although there is much that I don’t foresee!). Alternate Entry has always been about the need for an alternative when PSAT scores are not available. While the January PSAT raises all kinds of new issues, I don’t think NMSC will decide to add even more complexity by accepting PSAT and SAT scores from all students.

      • TC says:

        Thanks! I was proud of her, especially since her testing center was changed, the new testing center moved her to a different testing room twice after students began filling in demographic info, (they told her to just fill it out during “breaks,” so no breaks for her), and then they started releasing students who finished early before testing time was up. (Fyi, I did report the testing irregularities to CB but didn’t receive a response.) This year is definitely a circus!

        • Art Sawyer says:

          I’m sorry that happened. What’s frustrating is that the demographic information is not even required, but proctors often don’t understand that. Let’s hope the circus is leaving town.

  • Praneet says:

    Hi Art:
    I received a 218 (normal entry) for the state of Georgia. Do you think that will be enough to be a semifinalist? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Praneet,
      Because of how unusual this year is, we can only make definitive statements about scores that are well below or well above the expected cutoff. A 218 in Georgia falls somewhere in the middle. I’m afraid you’ll need to check back in late August/early September.

      • Praneet says:

        Thank you Art! Do you know when commended students, semifinalists, and finalists are announced?

        • Art Sawyer says:

          Praneet,
          In late August, NMSC will send schools a list of Semifinalists. It is then up to the school to notify individual students. Compass typically finds out about the state cutoffs around Labor Day. In the second week of September, NMSC releases names to the press. The catch is that the press is under no obligation to publish the lists! It’s best for students to hear from their schools, especially since the schools will provide credentials for the Finalist portal.

          Schools are mailed (yes, snail mail) Commended announcements the week after the press release of Semifinalists. However, Compass usually finds out the Commended cutoff in the spring. It may be late this year because of the January PSAT.

          In late January or early February 2022, schools and students will be notified of Finalist status.

  • Sean says:

    Hi Art,

    I stumbled upon your article after doing some research online to discover if anyone else noticed two mistakes with the non-calculator section of the MATH PSAT! I guess you are one of the top PSAT search results! Kudos! At least for the student I was working with, there were two questions the college board had incorrect answers on their answer key. My student thus was marked wrong for two problems that she did indeed get right. For anyone that has access to the Fall 2020 PSAT solution book/answer breakdown, in the non-calculator math section, check #7 and #9. #7’s correct answer is B and #9’s correct answer is C. Maybe this mistake was just specific to her test because surely this mistake would not go un-noticed by people much smarter than me! Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thanks!

    Sean

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sean,
      Sorry that it has taken me so long to respond. I would encourage you to reach out to College Board. We had the same issue come up a couple of years ago when one of our Compass tutors uncovered a mistake. I’m only seeing one unscored question (an error) on the Math section at the moment.

  • Suresh says:

    Hi Art, My daughter took the October PSAT and got a 224. She took it outside the US. Also, her SAT is 780 Math & 760 Reading. Was wondering on her chances of being a semi-finalist. Thanks

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Suresh,
      We’ve never seen a cutoff as high as 224, let alone 225. As long as your daughter meets the eligibility requirements, she should be a Semifinalist.

  • John says:

    Thanks for your analysis, which is really helpful!!

    One thing that confused me a bit. From our child’s 2020 report, it seems like 1400+ lands you in the 99th percentile (user percentile AND national representative sample percentile). Your numbers show otherwise. Any ideas on why there’s a discrepancy?

  • Rose says:

    Hi! Thank you so much for being a voice of reason in this crazy test. My son received a 221 in TX – how are his chances? All the data points in his favor, but he is still apprehensive. Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Rose,
      It doesn’t seem like Texas’s cutoff could go above 221. I’d put his chances at 99.9%. The only qualifier I am adding this year is “Unless NMSC decides to change the rules on how it treats Alternate Entry.”

  • Ian says:

    Hey Art! I am a junior who took the PSAT in October of 2020. I got a selection index of 217 in the state of Florida. However, in the time between my PSAT and SAT (March 13), I moved to Georgia. This means National Merit will know that I changed states when I enter the information for my SAT.

    My question is, will my semifinalist status be based on the selection index for Florida, or Georgia? 217 is much more plausible for Florida than Georgia.

    Thanks!

  • Kate says:

    Hello,
    I am a little confused by the score conversion. I live in Georgia, and I scored a 1480 on the SAT (760 EBRW, 720 Math). I am considering taking the SAT again before I send my scores to National Merit, as I know I can improve on math. How should I calculate my current score index? Is it based on how many questions I got right? Thank you for your help.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Kate,
      The Selection Index is not based on the number of questions right or wrong. The easiest way to calculate the SI is to ignore the zeros, double the EBRW and add the Math. Your SI was 76×2 + 72 = 224. When calculating an SI from an SAT score, you cap any score at 760 (this is because the PSAT scores only go to 760). That didn’t impact you. Let’s say you test again and get an 800 EBRW and 730 Math. Your SI would only move to 225, because your EBRW score would be capped at 760.

  • Frances says:

    Hi Art…now that the January PSAT scores have been released, are you able to see by state how many juniors took the PSAT between the October and January dates?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Frances,
      College Board does not make the state figures available (well, not until next October 2021). I hope to find out more about the January score distributions, but the uneven nature of the administrations means that the uncertainty is likely to remain.

