Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art! I am a junior in Kentucky this year (class of 2022) and I got a 219 on the October PSAT. The cut-off score was lower last year than it has been before (214 compared to 217, 218, and so on), and I was wondering if you have an educated guess on the chances of me becoming a SF because I am not sure how the predicted cut-off score will vary based on the current circumstances.
Junior,
I think the chance of KY’s cutoff moving to 220 is essentially 0. Congratulations!
Thanks for the informative article! Do you have any information on the historical cut-offs for boarding school regions? I am particularly interested in Boston area region–that is, what have been the historical selection index cutoffs that would include Exeter and Andover? Do you know which top boarding schools administered the PSAT and which did not? I am wondering how alternate entry might impact the boarding school regions. Thoughts?
Lisa,
Boarding school cutoffs are set regionally based on the highest state cutoff in the region — so it doesn’t actually reflect the scores of the boarding school students. In New England, Massachusetts is typically going to establish the cutoff (so you can look at MA for historical performance). I don’t know how successful the boarding schools were in administering the PSAT, but most independent schools had more flexibility than did public schools.
Art,
Any idea when the projections from the January test results will reflect actual totals? Since the results were released to the students in March I was hoping for an update to the project. Thanks!
Kelley,
I haven’t yet been able to get the January numbers. Keep in mind that while the figures might give us a better sense of the Commended levels, they are unlikely to give more insight into Semifinalist cutoffs (which depend on the vagaries of test site availability).
My daughter received a 224 (alternative entry) for the state of Maryland. Do you think that will be enough to be a semifinalist?
Sharon,
As long as NMSC sticks to its prior rules, a 224 will qualify in MD.
A high school principal tweeted on Friday congratulating two specific juniors stating that they will be recognized in the National Merit program. Might this mean that the commended cutoff has been calculated? Have you heard anything yet? Also, have you heard how many total juniors took the combined October and January PSATs and what percent of them scored 1400+?
Amy,
Yes, the principal had received notice of recognized students. The Commended cutoff looks to be 207 this year. I don’t have the additional January data, but it’s largely moot now that the cutoff has been confirmed.
Mr. Sawyer: Do you have any idea when we’ll have a better idea of the actual cutoffs for class of 2022? My personal interest is in TX, but I’m also interested in a more general answer. I know it’s usually officially announced in September, but I’m also aware that the numbers are generally well-known before then.
Santiago,
I’ve never known Semifinalist cutoffs to leak before NMSC mails information to high schools in late August. The Commended cutoff has been confirmed at 207, but Texas falls well beyond that range, so the new information does little to decrease the uncertainty. I will say that it is unlikely for a state to hit a new high this year, which means that Texas will be at 221 or lower.
Hello Art,
Since it is practically confirmed that the PSAT Commended cutoff is now 207, will you be making any changes to the state cutoff prediction list?
Thanks,
Mike
Proof: https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/comments/mylo0q/commended_cutoff_confirmation/
Mike,
I’ve updated my post to reflect the latest information. The Commended level changes relatively little because (1) the 207 fell where expected and (2) the fall confirms that test cancelations are driving things this year, and we simply don’t have data on state-by-state cancelations.
Where will the press release be published? On the official website of the nsmc?
Katherine,
I don’t know the URL, but the release on the NMSC site will not be the release that you’re looking for. All it will be is an announcement that approximately 17,000 students have been named Semifinalists. There will be no names and no cutoffs. It’s the statewide releases that have students’ names, but those are only released via press outlets — and in a world of diminished press, those are not easy to find. Those releases also lack cutoffs. That’s one of the reasons I and others try to put this information together.
Hey Art,
As you saw the commended cutoff dropped to 207. Do you think states will follow that trend with selection indexes? What do you think the chances of Florida dropping to a 215 is?
Varun,
I just updated the post with some additional commentary. The drop in Commended cutoff confirms the theory that the overall decline in test takers pushed scores lower, but it does relatively little to inform us what happened at the state level. In a “normal” year, I’d expect to see Florida in the 217-219 range. The question then — and this is the question for every state — what was the local impact of test cancelations? In Florida, more than zero but less than in some other states. I think a 215 is possible. I haven’t seen enough information about Florida cancelations to give proper odds.
Hi Art,
I cannot confirm 100% if this is true or not, but I heard that the most California’s cutoff is 220 and Florida’s is 217.
Thanks,
John
John,
I can confirm the Florida number.
Hello Art,
Do you know the cut off for Florida? Thank you
Florida is confirmed at 217.
National Merit Semifinalist notification letters are out! We homeschool in Virginia, and just received ours today, dated Aug 24, 2021.
