April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Any word on cutoff for Arizona?
No reports yet.
Art,
Thanks for ALL the information! Sitting LA with a 216 and wondering are WE usually lagging behind as a state with release of scores???
Cajun,
Sometimes it’s just dumb luck, since it’s a combination of someone getting notified quickly, having a score in a “helpful” range, and wanting to share the news.
216 made it in LA!
Congratulations, RC!
Thank you, and thanks for ALL your efforts to provide information!!!
Hi,
I’m just checking how you heard about TN? I got a 216 and want to just make sure I made that 215 mark.
Maya,
I received a report on a student qualifying at 215, so you should be safe at 216. Congratulations in advance!
How did you hear about Mississippi? I have a 216 and haven’t heard anything from my school yet
Clark,
It was from a student who reported qualifying. I’d be surprised if the cutoff in Mississippi isn’t even lower. It’s not unusual for students to still be waiting for confirmation from the school.
Thanks! Really hoping I made it
Is it possible that because of the fat distribution in CA some may have got in with 220 and others may have not? For instance, if they needed to include 220 to get past the 1600-2000 students they let in, but 220 actually included an excess amount of students. What does national merit do in this case? Do they go local and give select individuals the semi finalist status because they compared well in their area or???
No, cutoffs are all or nothing for a state. They try to get as close as possible to the target number.
Do you have any confirmation of a student making it with 220 in Ca? Is it possible that my son was accidentally left out by college board in the letters? I know that my son’s school wouldn’t make that mistake and since there are conflicting reports I’m trying to figure out how he would be left out.
Sonia,
Thanks for following up. As you’ve probably seen, there is a lot of angst about the 220/221 divide. The possibility that your son’s school overlooked a letter does seem remote. I assume that there were other NMSFs at the school.
A few ideas: Did your son take the Oct/Jan PSAT or did he enter via Alternate Entry? If the latter, did he get the paperwork done in time? Are you sure of his SI? If he took a PSAT, there is a section in his online score report with the Selection Index. Does the score report indicate that he is National Merit eligible (sometimes a class year is incorrect). If he entered via AE, do you know his breakdown on Math, Reading, and Writing (these are on 10-40 scales).
Thank you!
Hi Art,
Yes, he took the PSAT’s at his school in January and his selection instead is on the score report. 2 (37+37+36)=220 – Also checked the entry requirements on report and it says he does.
Thank you for your help in answering questions!
We’re trying to get confirmation from counselors. I want to hold out hope that there was a mistake until we hear otherwise. Thank you.
My student has a 215 in MI. What are the chances of making the cut 0ff? I do not see MI listed here
Ann,
I haven’t received any Michigan reports. I’ve seen elsewhere a report of a 218 qualifying, but that simply means the cutoff would be at 218 or below. There is still not enough information to know whether Michigan will drop to 215.
I heard from out school counselor that it is 217 for MI.
Thank you for passing this along, Ann.
Is there still a chance 219 will make the cut in New York?
NYP,
Yes. I haven’t seen any reports yet that rule out 219.
Art,
Any word on Virginia cut off score? Your prediction please?
Rheo,
I don’t have any student reports from Virginia. There was early word on r/psat of this year’s cutoff being 219. I just don’t have confirmation.
I have a feeling that Virginia is going to be high, perhaps 223 or 224. Each year, about 1/3 of Semifinalists come from a single high school (Thomas Jefferson HS for Science & Technology). Those kids almost certainly took the PSAT while, I’m guessing, the kids that didn’t take the PSAT come from more rural areas of VA. I think the scores are going to be seriously skewed.
Steve,
It doesn’t work that way. Virginia gets the same number of NMSFs if 10,000 students test or 100,000 students test. Taking kids out of testing can only lower (or leave unchanged) the cutoffs. The students at TJHSST with 223s and 224s have always made SF, and that will be true again this year. There is nothing that indicates a huge influx of new 223+ scorers in Virginia, and no reason to think VA will shake the trend of the top scoring states having modest cutoffs this year. I think it will be in the 219-221 range. If it hits 223, I’ll come out and wash your car or your dog. 😉
Thanks Art. That’s great to hear. My daughter is a 222 so perhaps we can start feeling good about her chances….
Also very impressed by the quick response. Very cool.
Thanks you.
Hi Art,
Many thanks for compiling all of this information. I’ve heard from multiple friends that 219 did not qualify in TX, but 220 did. Thanks so much!
Thanks, Jonathan. I’ve updated Texas as a 220 cutoff.
Hi Art,
I do not know this first hand but some kids in Missouri are getting word from their counselors that they qualify and they have a 214, so may be a good sign for those hoping Missouri didn’t increase from last year.
Thanks, Megan. Are you hearing this on one of the forums?
My daughter knows some kids at a school in the area that were notified and she knows some students with 214’s that were informed they qualified. No news of a 213 yet.
Thanks for the clarification, Megan.
Can you share your data from Massachusetts? Thanks so much for this resource!
Heather,
A parent emailed me: “…[son] was just notified that he was a semifinalist with a 221. So were two of his friends with the exact same PSAT score…”
Hi Art – How comfortable are you with Colorado at 216 or 217? My daughter has 219. Try not to get too excited just in case.