  • Suresh C. says:

    My daughter scored a 213 in Mississippi on the January test. The last four years, the qualifying index score has been 213 (2018), 215 (2019), 214 (2020), and 211 (2021). I see where your expected range for the class of 2022 for Mississippi is 207-215. If you had to put a percentage on her chances of qualifying with a 213 in Mississippi, would you say 50/50; 60/40; 70/30? Or less than 50%? I know this would be an educated guess on your part, but at least it will keep my wife from asking me every night at bedtime between now and September!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Suresh,
      Since you put it that way, I have to answer! Mississippi’s cutoffs tend to bounce with the Commended level. My educated guess is that most cutoffs will look more similar to the Class of 2021 cutoffs than, say, the class of 2020 cutoffs. I’ll go with 60/40. We’ll likely have a better idea if the Commended cutoff leaks (as it sometimes does in April). If we see a Commended figure at 209 or lower, I’d re-evaluate my guess as 70/30 or 80/20. The relationship is imperfect this year, since Mississippi may have had more (or fewer) students able to test than did other states.

  • 206 says:

    Hello! I got a 206 selection index (perfect score on math, but didn’t do well on reading). Do you still think that the commended cutoff could be a 206?

  • Shannon says:

    Hi Art,
    Now that the January scores are released, I’m wondering if your prediction chart stands, or if it might shift again with those scores.
    I’m pretty sure my class of 2022 kid’s Washington 214 will be Commended, and not SF. I’d love to be surprised, though. Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Shannon,
      While scores have been released to students, I haven’t received the score distribution information yet. I don’t expect it to remove the uncertainty around cutoffs, since we still won’t know profiles by state. Washington’s cutoff is unlikely to go to 214, but you’ve got the right attitude. These times definitely call for a love of surprise.

  • George says:

    Hi Art!

    Thank you so much for all of your excellent information!

    How did you get the figures for how many people scored at least 1400 on each PSAT (26,103 in October)? The closest I can find is https://reports.collegeboard.org/sat-suite-program-results, which only shows percentages rounded to the nearest whole number.

    Thanks!

  • Sam says:

    Art – Great information. Thank you. What are your latest projections for semifinalist score cutoffs for California?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Sam,
      I don’t expect to get enough new information to revise the California estimates. While I think 220-222 is a likely range, anyone who says that the cutoff couldn’t fall anywhere from 217-223 is either operating with a lot more information than I am or a lot less.

  • G says:

    Art,
    Thank you very much for all of your amazing information.
    There are flaws in the current selection process of semi-finalist and these flaws seem to exacerbate the issue of fairness especially this year.
    Don’t you think that one way to address it, is for NMSC, to allow juniors that took PSAT in October 2020 or January 2021 to also send their SAT scores when possible?
    Allowing juniors to have their highest or average Selection Index between their PSAT and SATs, will ameliorate the situation. They can still base the cutoff on Selection Indexes from juniors that took PSAT, but at least give them a chance to improve their Selection Index, when possible. Example: A junior from California with PSAT score 1450 and SAT score 1600 should have a better Selection Index than another junior from California with SAT score of 1470.
    What do you think?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      G,
      If NMSC had known that the year would turn out the way it did, it might have rethought its procedures. I agree that there is a certain arbitrariness to things. A problem that NMSC faces is that April is typically the time it needs to contact schools to verify eligibility for future Commended students and Semifinalists. If it used SAT scores to establish cutoffs, it would not have enough information early enough. There is also the business relationship between College Board and NMSC that promotes the junior PSAT as the PSAT/NMSQT. I think both organizations would like to preserve that arrangement. Unfortunately, it’s too late in the process for NMSC to alter its policies for the class of 2022. Going forward, it may need to consider a whole new way of handling Alternative Entry.

  • Russ says:

    Hey Art!

    The Alternate Entry form states that scores should be received no later than October, but statuses usually seem to come in late August/September. What does this mean?
    Also, I know it’s nothing more than an educated guess at the moment, but I’ll take all the information I can get! My index score from the SAT is 223. As a student in California, what would you place my chances of being a Commended or Semifinalist?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Russ,
      Historically it has meant that students who send their scores late are tacked on as additional Semifinalists (it’s nice to be on the big announcement, but it’s not necessary).

      I’m qualifying everything I say about AE with “If NMSC follows its previous guidelines…,” because it does have the right to change things. If NMSC follows its previous guidelines, then a 223 in CA should be high enough for Semifinalist.

  • Casey says:

    Hi Art, just out of curiosity, do you know how many students get a perfect 228 selection index each year on average? Additionally, for homeschooling families that don’t have a relationship with a high school principal, who typically writes the letter of recommendation which is required to advanced from semifinalist to finalist? We homeschool and are military, so we just moved here to Virginia and don’t know any school officials. Thank you kindly!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Casey,
      College Board has never released that information for the PSAT. I’ve done back-of-the-envelope calculations before and estimated a bit less than 0.1% — maybe 1,000-1,200 students.

      NMSC doesn’t allow a parent to write the letter, but it does not have to be a school official. Perhaps you’ve worked with a teacher at some point who could write a recommendation.

  • Tina says:

    Hello Art,

    I am a little confused by the score conversion. I live in California, and I scored a 1560 on the SAT (360 EBR, 400 W, 800 Math). How should I calculate my current score index? Do you think I may qualify for semi-finalist? Should I consider to take the SAT again before I send my scores to National Merit. Thank you for your help.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Tina,
      NMSC caps the EBR, W, and Math scores at the PSAT level of 38. Your Selection Index would be (36 + 38 + 38) * 2 = 224. If NMSC follows its previous guidelines, then that should qualify.

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