Congratulations!
Would you mind sharing your score? It helps others know if they made it. Thanks.
Sure thing, she scored a 1520 and her Selection Index is 228. I was looking for any verbiage about cutoff scores on the letter, although it unfortunately didn’t have any of that information included.
Our only problem is that our daughter has a double-whammy, in that she’s both homeschooled AND a military kid (we move every 1-2 years) so she has no principal, counselor, or teacher other than my wife and me. No one has every known her academically other than us. Yet the NMSC letter says, “Choose someone who is not related to the Semifinalist and who knows the student in an academic capacity to provide the recommendation and endorsement.” I’m at a loss as to how to get around this, and it certainly puts my daughter at a disadvantage if we have to find someone on the fly to write the letter who doesn’t know her academically. Do you happen to have ideas or experience with this? Thank you.
I guess she wasn’t on pins-and-needles with that score!
I don’t have a ready solution, but I will say that the folks at NMSC are very helpful. I’d give them a call to discuss the situation, as they certainly face this every year.
215 made SF in TN.
Thanks, EJ. I’ll update the page now.
FYI: TN cutoff may be lower than 215, unsure. Only know that 215 is qualifying.
We are in TN & received the letter today as well.
Thanks, Liz. Congratulations!
For TN, do you know if there has been a confirmed score less than 215? If yes, can you share the number? thank you!
All we know so far is that a student qualified at 215. That means that a cutoff below 215 is still in play.
Hi! I’m from NJ with a 223 index. Do you think that it will go over 223 for NJ? Have you been able to gather any information from NJ homeschoolers or principals? Thank you so much!
Grace,
I haven’t heard anything from NJ. I don’t think it will end up at 224, but it’s too soon to say definitively. Good luck!
Where do you find the data for the commended cutoff and the semifinalist cutoffs?
Robert,
NMSC doesn’t publicly release the cutoffs. However, the information leaks out in a variety of ways. Some schools don’t notify students until the press release date of September 15th.
My son got his letter from his counselor today, qualified in NV with 215.
Congratulations to your son, and thanks for the update!
Hi! I got a 215 index in Tennessee for this year. How confident are you in it being <=215? Thanks!
JT,
I’ve got a report of a student qualifying with 215 in TN, so you should be good!
Hi Art,
Any thoughts on Missouri? Child has a 215.
Thank you!
Megan,
No news yet on Missouri.
Hi Art,
Reddit is confirming someone saying 215 qualifies.
Thanks!
That’s great news!
Do you think it is reliable to think 215 will be a qualifying score?
The best I can say is that I don’t have any information that contradicts it.
Hey Art! I have a 223 index in Washington. I was wondering if you have any updates on the cutoff or any idea when it could possibly be leaked.
Also, I submitted a 1540 SAT as an alternate entry because I didn’t think I would take the PSAT but I did end up taking it. It’s not my best score either cause I didn’t think much of it until now. Do they just disregard my SAT if that is the case and take my PSAT into consideration for qualification?
Thanks in advance 🙂
Nothing yet from WA. Sometimes we don’t hear things until after Labor Day. Washington has never gone above 222, so you are in great shape.
The rules for Alternate Entry are that a student not have taken a PSAT, so they *should* ignore your SAT.
Art,
Any information on cutoffs or results from Maryland? My index is 219.
Thank you!
Nothing yet, Caden.
Any insight on Alabama yet?
Thanks!
Not yet, RSM. Good luck!
Just got my letter from my principal, max cutoff in Alabama is 214. I had a 215, but the lowest scorer that got NMSF at my school had a 214 SI.
Great job, Mason! Thanks for sharing that info.
Daughter made it to semifinalist in Georgia with 221.
Great news! Thanks for sharing.
Art, what you do is awesome! I literally am checking your updates every hour! My daughter scored two points higher than the last cutoff minimum in Mississippi for Class of 2021, so we have been waiting around for updates all late August. In looking at the first five states, if those scores end up being the minimums (and i know they may go lower), then compared to 2021 GA is +2, Florida is +1, Nevada is even, Tennessee is even, and Oklahoma is -1. I feel like it is election night 2020 or something here!!!!! HAH!!! Anyways, one question…..how often do you plan to update and add states to the list (on average, how many times a day)?
It may be a long election night! Things can drag out for a week or so. Sometimes we get lucky with a full leak. Yes, I look at as positive that we haven’t thing any scary on the high side.
I usually try to pass along information as soon as possible. The updates really depend on when new data come in. This week happens to be my vacation week, so sometimes things are delayed a few hours. Good luck to your daughter!
