April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
A North Carolina student has reported a qualifying 219.
Thank you, Bob!
Hi Art – thank you for all of the information! Question – has PA been confirmed for 218? I note the change on your list but that there is still a notation about 219 above?
“Confirmed” is a loose term at this stage in the process. The original information came from a counselor who had a qualifier at 219 but may not have had a student with a 218. I received a report from a student qualifying at 218, so I think we’re at <=218. I just deleted the old language.
I’m from MS, and I and another from my school qualified with a 214 :D. The next closest was a 209 I think, so no real help on the cutoff.
Congratulations to you and your classmate!
Anymore info on MS
Confirmed at 213 Mgm.
Was the California rumor of 220 not making it confirmed by other people as well. So far I know of one person who claimed that but don’t see other comments. At least with Texas, many people stepped up and backed up the new 220 score cutoff. Waiting on a reliable source to confirm whether or not 220 made It or not.
No, it has not been further confirmed. I’ll add the caveats to the post. I agree that it would be nice to get more reports.
What are your thoughts on the debate of 220 vs 221? Trying to get additional insight. Thanks as always!
Sorry to be wishy-washy, but my thoughts are that I’d like to get some definitive information.
Received Semi Finalist confirmation from Alabama with a 213.
Congratulations to your student!
Any news on VA cutoff ? Thanks
r/psat had an early report of a 219 cutoff, but I haven’t seen anything to confirm or deny.
Thank you! This is such a relief to hear because my daughter has a 213, but her school hasn’t released any information yet.
My son was notified by his school that he’s a semi-finalist in South Carolina with a 216. Anecdotally, one of his friends who is also a semi-finalist here has said that he had a 215 (just word of mouth on that score, though).
Thanks, CD! Congratulations to your son.
What is Ohios SI and how did you get that number?
Also, why are the semifinalist numbers fluctuating between increasing and decreasing for most of the states?
Thank you so so grateful!
OH Parent,
In most cases, the upper bounds of cutoffs come from student reports. An Ohio student reported qualifying at 215, so the cutoff should be <=215. Cutoffs fluctuate regularly because each state's cutoff is completely independent. Sometimes states have more participants one year than next. Or an important feeder drops the PSAT. Or the state just has a weak class. Keep in mind that many of the "cutoffs" are simply maximums at this point and not the final cutoffs.
received a semifinalist notification with a 225 in illinois, which isn’t too helpful for guessing cut-offs, but haha.
Yeah, I don’t think there were too many 225s losing sleep over the cutoff! Great job. It’s always nice to actually get the notification.
Any update on semifinal index cutoff for Maryland?
Are all principals notified even if a student doesn’t make semifinalist or only if the make cutoff?
I haven’t seen anything, Bill. I believe that packets only go to schools with NMSFs. Commended letters go out later.
Thanks, Art. Truly appreciate your response.
We are also in Maryland and haven’t heard anything … the waiting is killing us! Wondering if mail is slower in Maryland, or Principles have been instructed not to release early (both benign reasons) or if so many AEs have delayed MD reporting (not so benign!). It doesn’t really seem likely that NMSC would release some states but not others though, right?
The mail goes out at the same time, but keep in mind that MD is not a large state. We’re still in the dark about NY, so it’s not all that surprising that we don’t have confirmation on Maryland.
Am curious: If student is an alternative entry (took SAT last Oct. and scored 1580 on it) – no PSATs due to Covid – will student get letter now along with the rest of the semifinalists or does that come later? Are there some states where no PSATs were administered?
MP,
In most cases, yes. If a student applied and got scores to NM promptly, they should be on the initial lists. If they submitted scores after NM’s internal deadline (which I don’t know), they’ll eventually be notified.
I believe every state had at least some PSAT administrations. The cancellation decisions were made at the school and district level.
When do you estimate results will officially be released? P.S. anything about Illinois yet?
Dan,
Results aren’t officially released in the classic sense. NMSC does not publicly post cutoffs. It sends the names of Semifinalists to schools and to media outlets. In the case of the latter, it embargoes the information until 9/15. But there is no requirement for media outlets to publish the information. Every year there are still students trying to track down their status, even after the end of the embargo.
Still no news on NY? Does news from NY come slower than other states typically?
Information does seem to come out slowly in NY each year. I don’t if it’s because of the concentration of NMSFs in NYC magnets or just coincidence.
I can confirm the Mississippi cutoff is at most 213, as that’s what my SI was and I recently got notified that I qualified for Semifinalist status
Congratulations, Ray! I just received additional news of 213 in MS.
Just got confirmation from the school counselor that my D22 qualified as a NMSF with a 218 in Missouri! The school is not planning to tell the kids until 9/15, though.
