Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Any word on cutoff for Arizona?
No reports yet.
Art,
Thanks for ALL the information! Sitting LA with a 216 and wondering are WE usually lagging behind as a state with release of scores???
Cajun,
Sometimes it’s just dumb luck, since it’s a combination of someone getting notified quickly, having a score in a “helpful” range, and wanting to share the news.
216 made it in LA!
Congratulations, RC!
Thank you, and thanks for ALL your efforts to provide information!!!
Hi,
I’m just checking how you heard about TN? I got a 216 and want to just make sure I made that 215 mark.
Maya,
I received a report on a student qualifying at 215, so you should be safe at 216. Congratulations in advance!
How did you hear about Mississippi? I have a 216 and haven’t heard anything from my school yet
Clark,
It was from a student who reported qualifying. I’d be surprised if the cutoff in Mississippi isn’t even lower. It’s not unusual for students to still be waiting for confirmation from the school.
Thanks! Really hoping I made it
Is it possible that because of the fat distribution in CA some may have got in with 220 and others may have not? For instance, if they needed to include 220 to get past the 1600-2000 students they let in, but 220 actually included an excess amount of students. What does national merit do in this case? Do they go local and give select individuals the semi finalist status because they compared well in their area or???
No, cutoffs are all or nothing for a state. They try to get as close as possible to the target number.
Do you have any confirmation of a student making it with 220 in Ca? Is it possible that my son was accidentally left out by college board in the letters? I know that my son’s school wouldn’t make that mistake and since there are conflicting reports I’m trying to figure out how he would be left out.
Sonia,
Thanks for following up. As you’ve probably seen, there is a lot of angst about the 220/221 divide. The possibility that your son’s school overlooked a letter does seem remote. I assume that there were other NMSFs at the school.
A few ideas: Did your son take the Oct/Jan PSAT or did he enter via Alternate Entry? If the latter, did he get the paperwork done in time? Are you sure of his SI? If he took a PSAT, there is a section in his online score report with the Selection Index. Does the score report indicate that he is National Merit eligible (sometimes a class year is incorrect). If he entered via AE, do you know his breakdown on Math, Reading, and Writing (these are on 10-40 scales).
Thank you!
Hi Art,
Yes, he took the PSAT’s at his school in January and his selection instead is on the score report. 2 (37+37+36)=220 – Also checked the entry requirements on report and it says he does.
Thank you for your help in answering questions!
We’re trying to get confirmation from counselors. I want to hold out hope that there was a mistake until we hear otherwise. Thank you.
My student has a 215 in MI. What are the chances of making the cut 0ff? I do not see MI listed here
Ann,
I haven’t received any Michigan reports. I’ve seen elsewhere a report of a 218 qualifying, but that simply means the cutoff would be at 218 or below. There is still not enough information to know whether Michigan will drop to 215.
I heard from out school counselor that it is 217 for MI.
Thank you for passing this along, Ann.
Is there still a chance 219 will make the cut in New York?
NYP,
Yes. I haven’t seen any reports yet that rule out 219.
Art,
Any word on Virginia cut off score? Your prediction please?
Rheo,
I don’t have any student reports from Virginia. There was early word on r/psat of this year’s cutoff being 219. I just don’t have confirmation.
I have a feeling that Virginia is going to be high, perhaps 223 or 224. Each year, about 1/3 of Semifinalists come from a single high school (Thomas Jefferson HS for Science & Technology). Those kids almost certainly took the PSAT while, I’m guessing, the kids that didn’t take the PSAT come from more rural areas of VA. I think the scores are going to be seriously skewed.
Steve,
It doesn’t work that way. Virginia gets the same number of NMSFs if 10,000 students test or 100,000 students test. Taking kids out of testing can only lower (or leave unchanged) the cutoffs. The students at TJHSST with 223s and 224s have always made SF, and that will be true again this year. There is nothing that indicates a huge influx of new 223+ scorers in Virginia, and no reason to think VA will shake the trend of the top scoring states having modest cutoffs this year. I think it will be in the 219-221 range. If it hits 223, I’ll come out and wash your car or your dog. 😉
Thanks Art. That’s great to hear. My daughter is a 222 so perhaps we can start feeling good about her chances….
Also very impressed by the quick response. Very cool.
Thanks you.
Hi Art,
Many thanks for compiling all of this information. I’ve heard from multiple friends that 219 did not qualify in TX, but 220 did. Thanks so much!
Thanks, Jonathan. I’ve updated Texas as a 220 cutoff.
Hi Art,
I do not know this first hand but some kids in Missouri are getting word from their counselors that they qualify and they have a 214, so may be a good sign for those hoping Missouri didn’t increase from last year.
Thanks, Megan. Are you hearing this on one of the forums?
My daughter knows some kids at a school in the area that were notified and she knows some students with 214’s that were informed they qualified. No news of a 213 yet.
Thanks for the clarification, Megan.
Can you share your data from Massachusetts? Thanks so much for this resource!
Heather,
A parent emailed me: “…[son] was just notified that he was a semifinalist with a 221. So were two of his friends with the exact same PSAT score…”
Hi Art – How comfortable are you with Colorado at 216 or 217? My daughter has 219. Try not to get too excited just in case.
