April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Received Semi Finalist notification in Arizona with a 221
Congratulations to you and your student, and thanks for sharing!
Hi! Do you know if that was the cutoff?
Art,
Is it possible that there is some differentiation between PSAT SI and Alt Entry SI this year? Or difference in SI based on Verbal/Math SI combination this year?
I know it sounds crazy, but I am seeing conflicting information for 220 CA, 219 TX and 215 OH on other sites.
Has misinformation been normal early on (in prior years)?
Mina,
The SI calculation is sacrosanct, so I’m sure that’s not the issue. It’s not impossible that NMSC decided to distinguish between PSAT SI and AE SI, but it’s a stretch. SAT scores don’t come with a nice Selection Index tab, so it’s also possible that some AE reporters have miscalculated their SIs. Things are always coming fast and furious around this time, so conflicting information is not that unusual. I’m a broken record on the topic, but I wish National Merit would join the 21st century and notify students electronically.
Do you know of people that got in with 220 in CA
Aaron,
I do not. So far I’ve had the report of a student missing out at 220.
Was this AE or PSAT? I think from the conflicting information it might be reasonable that they distinguished.
Hi, Art. Chances for a 221 in TX? Heard nothing yet. I hear that a 219 made it on some sites, but I hear that a 219 did not make it on other sites. On pins and needles!
I wish we had something definitive. Based on some of the reports out of high-cutoff states, I think you’re solid with a 221 in Texas.
How about 220 in TX
I’ve seen mixed reports elsewhere about Texas. A 220 is still on the bubble.
I got the letter. PSAT@220.
That’s great news, Bryan. Thanks for the confirmation.
One of my friends made it (confirmed) with a 221 in Texas
Thanks, AM!
To give you a start on Washington, a 222 was confirmed as SF today for my friend’s kiddo.
Thank you for passing that along, Shannon.
Anything about Michigan yet?
Nothing directly, Jakub.
Have you heard anything from MN? My son is a 221. His school hasn’t heard which I think is a bad sign.
Not directly. A state hitting a new record in a rough year would be a very unusual circumstance. A school not yet receiving NM information or having it in the wrong person’s mailbox, on the other hand, is almost standard operating procedure at this time of year. Don’t let the anxiety win!
Do we have a rough estimate of how many Semifinalists there are this year, with all the Alternate Entrants?
Russ,
Since NMSC used Alternate Entry SAT scores in calculating cutoffs (see Comment above yours), the total number of SFs will probably not change much. I’d estimate 16,500 – 17,000. Their letters refer to 16,000, but they are infamous for using round and outdated numbers in those circumstances. In any event, no substantial change.
Thanks Art!
Two things:
1. I’m not sure which comment you’re referring, could you point it out?
2. I thought that Alternate Entry scores were typically not used to determine cutoffs? Has this changed? I expected far more than 16-17,000 Semifinalists this year, so am surprised to hear this.
Russ,
The threading on this blog is horrible, sorry. It’s from David at 6:07am today. You are correct that AE scores were not *typically* used to determine cutoffs. Apparently NMSC decided that keeping that policy in such an atypical year would lead to crazy anomalies (I’ve previously written about the ridiculous cutoffs it would have created in California, for instance). So AE scores were considered in calculating cutoffs.
Has there been any information on the maine cutoff.
Nothing. Sorry, Kai.
Art,
My son qualified from Kansas with 217. Don’t know the score of other Kids who qualified from his school
Congratulations to your con, Anu. I just got a separate report of a 215 qualifying in Kansas, too.
Hi Art. 215 qualified in Kansas.
Thanks, Kevin! I imagine congratulations are in order.
I can confirm that 215 qualifies in KS, but I don’t believe a 213 did, so it should be 214-215.
Thank you, Lincoln.
Any updates this morning? Specifically looking for information on Indiana. Thanks so much!
Mindi,
I’ve seen reports of 211 elsewhere on the web, but I don’t have any direct reports.
Thank you. Sitting at 213 over here. I guess we will keep hope for a little longer 🙂 Much appreciated.
How likely is it that Missouri will fall to a 214 cutoff? It is currently estimated at 215 and I scored a 214.
Kyle,
215 is already low for Missouri, but I’d hold out hope.
My California student with a 221 was notified yesterday that she made SF. Curiously, the same day we received a recruitment mailer from U. of Oklahoma targeted to parents of Semi-Finalists. How is it that they knew before we did?