Congratulations, Jill! Yes, some schools take the cautious approach of waiting until the press release deadline.
Hey Art! I noticed that you removed the asterisk from TX. Have you received more confirmation that it is <=220? Thanks so much!
Received a report of a 220 qualifying, so I decided to remove the asterisk.
If you are a semifinalist with a n index score of 220, is a 1470 SAT score high enough for a confining score. I’m a little confused about that.
Thank you
Amanda,
The confirming score is set nationally and usually is at or near the Commended level (using the SAT score to produce an SI). Yes, 1470 will be high enough. There are more details on our National Merit FAQ page.
HI, Has anyone heard for sure that a confirming score will or will not be required this year, since was not required for 2021? Does the confirming score change state to state, or student to student, or is there be one confirming score for the whole country? Daughter looks to be 2 pts above NMSF threshold for our state, but only took ACT once end of 10th grade. She is signed up to take both ACT and SAT in October, but not sure if needed, and already stressful enough with 5 AP classes.
thank you.
M of S,
The confirming score is a national figure for all students. It is generally set at the Commended level, but NMSC does not officially state that, so theoretically has some discretion. I recommend that students try to clear the threshold by a few points, so a 210 SAT/ACT Selection Index this year. See more information here about converting the ACT components to a Selection Index.
thanks, she’s at a 208 if I’m doing the calculations right. Are they taking ACT’s new “superscoring” into account this year? Just curious.
They’ve never superscored, so I really doubt that they’ll start now. I would give NMSC a call. They are usually more forthcoming after the 9/15 press release, but the worst they can do is say no.
Hi Art,
Legally speaking, are public schools bound to secrecy till Sept 15th? Can a counselor or principal tell a student if they qualify or not for SF in strict confidence prior to Sept 15th? What authority does a private entity like NMC have that overrides a student’s privileges or immunities granted in the 14th amendment? All other College Board data go through the student- why should this competition be any different? If some students are notified earlier like homeschoolers, don’t they have more time to prepare application material (like essays) for the Finalist competition? Sorry for all the questions- this whole process has taken a toll on me!
The request is that they not release the information beyond notifying the student and counselor. Some schools still like to wait until the press release deadline (or are mistaken in believing that they must wait). Some schools, for example, have NMSFs pose for a picture or publish something on the school’s socials. For that, they are supposed to wait until 9/15. I know of no penalty beyond a wrist slap. College Board is not directly involved with NM selection or notification, and NMSC still prefers to work with the schools (since there is also eligibility information that needs to be confirmed). At the Finalist stage NM starts communicating directly with the student. The essay question has not changed in a number of years. I believe I have it on our FAQ page. It’s general enough to work with most Common App essay choices.
Hey Art! I noticed that yesterday the Texas cutoff of 220 hadF an asterisk next to it, but it has since been removed. Were you able to confirm this cutoff? Thanks in advance!
Faris,
It’s not confirmed as being 220, but with an additional report of a student qualifying at 220, I didn’t feel the need to leave an asterisk.
Oh awesome! That provides some relief, thank you!
Oklahoma cutoff confirmed at 210. Student with 209 was not a NMSF.
Thanks, MLCA. I’ve updated the post.
Art – what’s your source for NJ 222? Is that a =222 or <=222?
<=222. I received an NMSF report from a student with 222. Reddit had an early mention of 221, but I wanted to be conservative given that NJ is usually the highest cutoff.
Hi Art,
Just making sure– this means that you know for a fact someone from NJ with a 222 made semifinalist?
As long as if by “fact” we accept that it’s a report from a student on the internet. Considering that there has been a report of 221 elsewhere, I think the 222 figure is conservative.
Hi! Do you know what the Illinois cutoff is likely to be?
Matthew.
I haven’t received any direct reports, but I believe r/psat has had a student reporting qualifying at 221. That means IL would come in <=221.
Art – I have a data point about a NY student qualifying with a 220.
Thanks, ATTABOY! I’m sure there are some NY students who will be happy to hear the news.
Hi! I was just notified by my school that I am a National Merit Semifinalist. (Score: 221, State: CT) And thank you for collating this data.
Congratulations, Natalie! I’m away from my computer, but I’ll update the post with your information.
Hi Art, Do you have cutoff information for Massachusetts ? Thanks.
Nothing on MA. My guess is that it’s going to come in between 220 and 222, with a “most likely” at 221.
MA Dad,
I answered too quickly. I just got an email from a parent with a student (and friends) qualifying at 221. So we’re officially at <=221. [And a thank you to that parent!]
Qualified in Illinois with a 219. Thanks for keeping track and for the great information you provide!
Congratulations to your student, VHP! Glad to hear that 219 made it. Thank you.