April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
​U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
​​Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
​​​Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Connecticut is out. My child scored 223. The individual students were asked to keep their selection confidential until official reports to the media are made on September 15th listing who made it. While the cutoff is unclear, my child’s school had 4 semi-finalists and this school usually only has 1 student who reaches that benchmark. It may be that this class is a particularly strong one, but the cutoff may be simply lower than usual. Notably, every student in CT had an in-school SAT day, so there may be a number of students who qualified that way. Given the administration of the in-school SAT statewide, the number of CT SAT test-takers is likely very close to previous years.
Elizabeth,
Congratulations to your student! Yes, I suspect that CT’s cutoff will come in just a bit lower.
224 index, Texas. Public school.
Waiting for official confirmation before clicking submit on applications. Don’t want to jump the gun and make it appear I lied on the app calling myself a semifinalist.
You’re certainly safe, but it’s probably a good idea to see it in black-and-white. Congratulations.
My son has a 223 SI in Texas. Would he be safe as well? Is there any word on SI in TX?
Yes, 223 is very safe in TX. I’ve heard reports of 219 on other sites.
I read on college confidential that KY has a max cutoff of 213. Is this true or confirmed?
Molly,
That would be based on a student report, which I’ve found reliable.
Just got my letter from my principal, max cutoff in Alabama is 214. I had a 215, but the lowest scorer that got NMSF at my school had a 214 SI.
Congratulations, Mason! I’ll update the post.
Is 214 confirmed? Unfortunately, my daughter has a 213 in Alabama. Thank you for the information.
Right now all I know is that a student with 214 qualified. We don’t yet know if the actual cutoff is lower.
Hello Art,
Do you know the cut off for Florida? Thank you
Patricia,
Florida came in at 217 this year.
Waiting to hear in Colorado. son got 222. Any word yet?
No word on CO, Vicky, but I certainly like the chances of a 222.
Also waiting on NY. My son had a 219 SSI, so he is on the bubble.
My child received her NMSF letter in Ohio with a score of 220. A friend of hers at the same school got a score of 215 or 216 and received a NMSF letter as well . Sorry that I can’t remember the exact number. I just know they were 4 or 5 points less on their selection index score than my daughter when they shared that info previously.
Congratulations to your student, Kay. I’ll mark that down as a <=216 with an asterisk. Thank you.
My daughters friend did indeed get semifinalist with an index score of 215 in Ohio. Confirmed it w/ her parent tonight for you.
Great! Thanks, Kay.
Hello! If it is possible could you try to find out what her friends score was. I have a 215 SI and am so nervous!
Thank you:)
Riya,
Kay confirmed the 215 with the parent as of this evening (9/1).
Any news on South Carolina?
Not yet, Sofia. Please let us know if you get word!
Hello Art, do you think a selection index of 219 will make the cutoff in Texas? I have seen multiple reports of 219 making it on other forums, so just wanted to ask you!
I have no reason to doubt those reports, but I don’t have any additional information.
Hey Art, do you think that 219 will make the cutoff in Texas? Thank you.
Mike,
I’ve seen the reports of 219 on other sites, but I don’t have any additional confirmation.
Made Semi-Finalist in DE with an index of 221.
Congratulations, Violet! Thank you for sharing the information.
My son received his letter today and he is at 223. This is for Ohio.
Congratulations to your son, Melissa. I’m glad to hear that schools are getting the word out (or even better if he is home schooled!).
Anything from Virginia yet? Son got a 221.
Not yet, VAMom.
The letter students are receiving today are coming from the school district and/or principals of the high schools, correct? Meaning some kids in PA might have gotten letters today and some might not have? I think my HS SR is safely about the PA cut line, but anxiously waiting for confirmation.
Yes, a packet of letters is mailed to each high school (or home school). It’s up to the school to decide how and when to get the letters to students. Practices vary widely.
Though I personally haven’t seen the letter, my college counselor informed me today to expect an email coming with information about how to proceed as a NM Semifinalist (as the school received the letters, and I guess they want to write some fancy stuff up before giving them to us). I got a 221 index score in NC, so I’m not sure about how useful this information is to you (I’d expect a 218 at best in NC), but I guess at least it’s some starting point.
Congratulations, Jonathan. Information is always helpful for those still waiting for confirmation from their schools.
HS Counselor in CO here–two of our students with a 217 qualified. A 215 did not qualify. No student at our school had an SI of 216.
Thank you, Linda. I’ll update the post to reflect 216 or 217 as the CO cutoff.
I have a semi finalist in Arkansas with a 212
Congratulations to your NMSF, Holly!. Updating the post now.
Principal confirmed NMSF status today! SI of 224 in MD! Cutoff is likely lower, but at least we know it isn’t above 224, fwiw 🙂
That was a pretty safe bet, but I’m glad your wait is over. Congratulations! Thank you.
Hello. What if a student took the PSAT at a school other than their own due to covid. She has an index that should meet California criteria but hasn’t heard anything yet. Is it possible it got sent to the school she took it at instead of her own? Thanks
TTT,
The school that a student attends would receive the information. It is not at all unusual for students to have not received word yet. Some schools wait until mid-September! I’d give it another week and then make a polite inquiry to the college counselor.
212 max confirmed KY score. My son received notice from his school.
Thanks, Vernon. Best of luck to your son on his Finalist application!
Hello, Mr. Sawyer –
Any news on the cutoff for Iowa?
Deb,
I don’t have any direct reports.
Hi Art,
Thank you so much for these updates! I see your list includes Missouri <=215. I didn't see any comments from Missouri, so I assume you learned this from a different credible source? My D22 has a 218 and I'm on pins & needles. Thanks again.
JilliO,
It came from an earlier comment by a parent reporting on a Reddit post, so I don’t have independent confirmation. Can’t imagine that MO is setting new highs this year, so 218 seems solid. I know that probably doesn’t remove the pins or the needles. Good luck!
Hi, Art,
My student in Nebraska got his letter today. He had a 216 and thinks the cut off was 211.
Congratulations to your student! I’ve updated the post with his information.
Hi Art,
Is there only one report to your knowledge that the CA cutoff is not 220? I ask because there’s conflicting information on student forums.
That’s right, Frances. I’ll be all too happy to correct it if it’s incorrect.