Suresh, I’m in MS as well and my son made a 212…….I’m on pins and needles. I saw on another site that someone with a 214 got it but that doesn’t appear to do us any good yet. I think the smoke will clear soon and we’ll know either way. If anybody has an “in” with the principal at MSMS, they probably have the best idea right now if they’ve received their list because they’ll have scores above and some that just missed so they may can extrapolate the cutoff.
JB, my son made a 214 and missed out by 1 point for class of 2019. We were distraught. He ended up getting into Harvard and UPenn (turned them both down and went full ride to SMU, go figure). As huge as these moments are, in the whole scheme of things, there are bigger fish to fry. But hey, this would not look bad on our kids’ resumes!!!
Thanks for your awesome work on this. This info is tremendously useful. My question is this: How confident can we be about these early reports? I’m particularly interested in Oklahoma where my very pessimistic high schooler has a selection index of 211. Thanks!
Ron,
My experience is that reports are usually accurate and honest. No word on Oklahoma.
Art, is there typically a range for commended? I’m interested in Oklahoma, specifically. Thank you!
Karla,
The Commended cutoff is a national figure and is at 207 this year.
221 in PA…feeling pretty confident but wondering what you think? It would have to go up 5 pts from last year for my son to miss the cut off…
I got a tip today from a reliable source that PA came in at 219. They were not 100% on the info, but I feel confident that your son will qualify at 221.
Hello Art,
Has there been any news on New York?
Thanks,
Mike
None that I’ve heard, yet, Mike.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all of this amazing information!! Just a point of clarification for PA: Are you saying that 219 is “likely” to be the exact cutoff number for the state, or that 219 is “likely” to be a successfully qualifying score?
Thanks,
John
John,
The source was reasonably certain that 219 was the exact cutoff. I don’t want it to go unasterisked, because they were not absolutely certain.
My son has a 218 in PA so this is very unfortunate news. But thanks for the information.
I hope I’m wrong.
Kim — we’re at 218 in PA as well. It’s a tough pill for my kid to swallow given that the cutoff is +2 from last year in a -2 commended year. I guess we need to keep it in perspective — in the end, it really doesn’t matter much whether they are SF or not. They’ll get into college. They’ll be fine. The fact that the college board has this much power over us (emotionally) is messed up.
CA 222 – My kid made it.
Congratulations, siva! That fits with the rumors that CA has come in at 220 this year.
Surprised that the cutoff dropped so little in CA given how widespread cancellations were, including at some of the powerhouses in Silicon Valley. Given your estimated range in the article, I thought it would be close to the bottom number of 217.
CA Parent,
The only definitive information that I have is that the cutoff is less than or equal to 222. There is a rumor that it is at 220, but I haven’t been able to confirm that yet. The score distributions get much fatter as you drop down each point, so that usually limits the amount of drop. There is also mixed information on whether Alternate Entry scores were considered.
Thanks for all of your work on this. Very helpful.
Wondering what the “mixed information” is about whether Alternate Entry scores were considered. I thought that was a separate group that didn’t affect the cutoff scores.
rca,
My understanding from previous years is that Alternate Entry scores are not considered. A student who called NMSC this year was told otherwise. I think there is a good chance that there was a misunderstanding, but this year is so odd that I don’t want to discount the possibility the new information is accurate.
I emailed the principal this morning to ask about my son. He didn’t make it with a 220 in Ca. Unfortunately- he would have easily made it based on his SAT score.
Sonia,
I’m sorry that your son missed out on NMSF, but it sounds like he’ll have a great SAT score for applications. Apparently the rumors of a 220 in CA are false. Thank you for the information.
Hi Mr. Sawyer
Is the 221 based on this comment only (or any other sources)? For the longest time, it was leaked to be at 220, so I’m just wondering if there’s still a possibility of it being 220 for CA?
Yes. No other sources at this point, Aaron.
Absolutely Alternate Entry scores were considered this year. I called the National Merit Corp over the summer and spoke with a supervisor who told me they were going to do that this year because otherwise, the integrity of the program would be cast into doubt. I responded that I thought that was unfair because students can take the SAT multiple times, but students who took the PSAT got only one bite at the apple. She basically replied that it was an imperfect resolution to an imperfect situation. The bottom line is they didn’t want there numbers to go down too much.
Thanks for the clarification, David. They really had no perfect solutions this year. It does mean that at least some SAT scores — those received post whatever deadline they used for cutoff calculation — were ignored. I imagine that most AE students, though, were anxious to submit their scores.