Parent,
Congratulations! And thanks for confirming that 221 qualified in CA. College Board typically sells lists based on score breaks and not on NM status. It’s possible that NMSC sells the list to Oklahoma, but it’s also possible that Oklahoma is simply buying a cross-section of names at >1450 (or similar).
How likely is NJ at 222? I saw one reddit post claiming he got notified with a 221 index, but nothing more.
I saw that, too, njparent. I don’t know any more information than you do. If correct, it’s pretty important, since NJ has traditionally set the high-water mark for the country. I’d be cautiously optimistic at 222.
Many many schools here cancelled the psat, so I do think a drop is possible. Depends how alternate entry ended up being treated.
Son got his letter today. 222 qualified for NMSF in NJ.
Congratulations, NJP! If your son has any friends with 220s or 221s, please encourage them to stop by with news.
Hi Art,
This is just a clarification, but Puerto Rico is considered a territory right? I have a 216 SI so I can’t afford to have it considered outside of US. Thanks!
Ross,
That’s right. And you’ll qualify as a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
I’m a little confused why people are comparing this year’s cutoffs with Class of 2021 cutoffs since you’ve methodically shown that the Class of 2021 cutoffs were outliers or anomalies. Shouldn’t we be comparing this year’s cutoffs with Class of 2020 or Class of 2019 cutoffs (or some kind of average)? My prediction is that most state cutoffs will be one point less (or more) than the Class of 2020 cutoffs. Given that logic, what are the odds that Texas will come in at 220? Thanks.
Nascil,
You make a good point. It’s natural, though, for people to have a “recency bias” and think about the most recent set of cutoffs. The fact is that any comparison is a shot in the dark this year. The word unprecedented gets overused, but I think a year when there is a January PSAT and NMSC has to change their rules about Alternate Entry can safely be called unprecedented. That’s why I’m hesitant to lay odds for or against a score close to the bubble. Hopefully we find out soon enough.
Hello Art!
What is the Ohio cutoff and how accurate do you think it is. Should I hold up hope if I have a 215 SI?
Thanks!
Riya,
Based on reports, the Ohio cutoff is 215 or lower. Those reports usually prove accurate, so I’d be cautiously optimistic!
Art,
Thank you so much for your updates. My so.n qualified with a 223 in TX. We just received an email from the school.
Congratulations to your son, TM!
What are the chances a 219 qualifies in Georgia?
Abhinav,
There is not a lot to go on at this point. I think GA is likely to end up at 219 or 220. Good luck!
Do you see Kansas dropping to 213? It would be a one point drop from last year so would it be potentially feasible?
Nate,
Yes, I think it’s possible.
Should I still maintain some hope for 220 in CA. Some have stated they got it, others said no they haven’t got anything.
Steve,
Do you mean “got it” in that they received an NMSF letter with a 220 score or do you just mean that some California students have already received notifications? I haven’t personally heard of the former, but that’s not to say it didn’t happen. I’d hold out hope until we get more clarity!
I’ve heard that 220 qualified based on home school letter from the same dude that leaked 217 of Florida but I haven’t heard back from the parent who said 220 didn’t make it. The same person that said 220 here, also said on college confidential and Reddit. I’ve contacted them for answers but haven’t received anything
Thanks, Steve. I’m going to update the post with some of this information.
Hello Art,
I also have a quick question on California. I see ‘California 221 or 222’ instead of ‘<=222'. Is there any specific reason? Thanks!
Anon,
I got a report from a student (parent) with a 220 who did not qualify. I’m adjusting the post so as not to be misleading. Hopefully we hear from more Californians.
John,
My info comes from a school that may have had no one with a 218, so it’s possible the reports of a 218 qualifying are correct.
Texas is confirmed 220.
Thanks, Anon. That will be a relief to many.
Mississippi – semifinalist status is above 212 (so 213 or above). One person reported being confirmed as to not getting it while having a 212.
Reported on r/psat
Thanks!
So is 213 still in play
Hi Art, seems weird that CA, with the most number of SF hasn’t leaked more – is this your experience? Do you have a lot of confirmations of that 222 and we are just hoping for a 221 to pop up (we are, LOL!) I can’t see the message about them adding the AE for finalist number but am wondering if that, too, is confirmed? Thanks so much
It’s frustrating — especially since I live in California — but not that unusual. No, there is nothing to make me think it’s 222. In fact, there are conflicting reports even about 220. We may just have to wait a bit longer.