CM,
That information is based on student reports rather than information from a counselor, so there is always room for error. That said, I think it’s consistent with what we are seeing. Tentative congratulations!
Thank you!
Hey, thanks for this list. I just wanted to let you know that I was accepted as a semifinalist in Kentucky with an index score of 208. Hope this helps.
Congratulations, Matt! Let me know if you have any added details. I’ll likely be asked, because a 208 (or lower) cutoff for KY would represent a big change. Thanks.
Any news from Indiana? My student is on the borderline with a 214, fingers crossed!
I haven’t received anything directly. Some reports on the web would have your daughter qualifying.
My daughter was told she did not qualify this morning by her counselor. She was at 213 in Indiana. So it’s higher than 213… not sure that helps much. Good luck!
Congratulations on your daughter’s Commended status. Thank you for sharing the information about Indiana!
214 did not qualify in Indiana, heard from school today. 218 did qualify.
Thanks, Indymom. So we now know that Indiana is between 215 and 218.
What does the timeline look like for international students? I haven’t really seen much about international cutoffs or heard of any international students receiving a semi-finalist notification yet. Will a 224 cut it? Thanks in advance!
Adi,
The notifications go out at the same time, but they may take longer to get to international schools. The international cutoff is basically the highest state cutoff. This year it doesn’t look like that will go above 222. It certainly won’t go as high as 224, so you should be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hello,
I was wondering on how credible your reports were that 220 qualified for NMSC Semifinalist status in New York State. I myself got a 1480 (760 mathematics, 720 English) with a 220 index in New York State, so I was wondering whether these are confirmed or they are just Reddit comments and such. Additionally, is it true that to advance to Finalist status, the SAT/ACT scores should approximately confirm the respective PSAT scores by being at least equivalent to them (so for me, it would be a 1480 SAT or I suppose, a 32 to 33 ACT)?
Thanks.
UF,
I received a report from a student qualifying at 220. I believe there are also reports on Reddit. I’ll be sure to note further confirmation, but for now most of us are working off of student information. We won’t hear much over the long weekend.
No, that’s not correct about confirming scores. It’s a misleading name. The confirming score is a baseline level that all Finalist candidates must achieve and is usually set at the Commended level — 207 this year. There have been years where NMSC has set it just above the Commended level, I believe, so I’m recommending that students have at least a 210 SAT SI or ACT equivalent. The ACT conversion does not use the Composite score. For more information, see the Compass National Merit FAQ.
Can you share your data from New Jersey? Thanks for doing this!
Sam,
I had a student report of qualifying at 222. Reddit has had a student reporting 221, but I haven’t gone through all of the reddit reports yet and don’t want to mischaracterize anything.
Hey Art,
Did you have exact confirmation on 220 not making California? I’m currently sitting at a 220 right now and I’m really nervous about what is actually right-220 or 221.
I received a report from a student not qualifying at 220, but there is conflicting information elsewhere, so nothing is definite. Keep the faith!
What is r/psat? Any confirmation on California score yet? I asked my counselor on Friday and she doesn’t information yet.
No further info on California.
https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/
Hi Art,
Any official news on NJ? Will a 222 make it?
Thanks,
JJ
Nothing beyond the student reports. I don’t think there is any question that it’s going to be <=222. The only remaining question is whether or not it hits 221.
hello Art, I am a student from NJ with a 221 and I did not get the national merit semifinalist notification
Ryan,
Did you receive word from your school that you did not qualify, or do you mean that you just haven’t heard yet? Thank you for your help!
Art,
Is the amount of “early data” you are receiving less this year than in the past ? If so, is it perhaps because fewer students tested due to Covid cancellations? Did home school students have a more difficult time finding “in person” sites to test?
Thanks for all of your insights,
Melanie Sawyer
Melanie,
When depending on student reports, I’d say it’s about usual. We’ve been fortunate the last couple of years to eventually get counselor reports in large gulps (last year NMSC accidentally released the cutoffs on its website).
Any news from Ohio. I am at a 215 and am scared about qualifying and if i will.
OS,
From what I’ve heard, you’re safe. I know it’s nerve-wracking until you have paper in hand. Hopefully your school passes things along soon.
Is there any more information (even if unconfirmed) on Delaware? I have a SI of 220 and I’ve been refreshing this page constantly for the past few days hoping the cutoff will drop by just one more point.
Kemper,
It’s difficult to get data on small states such as Delaware. So far we only know — as you’ve seen — that it is <= 221.
Any information on Idaho?
Eileen,
Nothing yet.
HI- do you know how many test takers sat for the PSAT in Oct 2020 and Jan 2021 by state?
Curious,
Traditionally, College Board releases state-by-state numbers is the fall (October, I believe). There is a possibility that they’ll avoid doing so this year because of the dreadful SAT and PSAT figures. I highly doubt that they will break out October versus January. While interesting to testing geeks like me, the PSAT figures don’t tell us much about National Merit because of the way NMSC blended in Alternate Entry figures this year.
I have seen on another site that Georgia may be 219. What are your thoughts at this point?
Kevin,
I don’t have direct information of GA at 219, but I have no reason to doubt other reports.
Alabama official cutoff 212, have paper in hand
Thank you, Senior Mom!