CM,
That information is based on student reports rather than information from a counselor, so there is always room for error. That said, I think it’s consistent with what we are seeing. Tentative congratulations!
Thank you!
Hey, thanks for this list. I just wanted to let you know that I was accepted as a semifinalist in Kentucky with an index score of 208. Hope this helps.
Congratulations, Matt! Let me know if you have any added details. I’ll likely be asked, because a 208 (or lower) cutoff for KY would represent a big change. Thanks.
Any news from Indiana? My student is on the borderline with a 214, fingers crossed!
I haven’t received anything directly. Some reports on the web would have your daughter qualifying.
My daughter was told she did not qualify this morning by her counselor. She was at 213 in Indiana. So it’s higher than 213… not sure that helps much. Good luck!
Congratulations on your daughter’s Commended status. Thank you for sharing the information about Indiana!
214 did not qualify in Indiana, heard from school today. 218 did qualify.
Thanks, Indymom. So we now know that Indiana is between 215 and 218.
What does the timeline look like for international students? I haven’t really seen much about international cutoffs or heard of any international students receiving a semi-finalist notification yet. Will a 224 cut it? Thanks in advance!
Adi,
The notifications go out at the same time, but they may take longer to get to international schools. The international cutoff is basically the highest state cutoff. This year it doesn’t look like that will go above 222. It certainly won’t go as high as 224, so you should be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hello,
I was wondering on how credible your reports were that 220 qualified for NMSC Semifinalist status in New York State. I myself got a 1480 (760 mathematics, 720 English) with a 220 index in New York State, so I was wondering whether these are confirmed or they are just Reddit comments and such. Additionally, is it true that to advance to Finalist status, the SAT/ACT scores should approximately confirm the respective PSAT scores by being at least equivalent to them (so for me, it would be a 1480 SAT or I suppose, a 32 to 33 ACT)?
Thanks.
UF,
I received a report from a student qualifying at 220. I believe there are also reports on Reddit. I’ll be sure to note further confirmation, but for now most of us are working off of student information. We won’t hear much over the long weekend.
No, that’s not correct about confirming scores. It’s a misleading name. The confirming score is a baseline level that all Finalist candidates must achieve and is usually set at the Commended level — 207 this year. There have been years where NMSC has set it just above the Commended level, I believe, so I’m recommending that students have at least a 210 SAT SI or ACT equivalent. The ACT conversion does not use the Composite score. For more information, see the Compass National Merit FAQ.
Can you share your data from New Jersey? Thanks for doing this!
Sam,
I had a student report of qualifying at 222. Reddit has had a student reporting 221, but I haven’t gone through all of the reddit reports yet and don’t want to mischaracterize anything.
Hey Art,
Did you have exact confirmation on 220 not making California? I’m currently sitting at a 220 right now and I’m really nervous about what is actually right-220 or 221.
I received a report from a student not qualifying at 220, but there is conflicting information elsewhere, so nothing is definite. Keep the faith!
What is r/psat? Any confirmation on California score yet? I asked my counselor on Friday and she doesn’t information yet.
No further info on California.
https://www.reddit.com/r/psat/
Hi Art,
Any official news on NJ? Will a 222 make it?
Thanks,
JJ
Nothing beyond the student reports. I don’t think there is any question that it’s going to be <=222. The only remaining question is whether or not it hits 221.
hello Art, I am a student from NJ with a 221 and I did not get the national merit semifinalist notification
Ryan,
Did you receive word from your school that you did not qualify, or do you mean that you just haven’t heard yet? Thank you for your help!
Art,
Is the amount of “early data” you are receiving less this year than in the past ? If so, is it perhaps because fewer students tested due to Covid cancellations? Did home school students have a more difficult time finding “in person” sites to test?
Thanks for all of your insights,
Melanie Sawyer
Melanie,
When depending on student reports, I’d say it’s about usual. We’ve been fortunate the last couple of years to eventually get counselor reports in large gulps (last year NMSC accidentally released the cutoffs on its website).
Any news from Ohio. I am at a 215 and am scared about qualifying and if i will.
OS,
From what I’ve heard, you’re safe. I know it’s nerve-wracking until you have paper in hand. Hopefully your school passes things along soon.
Is there any more information (even if unconfirmed) on Delaware? I have a SI of 220 and I’ve been refreshing this page constantly for the past few days hoping the cutoff will drop by just one more point.
Kemper,
It’s difficult to get data on small states such as Delaware. So far we only know — as you’ve seen — that it is <= 221.
Any information on Idaho?
Eileen,
Nothing yet.
HI- do you know how many test takers sat for the PSAT in Oct 2020 and Jan 2021 by state?
Curious,
Traditionally, College Board releases state-by-state numbers is the fall (October, I believe). There is a possibility that they’ll avoid doing so this year because of the dreadful SAT and PSAT figures. I highly doubt that they will break out October versus January. While interesting to testing geeks like me, the PSAT figures don’t tell us much about National Merit because of the way NMSC blended in Alternate Entry figures this year.
I have seen on another site that Georgia may be 219. What are your thoughts at this point?
Kevin,
I don’t have direct information of GA at 219, but I have no reason to doubt other reports.
Alabama official cutoff 212, have paper in hand
Thank you, Senior Mom!